30国内外极地海冰业务化预报系统概述刘娜梁曦*李明田忠翔赵福孙启振李宝辉（国家海洋环境预报中心北京100081）摘要：在全球气候变暖和北极海冰快速减少背景下，极地海冰预报发挥着越来越重要的作用。提高极地海冰预报能力是极区船只航行以及极区能源开发与保护等许多领域和方面的重要保障。近年来，各国发展并建立极地海冰预报系统，极地海冰业务化预报取得了显著进展。通过对海冰数值动力模拟进行模型开发、检验和验证，使模式结果不断向观测值靠拢，以实现灵活、强大的海冰模拟的目标，提高对极地海冰演化的预测。我国的极地海冰业务化预报系统在准实时同化海冰密集度和海冰厚度的基础上，实现了卫星观测海洋表面温度数据的融合，解决了极区观测变量数据同化技术中海冰－海洋界面物质和能量的协同调整的难题，为极地科考和商业航行提供更精细化、更准确的海冰预报服务能力。文中简要介绍国内外极地海冰业务化预报系统的现状，并展望了未来发展的难点与问题。关键词：极地；海冰；业务化预报系统中图分类号：P731.32文献标志码：ADOI：10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2023.01.030OverviewofOperationalNumericalForecastingSystemsforPolarSeaIceLIUNaLIANGXi*LIMingTIANZhongxiangZHAOFuSUNQizhenLIBaohui(NationalMarineEnvironmentalForecastingCenter,Beijing100081,China)Abstract:UnderthebackgroundofglobalwarmingandrapidreductionoftheArcticseaice,polarseaiceforecastingisplayinganincreasinglyimportantrole.Improvingtheabilityofpolarseaiceforecastingisanimportantguaranteeforpolarshipnavigation,polarenergydevelopmentandprotection.Inrecentyears,somecountrieshavedevelopedandestablishedpolarseaiceforecastingsystems,andtheoperationalforecastingofpolarseaicehasadvancedsubstantially.Bydeveloping,testingandverifyingthenumericalsolutionofseaicedynamicsandthermodynamics,themodelpredictionsareincreasinglyclosetotheobservedvalues,soastoachievethegoalofflexibleandpowerfulseaicesimulationandprediction.AimedattimelyandaccuratepolarseaiceforecastsforChineseNationalArctic/AntarcticResearchExpeditionandArcticcommercialnavigation,theoperationalpolarseaiceforecastingsystemsintheNationalMarineEnvironmentalForecastingCenterofChinaassimilatethesatellite-observednear-real-timeseaiceconc...
