贝恩+银行面临新的流动性挑战（演讲PPT）-15页-WN5.pdf

By Giulio Naso,Joe Fielding,Umberto Monai,and Christy de GooyerAPRIL 2023 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料Central banks have implemented the largest and fastest interest rate hikes in recent history,and elevated rates should persist in the near futureBanks face key challenges in deposits:Upward pressure on rates from new competitorsLower barriers to switching driven by the ease of mobile banking A culture of complacency and lack of rigor in measuring and managing liquidityInsufficient data and tools to aid decision making in high-rate environmentsAs rates have risen,the financial system moved into disequilibrium,so banks must plan for fragility,including liquidity challengesWhile most global banks currently appear well-positioned from a regulatory perspective,Bains banking health check reveals substantial variation in liquidity management performanceThe battle for rate-sensitive balances is underway.Deposit mix could rapidly shiftup to$4 trillion to term deposits in the US.Deposit rates will rise,furtherincreasing the cost of funding.Banks face big risks if they misjudge the balance between preserving profitability and retaining depositsExecutive SummaryIntegrate advanced data and analytics into customer deposit strategyPerform a liquidity health checkRedefine their funding strategy to reduce liquidity risk exposureImprove liquidity steeringImprove liquidity accuracyBanks can takeactionsCentral banks have been implementing the largest and fastest interest rate hikes in recent historySources:S&P Capital IQ;BISElevated rates are expected to persist as central banks work to curb inflationSources:BIS Central Bank Policy Rates(historical);TradingE(forecasts)ForecastWith rising rates,the interconnected financial system has moved into disequilibrium,so banks must plan for new areas of fragilityReal economyBroader financial systemExperiences significantvalue destruction,sparking debates about policy and regulation to promote growthSlows as credit gets more expensive and availability declines;suffers from collapses in specific sectorsCentral banking systemBanksCreates conditions for disruption through sustained expansionary policy followed by rapid tighteningSuffer from liquidity and capital issues stemming from asset-liability mismatch,resulting in higher deposit rates to attract consumers and shrinking loan volumesCentral banking systemBanksBroader financial systemRealeconomySource:Bain&CompanyConsumer panic/movement of depositsLiquiditychallengesIncreased defaultsIncreased deposit ratesIncreased uncertaintyContraction of real economyReducedloan volumesMore expensive creditDecreased consumer healthChanging compliance standardsSlowing of new investmentsCalls for policy changeto spur growthStrain from asset-liability mismatchRecent experience suggests regulators,ratings agencies,investors,and consumers will scrutinize liquidity more intenselyDeposit flight from small lenders spurs$98bn weekly outflow from US banking system.EU Regulators to Rethink Liquidity After Credit Suisse Unravels.When Moodys downgraded the credit-rating outlook of the U.S.banking system earlier this month,it too cited the threat to many lenders deposits:Banks with substantial unrealized securities losses and with non-retail and uninsured U.S.depositors may be more sensitive to depositor competition or ultimate flight,with adverse effects on funding,liquidity,earnings and capital.The White House said federal regulators,in consultation with the Treasury department,should consider rolling back Trump-era rules that loosened liquidity and capital requirement for banks with between$100bn and$250bn in assets.M A R C H 2 5,2 0 2 3M A R C H 2 3,2 0 2 3M A R C H 3 0,2 0 2 3M A R C H 2 9,2 0 2 3From a regulatory perspective,large banks are well-positioned in their liquidity coverage ratioNote:Data covers only banks that reported LCR for 2022Source:S&P Capital IQ01234Liquidity coverage ratio,2022Latin America andCaribbean2.0Europe(Eurozone)1.7Middle East1.7Asia-Pacific1.6Africa1.6Europe(non-Eurozone)1.6US and Canada1.2Median5th percentile95th percentileFrom a managerial perspective,banks positions are far more variedNote:Liquidity scores for each region were calculated for all banks covered by the Bain Bank Health Check Model in the region;the liquidity score for each bank was calculated based on two metricsloan-to-deposit ratio and(total debt minus liquid assets)/total assets.Source:Bain Bank Health CheckMedian5th percentile95th percentileBank health check liquidity score,2022Asia-PacificUS and CanadaAfricaEurope(Eurozone)Latin America and CaribbeanEurope(non-Eurozone)1.00.50.00.51.00.250.150.130.00-0.01-0.01-0.15Middle EastNote:US bank deposits include interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing deposits for US offices,and excludes credit unions;EU deposit totals were sourced from ECB,and the amounts of current,term,savings,and other deposits were sourced from Fitch;the total for 2022 was calculated as total deposits for 2021 times year-over-year growth as sourced from monthly ECB dataSource:S&P Capital IQ:FDIC;ECB;Fitch As savings vehicles provided few advantages,checking/current deposits grew andInterest checkingshare of totalCurrent depositshare of totalThe economics of deposits will deterioratewith increased rate competition and volatilityNote:Future projections based on 200406 deposit composition,the most recent period of high interest rates Source:FDIC;Bain&CompanyPricecompetitionIncreased volatility/reduced stickiness$4.7$1.2Time/term depositsInterest checking$3.2 trillionMoney-market accounts+other savings$8.6$0.7$7.7020406080100%Share of US interest-bearing deposits2022Potential in the near future$3 trillion to$4 trillion could shift to higher-cost time/term productsBanks must avoid a liquidity doom loop as they try to balance profitability with retaining depositsLiquidity doom loopDeposit escape due to increased competition and proliferation of attractive offers from competitorsStressed regulatory liquidity ratios due to deposit escape and absence of rigorous measurementRequirement to access more expensive forms of liquidity to stabilize both regulatory and managerial ratiosReduction of profitability,lower fund transfer pricing to deposits businessPressure to preserve deposit profitability via less-attractive offers and rates to consumersSource:Bain&CompanyTraditional banks will face key challenges in the battle for depositsCompetition from neobanks via aggressive pricing,which raises costs and reduces effective maturity of savingsSources:FDIC,Bain&Company More tech-savvycustomers with more digital banking relationshipsMobile money movement and banking making it easier than ever for customers to transfer deposits among banksThe share of US customers using Internet or mobile banking jumped from 52%in 2017 to 66%in 2021,according to the FDICPaucity of data on customer behavior in a high-rate environment impedes data-driven decision making on pricing and offersComplacent culture and insufficient rigor in liquidity measurement and management in the new context of high-cost and scarce liquidityCompetitionTech-savvy customersMobile money movement Complacentculture Paucity of data Banks can take five steps to address this new context and attain liquidity management excellenceLiquidity health checkFunding strategyLiquidity steeringCustomer deposit strategyLiquidity accuracySource:Bain&Company Revise funding strategy to reduce liquidity risk exposure without suffering substantial losses Evolve processes,activities,tools,and policies to steer commercial activity toward healthy liquidity outcomesIntegrate advanced data and analytics into deposit pricing and product offering strategyIncrease rigor of liquidity measurement and calculation via improved data management and processes;more accurately represent liquidity coverage ratio and nonfinancial risk to the regulator and marketAssess current and future liquidity positions(under both stress scenarios and status quo approaches)to estimate the degree of vulnerability of liquidity/asset and liability management positions群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料