060麦肯锡-关于软件行业的研究报告(1).pdf

0981125MU_262423_074v3.i!#$%&$()*(+,!#$%&()!()%*+$!,#&-.+/+01/%2/&304%&)$(15667(18+/3&9$(,/:%4;($?/+13#2/:,&%$3&-./(0#1&234356(7819*(:$3(;%$31981125MU_262423_074v3.iITAA WEBCAST,FEBRUARY 8,2000Introduction to Secrets of Software SuccessIndustry structure and historyIllustration of selected best practicesFuture trendsDiscussionSource:Secrets of Software Success2981125MU_262423_074v3.iITAA WEBCAST,FEBRUARY 8,2000Introduction to Secrets of Software SuccessIndustry structure and historyIllustration of selected best practicesFuture trendsDiscussionSource:Secrets of Software Success3981125MU_262423_074v3.iProfessionalSoftware ServicesSoftwareProductsPackagedSoftwareEnterpriseSolutionsSoftwareProducts&ServicesEmbeddedSoftware incl.ServicesProcessing Services(e.g.ADP)&Internet Services(e.g.Yahoo!)HardwareProductsHardwareMaintainanceServicesIT MarketSurvey andBook ScopeTop ten playersin each segment(1997 estimated revenues in specific segments)MicrosoftIBMComputerAssociatesAdobeNovellSymantecIntuitAutodeskAppleThe LearningCompanyIBMOracleComputerAssociatesSAPHPFujitsuHitachiParametricTechnologyPeoplesoftSiemensAndersenConsultingIBMEDSCSCScienceApplicationsCap GeminiHPDECFujitsuBSO Origin 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.Source:IDC,McKinsey database,McKinsey analysis11,6002,5601,0807607105505204203803505,3004,9203,7503,5101,9101,6201,5201,4101,3701,32010,2704,2603,2402,3602,1901,8101,270760700680$m$m$mRevenues1Revenues2Revenues226,63027,54018,9301 Worldwide professional software services revenues2 Worldwide software licenses and maintenance/support revenuesTOP TEN PLAYERS PER SEGMENT4981125MU_262423_074v3.i*Total revenuesSource:Secrets of software successRegionEurope(Austria,Denmark,France,Germany,Ireland,Italy,Netherlands,Luxemburg,Sweden,Switzerland)North America(Canada,US)Asia(India,Israel,Japan)9395224373915123241Business typeEnterprisesolutionsProfessionalservicesMasspackagedsoftwareSizeMid sized companies(Rev.*USD 50 million)Large companies(Rev.*USD 1 billion)Startups(Rev.*USD 10 million)DISTRIBUTION OF PARTICIPATING COMPANIES5981125MU_262423_074v3.iSCOPE AND METHODOLOGY OF SURVEY*Compound annual growth rateInterview partnersDuring the survey we did interviewswith more than 450 executives 100 companies in 15 countries on 3continents 6 of the 10 largest softwarecompanies in the world firms of all 3 industry segmentsResearch methodologyRank of companies by margin andCAGR*34 successfulcompanies32 averagecompanies34 less successfulcompaniesTest ofhypothesis withtop and lowerthird6981125MU_262423_074v3.iITAA WEBCAST,FEBRUARY 8,2000Introduction to Secrets of Software SuccessIndustry structure and historyIllustration of selected best practicesFuture trendsDiscussionSource:Secrets of Software Success7981125MU_262423_074v3.iSOFTWARE INDUSTRY ERASSource:Secrets of Software SuccessEra 5(1994-2008)The internet takes offNew internet based VAS emergeEra 4(1981-1994)PC-based software becomes a mass productMicrosoft emerges as leader of the industryEra 3(1969-1981)It becomes widely acceptable to buy softwareindependently from hardwareStrong enterprise solution providers emergeEra 2(1959-1969)First software product companies emergeIBM/360 becomes the first industrystandard platformEra 1(1949-1959)Few mega software projects provideimportant learning opportunitiesFirst software services firms set up shopCompanyexamplesNetscapeInterskyBroadVisionMicrosoftNovellIntuitSAPOracleCAADRIBMInformatCUSCSCSemaNetscapeIBM PCMS DOSIBMUnbundlingSAGEprojectADR8981125MU_262423_074v3.iUSD billionsSource:IDC,McKinsey database,McKinsey analysisProfessionalservicesEnterprisesolutionsMass productsTop 10:23%Top 10:46%Top 10:33%199319951997+20%p.a.+18%p.a.+11%p.a.1156157775545314737WORLDWIDE REVENUES AND GROWTH RATES IN THETHREE SOFTWARE INDUSTRY SEGMENTS9981125MU_262423_074v3.iPackagedsoftware1101001,00010,000100,0001,000,00010,000,000Sales units(log.)Degree ofproductizationHighMediumLow(Custom solution)Professional servicesEnterprise solutionsPRODUCT BUSINESSKEY DIFFERENCES OF THE THREE SW SEGMENTSPROFESSIONALSERVICESSource:Secrets of Software Success10981125MU_262423_074v3.iMAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PRODUCT ANDPROFESSIONAL SERVICES BUSINESSMarginal costsMarket structureRegional appearanceCustomerrelationshipMost importantnumber to watchProfessional servicesAlmost constantHighly fragmentedMainly regional,withincreasing tendencyto globalizationOne-to-oneCapacity utilizationrate1.Human resources2.Software development3.Marketing&Sales4.StrategyProduct businessAlmost zeroDrive to concentrationHighly globalizedOne-to-few,one-to-manyMarket share(installed base)1.Strategy2.Marketing&Sales3.Human Resources4.Software developmentRelevance ofmanagement areas*According to significance analysis of key success factors in each management areaSource:Global McKinsey software survey11981125MU_262423_074v3.iSOFTWARE PRODUCT AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICESBUSINESS-MANAGEMENT DIFFERENCESProfessional servicesMarketing approach Business system Marketing approach Sales approachHuman Resources Required skill set fordevelopersDevelopment Selection of productfeatures Continuity is key Long-term Excellent reputation andcustomer relationships Communication and projectmanagement skills are key Focus on individual customer requirementsStrategy Nature of business Time horizon Main goalProduct business Speed/time to market is key Short-term High market share/penetration Creativity and programmingskills are key Focus on standard product satisfying large number of customers Produce first,sell later Mass marketing Indirect and direct sales Sell first,produce later Relationship marketing Direct sales onlySource:Secrets of Software Success12981125MU_262423_074v3.iITAA WEBCAST,FEBRUARY 8,2000Introduction to Secrets of Software SuccessIndustry structure and historyIllustration of selected best practicesFuture trendsDiscussionSource:Secrets of Software Success13981125MU_262423_074v3.iGrow revenues with productsand services combinedMaintain organizational focuson product business onlyFocus on a smaller market,but“take it alone”Grow the market,butshare it with partnersManagement areasKey balances to find within the top 5 areasversus.versus.versus.PartneringService strategyPeoplemanagementFocus on short-term profitabilityby“utilizing people”efficientlyInvest in developing andretaining people long-termDevelopmentversus.BALANCE DECISIONS IN DIFFERENT MANAGEMENT AREASSource:Secrets of Software SuccessMarketingInvest in more aggressivebrand buildingInvest in personal trust-basedrelationships and keep“professional touch”versus.Emphasis on creativity andflexibility(ad-hoc culture)Emphasis on processes anddisciplined execution14981125MU_262423_074v3.iGrow revenues with productsand services combinedMaintain organizational focuson product business onlyManagement areasKey balances to find within the top 5 areasversus.versus.Service strategyPeoplemanagementFocus on short-term profitabilityby“utilizing people”efficientlyInvest in developing andretaining people long-termDevelopmentversus.Source:Secrets of Software SuccessMarketingInvest in more aggressivebrand buildingInvest in personal trust-basedrelationships and keep“professional touch”versus.BALANCE DECISIONS-PARTNERINGSource:Secrets of Software SuccessFocus on a smaller market,but“take it alone”Grow the market,butshare it with partnersversus.PartneringEmphasis on creativity andflexibility(ad-hoc culture)Emphasis on processes anddisciplined execution15981125MU_262423_074v3.iNO ONE CAN GO IT ALONE IN SOFTWARE*New Vanenburg Venture*First of such a kind worldwideSource:Secrets of Software Success,New York Times,US securities firm Evessen“Partnering is absol-utely fundamental tothe success of asoftware company”“More than 50%ofour success is due topartnering”“No one can do it bythemselves anymore.The companies thatdo not understandhow to truly parnerwill get left behind”Graham Sharman,President BaanInvestment*Henning Kagermann,CO-CEO,SAPRichard Roy,General ManagerMicrosoft GermanyJohn Chambers,President CiscoSuccessful software companieshave on average four times asmany partners as the lesssuccessful onesBaan decided to hand80%of the total valueof Baan installationsits partnersSAP launched a global“SAP Partner Academy”,an international instituteof higher education*just to train its partnersMicrosoft spends morethan USD 600 millionevery year just oncoaching its partners,and hands out 96%ofthe total value topartnersCisco signs up somany allies per yearthat it hires newpartnering managersalmost every month“In the ERP-software-businessyou cannot survivewithout partners”16981125MU_262423_074v3.iINTUITS PARTNERING MOVESSource:Secrets of Software Success,Intuit,press clippingsUSD“It was either partneror perish”Business Week June 1998Intuit faced increasingthreat from on-linefinancial servicesIn 1997,founder ScottCook decided to redirectIntuit from a stand-alonesoftware company to aninternet software andservice provider“We had to sublimate ourego and become part ofsombody elses business”William Hams Jr.,CEO Intuit80602512/957/976/9898Similarthreats fromlack ofpartners forSoftware AGand AppleIn the first six months of 1998 alone Intuit alliedwith 12 companiesExamples:Excite,Financial Times,Standardand Poor America Online,CNNfn,banksIntuit stock price17981125MU_262423_074v3.iPARTNERS ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN CLOSING CRUCIAL GAPSR&D partnersComplementaryproduct or servicepartnersMarketing partnersImplementation andmaintenancepartnersGaps to closeRequirementsoutside keycompetenciesAndersen and SAPjoint developmentin utilities andfinancial sectorMicrosoft car PCSoftware jointdevelopment withcar makersOracle databasesfor SAP R/3Retail back officesoftware fromNaviplus forNavision ERP systemIntershop softwarepromotion viahardware experts HPand Silicon GraphicsProfessional servicesplayers Ernst andYoung,Coopers andLybrand AndersenConsulting etc.withSAP,Baan,Peoplesoft etc.Keeping withextermely shorttime-to-marketsequencesBeta versions forearly applicationbuilding fromMicrosoft for KHKDistribution andlogistics modulesfrom Lanham forNavisionNice Systems voicelogging software viaIPC,Siemens,AspectBeta releases bylarge product firms toprofessional servicesfirms like TCS(India)Building marketpenertrationvolumeFinancial Times andAmerica Online infosfor Intuits webplatformSun Java licensingto Oracle,IBM,Netscape(750,000Java developers in1998)Intershop product co-marketing with 20core partners and 500sales partners incl.HP,Sun,SiliconGraphicsProfessional servicefirms ad ERP playersTypes of partnersSource:Secrets of Software Success18981125MU_262423_074v3.iPARTNERS FAR BEYOND TRADITIONAL SUPPLIERSPartnerslisted inSAPs1998supplierconferencebookletERPimplementationconsultantsAndersenconsultingCoopers andLybrandErnst&YoungDatabasemanufacturersOracleInformixSoftwareimplementationtool providersIntellicorpIDS ScheerDocumentmanagementsoftware firmsIXOSFileNetDocumentumHardwaremanufacturersCompaqDellIBMCustomers can select providerfrom each groupIn the car industry,thatwould mean customersdecide who makes thebreaks,the seats and theengine of their BMW andwho assembles it?Source:Secrets of Software Success19981125MU_262423_074v3.iBALANCE DECISIONS-PEOPLE MANAGEMENTSource:Secrets of Software SuccessGrow revenues with productsand services combinedMaintain organizational focuson product business onlyManagement areasKey balances to find within the top 5 areasversus.versus.Service strategyPeoplemanagementFocus on short-term profitabilityby“utilizing people”efficientlyInvest in developing andretaining people long-termDevelopmentversus.MarketingInvest in more aggressivebrand buildingInvest in personal trust-basedrelationships and keep“professional touch”versus.Focus on a smaller market,but“take it alone”Grow the market,butshare it with partnersversus.PartneringEmphasis on creativity andflexibility(ad-hoc culture)Emphasis on processes anddisciplined execution20981125MU_262423_074v3.iGlobal shortage of software workers346,000 vacant IT positions in the US(200,000 in theSilicon Valley alone),approx.500.000 in EuropeExtreme high turnover rates(20%p.a.)Most important growth obstacle for software companiesIncreasing demand forsoftware workers driven byStrong growth in traditionalsoftware market(18%p.a.)Exploding new segments withhigh demand for softwareknowledge(e.g.,internet)GLOBAL SOFTWARE WORKER SHORTAGEDecreasing supply of computerscience graduates until 1998Supply cycle several yearsbehind demand curveJob prospects were significantlylower in the early 90sSource:Secrets of Software Success,EstimationsNew software positions p.a.+50.000(example US)48,000Number of computer sciencegraduates(example US)198486889092949626,00021981125MU_262423_074v3.iDisadvantagesKnowledge drainLoss of personal relationships tocustomersReplacement costCultural erosionHIGH TURNOVERAdvantagesDesired refreshment/avoidance oflegacyPush innovation through new ideasFacilitate changeNew leads for recruiting candidatesWe do not regard a 20 percentturnover rate as being too critical.On the contrary,it helps us toconstantly bring in new ideas andnew fresh thinkingKerry Lamson,VP Marketing Oracle Applications23111721Average staff turnoverPercent p.a.,(US,1997)SteelAuto-mobileRetailElectro-nicsSoftwareandservicesSource:Secrets of Software Success+-22981125MU_262423_074v3.iA large SV company gives its managers a system totrack the walk-away-value(i.e.the value of stockoptions an employee would lose if he left thecompany now)for their employees on a daily basis if this value gets to low for key employees mangerscan take counter measuresTURNOVER MANAGEMENTAt a Michigan based company the CEO introduced aTypical profile of our companys employee basedon”Company-values to support recruiting sincethen turnover has decreased significantlyCISCO introduced“Fast Start”a dedicated programto bring new hires up to speed including specializedfacilities teams for setting up the infrastructure(e.g.,Fax,phone,mail)as well as sophisticated systems ofautomated e-mails to managers to remind them oftheir duties with new employeesSuccessfulturnovermanagementRetain keypeopleselectivelyHireaccordingto cultural fitBringing newhires up tospeed fastExamplesSource:Secrets of Software Success23981125MU_262423_074v3.iCOMPARISON US-EUROPEStaff turnover ratesin percent p.a.Comparison of peak salary withaverage salaryPeak salary as percentage of averageOther retainment measuresStock optionsTop developer conferences(Platinum)721115183EuropeUSEuropeUSSource:Secrets of Software Success24981125MU_262423_074v3.iEXAMPLES OF SOFTWARE COMPANIES CULTURESSource:Secrets of Software Success“Fun place to work”Self run aerobic classes,companyrock band,frequent beach parties,car racesCEO even performed Hawaiiandance dressed in wig skirt toreward an employee“Living for customer value”Focus on business value“Low tech approach”Emphasis on high business ethicsand standardsMost important thing to look atwhen hiring new employees is“Abalanced personality“Technology focus”F