OECD+经济展望（2023年第1卷）-253页-WN6.pdf

OECD Economic OutlookJune 2023PRELIMINARY VERSION群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK113JUNE 2023PRELIMINARY VERSIONThis work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.The opinions expressed andarguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD.This document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities.The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights,East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of international law.Note by the Republic of TrkiyeThe information in this document with reference to“Cyprus”relates to the southern part of the Island.There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island.Trkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus(TRNC).Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations,Trkiyeshall preserve its position concerning the“Cyprus issue”.Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Trkiye.Theinformation in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.Please cite this publication as:OECD(2023),OECD Economic Outlook,Volume 2023 Issue 1:Preliminary version,No.113,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/ce188438-en.ISBN 978-92-64-85354-6(print)ISBN 978-92-64-58958-2(pdf)ISBN 978-92-64-86968-4(HTML)ISBN 978-92-64-61777-3(epub)OECD Economic OutlookISSN 0474-5574(print)ISSN 1609-7408(online)Photo credits:Cover welcomeinside/S.Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at:www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.OECD 2023The use of this work,whether digital or print,is governed by the Terms and Conditions to be found at https:/www.oecd.org/termsandconditions.3 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 1:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2023 Table of contents Acknowledgements 7Editorial A Long Unwinding Road 91 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation 11Introduction 12 Global growth has stabilised,but the improvement is fragile and financial strains have worsened 14 Growth will remain subdued,with inflation declining gradually 31 The balance of risks is to the downside 36 Policy requirements 45 Bibliography 65 Annex 1.A.Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections 69 2 Promoting gender equality to strengthen economic growth and resilience 7172 73 75 79 80 Introduction Womens employment is still lagging in many countries Gender wage gaps and glass ceilings persist Women tend to be more vulnerable to economic shocks and poverty Policies can support female employment and foster equal opportunities Bibliography 87 3 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies 91Argentina 92 Australia 95 Austria 98 Belgium 101 Brazil 104 Bulgaria 108 Canada 111 Chile 115 China 118 Colombia 122 Costa Rica 125 Croatia 128 Czech Republic 131 Denmark 134 Estonia 137 Euro area 140 4 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 1:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2023 Finland 144 France 147 Germany 151 Greece 155 Hungary 158 Iceland 161 India 164 Indonesia 168 Ireland 172 Israel 175 Italy 178 Japan 182 Korea 186 Latvia 189 Lithuania 192 Luxembourg 195 Mexico 198 Netherlands 201 New Zealand 204 Norway 207 Peru 210 Poland 213 Portugal 216 Romania 219 Slovak Republic 222 Slovenia 225 South Africa 228 Spain 231 Sweden 234 Switzerland 237 Trkiye 240 United Kingdom 243 United States 247 FIGURES Figure 1.1.Global growth has slowed and recent activity indicators are mixed 15 Figure 1.2.Energy prices have fallen back to mid-2021 levels 16 Figure 1.3.Tighter monetary policy is already affecting housing markets 17 Figure 1.4.Global trade indicators generally remain soft 18 Figure 1.5.Financial stress has so far remained contained 19 Figure 1.6.Bank credit is slowing and swiftly becoming more expensive 21 Figure 1.7.Monetary policy tightening has also been transmitted to corporate bond markets 22 Figure 1.8.Bank funding costs have risen sharply,and credit standards have tightened 23 Figure 1.9.Volatility in bond markets has increased sharply 24 Figure 1.10.Equity prices and bond yields have rebounded after sharp drops in many countries 24 Figure 1.11.Headline inflation has fallen but core inflation is proving persistent 25 Figure 1.12.The contribution to inflation from both unit profits and unit labour costs has increased recently in many countries 28 Figure 1.13.The share of gross profits in GDP increased in most countries since 2019 29 Figure 1.14.Mining and utilities account for a substantial share in the increase in unit profits 30 Figure 1.15.Real incomes and wages have been weak and nominal wage growth is starting to stabilise 31 5 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 1:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2023 Figure 1.16.Global growth is projected to remain subdued and heavily dependent on Asian economies 32 Figure 1.17.Trade growth is projected to remain soft 35 Figure 1.18.Inflation is projected to ease 35 Figure 1.19.There is a risk that inflation could persist for longer than expected 36 Figure 1.20.Bank deposit growth has slowed,with money flowing into money market funds 38 Figure 1.21.Banks vulnerability to liquidity and duration risks varies across countries 38 Figure 1.22.Debt securities are a sizeable share of total financial assets of insurers and pension funds 40 Figure 1.23.A further unexpected tightening of financial conditions would hit growth 41 Figure 1.24.Financial market volatility has recently increased in emerging-market economies 43 Figure 1.25.External debt and the linkages between domestic banks and domestic sovereign bonds have risen in emerging-market economies 44 Figure 1.26.Most central bank balance sheets have begun to decrease 46 Figure 1.27.Monetary policy is projected to remain restrictive 47 Figure 1.28.Several central banks now report negative profits 50 Figure 1.29.Net transfers from the central bank to general government have declined 51 Figure 1.30.Fiscal support to mitigate energy costs remains sizeable and mostly untargeted 52 Figure 1.31.Moderate fiscal consolidation is projected in most countries 53 Figure 1.32.Public investment is projected to increase in most countries 54 Figure 1.33.Primary budget balances are often still below pre-pandemic levels 55 Figure 1.34.Tighter monetary policy is slowing investment growth in most emerging-market economies 56 Figure 1.35.Monetary policy is projected to remain restrictive in many emerging-market economies 57 Figure 1.36.Fiscal balance trajectories are projected to differ across emerging-market economies 57 Figure 1.37.Underlying growth prospects and investment have slowed 59 Figure 1.38.High childcare costs are slowing the reduction in gender gaps 60 Figure 1.39.Changes in US manufacturing import shares between 2018 and 2022 63 Figure 1.40.Changes in extra-EU manufacturing import shares between 2018 and 2022 64 Figure 1.41.Changes in Japans manufacturing import shares between 2018 and 2022 65 Figure 2.1.Gender equality is associated with high income per capita 72 Figure 2.2.Gender employment gaps vary widely across countries 73 Figure 2.3.Involuntary part-time is more prevalent among women 74 Figure 2.4.Foreign-born women tend to have lower employment rates than natives 75 Figure 2.5.Gender wage gaps remain wide in most countries 76 Figure 2.6.Girls perform better than boys in education 77 Figure 2.7.Fewer women graduate in Science,ICT and engineering 77 Figure 2.8.Women remain under-represented in management 78 Figure 2.9.Fewer women than men are entrepreneurs 79 Figure 2.10.Women are at higher risk of poverty than men in most countries 80 Figure 2.11.More gender-inclusive labour markets is a priority for many countries 81 Figure 2.12.Enrolment in early education varies widely across countries and income groups 82 Figure 2.13.High childcare costs can generate high financial disincentives to enter employment 82 Figure 2.14.Parental leave entitlements are still very uneven between parents 84 TABLES Table 1.1.Global growth prospects remain modest 14 BOXES Box 1.1.Monetary policy pass-through to household and corporate credit financing conditions:a preliminary assessment 20 Box 1.2.The contribution of unit profits to domestic inflationary pressures 26 Box 1.3.Do central bank losses matter?48 Box 1.4.Shifting bilateral trade patterns in the major economies 62 Box 2.1.Addressing barriers to parents working in the United Kingdom 83 Box 2.2.The Australian National Strategy for gender equality 84 6 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 1:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2023 Look for the 12 at the bottom of the tables or graphs inthis book.To download the matching Excelspreadsheet,just typethe link into your Internet browser or click on the link from the digitalversion.This book has.A service that delivers Excelfiles fromthe printed page!Follow OECD Publications on:https:/ OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 1:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2023 Acknowledgements This edition of the OECD Economic Outlook was prepared by the Economics Department under the general supervision of Clare Lombardelli,Luiz De Mello,lvaro Pereira,Isabell Koske and Alain de Serres,and managed by Nigel Pain.Chapter 1 was prepared in the Macroeconomic Policy Division and supervised by Nigel Pain,with Geoff Barnard and lvaro Pina as principal authors;and Catherine MacLeod,Patrice Ollivaud,Nobukazu Ono,Lucia Quaglietti,Elena Rusticelli,and Enes Sunel providing substantive contributions.Chapter 2 was prepared in the Structural Policy Analysis Division and supervised by Filiz Unsal,with Christophe Andr as the principal author;and Orsetta Causa,Emilia Soldani and Douglas Sutherland providing substantive contributions.Chapter 3 was prepared by the Country Studies Branch,with contributions from Michael Abendschein,Mge Adalet McGowan,Hansjrg Blchliger,Martin Borowiecki,Tim Bulman,Gabriele Ciminelli,Ben Conigrave,Charles Dennery,Federica De Pace,Falilou Fall,Priscilla Fialho,Erik Frohm,Paula Garda,Daniela Glocker,Andrea Goldstein,Nicolas Gonne,Antoine Goujard,Robert Grundke,David Haugh,Philip Hemmings,Jens-Christian Hj,Hyunjeong Hwang,Yosuke Jin,Nikki Kergozou,Eun Jung Kim,Caroline Klein,Viktoriia Klimchuk,Michael Koelle,Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou,Zeev Krill,Kyongjun Kwak,lvaro Leandro,Timo Leidecker,Gabriel Machlica,Alessandro Maravalle,Margit Molnar,Kei Oguro,Alberto Gonzlez Pandiella,Jon Pareliussen,Pierre-Alain Pionnier,Bertrand Pluyaud,Axel Purwin,Adolfo Rodriguez-Vargas,Oliver Rhn,Cyrille Schwellnus,Patrizio Sicari,Urban Sila,Zuzana Smidova,Donal Smith,Jonathan Smith,Sbastien Turban,Jan Strasky,Kosuke Suzuki,Tomomi Tanaka,Srdan Tatomir,Ania Thiemann,Elena Vidal,Ben Westmore,Yoonyoung Yang and Zvezdelina Zhelyazkova.The preparation of the country notes was supervised by Jens Arnold,Sebastian Barnes,Aida Caldera Sanchez,Mame Fatou Diagne,Philip Hemmings,and Vincent Koen.Overall coordination and key editorial and statistical support was provided by Isabelle Fakih and Jrme Brzillon.Statistical support was given by Paula Adamczyk,Damien Azzopardi,Corinne Chanteloup,Ane Kathrine Christensen,Lutcia Daniel,Vronique Gindrey,Federico Giovannelli,Batrice Gurard,Mauricio Hitschfeld,Tony Huang,Eun Jung Kim,Seung-Hee Koh,Anne Legendre,Natia Mosiashvili,Axel Purwin and Mafalda Trinco.Editorial support for the country notes was provided by Jean-Rmi Bertrand,Emily Derry,Karimatou Diallo,Laura Fortin,Robin Houng Lee,Elodie Lormel and Michelle Ortiz.Background analysis and key database management was provided by the Macroeconomic Analysis Division,with contributions from Yvan Guillemette and Jeroen Meyer,under the supervision of David Turner.An initial draft of the report was discussed by the OECD Economic Policy Committee.This report is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.9 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 1:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2023 Editorial A Long Unwinding Road The global economy is turning a corner but faces a long road ahead to attain strong and sustainable growth.Global GDP growth slowed substantially throughout 2022,but several of the factors weighing negatively are now unwinding.Falling energy prices and headline inflation,easing supply bottlenecks and the reopening of Chinas economy,coupled with strong employment and relatively resilient household finances,all contribute to a projected recovery.Nevertheless,the recovery will be weak by past standards.We project global growth to be 2.7%in 2023,with a modest pick-up to 2.9%in 2024 both well below the average growth rate in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic.Policymakers need to act decisively on macroeconomic and structural policy to deliver stronger and more sustainable growth.This is hard.Core inflation remains too persistent.Debt levels are too high.And potential output is too low.Monetary policymakers need to navigate a difficult road.Although headline inflation is declining thanks to lower energy prices,core inflation remains stubbornly high,more so than previously expected.Central banks need to maintain restrictive monetary policies until there are clear signs that underlying inflationary pressures are abating.Some economies grappling with stubbornly high core inflation may require additional interest rate increases.However,policymakers must keep a watchful eye,given the uncertainties around the exact impact of the rapid and globally synchronised monetary policy tightening following an extended period of low interest rates.The tightening has already revealed some vulnerabilities in financial markets.Should further financial market stress arise,central banks should deploy financial policy instruments to enhance liquidity and minimise contagion risks.Clear communication will be crucial to avoid confusion about the potential conflict between pursuing price stability and financial stability mandates.The choices for fiscal policymakers are clearer but no easier to implement given the inherent political sensitivity of policy choices with direct redistributive effects.Fiscal policy played a vital role in supporting the global economy through the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russias war in Ukraine.However