印度：下一个化工制造中心-28页-WN6.pdf

March 2023India:The next chemicals manufacturing hub群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料AuthorsAvinash Goyal Ayush Gupta Chris Musso Jakob Fischer Marco Moder Nitika Nathani Rupali Jain Sanchay Vaidya Ulrich WeiheIndia:The next chemicals manufacturing hubAcknowledgmentsMcKinsey&Company would like to thank the Indian Chemical Council(ICC)for inviting us to be the knowledge partner for their 16th annual summit on India Chemical Industry Outlook.We are particularly grateful to Bimal L.Goculdas(President,ICC and MD,DMCC Specialty Chemicals),Kamal P.Nanavaty(Chairman of Expert Committee Conference&Exhibition,ICC and President,Reliance Industries)and Rajen Mariwala(Vice President,ICC and MD,Eternis Fine Chemicals).Multiple industry leaders shared their valuable insights,we would like to thank Ravi Kapoor(MD,Heubach Colour),Rajendra Gogri(CMD,Aarti Industries),Kartik Bharatram(Deputy MD,SRF),Suresh Ramachandran(Country Head&Managing Director,Arkema India),Pankaj Mehta(President and Strategy Head,Aarti Industries),Vivek Gadre(President,Atul),Raghunadhan A V(Chief General Manager,IOCL)and Soutrik Ganguli(Policy Analyst,Reliance Industries).A special thank you to Sanjoy Bhattacharya and Sothi Selvam Dhandapani(Director General,ICC)for their guidance.Several colleagues around the globe contributed immensely to shaping this report.We are very grateful to Craig Poppleman,Divy Malik,Lalit Naik,and Victor Gujik for their inputs.The report was made possible through the efforts of the McKinsey working team that included Ayush Gupta,Kundan Parashar,Nitesh Dutt,Rishi Juthani,Sanchay Vaidya,Vedika Gulati,and Vibhor Agarwal.We also thank Sarath Kumar,Saravanan Mani and Vikas Gujaran from the Visual Aids team for designing the report and Akriti Agrawal,Amrutha Penumudi,Anamika Mukharji,Fatema Nulwala,Raksha Shetty,Rohan Moorthy,and Sankalp Khandelwal from the McKinsey Communications team for their editorial inputs.AuthorsAvinash Goyal Senior Partner,IndiaAyush Gupta Engagement Manager,IndiaChris Musso Senior Partner,USAJakob Fischer Senior Partner,JapanMarco Moder Partner,South KoreaNitika Nathani Partner,IndiaRupali Jain Partner,IndiaSanchay Vaidya Engagement Manager,IndiaMarch 2023ContentsExecutive summary 2An era of sustained robust growth:The 2040 outlook 4Benchmarking Indias manufacturing competitiveness in chemicals Potential winning opportunities in Indias chemical sector 16Implications and questions for Indian and global companies to reflect on821Indias chemical industry has been a global outperformer in demand growth and shareholder wealth creation over the last decade.It now stands poised to play an increasingly dominant role across both consumption and manufacturing in the global arena.Over recent years,changing geopolitical scenarios have led to many countries focusing on domestic self-sufficiency and localized supply chains.However,benchmarking Indias manufacturing competitiveness reveals that India has a strong starting point vs other key global chemical clusters that could translate into India becoming the next chemicals manufacturing hub.India:The fastest growing global demand center for chemicalsDomestic consumption in India is set to grow at a 9-10 percent CAGR in the coming years as illustrated in Exhibit 2,on the back of rising disposable incomes,a favorable demographic dividend,increasing global preference for biofriendly alternatives,and growing diversification of global chemical supply chains1.With this growth,Indias share in the global chemicals sector could triple to 10-12 percent by 2040,creating an additional USD 700 billion market value,over and above the current contribution of USD 170-180 billion(as of 2021).The Specialty Chemicals segment is likely to be a key driver of this growth.It has the potential to contribute more than USD 20 billion to Indias net exports by 2040,a 10 x jump from the current total of USD 2 billion as shown in Exhibit 3.Benchmarking Indias manufacturing competitiveness in chemicals Benchmarking against six global chemical clusters surfaces both Indias strengths and areas of improvement as a global destination for manufacturing chemicals.Indian chemical companies often face obstacles in feedstock availability due to lagging cracker capacity and low access to building blocks and key minerals.Additionally,India faces dearth of skilled R&D talent and challenges in timely EC&land approvals.Despite this,India is cost competitive in several chemical segments due to low capital and operating expenses such as labour,utility and overhead expenses etc.Coupled with promoters focus on high profitability and a culture of process innovation,Indian chemical companies generate one of the highest EBITDA per unit of investment in fixed assets.This is evident from global leadership of multiple Indian firms across segments like Agrochemicals,Pharma Intermediates,Dyes&Pigments,Carbon Black etc.Potential winning opportunities in Indias chemical sectorMany sub-segments in Indias chemicals sector offer opportunities for building at-scale businesses.Winning plays exist across Specialty Chemicals(agrochemicals,flavors&fragrances,cosmetic chemicals,etc.),Inorganic Chemicals(caustic,fluorine,etc.)and petrochemicals(C4,C6 and C8 derivatives).These sub-segments score high on both cost competitivenessa function of domestic feedstock availability,trade balance,capacity utilization,scope of process and tech innovation,etc.and market attractiveness,an indicator of market size,demand growth,export potential,etc.The future of Indian chemical sector looks promising,and the country could potentially become the driving force of the demand&supply of the world chemical market.Having said this,it becomes imperative for the global companies to understand the implications and reflect upon the resource allocation mix,the business model and the overall business strategy,before commencing or scaling up their operations in the country.Further,Indian companies need to ponder upon questions around right type of business,the right mode of entry,the feasibility variables,the global footprint from the go-to-market&asset perspective,leveraging the existing supply chain,if possible,among others.1 Including value created by the pharmaceuticals sectorExecutive summary2India:The next chemicals manufacturing hub1.An era of sustained robust growth:The 2040 outlookOver the last few years,the Indian chemicals sector has exceeded all shareholder expectations,outperforming not just the overall equity market(Exhibit 1)but also the majority of its upstream and downstream industries.This exceptional growth has been fueled by consistent revenue expansion,increasing margins,and rise in multiples.The sector is projected to grow at 11-12 percent during 2021-27 and 7-10 percent during 2027-40 tripling its global market share by 2040.This growth is expected to be driven by a range of factors:Rising domestic consumption:India is expected to account for more than 20 percent of incremental global consumption for chemicals over the next two decades.Domestic consumption and demand is expected to rise from USD 170-180 billion in 2021 to USD 850-1000 billion by 2040(Exhibit 2).Changing consumer preferences:The growing demand for biofriendly products globally could benefit India,as it is among the leading producers of many chemicals that are used in such products.Shifting supply-chains:Triggered by the evolving geopolitical scenario and the trend to diversify from the existing core manufacturing markets;firms are seeking to make their supply-chains more resilient.With its strong value proposition,India could be a preferred destination.Exhibit 1TRS performance trends of top chemical companies across geographies I In nd de ex xe ed d T To ot ta al l S Sh ha ar re eh ho ol ld de er rs s R Re et tu ur rn n (T TS SR R),Dec 11=100,USDC Cu ummu ul la at ti iv ve e T TS SR R,C CA AG GR R,P Pe er rc ce en nt tD De ec c 2 20 01 11 1 D De ec c 2 20 02 22 2D De ec c 2 20 01 17 7 D De ec c 2 20 01 19 9D De ec c 2 20 01 11 1 D De ec c 2 20 01 17 7D De ec c 2 20 01 19 9 D De ec c 2 20 02 22 2Note:Top 500 global companies considered for the analysis27171181481402-9-3-9-8Source:Capital IQ1 Rest of World includes companies across Middle East,Africa,Latin America,Australia&New Zealand20002023228001720194001860016132115141,0002012North AmericaIndiaEuropeGreater ChinaRest of WorldJapanAsia ex.China,India,Japan1866159-411201187552Asia ex.China,India,JapanRest of World1IndiaChinaJapanNorth AmericaEurope4India:The next chemicals manufacturing hubWidening trade deficitIndias current trade deficit,at USD 9-10 billion2,is expected to balloon to USD 40-42 billion by 2040.While exports are projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5-10 percent to USD 140-145 billion by 2040,imports are likely to match growth at a CAGR of 9-9.5 percent to USD 180-185 billion(Exhibit 3).2 Basis Ex-Im data by UN Comtrade and McKinsey mapping of 6 digit HS Codes to chemical segments(inorganic,specialty and chemical)Exhibit 3Indias chemicals sector is expected to have a trade deficit of$40-42 Bn by 2040;Specialty Chemicals has the potential to contribute$20 Bn to net exportsI In nd di ia a C Ch he emmi ic ca al ls s T Tr ra ad de e B Ba al la an nc ce e,USD Bn1352157320402021ExportsImports5281720212040141018602040202133242040140-1452021180-185I In nd di ia a C Ch he emmi ic ca al ls s s se eg gmme en nt t-w wi is se e E Ex xp po or rt ts s a an nd d I Immp po or rt ts s,$BnSpecialtyInorganicPetchem19.7%9.4%8.7%7.5%11%9.2%11.2%10.8%9-1040-42220421641xxxxNet exports($Bn)Net imports($Bn)Note:Excludes fertilizers,pharma end-products and consumer products;includes pharma intermediate chemicalsSource:MoCPC report(Chemical&Petrochemical Statistics at a Glance 2021),Invest India,“India Petrochemicals Scenario 2040”by EIL and IOCL,IHS Markit,UNComtrade,McKinsey Global Institute,McKinsey Fertilizer Demand Model,Press search1 2040 projections assume that the ratio of imports/consumption and exports/consumption at sub-segment level remain the same in 2020 and 2040Exhibit 2India is expected to become a$850-1000 Bn chemicals market by 2040,taking 10-12%share of the global chemicals marketI In nd di ia a c ch he emmi ic ca al ls s mma ar rk ke et t,USD BnSource:MoCPC 2021 report:Chemical&Petrochemical Statistics at a Glance,Invest India,“India Petrochemicals Scenario 2040”by EIL and IOCL,IHS Markit,UN Comtrade,McKinsey Global Institute,Press searchIndia Chem as%of Global ChemCAGR(Percent)2021-272027-403290-100250-30060-65140-19095-100350-37050-602027204025-305160170-180252021850-1000290-3101565-75189 9-1 10 0%p p.a a.Inorganic1Pet-Chem2FertilizersOthers3Specialty11 2027 estimations basis sub-sector level CAGRs from IHS Markit;2040 projections basis end-use sector nominal GVA CAGR(weighted)2 Estimated basis EIL 2020 and 2040 projections;5%price CAGR assumed for 2021,2027 and 2040 projections3 Includes pharma products(vaccines,injectables,OSDs,medical devices etc.)as per NICs industry division 21.Also includes some personal care consumer products(e.g.Shampoo,hair oil,toothpastes,soaps etc.)as NICs industry division 205.2%10-12%3-3.5%3 3-4 4x x11.5%11%11%6%8-9%7-9.5%8-9%10-11%5-6%8%Note:2040 projections assume that the ratio of imports/consumption and exports/consumption at sub-segment level remain the same in 2020 and 2040.Govt.policies could change this mix over time.5India:The next chemicals manufacturing hubOut of the three main segments of the sectorInorganic3,Petrochemicals4 and Specialty5only Specialty is expected to be a net exporter.By 2040,its net exports are expected to rise by around ten times,from about USD 2 billion in 2021 to USD 21 billion.Almost 80 percent of the exports in the segment would come from four sub-segments:agrochemicals,dyes and pigments,cosmetics and personal care,and food ingredient chemicals(Exhibit 4).Due to limited cracker infrastructure and scarcity of key feedstock and minerals,both Petchem and Inorganic segments will have a trade deficit.At USD 41 billion,Petchems deficit will be almost twice as large as Inorganics USD 21 billion(Exhibit 3).Imports in Petchem would likely be fragmented across products,with the two largest imported products,PVC and Polypropylene accounting for just 13 and 8 percent of imports,respectively.Exports in the segment,meanwhile,will be driven by the C8(Paraxylene)and C6(Benzene)building blocks and bulk polymers PP,LLDPE and HDPE.In the Inorganic segment,imports will be driven by Phosphorus,Potassium and Titanium(together accounting for 70%of total imports)and exports by Carbon Black,Sodium and Titanium(together accounting 65%of total exports)as can be seen in Exhibit 43 Includes Potassium,Bromine,Caustic,Carbon Black,Fluorine,Sodium,Phosphorus,Titanium,Calcium,Silicon and Sulphur4 Includes building blocks(C1-C8),intermediates and end-products5 Specialty chemicals include:Dyes&Pigments,Agrochemicals,Electronic chemicals,Flavors and Fragrances,Cosmetic chemicals,Nutraceutical ingredients,Food&Feed additives,Plastics additives,Rubber-processing chemicals,Adhesives and sealants,Construction chemicals,Specialty polymers,Cleaners,industrial and institutional,Surfactants,Textile chemicals,Water management chemicals,Paper chemicals,Flame retardants,Lubricating oil additives,Antioxidants,Petroleum refining and chemical process catalysts,Biocides,and Corrosion inhibitorsExhibit 44-5 key segments could drive 50%+of trade balance across Specialty,Inorganic and PetchemNote:Excludes fertilizers,pharma end-products and consumer products;includes pharma intermediate chemicals Source:MoCPC report(Chemical&Petrochemical Statistics at a Glance 2021),Invest India,“India Petrochemicals Scenario 2040”by EIL and IOCL,IHS Markit,UN Comtrade,McKinsey Global Institute,McKinsey Fertilizer Demand Model,Press searchMMa aj jo or r c co on nt tr ri ib bu ut to or rs s t to o e ex xp po or rt t/i immp po or rt t,2 20 04 40 0,USD Bn40%27%7%5%19%3%32%22%11%10%25%20%14%9%9%8%41%Sub-segment export,%Sub-segment import,%SpecialtyInorganicPetchem26%18%6%9%5%36%36%21%15%7%21%13%8%5%5%65%5%PETPolyester Fiber(Filament)Polypropylene(PP)ParaxyleneBenzeneOthersFood&Feed additivesCosmetic ChemicalsDyes&PigmentsFlavors&FragrancesOthersAgrochemicalsOthersTitaniumSodiumCausticCarbon BlackHDPESBRPolypropyleneOthersSAPPVCTitaniumPotassiumCarbon BlackOthersPhosphorusCosmetic ChemicalsFlame RetardantsDyes&PigmentsPlastic AdditivesOthersAgrochemicalsSpecialtyInorganicPetchem6India:The next chemicals manufacturing hubBenchmarking Indias manufacturing competitiveness in chemicalsExhibit 5Macro BenchmarkingGlobal chemicals manufacturing hubs selected for benchmarking against IndiaChinaIndonesiaSaudi A