IMF-用外国直接投资统计数据衡量跨国生产：近期趋势、挑战和发展（英）-2023-WN6.pdf

Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics:Recent Trends,Challenges,and DevelopmentsBruno Casella,Maria Borga,and Konstantin M.Wacker WP/23/113IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2023JUN群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料 2023 International Monetary FundWP/23/113IMF Working Paper Statistics DepartmentMeasuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics:Recent Trends,Challenges,and DevelopmentsPrepared by Bruno Casella,Maria Borga,and Konstantin M.WackerAuthorized for distribution by Carlos Snchez-Muoz June 2023Abstract In a complex global production landscape,the quest for measures of economic activity by multinational enterprises(MNEs)has become more pressing.Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)statistics,which capture financing aspects of MNEs,have often been used as a proxy for multinational production given their wide availability and cross-country comparability,but concerns that multinational production occurs in different countries than where financial positions are recorded call this practice into question.This paper revisits the main objections to the use of FDI as a proxy for multinational production,explores counterarguments,and provides guidance on the use of FDI statistics to measure multinational production.JEL Classification Numbers:F20,F23,C82Keywords:FDI;multinational production;multinational enterprises;foreign affiliatesAuthors E-Mail Address:bruno.casellaunctad.org;mborgaimf.org;k.m.wackerrug.nlMaria Borga is Deputy Division Chief in the Balance of Payments Division,IMF;Bruno Casella is Senior Economist at the Division of Investment and Enterprise,UNCTAD;Konstantin M.Wacker is an assistant professor at the University of Groningen,Netherlands.The authors are grateful to Richard Bolwijn(UNCTAD),Carlos Snchez-Muoz(IMF),Jannick Damgaard(IMF),and Thomas Elkjaer(IMF)for helpful comments.Substantial statistical and research inputs were provided by Gregory Auclaire(UNCTAD).IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Recent Trends,Challenges,and Developments Prepared by Bruno Casella,Maria Borga,and Konstantin M.Wacker1 1 Maria Borga is Deputy Division Chief in the Balance of Payments Division,IMF;Bruno Casella is Senior Economist at the Division of Investment and Enterprise,UNCTAD;Konstantin M.Wacker is an assistant professor at the University of Groningen,Netherlands.The corresponding author is Konstantin Wacker:k.m.wackerrug.nl.The authors are grateful to Richard Bolwijn(UNCTAD),Carlos Sanchez Munoz(IMF),Jannick Damgaard(IMF),and Thomas Elkjaer(IMF)for helpful comments.Substantial statistical and research inputs were provided by Gregory Auclaire(UNCTAD).IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Contents Glossary.3 Executive Summary.4 Introduction.5 I.How to Unmask“Phantom FDI”?.8 Critique 1:“Phantom FDI”through offshore financial centers is driven by financial and tax motives,weakening the relationship between FDI and multinational production.8 II.Bilateral FDI Statistics:How Much of a Puzzle?.15 Critique 2:Offshore financial centers act as middlemen between investors country of origin and final destination,making ultimate investor countries invisible in bilateral FDI statistics.15 III.Beyond Phantom FDI:Source of Funds vs Use of Funds.21 Critique 3:FDI is a specific source of funds and does not capture local and non-affiliated sources of financing of multinational operations.21 IV.Improving FDI Data:Recent Progress and Developments.24 V.Conclusion and Guidelines for Applied Research.25 References.27 FIGURES 1.Main Critiques of the Use of FDI Data to Measure Multinational Production and Recent Developments and Findings.8 2.An Illustrative Scheme of Conduit FDI.10 3.Relationship Between FDI Inward Stock and Inward Sales of Foreign Affiliates,OECD Countries,2016,US$millions.14 4.Germanys Inward FDI Stock and FATS Turnover by Partner(Investor)Country,Share in Total,Top Ten Largest Ultimate Investors in Germany,2016.16 5.Comparison Between Germany Reported Positions by Ultimate Investing Economy(UIE),Reported Positions by Immediate Direct Investor and Estimated Positions by UIE,Share in Total,Top Ten Largest UIEs in Germany,2016.17 6.Relationship Between Immediate and Ultimate FDI Stocks in Bilateral Data.19 7.Relationship Between FDI Stock and Operational Data.23 TABLES 1.The Size of SPEs:Comparison Between Estimated and Reported and Between UNCTAD and DEJ Estimates,2016.13 2.Gravity Estimation for Immediate and Ultimate FDI Determinants.20 IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Glossary BEPS Base Erosion and Profit Shifting BoP Balance of Payments CDIS Coordinated Direct Investment Survey FA Foreign Affiliate FATS Foreign Affiliate Statistics FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product IIP International Investment Position MNE Multinational Enterprise OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OFC Offshore Financial Center SPE Special Purpose Entity UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UIE Ultimate Investing Economy US BEA United States Bureau of Economic Analysis IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Executive Summary Given the importance of multinational enterprises(MNEs)in the world economy,it is important for policymakers,researchers and analysts to properly measure their economic activity.It is common to use foreign direct investment(FDI)statistics for this purpose because they are widely available and comparable across countries.Since FDI statistics capture the financing aspects of MNEs,recent research has questioned this use of FDI statistics due to concerns that the production of MNEs happens in different economies than where they record financial positions.The most prominent critique of the use of FDI statistics has been that MNEs can channel their investments through an enterprise resident in one economy to an enterprise in another economy.The channelling of FDI through multiple jurisdictions,also called conduit FDI,happens for a variety of reasons,including access to sophisticated tax and financial services,to protect parent companies against claims on their affiliates,and to protect their investments against political risk.This practice inflates FDI statistics and obscures the ultimate investors and destinations of FDI.While conduit FDI can occur in any economy,it is most associated with offshore financial centers(OFCs)in which the OFC acts as intermediate jurisdiction between the investors economy of origin and the final destination of FDI.It has been estimated that between 30 and 40 percent of total FDI stock is routed through OFCs.This paper highlights the progress that researchers and the international statistical community have made in addressing these concerns.The international statistical community has developed guidelines and initiated collection of data on Special Purpose Entities(SPEs),which are entities that are often involved in channelling FDI through OFCs.Identifying transactions and positions of SPEs separately from other direct investment enterprises enables the identification of pure conduit activities.If FDI data to and from SPEs are not available,it is possible to rely on alternative analytical methods to estimate the role of SPEs in aggregate FDI statistics,which we discuss in this paper.These methods build on the statistical correlation between gross domestic product and FDI stock to estimate the size of conduit FDI.The statistical community has also developed guidance on the recording of FDI positions by the ultimate investing economy(UIE)to look through the conduit economies and reveal the ultimate origin of FDI in an economy.Where such statistics are not yet available,researchers have developed analytical methods to address the gap between direct and ultimate bilateral statistics generated by channelling FDI through OFCs.Finally,it is important to remember that when the bilateral link involves non-OFC economies,standard bilateral FDI statistics already identify ultimate investors relatively well.Researchers who regard FDI statistics as a proxy for multinational production should consider the following practical steps:(1)Explore the metadata to understand the coverage of FDI statistics(e.g.,whether it includes SPEs or not and whether SPEs are reported separately);(2)Take into account the institutional setting of the economies being studied to understand if factors that can distort the relationship between FDI positions and multinational production are present;(3)Adjust for FDI to and from SPEs by using published data combined with one of the available analytical methods;(4)In the analysis of bilateral FDI statistics,identify ultimate investors using published data combined with one of the available analytical methods discussed;and(5)Compare and complement FDI data with other relevant data sources,including project-based data,firm-level data,survey-level data,and trade and value added trade data when available.With care taken in their use,IIP-based FDI statistics remain an important and instrumental data source to study and understand multinational production.IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Introduction Foreign direct investment(FDI)is a key category of international investment.According to the most recent vintage of the dataset of Lane and Milesi-Ferretti(2021),FDI stocks accounted for some 30 percent of global cross-border liabilities in 2015,and FDI accounted for over half of foreign financing in more than a third of countries,most of them developing.Together with statistics on portfolio investment and other cross-border investment(such as cross-border bank loans),FDI positions reflect financial exposure and international financial integration across countries.What distinguishes FDI from other international investment is the idea that the FDI investor seeks a lasting interest in and a significant degree of influence over an enterprise in another economy.1 This definition has historically motivated the use of FDI data from the Balance of Payments as a proxy for multinational enterprises production,activities and presence in the host economy because the foreign enterprises receiving FDI(direct investment enterprises)are largely foreign subsidiaries,branches,and associates of multinational groups.In this paper,we refer to“multinational production”as a concept that quantifies the real activity of MNEs affiliates,such as output or sales,in line with the seminal academic literature(e.g.,Ramondo et al.,2015;Alviarez,2019;Arkolakis et al.,2018;Miroudot and Rigo,2021).However,there have long been concerns about the adequacy of FDI statistics to measure patterns of multinational production that have increased in recent years(e.g.,Lipsey,2007;Beugelsdijk et al.,2010;Leino and Ali-Yrkk,2014;Blanchard and Acalin,2016;Sauvant,2017;Linsi and Mugge,2019).As discussed further below,these papers have highlighted that the production activities of MNEs may not occur in the locations where they record their financial positions,raising questions when FDI statistics can adequately be used.Those empirical contributions were mostly based on comparing FDI statistics to data on the activities of MNEs that statistical agencies in a few countries,including the United States,Sweden,and Japan,had collected in recognition of the need for a data collection specifically designed to measure multinational production.In 2007,Eurostat began its first data collection of Foreign Affiliate Statistics(FATS).2 However,there has not been much progress in expanding the coverage of these data as only a few additional countries have introduced such data collections since then.3 Lipsey(2007)found differences between outward FDI data for the United States and statistics on the activities of U.S.MNEs abroad,including their employment,value added and property,plant and equipment;the differences were especially significant in industry distributions.He attributed those differences to the tax avoidance strategies of U.S.MNEs and to the increasing importance of intangible assets in production.4 1 Ownership of 10 percent of the voting power of an enterprise by a non-resident investor is taken as evidence of a direct investment relationship.2 FATS are foreign affiliate statistics based on exhaustive or quasi-exhaustive census-type surveys of multinational enterprises.Inward FATS describe the operating activities of enterprises that are controlled by MNEs that are resident in another country or economy.They include variables such as employment,turnover,and value added and are typically compiled by developed economies.The indicator inward foreign affiliate turnover employed in Figure 3(y-axis)is an example of FATS.The OECD collects statistics on the Activities of Multinational Enterprises(AMNE)from its members;AMNE statistics cover FATS as well as statistics on the activities of MNE parent companies.3 In 2008,the OECDs Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment,fourth edition attempted to better align FDI statistics with multinational production by,for example,recommending the separate identification of FDI to and from resident Special Purpose Entities and the classification of FDI positions by the Ultimate Investing Country.4 For an approach to derive intangible asset income from global production networks,see Chen et al.(2021).IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Using a similar analytical approach of comparing FDI and foreign affiliates statistics,Beugelsdijk et al.(2010)found a systematic over-estimation of foreign affiliates(FAs)operations in specific jurisdictions classified as offshore financial centers(OFCs).5 Conversely,they also find an underestimation of foreign affiliate operations(e.g.,sales or value added)by FDI statistics in countries with more advanced financial systems that is attributed to non-FDI financing(i