基于DEMATEL-ISM的采空区稳定性影响因素研究*苑东亮，贺琳，任连伟，田道坡，顿志林（河南理工大学土木工程学院，河南焦作454003）摘要：为提高采空区稳定性风险管理水平，针对采空区的复杂性和不确定性特点，从采空区自身条件、水文地质和环境3个维度提取25个指标，建立采空区稳定性影响因素指标体系；运用决策实验室分析法（DEMATEL），研究影响因素之间的交互耦合作用，计算影响因素的中心度和原因度，识别出关键因素；进一步利用解释结构模型（ISM）划分因素的层次结构，构建多级递阶结构模型。结果表明：深厚比、顶板岩性和地质构造是采空区稳定性的主要影响因素；采动程度、顶板暴露面积和矿柱比值是采空区稳定性的直接致因；岩体基本质量是采空区稳定性的本质致因，其余因素为过渡致因，对本质致因须加强预防和管控。关键词：采空区；稳定性；DEMATEL；ISM；影响因素中图分类号：TD325文献标志码：A文章编号：1008－8725（2023）02－005－04StudyonInfluencingFactorsofGoafStabilityBasedonDEMATEL-ISMYUANDongliang,HELin,RENLianwei,TIANDaopo,DUNZhilin(CollegeofCivilEngineering,HenanPolytechnicUniversity,Jiaozuo454003,China)Abstract：Inordertoimprovetheriskmanagementlevelofgoafstability,accordingtothecomplexityanduncertaintycharacteristicsofgoaf,25indexesareextractedfromthreedimensionsofgoafconditions,hydrogeologyandenvironment,andtheindexsystemofinfluencingfactorsofgoafstabilityisestablished.TheDEMATELmethodisusedtostudytheinteractionbetweentheinfluencingfactors,andthecentralityandcausalityoftheinfluencingfactorsarecalculatedtoidentifythekeyfactors.Furthermore,thehierarchicalstructureoffactorsisdividedbasedonISM,andamulti-levelhierarchicalstructuremodelisestablished.Theresultsshowthatdepth-thicknessratio,rooflithologyandgeologicalstructurearethemaininfluencingfactorsofgoafstability.Miningdegree,roofexposureareaandpillarratioarethedirectcausesofgoafstability.Basicqualityofrockistheessentialcauseofgoafstability,andtheremainingfactorsaretransitionalcauses.Thepreventionandcontrolofessentialcausesmustbestrengthened.Keywords:goaf;stability;DEMATEL;ISM;influencingfactor第42卷第02期2023年02月煤炭技术CoalTechnologyVol.42No.02Feb.2023doi:10...
