IMF-高加索和中亚金融包容性差距剖析（英）-2023-WN6.pdf

The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia Tigran Poghosyan WP/23/WP/23/109IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2023 MAY群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料*I would like to thank Omer Bayar,Nicolas Blancher,Nikoloz Gigineishvili,Mai Hakamada,Jiri Jonas and participants in a seminar at the Middle East and Central Asia Department for helpful comments and suggestions.Svetlana Zolotareva providedexcellent production assistance.The usual disclaimer applies.2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/109IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia Prepared by Tigran Poghosyan Authorized for distribution by Nicolas Blancher May 2023IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.ABSTRACT:This paper analyses how financial inclusion in the Caucasus and Central Asia(CCA)compares to peers in Central and Eastern Europe(CEE).Using individual-level survey data,it shows that the probability of being financially included,as proxied by account ownership in financial institutions,is substantially lower across gender,income groups,and education levels in all CCA countries relative to CEE comparators.Key determinants of this financial inclusion gap are lower financial and human development indices,weak rule of law,and physical access to bank branches or ATMs.This suggests that targeted policies aimed at boosting financial and human development,strengthening the rule of law,and supporting fintech solutions can broaden financial inclusion in the CCA.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Poghosyan,Tigran.2023.“The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in theCaucasus and Central Asia.”IMF Working Paper 23/109.JEL Classification Numbers:D14,G21,G28 Keywords:Caucasus and Central Asia;financial inclusion;financial accessAuthors E-Mail Address:TPoghosyanimf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia Prepared by Tigran Poghosyan IMF WORKING PAPERS The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4 Contents I.Introduction.5 II.Financial Inclusion in the CCA:Stylized Facts.5 A.The World Banks Global Findex database.5 B.Financial inclusion in the CCA and comparators.6 C.Financial inclusion and country-specific characteristics.7 III.Financial Inclusion and Individual Characteristics:Empirical Analysis.8 A.Empirical Specification.8 B.Estimation Results.9 IV.Determinants of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the CCA.9 A.Empirical Specification.9 B.Estimation Results.10 V.Can Digital Technology Help Enhance Financial Inclusion in the CCA?.10 VI.Conclusions.11 References.33 FIGURES Figure 1.CCA:Financial inclusion over time.13 Figure 2.Financial inclusion around the world.14 Figure 3.Financial inclusion across country income groups.15 Figure 4.Financial inclusion and financial development index.16 Figure 5.Financial inclusion and human development index.17 Figure 6.Financial inclusion and income inequality.18 Figure 7.Financial inclusion and the rule of law.19 Figure 8.Financial inclusion and inflation volatility.20 Figure 9.Financial inclusion and bank inefficiency.21 Figure 10.Financial inclusion and bank concentration.22 Figure 11.Financial inclusion and bank branches.23 Figure 12.Financial inclusion and ATMs.24 Figure 13.Predicted probability of being financially included(women).25 Figure 14.Predicted probability of being financially included(income group).26 Figure 15.Predicted probability of being financially included(education).27 Figure 16.Predicted probability of being financially included(over time).28 Figure 17.Decomposition of the financial inclusion gap between the CCA and CEE comparators.29 Figure 18.CCA:Mobile account ownership and use for digital transactions.30 TABLES Table 1.Estimation results:Financial inclusion and individual characteristics.31 Table 2.Estimation results:Financial inclusion gap and its determinants.32 IMF WORKING PAPERS The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 5 I.Introduction The Caucasus and Central Asia(CCA)countries have strived to broaden access to finance over the last three decades following their independence in the early 1990s.Financial inclusion,broadly defined as the ability of economic agents to use financial services,is increasingly recognized as crucial for economic development and poverty reduction(Sahay and others,2015a;Sahay and Cihak,2020).1 In particular,access to financial services allows economic agents to move away from short-term decision making to inter-temporal allocation of resources.This encourages savings,reduces reliance on self-financing,improves incentives for productive investments,and expands markets for goods and services(Rojas-Suarez,2014).While the importance of financial inclusion is widely recognized,it is perceived as insufficient and constraining investment activity and consumption in the CCA.2 According to the World Banks Global Findex database,the share of adults having an account with a financial intermediary in 2021 ranges between 39.5 percent in Tajikistan and 81.1 percent in Kazakhstan,which is relatively low compared to over 95 percent in high-income countries and 88.4 percent average in the comparator Central and Eastern European(CEE)countries.3 This paper provides empirical evidence on financial inclusion in the CCA and compares it with CEE peers.Using individual-level survey data,it shows that the probability of being financially included,as proxied by account ownership in financial institutions,is substantially lower across gender,income groups,and education levels in all CCA countries compared to CEE peers.Country-level data are then used to explore the determinants of this financial inclusion gap in the CCA.The analysis shows that lower financial and human development indices,weak rule of law,and lower geographical outreach(proxied by the number of ATMs per adult)in CCA countries compared to CEE peers are the main factors associated with the financial inclusion gap.This suggests that targeted policies aimed at boosting financial and human development,strengthening the rule of law,and supporting fintech solutions can broaden financial inclusion in the CCA.The remainder of the paper is structured as follows.Section II presents stylized facts on financial inclusion in the CCA and benchmarks it against comparator CEE countries and other groups of countries.Section III provides empirical evidence on the probability of being financially included depending on individual characteristics.Section IV provides empirical evidence on determinants of financial inclusion gap in the CCA relative to CEE comparators.Section V discusses how digital technology can help enhance financial inclusion in the CCA.The last section concludes.II.Financial Inclusion in the CCA:Stylized Facts A.The World Banks Global Findex database Since 2011,the World Bank in cooperation with Gallup has conducted individual-level surveys on the ways in which adults around the world use financial services,from payments to savings and borrowing,and manage 1 Financial inclusion and financial access are closely related concepts that are often used interchangeably.In practice,financial access is the set of conditions that makes financial inclusion possible.In this paper,we will use the term financial inclusion since our focus is on the ownership of a financial account by individuals.2 Our analysis focuses on financial inclusion of individuals,while investment activity is also influenced by the lack of financial access by small-and medium-sized enterprises.Blancher and others(2019)provide a comprehensive analysis of financial inclusion of small-and medium-sized enterprises in the Middle East and Central Asia.3 Comparator CEE countries include:Albania,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Croatia,Czechia,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Montenegro,North Macedonia,Poland,Romania,Serbia,the Slovak Republic,and Slovenia.IMF WORKING PAPERS The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 6 financial events such as a major expense or a loss of income(Demirguc-Kunt and others,2021).The first survey was conducted in 2011,followed by surveys in 2014,2017,and 2021.Each survey covers around 1000 nationally representative respondents per country,with some exceptions,and reflects a snapshot in time based on questions that respondents answer about their habits and experiences of the previous year(Demirguc-Kunt and Klapper,2013).The first set of indicators focuses on the ownership and use of an account at a formal financial institution,such as mechanics of their use(frequency,mode of access),their purpose(receipt of payments from work government,or family),barriers to their use,and alternatives to formal accounts(mobile money).The main indicator reflecting financial inclusion is the percentage of adults who have individual or joint ownership of a formal account,defined as an account at a formal financial institution such as a bank,credit union,cooperative,post office,or microfinance institution.The second set of indicators focuses on saving behavior.The concept of saving is more subjective than those of account ownership and use.The survey focuses on the purposeful action of saving,surveyed by asking individuals whether they have“saved or put aside any money”in the past year.The third set of indicators focuses on borrowing.The survey gathers data on the sources of borrowing(formal and informal),the purposes of borrowing(mortgage,emergency or health purposes,and the like),and the use of credit cards.Finally,the survey contains information on individual characteristics,such as the age of respondents,their gender,income level(five quintiles)and education(primary,secondary,and tertiary).Each respondent carries a weight that reflects individuals representation at the national level.B.Financial inclusion in the CCA and comparatorsFollowing the previous literature,we use the percentage of adults having a financial account as a proxy for financial inclusion.Figure 1 presents the evolution of financial inclusion in eight CCA countries over time(2011,2014,2017,and 2021).There is a clear upward dynamics,with financial inclusion expanding over time in all CCA countries.We can also observe sizeable variation across CCA countries,with financial inclusion in the last year of the sample ranging between 39.5 percent in Tajikistan and 81.1 percent in Kazakhstan.4 How does financial inclusion in the CCA compare at the global level?Figure 2 presents the measure of financial inclusion around the world for 2021 or the latest year for which a survey is available for the particular country.The coloring differentiates three groups of countries:CCA(8 countries),CEE(16 countries),and other countries(131 countries).As shown in the chart,financial inclusion varies widely around the world.In some countries financial inclusion reaches 100 percent,while in others it is in single digit levels.Financial inclusion in the CCA is on average lower compared to the CEE peers,suggesting that there is a gap between the two country groups.Figure 3 shows distribution of financial inclusion across four country income groups.The median financial inclusion is the highest in high income countries,followed by upper middle income,lower middle income,and low-income countries.In addition,financial inclusion varies within income groups,suggesting that there are other country-specific factors affecting financial inclusion.We will turn to these country-specific characteristics next.4 Data is missing for 2021 in Azerbaijan,and for 2014 and 2021 in Turkmenistan.IMF WORKING PAPERS The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 7 C.Financial inclusion and country-specific characteristics Following Rojas-Suarez and Gonzales(2010),Rojas-Suarez and Amado(2014)and Rojas-Suarez(2016),we present the association between financial inclusion and several country-specific constraints impairing financial inclusion.5 The first factor is financial development.The level of financial development is a complex measure that can be proxied by a multidimensional index,focusing on various aspects of financial development,such as debt access,and efficiency of financial institutions and financial markets(Sahay and others,2015b;Svirydzenka,2016).Greater financial development is conducive to greater financial inclusion and can contribute to higher growth in the CCA(Poghosyan,2022).Figure 4 presents the association between financial inclusion and financial development proxied by IMFs multidimensional index.As expected,the association is positive.The level of financial development in the CCA lags that of CEE comparators,suggesting that this determinant may play an important role in explaining the financial inclusion gap.The second factor is socio-economic development.Low levels of social development are often associated with lower demand for and supply of financial services,since financial exclusion of people is often part of a wider social exclusion,which involves living standards,level of education,life expectancy,etc.Figure 5 presents the correlation between financial inclusion and human development index developed by UNDP that summarizes the level of social development along three dimensions:(i)long and healthy life(life expectancy at birth),(ii)knowledge(expected years of schooling,mean years of schooling),and(iii)standards of living(GNI per capita measured in PPP USD).The figure displays a positive association between the two variables.The level of human development in the CCA generally lags that that of CEE comparators,suggesting that this determinant may hamper financial inclusion in the CCA.Another proxy for socio-economic development is income inequality.In countries with highly skewed income distribution,powerful interests are likely to block financial sector reforms that can support financial inclusion.Fi