澳大利亚电池产业的未来-72页-WN5.pdf

Charging AheadAustralias battery powered futureFinal ReportMarch 2023群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料About AccentureAccenture is a leading global professional services company that helps the worlds leading businesses,governments and other organisations build their digital core,optimise their operations,accelerate revenue growth and enhance citizen servicescreating tangible value at speed and scale.We are a talent and innovation led company with 738,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries.Technology is at the core of change today,and we are one of the worlds leaders in helping drive that change,with strong ecosystem relationships.We combine our strength in technology with unmatched industry experience,functional expertise and global delivery capability.We are uniquely able to deliver tangible outcomes because of our broad range of services,solutions and assets across Strategy&Consulting,Technology,Operations,Industry X and Accenture Song.These capabilities,together with our culture of shared success and commitment to creating 360value,enable us to help our clients succeed and build trusted,lasting relationships.We measure our success by the 360 value we create for our clients,each other,our shareholders,partners and communities.Visit us at About Future Battery Industries CRCFBICRC was established in 2019 through the Australian Governments Cooperative Research Centre Program.It brings together partners with a presence across the battery value chain from Australias established strength in mining through to processing,manufacture,services and recycling and reuse of batteries.Through investment with its partners in a portfolio of research,development and education programs it seeks to address challenges associated with the energy transition and capture the significant economic opportunities for Australia from the rising demand for batteries.Many of these issues can only be addressed in collaborative efforts along the value chain.The FBICRC provides a platform to enable this collaboration.It is the largest partnership of industry,government organisations and research partners focused on battery industries in Australia with 73 participants.Visit us at .auWe are grateful to the following organisations that have supported the development of this report:Acknowledgements:Report commissioned by:The rapid growth of global demand and the increased forecast value of battery packs has amplified the opportunity for Australia.Diversified battery industries in Australia could now contribute A$16.9 billion gross value added(GVA)and 61,400 jobs to the economy by 2030,which is more than double the GVA contribution of A$7.4 billion forecast in Future Charge.The demand for batteries has grown significantly.We now forecast that demand for batteries in 2030 is 64%higher than previous estimates,with the annual growth rate of battery demand accelerating from 24%to 34%.Material shortages have driven long-term price increases for batteries.Lithium,nickel,graphite and cobalt all face structural supply shortages by 2030.This expected shortage has increased the 2030 forecast price of lithium-ion battery packs by 35%.The dynamics of the global battery industries have changed rapidly,and Australia must act quickly and decisively to capture the economic and strategic opportunity of diversified battery industries.There are six key policy strategies that Australian governments should implement to build an internationally competitive battery industries at speed and scale:Alliances and incentivesIndustry attractionIndustry coordinationRegional export partnershipsIncrease domestic demandSpecialist battery institute.Globally,governments are adopting increasingly ambitious industry policies to grow their battery industries.This has narrowed Australias window of opportunity to compete on an international scale.China is currently the dominant player across the battery value chain.However,many countries are now seeking to diversify their battery supply chains,creating opportunities for alternative suppliers such as Australia.Australias strategic and defence partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region have strengthened,creating an opportunity for Australia to partner with its allies to develop its battery industries.Australia has key sources of differentiation across the value chain and is cost comparable with peers,but global subsidies are eroding Australias cost position,particularly in battery manufacturing.To drive greater competitive advantage,Australia will need to leverage its:Critical mineral wealth;to drive cost synergies through vertical integration and co-location,and to provide unique supply diversity.Reliability and security;to position Australia as an alternative secure source of supply,enabling countries to diversify their supply chain and secure materials for their growing domestic battery industries.Environmental,social and governance(ESG)credentials;to differentiate Australia against rivals as a responsible provider of battery materials and products.Executive summaryAustralia now has the opportunity to build thriving domestic battery industries that will provide$16.9 billion in gross value added and support 61,400 jobs by 2030The growth of global battery industries has accelerated rapidly,and the opportunity for Australia is now more than double previous forecasts.Governments must act quickly and decisively to capture midstream and downstream value in global battery industries.Major global economies are now vying for greater shares of the battery value chain,creating both opportunities and challenges for Australias battery industries.Australia will need to lean into its comparative advantages of mineral diversity,reliability,security and ESG credentials to be competitive across the value chain.Highlighted a rapidly growing market for batteriesWhen Future Charge was released in 2021,the global battery market was forecast to grow at 24%per annum to 2030,increasing nine to tenfold compared to 2020.Identified how Australia could compete across the value chainThe report identified how Australia could compete globally by leveraging upstream cost advantages,its position as a reliable nation and through specialisation opportunities.Evaluated the economic opportunity for AustraliaFuture Charge estimated that diversified battery industries could contribute A$7.4 billion in GVA and 34,700 jobs to the Australian economy by 2030.Provided an overview of key policies for government considerationFour key policy objectives were laid out,with high-level recommendations for government to meet each objective.The dynamics of global battery industries have rapidly changed,and Australia must act quickly to capture the economic and strategic opportunity Future Charge highlighted the opportunity for Australia in the global battery market,and provided a high-level path for Australia to capture that valueSince Future Charge,the global battery market has taken off,and Australia must act now if it wants to compete and capture the greater-value opportunity now at stakeThe demand for batteries is growing much faster than anticipatedGlobal battery demand is now forecast to grow at 34%per annum to 2030,increasing 18-fold on 2020 levels.This represents a 64%increase in demand in 2030 relative to previous forecasts.The market for batteries is now far more competitiveMajor global governments have accelerated their efforts to capture value in the global battery market and build their sovereign capabilities.Australia will need to lean into its comparative advantages,particularly mineral wealth,to be competitive.The size of the economic opportunity is now much larger The growth in global demand for batteries,coupled with supply shortages of key critical minerals,has greatly increased the size of the opportunity for Australia.Diversified industries could now contribute A$16.9 billion and 61,400 jobs to Australias economy.Quick and decisive action from government is required if Australia wants to capture the economic opportunity available Given the accelerated pace with which battery industries are developing and consolidating,Australian governments will need to act quickly to support battery industries to capture shares in high-value market segments.Mining-focused industriesAustralia remains focused on capturing opportunities from mining raw battery materials,which have expanded based on the rapid uptake of batteries globally and subsequent increases in raw material prices.Diversified battery industriesAustralia builds from its mining strength to capture the opportunities from developing diversified battery industries,including downstream activities.These opportunities have expanded due to the growth in global and domestic demand for batteries.Future Charge 2030 forecastPath 1Path 2in gross value added$7.4 billion direct jobs34,700in gross value added$4.1 billion direct jobs18,700Updated 2030 forecastin gross value added$16.9 billion direct jobs61,400in gross value added$10.4 billion direct jobs31,600in additional GDP$25.8 billion in additional GDP$55.2 billion in additional GDP$8.9 billion in additional GDP$23.6 billion Notes:Figures in Australian currency.Future Charge released in 2021.Modelling assumptions are in the appendix.Source:FBI CRC(2021);IEA(2022a,2022b,2022c,2022d);McKinsey(2022);BNEF(2022a,2022b,2022c);AEMO(2022a,2022b,2022c,2022d);Wood Mackenzie(2022);Renew Economy(2022a,2022b);Energy Storage News(2022);SolarRun(2022);Department of Energy and Public Works(2022);Batteries Europe(2021);CSIRO(2021);Accenture analysis.Australias battery industries could contribute$16.9 billion to the economy by 2030,more than double previous forecasts5Contents03Australia must leverage its comparative advantages of mineral diversity,supply chain reliability and high ESG standards to compete internationally2502As competition between global battery industries has intensified,Australia must now expedite more targeted and comprehensive policies to compete1301With the accelerating growth of the global battery market,diversified battery industries could now contribute A$16.9 billion to the Australian economy in 2030704To build diversified battery industries,fast and comprehensive action from government is required3905Appendix49With the accelerating growth of the global battery market,diversified battery industries could now contribute A$16.9 billion to the Australian economy by 203001,0002,0003,0004,00020152020202520303,7002,300+64%Historic data2020 Future Charge forecast2022 updated forecastCAGR24%34%Notes:The 2022 updated forecast is an evenly weighted average of three scenarios:the McKinsey Base Case Scenario,BNEF Economic Transition Scenario and the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario.The 2020 Future Charge forecast is the 2020 Roskill projection as it was used for market sizing in the report.Sources:IEA(2022,2022,2022,2022);McKinsey(2022);BNEF(2022);EY(2022);ICCT(2022);BNEF(2022);US Congress(2022);European Commission(2019,2021).Economic opportunity demand Growth in global demand for batteries has accelerated since 2020 forecasts,with 64%additional demand expected by 2030Global battery demand is now forecast to increase by 18 times from 2020 to 2030,compared to the previous forecast of a nine to tenfold increase.The revised demand projection can be attributed to increased adoption of electric vehicles and stationary storage,and a global acceleration in the energy transition.Increased adoption of electric vehicles is the key driver behind the forecast growth in battery demand,with demand for batteries in stationary storage also contributing to global battery demand.Global EV uptake in 2030 is now forecast to be 94%higher than was forecast in 2021.EVs include electric buses,two-wheelers,commercial vehicles and passenger EVs.Passenger EVs represent the largest share of forecast EV uptake.In addition,forecasts of stationary storage installations have increased by 4%since 2020 forecasts.Governments globally have accelerated the energy transition,in part by subsidising their domestic battery industries.For example,the USs Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)will deploy at least US$369 billion into clean energy investments over the next ten years,providing tax incentives across all battery value chain segments.Averaging over US$36 billion in investment per year,the IRA investment surpasses previous clean energy subsidy programs,such as Chinas wind and solar subsidies which were less than US$10 billion per year.Other countries and jurisdictions are also investing heavily in their battery industries.The European Union has approved over US$6 billion in public funding to support innovative projects across the battery value chain,while India has allocated over US$2 billion in grants to support gigafactory construction.Exhibit 1:Global battery demand,projected to 2030GWh per annum,2020=latest actual dataNotes:Forecast supply and demand for nickel,cobalt and graphite are in the appendix.Sources:IEA(2021,2022,2022);BCG(2022);S&P Global(2022);Benchmark Minerals Intelligence(2022);NRDC(2022);Reuters(2022,2022);Frontier Group(2022);Cobalt Institute(2022,2022);World Bank(2022);Sumitomo Metal(2022);Stratas Advisors(2022);Resources Rising Stars(2022);World Economic Forum(2022);International Graphite(2022);Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data(2022,2022,2022);Wood Mackenzie data(2022);Industrial Metal Service(2022);Walkabout(2022);Utility Dive(2022);Accenture analysis.0.42.94.620352.820201.41.820250.520303.5Mines in operationLithium demandProbable new extractionPossible new extractionRecyclingThere are supply concerns regarding several critical battery materials,particularly lithium,nickel,cobalt and graphite.The supply of lithium is forecast to fall short of demand by 2030.Strong demand for EVs is expected to drive lithium demand over the next decade.However,new supply is not coming online at the rate needed to match surging demand.This is due to low lithium prices in 2018-2020 causing an under-investment in lithium mining.Furthermore,the capabilities and expertise required to refine lithium into battery chemicals are concentrated in a handful of countries,which is limiting new potential production.Current nickel production is forecast to not meet demand in 2035.Mining and processing industries are struggling to keep up with the demand for battery-grade nickel used in EV batteries.In addition,global supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war have also contributed to the shortage of nickel.Nickel is expected to remain in a supply deficit for the third straight year in 2023.Economic opportunity supply Exhibit 3:Expected date of shortage for nickel,graphite and c