2023美国生命科学行业展望-72页-WN5.pdf

REPORT2023 U.S.Life Sciences OutlookAdaptive SpacesRising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryCBRE RESEARCHAPRIL 2023群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryExecutive SummaryAfter record years in 2020 and 2021,growth of the U.S.life sciences industry has returned to a more normal pace in 2023,although demand for lab/R&D space remains well above pre-pandemic levels.Life sciences employment reached a record high at the start of 2023,although the rate of growth slowed.The San Francisco Bay Area,Boston/Cambridge and Seattle were the fastest-growing markets last year.Recent turmoil in the banking system may cause further reductions in venture capital funding to the industry this year.Nevertheless,Q1 2023 VC funding is on pace to exceed pre-pandemic levels by roughly 20%.Robust industry R&D expenditures and public funding from the National Institutes of Health are still supporting growth.CBRE forecasts that total life sciences lab/R&D space may increase by more than 20%over the next two years,as a record-high amount of new construction is currently underway.This likely will push the vacancy rate up moderately.Lab/R&D vacancies are rising but remain well below their long-term average.Rents are still rising in most of the nations markets,albeit at a slower pace than in the past several years.Life sciences investment sales volume is down to pre-pandemic levels,but pricing remains high with cap rates at record lows amid robust investor sentiment.Industry growth this year depends on whether an economic recession occurs,as well as the stability of financial markets,but history shows the life sciences industry is more immune to these challenges than other sectors.After record years in 2020 and 2021,growth of the U.S.life sciences industry has returned to a more normal pace in a cautiously optimistic 2023.3CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryContentsEmployment04Funding11Industry Innovation18Laboratory/R&D Trends21Biomanufacturing/GMP Trends28Investment Trends31Emerging Markets34Government Incentives40Outlook42Market Profiles4501020304050607080910Employment015CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryLife sciences employment is at a record high,but its growth is slowing.Previous cycles suggest any further slowdown in employment wont be as severe as that of the broader economy.6CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific Discovery1.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.2-70-60-50-40-30-20-100102030Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23MillionsThousandsLife Sciences Employment(R Scale)Monthly Change in Employment(L Scale)Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,February 2023.FIGURE 1:U.S.Life Sciences Employment TrendsU.S.life sciences employment hit a record 2.1 million jobs at the start of 2023.Although the pace of job growth slowed to 4.1%in January 2023 from 6.3%in January 2022,it was still higher than any annual growth rate before 2019.Should a recession take hold,we expect even slower job growth in 2023.Life sciences share of the total U.S.labor force reached a near-record 1.4%last year.Research&development employmentmost notably in the biotechnology sectorgrew by 8.7%and led the overall industrys annual job growth.Since June 2022,industry employment growth has decelerated due to higher interest rates and a pullback in public and private funding for the industry.The life sciences industry added an average of 11,144 jobs per month between June 2020 and June 2022,up from 6,259 in the comparable two-year period prior to the COVID pandemic(2018-2019).In the past six months ending January 2023,however,the monthly average fell to 3,378.Life Sciences Employment Reaches Record Levels but Growth SlowsJune 2020-June 2022:Average+11,144 jobs per monthLast Six Months:Average+3,378 jobs per month7CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific Discovery01234Medical scientistsBiomedical engineersBiological scientistsTotal U.S.FIGURE 3:2022 U.S.Unemployment Rates by OccupationFIGURE 2:Number of U.S.Life Sciences Companies Announcing LayoffsLife sciences companies have announced many more layoffs in the first two months of 2023 than in 2022(Figure 2).Nevertheless,the unemployment rate for essential scientific occupations in life sciences research&development remain well below the total U.S.unemployment rate(Figure 3),suggesting underlying strength in hiring despite the layoff announcements.%0510152025303540JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20222023Source:CBRE Research,February 2023.Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,February 2023.8CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific Discovery0.800.850.900.951.001.051.10Feb-20Jun-20Oct-20Feb-210.920.940.960.981.001.021.04Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec-10Dec-110.970.980.991.001.011.021.03Mar-01Jun-01Sep-01Dec-01Mar-02Jun-02Despite the possibility of a moderate U.S.recession this year,the life sciences industry has historically been resilient to economic downturns.In each of the past three recessions,job losses in the life sciences industry were much more limited and of a shorter duration than overall U.S.job losses.We expect this same trend if a recession takes hold this year.FIGURE 4:Life Sciences Employment Levels in Past Three Recessions(1.00=employment level in first month of recession)2001Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,February 2023.2007-20092001Previous life sciences job losses were much more limited and of a shorter duration than overall U.S.job losses.2020Biotechnology R&DTotal Life SciencesTotal Nonfarm9CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryThe latest life sciences local employment data through June 2022 shows which U.S.markets had the most strength and momentum entering a slower growth phase since then.In terms of total number of persons employed in the life sciences industry,the San Francisco Bay Area was the leading metro for life sciences employment,followed by Boston/Cambridge,New Jersey,San Diego,Washington,D.C./Baltimore and New York City.FIGURE 5:Top 25 Largest Life Sciences Employment ClustersSource:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,February 2023.040,00080,000120,000160,000TampaAtlantaPittsburghMiami-Ft.LauderdaleIndianapolisSan Juan-Carolina-Caguas,PR MSASalt Lake City,UT MSAPhoenixDallas-Ft.WorthDenver-BoulderSeattleHoustonDetroitRaleigh-DurhamOrange CountyMinneapolis-St.PaulLos AngelesPhiladelphiaChicagoNew York CityWashington,D.C./BaltimoreSan DiegoNew JerseyBoston/CambridgeSan Francisco Bay Area2019Q2 2022The San Francisco Bay Area was the leading metro for life sciences employment.10CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryFIGURE 6:Top U.S.Markets for Life Sciences Employment Growth,2019 to Q2 2022Life Sciences Employment GrowthSeattleTotal:25.2%|R&D:39.3%Boston/CambridgeTotal:25.9%|R&D:28.6%New HavenTotal:21.4%|R&D:94.2%SacramentoTotal:27.3%San Francisco Bay AreaTotal:27.0%|R&D:30.9%PortlandR&D:39.9%PhoenixTotal:23.6%San DiegoTotal:17.0%|R&D:23.5%Washington,D.C./BaltimoreTotal:16.2%Raleigh-DurhamTotal:23.2%|R&D:29.7%AtlantaR&D:44.1%TampaTotal:23.9%HoustonR&D:29.2%NashvilleR&D:81.0%Dallas-Ft.WorthR&D:44.5%AustinTotal:30.0%Major Markets with Above Average Growth(Total LSci and R&D)Emerging Markets(Top 5 with Above Average Growth,(Total LSci and R&D)Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,February 2023.Research&DevelopmentBoston/Cambridge43%Washington,D.C./Baltimore49%San Francisco Bay Area40%Pharmaceutical/Medicine ManufacturingIndianapolis65%Chicago35%New Jersey30%Medical DevicesMinneapolis-St.Paul 68%Orange County48%Cleveland48%Top 3 Major Markets withinLeading Life Sciences Specialties(%of total life sciences employment)Funding0212CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoverySource:S&P Capital IQ,CBRE Research,February 2023.Figure 7:Life Sciences Research&Development ExpendituresAlthough there has been a notable pullback in life sciences venture capital investment and initial public stock offerings so far in 2023,high levels of company R&D expenditures and public funding from the National Institutes of Health will persist.Life sciences companies also have roughly$200 billion in cash and equivalents on their combined balance sheets allocated for business development and mergers&acquisitions.Life sciences company R&D expenditures have grown by an estimated 40%over the past five years.The nearly$154 billion in company R&D expenditures last year far exceeded the$21.7 billion in life sciences venture capital investment.Industry Funding Trends are MixedBillions$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$160$18020142015201620172018201920202021202213CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryVenture capital plays a pivotal role in the creation and expansion of life sciences companies.Despite a 34%year-over-year decline in annual VC funding last year to$21.7 billion,Q4 2022 recorded the first material quarterly increase in venture capital funding since early 2021 at 20%.While evidence of abundant available capital among investors provides an element of optimism for more favorable funding in 2023,recent turmoil in the banking system may restrict greater amounts of funding for emerging life sciences company expansions.The bulk of life sciences venture capital is allocated to companies in the top three premier life sciences markets of Boston/Cambridge,the San Francisco Bay Area and San Diego.Some commercial real estate investors have indicated that they will limit their focus to these three markets in the near-term due to current economic volatility.Nevertheless,funding for these three markets fell by 33.5%year-over-year in 2022,compared with a 31%decline for the rest of the top 10 markets tracked by CBRE Research.FIGURE 8:U.S.Life Sciences Venture Capital FundingSource:CB Insights,CBRE Research,2022.024681012Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Rest of U.S.Boston/CambridgeSan Francisco Bay AreaSan DiegoQ4 2022 funding 20%higher than Q3 2022 and 43%higher than 2019 average$Billions14CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryFigure 9 shows how the growth or decline of life sciences venture capital investments closely mirrors the rise or fall of industry employment.Based on the year-over-year change in annual venture capital investment,a slowdown in life sciences hiring should occur this year.However,Q4 2022 saw the first material quarter-over-quarter increase in venture capital funding since early 2021,suggesting a stabilization in hiring trends rather than a decline.FIGURE 9:Year-over-Year Changes in Life Sciences Venture Capital Investment&Employment GrowthNote:Changes in annual venture capital funding shown.Source:CB Insights,U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,January 2023.-202468-4004080120160Q4 1996Q4 1998Q4 2000Q4 2002Q4 2004Q4 2006Q4 2008Q4 2010Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022Life Sciences Emp Growth(lagged two quarters)(R Scale)Life Sciences VC Funding Growth(L Scale)Q4 Venture capital flows suggest weaker employment growth%The growth or decline of life sciences venture capital investments closely mirrors the rise or fall of industry employment.15CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryThere also has been a drop in initial public offerings(IPOs)of emerging companies.The combined value of life sciences company IPOs last year fell by 79%from 2021 but was only 27%below the pre-pandemic annual average between 2015 and 2019,suggesting that 2020-2021 was an aberration.FIGURE 10:Initial Public Offerings of Life Sciences Companies by YearSource:CB Insights,CBRE Research,February 2023.0246810122013201420152016201720182019202020212022BiotechnologyDrug DevelopmentDrug DiscoveryPharmaceuticals/DrugsDisease Diagnosis$Billions16CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryFIGURE 12:Top 10 U.S.Metros for National Institutes of Health Funding(Fiscal Year 2022)FIGURE 11:National Institutes of Health FundingSource:National Institutes of Health,CBRE Research,February 2023.Source:National Institutes of Health,CBRE Research,February 2023.051015202530354045502003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220237.9%increase 2003-201362.0%increase 2013-2023FY 2022 Funding$2019-2022 Change%New York/New Jersey3,257,868,219 23.3Boston/Cambridge3,036,176,516 8.2Washington,D.C./Baltimore2,901,105,616 23.8San Francisco Bay Area2,208,791,251 17.6Raleigh-Durham1,791,303,837 28.7Greater Los Angeles1,612,693,874 21.3Seattle1,392,535,242 29.6Philadelphia1,340,374,498 11.0San Diego1,224,153,082 21.0Chicago1,084,371,746 19.7$BillionsThe National Institutes of Health(NIH)is partly offsetting the recent drop in private funding with a budget of$47.5 billion for fiscal year 2023,up from$45.2 billion in 2022.Annual NIH funding has increased by 62%over the past 10 years.The top life sciences lab/R&D markets in the U.S.continue to receive the most NIH funding,led by the Greater New York metropolitan area.Seattle and Raleigh-Durham have been the fastest-growing markets for NIH funding since 2019.Johns Hopkins University in the Washington,D.C./Baltimore market remained the largest single recipient of NIH funding in 2022 with$839.9 million.17CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 U.S.Life Sciences Outlook|Rising Uncertainty Amid Burgeoning Scientific DiscoveryA flurry of mergers&acquisitions,as well as other business development deals,is expected this year as valuations for smaller companies fall and a patent cliff looms over the next several years.The amount of cash and equivalents on life-sciences company balance sheets has swelled since 2017(Figure 13),providin