中国对半导体行业的影响 - 2015年报告_mar2016.pdf

Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update Technology Institute Full Report March 2016 Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Table of contents Overview Part I Chinas semiconductor market Part II Chinas semiconductor industry Part III Chinas design industry Part IV Chinas semiconductor manufacturing Part V Top Chinese semiconductor companies and manufacturers About this report Interpreting Chinese semiconductor statistics Overview Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Overview During the eleven years that PwC has reported on Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry,China has moved rapidly from being the smallest of the regional semiconductor consumption markets in 2003,to the largest by 2005,and then expanded its consumption leadership position and increased its market share every subsequent year but one.During four of those years Chinas consumption grew by commanding the majority of worldwide market growth,while during the other six years,including the past four,Chinas consumption has grown at the expense of decreases in other regions.While the worldwide semiconductor market has grown by US$169 billion from 2003 through 2014,Chinas semiconductor consumption has grown by US$173 billion,and 2014 was the third year that China consumed more than half of the worldwide semiconductor market.From 2004 through 2014 Chinas semiconductor consumption grew at a ten-year compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 16.7%while the worldwide semiconductor market grew at a 4.7%CAGR.During that same period Chinas much smaller semiconductor industry revenue grew at a 20.5%CAGR.A conservative comparison indicates that Chinas semiconductor industry accounted for 13.4%of the world-wide semiconductor industry in 2014,up from 12.0%in 2013 and 11.6%in 2012.Updates to many of our annual graphics as well as a brief explanation of the significant changes for the year can be found at you have any questions or would like to discuss any of the findings in this report and how they may impact your business,please reach out to Raman Chitkara(),our global technology industry leader,Jianbin Gao(),the technology industry leader in China or Clements E.Pausa(),the report author.Part I Chinas semiconductor market Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC For the fourth consecutive year Chinas semiconductor consumption growth continued to far exceed worldwide semiconductor market growth in 2014.While the worldwide semiconductor market increased 9.8%in 2014,Chinas semiconductor consumption market grew by 12.6%in 2014 to reach a new record of 56.6%of the global market.During the past eleven years,Chinas semiconductor consumption has grown at an 18.8%compounded annual growth rate(CAGR),while total worldwide consumption has only grown at a 6.6%CAGR.The worldwide semiconductor market as reported by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics(WSTS)has grown by US$169bn from 2003 to 2014 while Chinas semiconductor consumption as reported by the China Semiconductor Industry Association(CSIA)has grown by US$173bn.Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Chinas semiconductor consumption market continues to grow many times faster than the worldwide market as a result of two driving factorsthe continuing transfer of worldwide electronic equipment production to China and the above-average semiconductor content of that equipment.Most industry analysts predict that the trend of an increasing share of electronic equipment production in China will moderate but continue over the next several years.According to Gartner,Chinas share of electronic equipment production is forecast to increase to more than 38%by 2017;the semiconductor content of that production to gradually increase to over 35%while the worldwide average content increases to 25%;and Chinas share of worldwide semiconductor consumption to increase by a further 4%.Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC The integrated circuit(IC)consumption market in China grew 13.6%to US$169bn in 2014 while the worldwide IC market saw only a 10.1%increase.As a result,Chinas IC consumption represented almost 57%of worldwide consumption in 2014.During 2014 Chinas IC consumption increased by more than US$20bn while the worldwide market increased by US$26bn.However during the past ten years Chinas IC consumption has grown by more than US$134bn while the worldwide market increased by only US$99bn.Chinas IC consumption has grown at the expense of IC markets in other regions although Chinas rate of IC consumption market growth is gradually moving closer to the worldwide rate.In 2014 Chinas O-S-D(optoelectronics-sensor-discrete)consumption market grew 8.1%to reach a new peak of US$34.3bn.For the first time in four years this increase was slightly less than the worldwide O-S-D market increase.As a result,Chinas share of that market remained relatively flat at 56%in 2014 Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC During 2014 Chinas semiconductor consumption continued to be more concentrated in the data processing(computing)and communications applications sectors and became slightly more concentrated in the consumer sector than the worldwide market while remaining less concentrated in the automotive and noticeably less concentrated in the industrial/medical/other and military/aerospace sectors.Chinas share of 2014 worldwide semiconductor consumption was largest for the communications(computing)sector where it increased along with Chinas share of the 2014 worldwide data processing and consumer sectors.Chinas share of the worldwide automotive,industrial/medical/other and mil/aero sectors decreased during 2014.Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC The major global semiconductor companies continue to dominate the Chinese market.The three graphs above shows the top 10 suppliers with the largest value of semiconductors consumed in China during 2014.There have only been 14 different companies among these top ten suppliers over the past eleven years.Seven companies have been among the top ten suppliers to China every year from 2003 through 2014:Intel,Samsung,TI,Toshiba,SK Hynix,ST and Freescale.AMD joined the list in 2004 and has been among the top ten suppliers to China for the last ten years.Qualcomm,which joined the list in 2012 at number 10,moved up to number 6 in 2013 and to number 4 in 2014.During 2014 Chinas consumption of semiconductor products from these ten largest suppliers increased by 11%,somewhat less than the growth of the overall semiconductor market in China.The Chinese semiconductor consumption market continued a trend of becoming less concentrated than the worldwide market as the top 10 suppliers share of Chinas consumption declined to 42.4%in 2014,down from 43%in 2012 and 45%in 2011.Part II Chinas semiconductor industry Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Chinas reported 2014 semiconductor industry revenue growth continued to exceed both its semiconductor consumption and the worldwide semiconductor market growth.Chinas semiconductor industry grew by 17.5%in 2014 to a record US$77.3bn.Chinas semiconductor industry has grown at an equal or greater rate than its semiconductor market consumption for eight of the past ten years.From 2004 through 2014 Chinas semiconductor industry grew at a ten-year compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 20.5%while its semiconductor consumption grew at a 16.7%and the worldwide semiconductor market at a 4.7%CAGR.Chinas share of the worldwide semiconductor industry is continuing to grow and become significant.Compared to the sum of worldwide semiconductor device sales revenue plus the value of all wafer fabrication and packaging,assembly and test production,Chinas 2014 semiconductor industry revenues accounted for 13.4%of the worldwide semiconductor industry,up from 12%in 2013 and 11.6%in 2012.Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC The overall performance of Chinas IC(integrated circuit)industry(the sum of IC design,IC wafer manufacturing and IC packaging and testing)continued to be the major contributor to Chinas overall semiconductor industry growth in 2014.It grew by 20.4%in 2014 while Chinas O-S-D(optoelectonics-sensors-discretes)industry revenue only grew by 12.9%.Since 2010 Chinas IC industry revenues have more than doubled,growing 130%,while Chinas O-S-D industry revenues only increased by two-thirds,growing 68%.Chinas 2014 IC industry revenues of US$49.1bn were nearly twice their O-S-D revenues of US$28.2bn.Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC The distribution of Chinas semiconductor industry revenue continued its gradual shift towards the IC sectors in 2014.From 2004 through 2014 the once small IC design sector has grown at a 33%CAGR while the larger IC packaging and test sector achieved a 19.6%CAGR.The much larger O-S-D and smaller IC manufacturing sectors have only grown at an 18%CAGR.As a result,Chinas three IC industry sectors have grown from 51.5%to 63.6%of Chinas total semiconductor industry.During 2014 IC design grew 29.7%,IC manufacturing 18.7%,IC packaging and test 14.4%and O-S-D 12.8%,slightly changing their relative share but not the order of their distribution which became:1.O-S-D devices 36.5%2.IC packaging and testing 26.5%3.IC design 22.0%4.IC manufacturing 15.0%Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Chinas IC consumption/production gap increased again in 2014 to a new record annual high despite all the various government plans and efforts to reduce it.This gap is the yearly difference between IC consumption and IC industry revenues.Based upon the most recent CSIA industry statistics,this annual gap grew by a further US$11.9bn(11.0%)in 2014 to reach US$20.1bn.During the eleven year span of our reports on Chinas semiconductor industry,this gap has grown from US$20.8bn in 2003 to US$120.1bn in 2013,widening every year except 2009.The ratio of Chinas IC production revenue to IC consumption has shown some improvement.It had grown with yearly variability from 17%in 2001 to a peak of 29%in 2014.According to CSIA,this ratio is now expected to increase to 36%by 2017,which is up from the 32%they had forecast for 2016 a year ago.However,this will still result in a further increase in Chinas IC consumption/production gap which is now forecast to reach US$151.5bn in 2017 despite all the Chinese governments plans and efforts to reduce it.It is our belief that this gap continues to contribute to the Chinese governments ongoing initiatives to increase indigenous IC production.Part III Chinas design industry Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Integrated circuit(IC)design continues to be the fastest growing segment of Chinas semiconductor industry.It grew by 30%in 2014 to reach record revenues of US$17.1bn.During the eleven years from 2003 through 2014 Chinas IC design(fabless)industry has grown at a 36.8%compound annual growth rate(CAGR)from US$541mn to over US$17.1bn.According to the China Center of Information Industry Development(CCID)and the China Semiconductor Industry Association(CSIA),IC design sector revenue contributed more than 34%to Chinas semiconductor industry revenue growth in 2014 and has grown from 20%in 2013 to represent 22%of Chinas total semiconductor industry.During the last eleven years Chinas IC design industry has grown from representing just 0.4%of the worldwide IC market and 2.5%of the worldwide fabless IC industry in 2003 to representing almost 6%of the worldwide IC market and 19.4%of the worldwide fabless IC industry in 2014.Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC According to the China Center of Information Industry Development(CCID),the number of Chinas IC design enterprises increased from 583 in 2013 to 664 by the end of 2014.That increase of 81 additional IC design enterprises during 2014 is by far the largest net increase in the last ten years.However,it has been exceeded at least two times in Chinas earlier semiconductor history by the reported increase of 111,and 189 IC design enterprises in 2001 and 2002.The number of reported IC design enterprises increased from less than 500 in 2010 to more than 660 in 2014.The Chinese government policy of offering tax incentives to promote the development of its semiconductor industry since the implementation of its 12th Five-Year plan in 2011 seems to have played a key role in the growth of IC design enterprises in China.There continues to be considerable debate about the size and make-up of these 664 enterprises as well as a great diversity among this group.Of the 664 IC design enterprises reported at the end of 2014 as many as 250 could be the design or research and development(R&D)units or activities of foreign invested or subsidiary multinational companies(MNC).It is still estimated that there are no more than 100,possibly less,local indigenous IC design enterprises that are truly viable fabless semiconductor companies.Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC From 2013 to 2014,employment in Chinas IC design sector increased along with the significant addition of IC design enterprises.According to the China Center of Information Industry Development(CCID),the total number of employees in the IC design sector increased by almost 15%in 2014 to about 147,000 with the distribution shifting slightly to the mid-size companies with 100 to 500 employees.This year-over-year growth represents relative stability in employee density,resulting from the 13.9%increase in the number of enterprises accompanied by an 11%increase in the number of employees,along with a significant,30%increase in revenue,a slight 0.9%increase in the average number of employees per enterprise,and a positive 13%increase in average sales per employee to US$116,000.Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Chinas IC design industry continued to make a further modest migration to finer design line widths in 2014.The number of design enterprises with design capabilities equal to or less than 0.25 microns increased by 16%in 2014 to 306 which represents slightly more than 46%of Chinas total IC design enterprises,up slightly from 45%in 2013.More significant,the total revenues of these enterprises with finer design line widths increased by almost 34%in 2014 to account for more than 53%of total IC design revenues.Part IV Chinas semiconductor manufacturing Chinas impact on the semiconductor industry:2015 update PwC Chinas total wafer fab capacity has remained relatively constant over the past four years from 2011 through 2014 while its share of worldwide wafer fab capacity has increased by more than a percentage point from 10.8%in 2011 to 12%in 2014.During 2014 Chinas number of wafer fabs in production increased from160 to 165 with the addition of three discrete and one each IDM and R&D/MEMS fabs for a