WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf

Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software&SocietyDeep ShiftTechnology Tipping Points and Societal ImpactSurvey Report,September 2015 WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM,2015 All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced ortransmitted in any form or by any means,includingphotocopying and recording,or by any informationstorage and retrieval system.REF 3108153Deep Shift-Technology Tipping Points and Societal ImpactContentsPreface3 Preface4 Introduction4 Survey Methodology5 The Six Megatrends6 Survey Results8 The Tipping Points(Shifts)8 1:Implantable Technologies9 2:Our Digital Presence10 3:Vision as the New Interface11 4:Wearable Internet12 5:Ubiquitous Computing13 6:A Supercomputer in Your Pocket15 7:Storage for All16 8:The Internet of and for Things17 9:The Connected Home18 10:Smart Cities19 11:Big Data for Decisions20 12:Driverless Cars21 13:Artificial Intelligence and Decision-Making22 14:AI and White-Collar Jobs 23 15:Robotics and Services24 16:Bitcoin and the Blockchain25 17:The Sharing Economy26 18:Governments and the Blockchain27 19:3D Printing and Manufacturing29 20:3D Printing and Human Health30 21:3D Printing and Consumer Products32 Cross-Cutting Impacts32 Jobs and the Nature of Work33 Security33 Transparency,Trust and Privacy34 The Economy35 Government36 Organizations,Communities and the Individual37 Shifting Ownership38 Conclusion39 Appendix40 Endnotes42 Acknowledgements Software has the potential to drastically change our lives.Earlier this year,the World Economic Forums Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software and Society set out to help people prepare for changes enabled by software.We found 21 examples of these that will have far-reaching impacts on human health,the environment,global commerce and international relations.We are entering a time of momentous societal shifts brought on by advancements in software.According to Erik Brynjolfsson,Council Vice-Chair;Director,MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,USA,and a prolific author:“Now comes the second machine age.Computers and other digital advances are doing for mental power the ability to use our brains to understand and shape our environments what the steam engine and its descendants did for muscle power.”These changes will impact people around the world.Inventions previously seen only in science fiction,such as artificial intelligence,connected devices and 3D printing,will enable us to connect and invent in ways we never have before.Businesses will automate complicated tasks,reduce production costs and reach new markets.Continued growth in internet access will further accelerate change.In Sub-Saharan Africa and other underdeveloped regions,connectivity has the potential to redefine global trade,lift people out of poverty and topple political regimes.And for many of us,seemingly simple software innovations will transform our daily routines.These changes are not without their challenges;as technology improves the lives of many,we hope to help prepare people to understand and address concerns on privacy,security and job disruption.I would like to thank my colleagues who serve on the Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software&Society for their efforts to help people around the world better understand and prepare for these shifts.This report is a small first step in understanding the changes that lie ahead.We hope it will provide important insights to consider as we navigate the complex issues related to changing technologies.Victoria EspinelChair,Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software&SocietyWorld Economic ForumPresident and Chief Executive OfficerBSA|The Software Alliance,USA4Deep Shift-Technology Tipping Points and Societal ImpactIntroductionSurvey MethodologyDigital connectivity permeates all aspects of daily life from the way people interact to the economic landscape,political decision-making and the skills needed to get a job.A greater reliance on networked resources makes people more interdependent,while many stakeholders are concerned about whether the industry can strike the right balance between privacy,security and trust.At the same time,increasing digitization is driving industries from product-based to service-based offerings.While these offerings are highly automated and standardized,they are also personalized through software.The seamless integration of the physical and digital worlds through networked sensors,actuators,embedded hardware and software will change industrial models.In short,the world is about to experience an exponential rate of change through the rise of software and services.The mandate of the World Economic Forums Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software&Society is to help society navigate the impacts of the shifts to come.Building on this mandate,the council aims to help the broader society navigate the transition to the future digital and hyperconnected world by explaining the societal impacts generated by major technology trends and the new business models in plain language,and through engaging,accessible media.This report is the first of its kind one aimed at trying to capture some of the deep shifts occurring in society as a result of software and services,and to encourage everyone to think about the impact of these changes on our society and how to prepare for the changes ahead.In March 2015,the Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software&Society launched the Technological Tipping Points survey.Based on the councils discussions over previous months,the survey asked respondents for their views on 21“tipping points”moments when specific technological shifts hit mainstream society.Aiming to provide a snapshot of expectations from a community of over 800 executives and experts from the information and communications technology sector,the survey asked respondents for their perception of when these tipping points would occur,offering date ranges from“it has already happened”to“20+years”.The option of“never”was also available.A total of 816 responses were received.The results were aggregated,analysed and collated into two main formats.Firstly,a weighted mean system was used to calculate the average year by which each tipping point was expected to have occurred.The resulting timeline(Figure 1)ranges from 2018 to 2027.To calculate this effectively,the responses of those who answered“never”were discounted;thus,the timeline reflects the perceptions only of those who thought the shift would occur at some point in time.1Secondly,to get a more global view of the momentous change within the next decade,the percentage of people who answered“10 years”or less for each tipping point was aggregated.The resulting overview of the expectations in 2025 are shown in the Table.5Deep Shift-Technology Tipping Points and Societal ImpactThe Six MegatrendsAs a foundation to its work,the council sought to identify the software and services megatrends which are shaping society,and their associated opportunities and risks.People and the internetHow people connect with others,information and the world around them is being transformed through a combination of technologies.Wearable and implantable technologies will enhance peoples“digital presence”,allowing them to interact with objects and one another in new ways.Computing,communications and storage everywhereThe continued rapid decline in the size and cost of computing and connectivity technologies is driving an exponential growth in the potential to access and leverage the internet.This will lead to ubiquitous computing power being available,where everyone has access to a supercomputer in their pocket,with nearly unlimited storage capacity.The Internet of ThingsSmaller,cheaper and smarter sensors are being introduced in homes,clothes and accessories,cities,transport and energy networks,as well as manufacturing processes.Artificial intelligence(AI)and big dataExponential digitization creates exponentially more data about everything and everyone.In parallel,the sophistication of the problems software can address,and the ability for software to learn and evolve itself,is advancing rapidly.This is built on the rise of big data for decision-making,and the influence that AI and robotics are starting to have on decision-making and jobs.The sharing economy and distributed trustThe internet is driving a shift towards networks and platform-based social and economic models.Assets can be shared,creating not just new efficiencies but also whole new business models and opportunities for social self-organization.The blockchain,an emerging technology,replaces the need for third-party institutions to provide trust for financial,contract and voting activities.The digitization of matterPhysical objects are“printed”from raw materials via additive,or 3D,printing,a process that transforms industrial manufacturing,allows for printing products at home and creates a whole set of human health opportunities.6Deep Shift-Technology Tipping Points and Societal ImpactSurvey ResultsRespondents who thought the tipping points(shifts)would occur at some point in time provided the years when they expected that these would occur(Figure 1),with the earliest shift in 2018 and the latest in 2027.The results show that a significant number of shifts were expected to occur in the early years of the next decade.Figure 1:Average Year Each Tipping Point Is Expected to Occur 1The survey results were also analysed to see what percentage of the respondents expected the tipping point to have occurred by 2025,or ten years from now.Eleven of the 21 transition points had a high expectation(over 80%)of occurring by this date.20182021202220232024202520262027 Storage for All Robot and Services The Internet of and for Things Wearable Internet 3D Printing and Implantable Technologies Big Data for Decisions Vision as the New Interface Our Digital Presence Governments and the Blockchain A Ubiquitous Computing 3D Printing and Human Health The Connected Home 3D Printing and Consumer Products AI and White-Collar Jobs The Sharing Economy Driverless Cars AI and Decision-Making Smart Cities Bitcoin and the BlockchainManufacturing Supercomputer in Your Pocket 7Deep Shift-Technology Tipping Points and Societal ImpactTable:Tipping Points Expected to Occur by 2025%10%of people wearing clothes connected to the internet91.290%of people having unlimited and free(advertising-supported)storage91.01 trillion sensors connected to the internet 89.2The first robotic pharmacist in the US86.510%of reading glasses connected to the internet85.580%of people with a digital presence on the internet84.4The first 3D-printed car in production84.1The first government to replace its census with big-data sources82.9The first implantable mobile phone available commercially81.75%of consumer products printed in 3D81.190%of the population using smartphones80.790%of the population with regular access to the internet78.8Driverless cars equalling 10%of all cars on US roads78.2The first transplant of a 3D-printed liver76.430%of corporate audits performed by AI75.4Tax collected for the first time by a government via a blockchain73.1Over 50%of internet traffic to homes for appliances and devices69.9Globally more trips/journeys via car sharing than in private cars67.2The first city with more than 50,000 people and no traffic lights63.710%of global gross domestic product stored on blockchain technology57.9The first AI machine on a corporate board of directors45.2Source:Survey8Deep Shift-Technology Tipping Points and Societal ImpactThe Tipping Points(Shifts)Shift 1:Implantable TechnologiesThe tipping point:The first implantable mobile phone available commerciallyExpected date:2023By 2025:82%of respondents expected this tipping point will have occurredPeople are becoming more and more connected to devices,and those devices are increasingly becoming connected to their bodies.Devices are not just being worn,but also being implanted into bodies,serving communications,location and behaviour monitoring,and health functions.Pacemakers and cochlear implants were just the beginning of this,with many more health devices constantly being launched.These devices will be able to sense the parameters of diseases;they will enable individuals to take action,send data to monitoring centres,or potentially release healing medicines automatically.Smart tattoos and other unique chips could help with identification and location.Implanted devices will likely also help to communicate thoughts normally expressed verbally through a“built-in”smartphone,and potentially unexpressed thoughts or moods by reading brainwaves and other signals.Positive impacts Reduction in missing children Increased positive health outcomes Increased self-sufficiency Better decision-making Image recognition and availability of personal data(anonymous network that will“yelp”2 people)Negative impacts Privacy/potential surveillance Decreased data security Escapism and addiction Increased distractions(i.e.attention deficit disorder)Unknown,or cuts both ways Longer lives Changing nature of human relationships Changes in human interactions and relationships Real-time identification Cultural shift(eternal memory)A team at Brown University called BrainGate is at the forefront of the real-world movement to link human brains directly to computers for a host of uses.As the BrainGate website says,using a baby aspirin-sized array of electrodes implanted into the brain,early research from the BrainGate team has shown that the neural signals can be“decoded”by a computer in real-time and used to operate external devices.Chip maker Intel predicts practical computer-brain interfaces by 2020.Intel scientist Dean Pomerleau said in a recent article,Eventually people may be willing to be more committed to brain implants.Imagine being able to surf the Web with the power of your thoughts.In“Nine real technologies that will soon be inside you”,Mike Edelhart,Yahoo News!,19 October 2014,https:/ shift in actionAccording to an article published on Yahoo!News:9Deep Shift-Technology Tipping Points and Societal ImpactDigital strategy and the integration of digital technologies into companies strategies and operations in ways that fundamentally alter the value chain is emerging as a significant source of competitive advantage and driving dramatic changes in the products and services companies bring to market,as well as how they do businessIn“Your Digital Presence is a Valuable Asset”,Alan Radding,wiredFINANCE,30 August 2013,http:/ 2:Our Digital PresenceThe tipping point:80%of people with a digital presence on the internetExpected date:2023By 2025:84%of respondents expected this tipping point will have occurredHaving a presence in the digital world has evolved rapidly in the past 20 or more years.Just 10 years ago,it meant having a mobile phone number,email address and perhaps a personal website or a MySpace page.Now,peoples digital presence is regarded as their digital interactions,and traces throug