BigTech和货币政策传导：基于中国的微观经济层面证据-49页-WN5.pdf

BIS Working Papers No 1084 BigTech credit and monetary policy transmission:micro-level evidence from China by Yiping Huang,Xiang Li,Han Qiu and Changhua Yu Monetary and Economic Department March 2023 JEL classification:E52;G21;G23.Keywords:Financial technology,bank lending,monetary policy transmission.群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料 BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements,and from time to time by other economists,and are published by the Bank.The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character.The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS.This publication is available on the BIS website(www.bis.org).Bank for International Settlements 2023.All rights reserved.Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated.ISSN 1020-0959(print)ISSN 1682-7678(online)BigTech Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission:Micro-Level Evidence from ChinaYiping HuangXiang LiHan QiuChanghua YuAbstractThis paper studies monetary policy transmission through BigTech and traditional banks.By comparing business loans made by a BigTech bank with those made by traditional banks,it finds that BigTech credit amplifies monetary policy transmission mainly through the ex-tensive margin.Specifically,the BigTech bank is more likely to grant credit to new borrow-ers compared with conventional banks in response to expansionary monetary policy.TheFor comments,discussion,and suggestions,we thank Gene Ambrocio,Guido Ascari(discussant),Christoph Basten,Christiane Baumeister,Jonathan Benchimol(discussant),Sally Chen(discussant),MarcoDi Maggio(discussant),Thomas Drechsel,Zuzana Fung a cov a,Andreas Fuster,Leonardo Gambacorta(dis-cussant),Emilia Garcia-Appendini,Alexandra Gutsch,Jiayin Hu(discussant),Yi Huang,Boreum Kwak,Wei Li(discussant),Chang Ma,Aakriti Mathur,Mrinal Mishra,Steven Ongena,Melina Papoutsi,MalteRieth,Matthias Rottner,Alessandro Sardone,Christoph Schult,Laura Solanko,Ilhyock Shim,Ruben Staffa,Gregor von Schweinitz,Yongjie Zhang,and other scholars at the China Financial Research Conference;theAsianFA Conference;the Bank of England workshop on Advanced Analytics:New Methods and Applicationsfor Macroeconomic Policy,the Central Bank Research Association 2022 Annual Meeting,the 9th AnnualConference of MIT Golub Center for Finance and Policy,BIS research meeting,the ECB China ExpertNetwork Workshop 2022;and seminars at the University of Zurich,Bank of Finland,and Halle Institute forEconomic Research.Any remaining errors are ours alone.China Center for Economic Research,National School of Development,and Institute of Digital Finance,Peking University.Yiheyuan Road 5,Beijing,100871,China.Work phone number:+86 10 6275-4798.Email:Halle Institute for Economic Research,Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg,and Institute ofDigital Finance,Peking University.Kleine Maekerstrasse 8,Halle(Saale),06108,Germany.Work phonenumber:+49 345 7753-805.Email:xiang.liiwh-halle.deBank for International Settlements.78th floor,Two International Finance Centre,8 Finance Street,Central,Hong Kong.Work phone number:+852 2982-7100.Email:han.qiubis.orgChina Center for Economic Research,National School of Development,and Institute of Digital Finance,Peking University.Yiheyuan Road 5,Beijing,100871,China.Work phone number:+86 10 6275-8935.Email:1BigTech banks advantages in information,monitoring,and risk management are the po-tential mechanisms.In addition,the usage of BigTech credit is associated with a strongerresponse of firms sales in response to monetary policy.Keywords:Financial Technology;Bank Lending;Monetary Policy TransmissionJEL Codes:E52;G21;G231IntroductionFinancial technology(FinTech)has been a major phenomenon in the recent developmentof financial markets.During the COVID-19 crisis,FinTech has played an unprecedentedlyprominent role in stabilizing and reigniting the economy(Core and De Marco 2021,Kwanet al.2021,Bao and Huang 2021,Fu and Mishra 2021).By definition,FinTech is a broadconcept that refers to the use of technology in providing financial services(FSB 2019).What makes it stand out in the long history of financial innovation is that the disruptionthis time has been initiated by players outside the financial markets rather than within theold system.Digital platforms for marketplace lending and credit issued by big technologycompanies(BigTech),such as Ant Group,Amazon,or Mercado Libre,have posed seriouschallenges to the lending model of traditional financial intermediaries(Boot et al.2021).Figure 1 shows that BigTech credit has overtaken credit issued by decentralized platformsin recent years.BigTech credit accounts for 2%-3%of gross domestic product(GDP)incountries like China and Kenya.These BigTech credits are particularly important for micro,small,and medium-sized enterprises(MSMEs),which are the backbone of entrepreneurshipand economic growth.As of the year 2018,MSMEs account for 99.8%of establishments,79.4%of employment,and 68.2%of sales in the Chinese economy.Armed with information,distribution,and monitoring technologies built into the ecosystem of BigTech digital plat-forms,BigTech lenders are able to reduce reliance on traditional collateral and thus covermore borrowers that have been unserved or underserved by traditional financial institutions(Petersen and Rajan 1994,Berger and Udell 1995,Cornelli et al.2022).BigTech credithas become a top concern for economic policy making(Carstens et al.2021,Adrian 2021).As recognized by Philippon(2016)and Lagarde(2018),the disruption by FinTech brings a“brave new world”for monetary policy makers and requires re-evaluation of the effectivenessof monetary policy transmission through these new lenders.Despite the burgeoning litera-1ture on FinTech,little is known about its implications for monetary policy transmission.1This paper bridges this gap by exploring monetary policy transmission mechanisms throughBigTech and conventional banks.0200400600800Total,USD bn2013201420152016201720182019Platform CreditBigTech Credit050100150per capita,USD2013201420152016201720182019Platform CreditBigTech CreditFigure 1:Global FinTech CreditData source:Cornelli et al.(2020).We employ a unique data set covering the full borrowing history of sampled MSMEs froma major BigTech lender and traditional banks in China.We accessed credit data from theAnt Group,one of the dominant BigTech companies both domestically and internationally,and match with these MSMEs borrowing history from traditional banks.Our data set coversmonthly observations of both BigTech credit and bank credit to firms from January 2017to December 2019.Combined with variations in monetary policy,our data set provides anideal laboratory for investigating monetary policy transmission mechanisms through BigTechlenders and traditional banks.The findings based on the evidence from China may shed lighton regulatory and monetary policies in other countries as well.Our identification strategy focuses on the extensive margin,captured by a new lendingrelationship between a bank and a firm,and the intensive margin,captured by newly issued1See Allen et al.(2021)for a survey of FinTech research and policy discussion.2loans to a firm that has already borrowed from the bank.We explore the relative responseof BigTech lending to changes in monetary policy,compared with traditional bank lending.After controlling firms demand for credit,our estimates capture the impact of monetarypolicy through the credit supply of different types of banks.In addition,we examine thereal impact on firms of BigTech credit relative to conventional bank loans by comparing salesgrowth in response to changes in monetary policy.The main findings of the paper are the following.We find that BigTech loans tend to besmaller,and BigTech banks grant credit to more new borrowers,compared with conventionalbanks,in response to expansionary monetary policy.In other words,when monetary policyeases,BigTech lenders are more likely to establish new lending relationships with firms,compared with traditional banks.BigTech banks advantages in information,monitoring,and risk management are the potential mechanisms.Compared with traditional bank loans,BigTech lending amplifies monetary policy to a larger extent for firms that have onlinebusinesses,rather than firms that have only offline businesses,and when BigTech lending iscompared with secured bank loans,rather than unsecured banks loans.However,BigTechand traditional bank credits to firms that have already borrowed from these banks respondsimilarly to monetary policy changes.Overall,BigTech credit amplifies monetary policytransmission mainly through the extensive margin relative to traditional bank loans.Inaddition,monetary policy has a stronger impact on the real economy through BigTechlending than traditional bank loans.This study relates to three branches of the literature.First,we contribute to the liter-ature on monetary policy transmission by focusing on a new player,BigTech lenders,andcomparing their responses to monetary policy with those of traditional banks.The banklending channel of monetary policy(Bernanke and Blinder 1988,1992,Kashyap and Stein1995)depends on cross-sectional heterogeneity in various dimensions,including liquidity,size,income gap,leverage,and market power(Kashyap and Stein 2000,Brissimis et al.32014,Drechsler et al.2017,Gomez et al.2021,Wang et al.2021).The risk tolerance andrisk exposure of financial intermediation may amplify monetary policy shocks,as is foundby Coimbra et al.(2022)and Di Tella and Kurlat(2021).Heterogeneity in lenders techno-logical characteristics is a missing link in the literature.2Recently,Hasan et al.(2020)andHasan et al.(2022)examine the role of regional FinTech penetration and banks in-housetechnology development in the effectiveness of monetary policy.De Fiore et al.(2022)studyBigTechs response to monetary policy based on cross-country annual data and model therole of BigTech as facilitating matching between sellers and buyers.Zhou(2022)emphasizesthe role of social network in helping FinTech enhance the transmission of monetary policyto the mortgage market.The key innovation of our study is that we focus on the monetary transmission mechanismthrough BigTech lending relative to traditional bank lending by exploring quasi-loan-leveldata between MSMEs and two types of lenders,BigTech and traditional banks.The evi-dence that BigTech lending amplifies monetary policy also adds to the recent literature thatinvestigates the role of nonbanks in monetary policy transmission(e.g.,Elliott et al.2019,Chen et al.2018).Second,our study is related to the burgeoning studies on the relationship between Fin-Tech lenders and banks.We contribute to the literature by directly comparing the lendingbehaviors of these two types of lenders to the same MSME borrowers through the lens ofa unique data set.As summarized in Stulz(2019),Boot et al.(2021),Thakor(2020)andBerg et al.(2022),the recent wave of financial technologies is new and has brought an abun-dance of data and codification of soft information.These developments have strengthenedscreening and monitoring,which rationalize the empirical finding that compared with banks,FinTech lenders rely more on hard information.On the one hand,many studies examine2There are studies focusing on firms technology adoption and its effect on monetary policy,but they arelimited to non-financial firms.For instance,Consolo et al.(2021)find that firms information technologyinvestment weakens the credit channel of monetary policy transmission,and Fornaro and Wolf(2021)studythe impact of monetary policy on firms technology adoption decisions.4whether FinTech lending substitutes for or complements bank lending.For instance,usingU.S.mortgage lending and personal credit data,Buchak et al.(2018),Di Maggio and Yao(2021),and Dolson and Jagtiani(2021)show that FinTech lenders use different informationto set interest rates relative to banks and are more likely to serve nonprime consumers.Using consumer lending data from LendingClub and banks in the United States,Jagtianiand Lemieux(2018)and Hughes et al.(2022)show that FinTech penetrates areas that areunderserved by banks.Suri et al.(2021)and Erel and Liebersohn(2022)find that FinTechcould improve financial access and resilience.Gopal and Schnabl(2022)document thatFinTech lenders substituted for the reduction in bank lending to small business after the2008 financial crisis.Tang(2019)and Beaumont et al.(2022)show that FinTech lendingsubstitutes bank lending for infra-marginal bank borrowers but complements bank lendingwith respect to small loans.Liu et al.(2022)compare syndicated loans by a BigTech lenderand a traditional bank in China and find that BigTech loans tend to be smaller,have higherinterest rates,and are repaid far before maturity.Buchak et al.(2021)use Chinese data toshow that FinTech facilitates the interest rate liberalization of banks through competitionin deposit-like products.Other recent studies,such as Pierri and Timmer(2022),Lin et al.(2021),Kwan et al.(2021),He et al.(2021),Hasan et al.(2022),and Modi et al.(2022),focus on technology adoption by banks and examine its impact on lending.Although Stulz(2019)highlights the special role of BigTech credit,there is little evidence on the differencein corporate lending between BigTech lenders and banks,in particular their responses tomonetary policy shocks.This study fills this gap in the literature.Third,this paper also contributes to the literature on financial innovation and economicgrowth,by highlighting the impact of BigTech credit on firm performance.Many studiesfocus on the real effects of the innovations of non-financial firms,such as Akerman et al.(2015),Beaudry et al.(2010),and Autor et al.(2003).These studies dwarf those on tech-nological innovation in the financial sector,which may spur economic growth.For instance,5Beck et al.(2016)show that banking innovation is associated with higher growth in countriesand industries with better growth opportunities.Gorton and He(2021)find that bankinginnovation contributes to economic growth by allowing banks to offer longer maturity loansto the real sector with higher productivity.By contrast,research on the real effects of Fin-Tech or BigTech credit is quite limited.Chen et al.(2022),E ca et al.(2021),Ahnert et al.(2021),and Beck et al.(2022)document that access to FinTech credit reduces sales volatil-ity,increases sales growth,and spurs firm investment and entrepreneurship.In this study,we provide further evidence to show that,compared with t