世界可再生能源展望-87页-WN6.pdf

Renewable Energy Market UpdateOutlook for 2023 and 2024群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution.The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.All rights reserved.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech Republic Denmark EstoniaFinland France Germany Greece HungaryIreland ItalyJapanKoreaLithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand NorwayPoland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineRenewable Energy Market Update June 2023 PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The key areas examined by the report include the latest data and analysis on renewable power capacity additions in 2022 globally and for major markets as well as forecasts for 2023 and 2024.The update will look at key topics for renewables this year and next,including how the energy crisis will affect their deployment in the EU,their impact on energy affordability,and the latest trends in the United States,China and India.It will also explore the implications of developments affecting major technologies like solar,wind and biofuels including market dynamics,financing,energy security priorities,manufacturing and power system integration.The report provides the IEAs latest assessment of the state of play in renewables markets since the publication of our Renewables 2022 report in December.In exploring the most recent market and policy developments as of April 2022,our Renewable Energy Market Update forecasts new global renewable power capacity additions and biofuel demand for 2023 and 2024.It also discusses key uncertainties and policy-related implications that may affect projections for 2024 and beyond.Renewable Energy Market Update June 2023 PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security.It was designed and directed by Heymi Bahar,Senior Analyst.The report benefited from analysis,drafting and input from multiple colleagues.The lead authors of the report were,Yasmina Abdelilah,Heymi Bahar,Trevor Criswell,Piotr Bojek,Franois Briens,Jeremy Moorhouse and Laura Mari Martinez,who was also responsible for data management.The report also benefited from analysis and drafting from Kazuhiro Kurumi and Kartik Veerakumar.Paolo Frankl,Head of the Renewable Energy Division,provided strategic guidance and input to this work.Valuable comments,feedback and guidance were provided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA,in particular,Keisuke Sadamori.The authors would also like to thank Kristine Douaud for skilfully editing the manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office,in particular Poeli Bojorquez,Jon Custer,Astrid Dumond,Jad Mouawad,Barbara Moure,Jethro Mullen,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin,Julie Puech,Robert Stone,Clara Vallois,Lucile Wall and Therese Walsh for their assistance.In addition,Ivo Letra from the Office of Management and Administration supported data management.Renewable Energy Market Update June 2023 PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.8 Introduction.13 Did all renewable electricity technologies break deployment records in 2022?.16 Solar PV was the only technology to break a record for annual capacity additions.16 Wind power capacity additions decreased the past two consecutive years.17 Will renewable electricity capacity additions continue to break new records in 2023 and 2024?.18 2023:Solar PV dominates growth,and onshore wind additions rebound to break the 2020 record.18 2024:Another record year for global capacity additions,led by solar PV.19 How will the energy crisis affect EU renewable energy deployment in 2023 and 2024?21 Rapid distributed solar PV growth is the main reason for the upwards forecast revision.21 Permitting challenges and limited participation in competitive auctions prevent faster growth of utility-scale wind and solar PV.23 How are European countries addressing permitting challenges to accelerate renewable energy development?.24 Permitting has finally become a key policy focus in Europe.24 How much less money is the European Union spending on expensive electricity thanks to additional renewable energy capacity?.28 Reduced Russian natural gas supplies and multi-year lows in hydro and nuclear output led to an unparalleled increase in the EU wholesale electricity spot price.29 New PV and wind capacity is expected to provide savings of EUR 100 billion since the beginning of the energy crisis.30 Will hydropower in Europe recover in 2023 following a severe drought last year?.32 To what extent can renewable energy use displace gas consumption in EU buildings in 2023 and 2024?.34 Will Chinas role in global renewable energy deployment decline in 2023 and 2024?.37 Chinas contribution to global renewable capacity additions is expected to increase in 2023 and 2024 thanks to distributed solar PV and wind.37 Chinas increasing solar PV and wind manufacturing capabilities will maintain a strong domestic demand.38 Will the US inflation Reduction Act impact wind and PV deployment in the short term?.40 Trade and supply chain concerns led to lower capacity additions in 2022,but wind and PV expansion will accelerate this year.40 The Inflation Reduction Acts impact on renewable energy technology deployment will become evident in 2025.41 Renewable Energy Market Update June 2023 PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Will Indias renewable energy deployment boom in 2023 and 2024?.42 Higher prices,lower auction volumes and trade policies weigh on short-term PV deployment.42 Large-scale PV manufacturing is emerging,but it creates short-term demand and supply mismatches.43 Are competitive renewable energy auctions increasingly undersubscribed?.45 The energy crisis has negatively affected participation in European auctions.45 Will market forces now drive the expansion of wind and solar PV plants,or is policy still key?.48 Economic attractiveness and consumer demand drive PPA growth in the United States.49 Competitive auctions drive European growth in 2023-2024,but the pace will depend on policy responses to volatile wholesale prices and rising costs.50 Is the renewable energy industrys financial health improving?.53 Multiple challenges have tested the financial health of renewable energy companies since 2019.53 A bright future for the financial health of the renewable energy industry is on the horizon,but it requires governments and the industry to tackle multiple challenges.55 Will solar PV and wind costs finally begin to fall again in 2023 and 2024?.57 Do higher shares of wind and solar PV generation always imply more curtailment?.60 The importance of grid intrastructure.61 Policy and system planning.62 Market design and operation.62 How are higher shares of wind and solar PV challenging power systems?.64 Will global solar PV and wind technology manufacturing capacity be adequate to meet Net Zero demand in 2030?.66 With PV manufacturing capacity to more than double by 2024,the industry is rushing headlong into a supply glut.66 Announced new PV manufacturing in India,the United States and Europe reaches 30 GW for polysilicon and 100 GW for module assembly,with signs of diversification emerging.66 China leads sluggish growth in wind equipment manufacturing as Western equipment suppliers struggle financially.68 Where were governments able to rely on biofuels to secure energy supplies during the 2022 energy crisis?.70 Some markets increased biofuel production to mitigate high prices and address supply concerns.71 but overall biofuel demand growth declined by 40%during the energy crisis.71 Will energy security concerns drive biofuel growth in 2023-2024?.73 Emerging markets to lead growth in 2023-2024.73 Renewable diesel growth remains strong in advanced economies,but overall biofuel demand expansion will not accelerate by 2024.74 Will we see lower biofuel prices in 2023-2024?.77 Advanced biofuel imports drive down biodiesel costs in Europe.78 Renewable diesel growth supports higher vegetable oil prices in the United States.78 Renewable Energy Market Update June 2023 PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.High Brazilian sugar and soybean production supports domestic and international demand increases.79 What are governments and companies doing to avoid a supply crunch,and is it enough?.81 The feedstock supply crunch.81 Government policies and market reactions are encouraging the largest-ever expansion in new biofuel technologies.82 More efforts are needed to expand feedstock supplies.83 General annex.84 Abbreviations and acronyms.84 Units of measure.85 Renewable Energy Market Update June 2023 PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Led by solar PV,renewable power growth is surging driven by the global energy crisis and policy momentum Global renewable capacity additions are set to soar by 107 gigawatts(GW),the largest absolute increase ever,to more than 440 GW in 2023.This is equivalent of more than the entire installed power capacity of Germany and Spain combined.This unprecedented growth is being driven by expanding policy support,growing energy security concerns and improving competitiveness against fossil fuel alternatives.These factors are outweighing rising interest rates,higher investment costs and persistent supply chain challenges.Solar PV capacity,including both large utility-scale and small distributed systems,accounts for two-thirds of this years projected increase in global renewable capacity.In response to higher electricity prices caused by the global energy crisis,policy makers in many countries,particularly in Europe,have actively sought alternatives to imported fossil fuels that can improve energy security.This shifting focus created a favourable environment for solar PV,especially for residential and commercial systems that can be rapidly installed to meet growing demand for renewable energy.These smaller distributed PV applications are on track to account for half of this years overall deployment of solar PV larger than the total deployment of onshore wind over the same period.Following two consecutive years of decline,onshore wind capacity additions are on course to rebound by 70%in 2023 to 107 GW,an all-time record amount.This is mainly due to the commissioning of delayed projects in China following last years Covid-19 restrictions.Faster expansion is also expected in Europe and the United States as a result of supply chain challenges pushing project commissioning from 2022 into 2023.On the other hand,offshore wind growth is not expected to match the record expansion it achieved two years ago due to the low volume of projects under construction outside of China.Solar PV additions will continue to increase in 2024 while challenges remain for wind expansion.Declining module prices,greater uptake of distributed solar PV systems and a policy push for large-scale deployment are driving higher annual solar additions in all major markets including China,the European Union,the United States and India.In contrast,without rapid policy implementation,global onshore wind additions in 2024 are expected to fall by around 5%from 2023 levels.While Chinas wind energy additions will continue to increase in 2024,they are set to be more than offset by undersubscription of auctions and pending permitting delays in Europe.The situation in Europe is expected to improve once Renewable Energy Market Update June 2023 PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.new legislation is implemented.Overall,cumulative world renewable capacity is forecast to reach over 4 500 GW at the end of 2024,equal to the total power capacity of China and the United States combined.Global renewable capacity additions could reach 550 GW in 2024 in our accelerated case,almost 20%higher than in the main forecast.This is mainly due to a more rapid deployment of residential and commercial PV installations,assuming a faster implementation of recent policies and incentives.The upside for utility-scale onshore wind and solar PV projects mostly depends on the pace of permitting,construction and timely grid connection of projects under development.Renewables are at the forefront of Europes response to the energy crisis The crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine has accelerated renewable energy deployment in the European Union,driving the bloc to urgently reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas imports.Policy actions in many European countries has led us to revise our forecast for renewable capacity additions in the EU in 2023 and 2024 upwards by 40%compared with before the war.Rapid growth in distributed solar PV is the main reason for the more positive outlook,accounting for almost three-quarters of the EU forecast revisions.This is driven by high electricity prices that make solar PV more financially attractive and by increasing policy support in key EU markets,especially in Germany,Italy and the Netherlands.European countries introduced more policy and regulatory changes to ease permitting in the last 18 months than over the entire previous decade.While permitting has become a key policy focus in Europe to accelerate the deployment of large-scale wind and solar PV and early benefits are starting to be visible,the proposed policy changes are expected to have limited impact on the deployment of renewables in 2023 and 2024 compared with other drivers,such as installations of small-scale residential and commercial solar PV.EU electricity consumers are set to save an estimated EUR 100 billion during the 2021-2023 period thanks to newly installed solar PV and wind capacity.Accelerating renewable energy deployment in Europe since 2021 has mitigated the economic impact of the energy