Kantar-快速消费品脉冲（英）-2023-WN5.pdf

FMCG PulseMarch 2023群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料Looking forwardRural was dominating in the?rst half of the year.That was when uncertainty was at the highest.Some time in May,the Government even banned the exports of wheat,so everybody had expected Rural to struggle but then during the period between April and August of 2022,wheat exports had doubled 43.5 MT vs.20.07 MT in the previous year.The reason for that is because the ban was not on consignments already registered before 13th May.The global supply crunch created by the war had caused many contracts to fall to India,and all those contracts signed before the ban was made But as in?ation remained kept hovering around the 7%mark,Rural started to feel the heat.The surplus monies were drying up;costs had remained reasonably high and that meant the rural markets started to take a step back and the Urban consumer who was now getting to terms with the in?ationary scenario took the growth baton from the Rural consumer.o?cial,had to be honored.Which is why,despite an active ban,exports more than doubled during that period.That meant that the farmer had made more and not less despite the ban.The tug of warThe year 2022 was supposed to be a reset year,when the economy would?nd its feet again to run and the consumer taking advantage of that thriving and open economy.But like the past few years,we were again reminded of the unpredictability that encompasses us.What was supposed to be a dash towards strong growth numbers transformed into a crawl.But even with that crawl,we are at last looking at some positive numbers as we look to recover in 2023.MAT January 2023 FMCG volume is just 0.54%ahead of the previous year.FMCG volume is a product of Population and Consumption.And the population was growing at nearly 2.7%in the year.Therefore,whatever growth we had seen in FMCG volume was purely population driven.In fact,FMCG consumption has dropped by 2.9KGs in the year.We know that a big part of this struggle is because the purchases of Atta declined as free wheat was disbursed by the Government even after removing Atta from FMCG,the growth was at 2.4%still lower than the population growth.But the?rst quarter in this period was much worse.Feb-April 22 was 0%growth,with a consumption de?cit of 3.2 KGs.But as the year progressed,we saw growth returning.FMCG isnt consumption positive yet,so there is yet a way to go to call this a complete recovery,but we are de?nitely on the path to it.#SnackingWithout a doubt,the sector that bene?tted out of the pandemic was snacking.Even after the economy opened up the sectors growth kept pace,until a few months ago.We do observe a slowdown in the category which will only be accentuated in 2023.Just to put things in perspective the monthly growth that was at 13.4%in Feb 22 was at 6.9%in Jan 23.So,after a run of nearly three years,2023 will be the year where in-home snacking could slowdown.We dont really see it turning negative,but sub 3%growths are likely to be seen in the sector.#Home HygieneHome hygiene only managed a 0.6%growth in MAT Jan 23.Swacch Bharat had boosted awareness and importance which was accelerated by the pandemic.But many of those who entered through unbranded and proxy products into the category during the pandemic did not return to buy those products after the pandemic,and the sector has since struggled to rebound.The only performing category in the sector is Utensil Cleaners the other surface cleaners categories are having a rough time;and their rough times are expected to continue into 2023 though with a slight improvement over 2022.2022 was a fresh lease of life for the sector.The sector grew by 47%in the year ending Jan 23,but it was signi?cantly front loaded.The second half of the year was underwhelming,especially with the last quarter losing volumes.So,the normalization had already occurred for this category.Given that 2023 is hard to predict.Last year,during our backchecks households did respond that their consumption was uncharacteristically high because of harsh summers.So,a lot is dependent on how the summers would turn out to be.A declining La-Nina is expected to keep the summers hot this year too,and dry.But this summer is?ghting against a monstrous last year performance,so we expect even with the dry summers the performance to be muted and in low single digits.#Cold DrinksFMCG performance itself is dependent on one category Atta.The Government has now decided to give free food grains for the entirety of 2023 to nearly 81 crore NFSA bene?ciaries.Earlier,for the COVID-19 package,the Government was proving 5KGs of food grains free over and above the monthly entitlements.But the individual still had to pay for those monthly entitlements,although at a subsidized rate.Now,while the COVID-19 package is halted,the monthly entitlements themselves are made free.A consumer would be able to save at least Rs.40 per month due to this free food grains.This will have considerable bearing on FMCG for 2023.With a likely growth in both Atta purchases as well as consumers funneling the savings to purchase better and more products,we expect a reasonable growth in FMCG compared to what weve seen in MAT Jan 23.We will very likely turn consumption positive towards the second half of the year,provided the macro conditions do not throw us a curve-ball.#RuralRural was Indias growth driver for the past few years.But there are some cautions for this year,particularly in terms of weather.The three-year La-Nina is receding and El-Nino is expected to set in some time around July.In the past,El-Nino has been associated with low rainfall in the country.Though the country is expecting a great wheat harvest,the warm winters have played a bit of a spoilsport in that aspect.Much is dependent on the Rabi harvest,and the farmers have also taken up Rabi crops in 15%more farms this year.Keeping that in mind,we are expecting to see Rural making a recovery in the?rst half of the year,but the second half might still be bumpy for the region.#ConvenienceThe sector grew at 21%in MAT Jan 23.And as work-from-home facilities started wrapping up the sector started generating faster growths.The sector comes to life during the middle of the year,with most holidays and people staying at home.The current trend does point out to growing consumer demand,and we expect double digit growth to continue,though at a lower clip that the 21%registered this year.Outlook for 2023Beating In?ationHowever,we do see some impact of in?ation on overall spending.The average spends of 42.2K in An average Indian spends about INR 38 K on an average in a quarter.However,this varies across di?erent pop strata and level of a?uence.A household in metro city spends about 1.6 times more than a rural household.An a?uent household spends 1.4 times more than an average household.L3M June declined by 10%in L3M Nov despite of festivities.The impact was even higher in rural where spends declined by 13%.A record crop production and exports prior to the ban generated cash surplus for rural.This along with free grain distribution insulated rural consumers from the impact of in?ation in the initial part of the year.But rural is also now feeling the heat of prices going upCautious SpendingIn?ation in India has been oscillating between 6%to 7%in the past few months with daily essentials like oil,rice,spices seeing some steep rise in prices.While it did come down below 6%during November and December,it went up again to 6.52%in January 2023.So,how are consumers managing the stress on their wallets in these in?ationary times?It is dependent on two factors:What is the spread of the wallet across essential and non-essential categories?And where are the consumers feeling the maximum pinch of price increase?We did a study to get the answers to these questions in June of 2022 and repeated it in November 2022.The study was done on a sample size of about 6,000 households and here are some of the?ndings from the November round.Almost half of the consumers quarterly budget is spent on groceries and fresh produce and another 40%goes into other household expenses like utilities,commute and communication.Only 15%of the wallet is spent on discretionary items like fashion,eating out,entertainment etc.This proportion hasnt changed much in both the rounds,except that the share of Groceries and Dairy further moved up in L3M Nov as spends on these grew by 5%and 6%respectively.Despite of festivities we dont see much increase in share of discretionary sectors like fashion and consumer durables,which also indicates the cautious state of the market currently.But una?ected share of walletConsumers perceive that there has been increase in price across majority of essential categories during the second half of 2022.More than 2/5th of consumers feels prices have increased across various categories like fuel,electricity and staples such as milk,atta/wheat and rice.In fact,this perception is even higher among urban a?uent households with almost 80%of consumers feeling that prices have gone up.This is probably because they are involved in purchase of many more categories.Consumers do feel the heatAnd consequently,Indian consumers are not spending too much on discretionary categories.However,they are normalizing in?ation as lot of consumers now feel that prices are not rising any further.Figure 1Proportion of Households not spending on the categoriesPersonal grooming such as gym,salon etc.:Change in Spends 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%L3M JanL3M Nov%83SoupsCarbonated Soft DrinksPackaged JuicesEating out or ordering foodEntertainment-watching movies,OTT subscription%80%52%58%68%72%40%39%68%66%68%66Figure 2Categories In?ation Perception:Prices have remained sameFurits/VeggiesLPG Edible oils InternetFuelElectricity Tea L3M JanL3M Nov%7%14%4%16%7%15%17%27%5%14%18%27%28%37Despite of perceived hike in price,consumers are not planning to compromise on essential categories like Education,Medicine,Staple food,groceries and daily essentials like toothpaste,shampoo and soaps.Consumers will continue to spend on these categories and are likely to manage their budget by moving to cheaper brands within household categories like Washing powders,Bar soaps etc.And they may consume less of ancillary staples like Besan,Poha,Rava,Spices.However,discretionary products like convenience goods have a risk of getting dropped out.1/5th of consumers is likely to stop spending on categories like packaged juices,soups,ketchup and on entertainment&eating out if prices further go up.Sticking to essentials Consumers do feel the heat of in?ation and are worried about how things would turn out in future.More than 75%of consumers are struggling to manage their budget and about 40%of them feel that situation is going to become worse in future and the stress is even more pronounced in Metros and among less a?uent households.Struggling Now and Worried about TomorrowGoing forward we foresee caution continuing even in 2023 spending patterns as consumers continue to struggle with their budgets and more and more consumers are feeling the situation will become worse.However,they have also normalized in?ation and if prices dont go up further,they are likely to maintain their purchase basket.OutlookWe seem to be bigger snackers out of home compared to in home as we observed that the snacking categories had a bigger portion of their volumes coming in out-of-home versus in-home.It was a year ago our latest consumer panel went live.The OOH panel as it is popularly known tracks what the consumer purchases and consumes out of home as opposed to the Household panel that focuses on tracking purchases made for in-home consumption.Over the course of the year,we have learnt quite a bit from the 11,000 individuals that make up the panel,and in this section,we share a few of those interesting snippets with you.With the pandemic ebbing since the second quarter of last year and the economy opening up,we saw a gradual increase in purchases made for out of home consumption.A year of Out-of-HomeFigure 3Volume Share:In Home vs.Out of Home(H2 2022)Juice&Juice Based DrinksCSDSalty SnacksBiscuits%16OOHIH%37%47%59%84%63%53%4190%of the population consumed Biscuits(&Cookies)at least once in the entire year,thus making it the most widely consumed category of the year.However,Salty snacks were bought on 1.2 billion distinct shopping occasions nationwide,more than any other category.These two categories,being the most heavily consumed categories outside of the home,also have the highest number of brands purchased in the year.For instance,the Eastern Biscuit shoppers purchased 9 brands on an average in the year.The third category in the snacking trinity,Chocolates was the category where the out-of-home shopper spent the most INR 54 billion.This singular category contributes over a quarter of all out-of-home spends;and is followed closely by biscuits at 23%.The Snack Trinity:Raking in the moolahWhen these categories are purchased out-of-home,their spend per trip is higher than the spend when they are purchased for in-home consumption.This may have something to do with the average pack sizes also being higher when purchased out-of-home compared to in-home.The only categories that do not?t this higher pack size phenom are salty snacks and carbonated soft drinks.It is also worth noting that the average number of items purchased per shopping trip of each category,is higher when the consumption occasion is out-of-home.However,annually in-home number of packs is quite signi?cant compared to out-of-home because the out-of-home frequency tends to be lesser.Larger packs and consequently higher spends per trip may also be linked to the exact nature of the occasion of consumption,as we will explore with an example in greater detail below.Resisting the urge to splurgeIce creams have the highest average ticket price among these categories both in and out-of-home,with the average spend per trip in an out-of-home occasion(at Rs.151)far exceeding the spend per trip for an in-home occasion(at Rs.66).On the other hand,biscuits and salty snacks have lower spends than all the other categories,which may be tied to the fact that over 55%of the occasions for both these categories were reported as being purchased to satiate hunger.Ice creams conversely,were mostly had to treat oneself 23%of purchase trips were attributed to this reason in the year and thats the dominating reason for consumption.Chocolates follow behind with 22%of their purchase trips made to treat oneself.While that may be the case,there is also evidence that ice creams are a group indulgence food too.44%of all out-of-home occasions