【First Insight】女装研究.pdf

1 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.In Womenswear,Price Resistance Is Increasing 1)FungGlobalRetail&TechnologyandFirstInsightconductedananalysis that found there is a persistent and significant gapbetween the planned manufacturerssuggested retailprices(MSRPs)ofwomenswearproductstestedbyFirstInsightandthepricesconsumersarewillingtopayforthem.Onaverage,across all womenswear categories tested between January2013andJune2016,consumerswerewillingtopayonly76%offullprice.Consumersnotseeingthevalueatfullpriceisakeydriverofthemarkdownchallengethathasbeenplaguingretailersandbrands.2)Over the three and a half years ended June 2016,testedMSRPs of womenstops andbottoms fell by 14%and13%,respectively.Thepricesthatconsumerswerewillingtopayinthesecorewomenscategoriesalsodeclinedovertheperiod,toonly74%79%ofplannedMSRPs.3)Duetothegrowthofathleisurewearandthecasualizationofwomenswear,consumersareshowinglesspriceresistanceinsomesubcategories.Forexample,consumerswerewillingtopay82%ofplannedMSRPsforknitbottomstestedbyFirstInsight,even though planned MSRPs increased significantlyovertheperiod.4)Footwearconsumershavebeenincreasinglyunwillingtopaythehigherpricessetbyretailersandbrands.AsofJune2016,consumerswere willing topay only 74%of retailers askingpricesforfootwear.5)Weexpecttoseecontinuedcategorygrowthinathleisureandfootwear,and an overall emphasis onincorporatingperformancetechnologiesintoworkwearandstreetwear.2 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.FungGlobalRetail&TechnologyandFirstInsightpartneredtoanalyzeadata set from tests performed on womens apparel and accessoriesproducts.First Insight performed the consumer tests between January2013andJune2016in11countries:theUS,France,Italy,Germany,GreatBritain,Spain,Poland,Mexico,theNetherlands,CanadaandChina.FirstInsightwasfoundedin2007andisacloud-basedtechnologycompanythattestsproductsonthemarketacrossmanycategories.Thecompanyusespredictiveanalyticstodeterminewhichproducts,pricepointsanddesignattributeswillperforminthemarketandresonatewithconsumers.FirstInsightandFungGlobalRetail&Technologyanalyzedasetofdataonmorethan57,000womensapparelandaccessoriesitemsin10categoriesthathadbeentestedwithconsumers.OuranalysisrevealedthatMSRPsaretrendingdownward incorewomenswearcategories,butupwardinnoncorecategories.We found that there is a persistent and significant gap between theplannedMSRPstestedandthepricesconsumersarewillingtopay,thatconsumersaremorewillingtoacceptpricegrowthinathleisurewearandactivewearthaninothercategories,andthatconsumersareunwillingtopaytopdollarforfootwear.BetweenJanuary2013andJune2016,FirstInsighttestedconsumersreactionsin11countriestomorethan57,000apparelandaccessoriesitemsin10womenswearcategories.Source:Shutterstock3 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%LoungewearandSleepwearSwimwearBoeomsLingerieTopsDressesOuterwear Accessories FootwearWorkoutApparel201320161.GapBetweenPlannedMSRPsandPricesConsumersWereWillingtoPayWidenedinSevenof10CategoriesTestedFromJanuary2013throughJune2016,thepricesconsumerswerewillingtopaywerelowerthantheplannedretailticketprice(MSRP)acrossthe10womenswearcategoriesinFirstInsightstestingportfolio.FirstInsightspredictiveanalyticsyieldsaforecastedaverageunitretail(AUR)priceforlifecycleofeachitemtested,which,whencomparedwiththeplannedMSRP,providesapredictorofproductsuccessinthemarket.Thispredictorishighlycorrelatedtoactualsellingprices.AlowpredictedAUR price relative to planned MSRP indicates decreased consumeracceptanceoftheplannedsellingprice.Insimpleterms,FirstInsightdatarevealsthatretailersproposedsellingpricesdecreasedinsevenoutof10womenswearcategoriestestedoverthepastthreeandahalfyears.Whentested,thepricesthatconsumerswerewillingtopaywere65%to93%ofretailersaskingprices,onaverage,acrossallcategoriestested.Thegap between MSRPs and the prices consumers were willing to paynarrowedinloungeandsleepwear,swimwearandbottoms,butwidenedintheothersevencategories.Thisoveralltrendalignswiththeincreasinglypromotionalnatureofretail,theimpactofmulti-channelselling,andoff-priceretailandfast-fashionretail.Figure1.PercentageofRetailersAskingPriceConsumersWereWillingtoPayin10MajorCategories,2013vs.1H16Source:FirstInsightThegapbetweenplannedMSRPandpredictedAURwidenedinsevenoutof10categoriestested.Overall,consumerswerewillingtopayonly76%ofplannedMSRPsin2016testing.4 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.2.PlannedMSRPsandPricesConsumersWereWillingtoPayTrendedDownwardinCoreCategoriesofTopsandBottomsBetweenJanuary2013andJune2016,testedMSRPsofwomenstopsandbottomsinFirstInsightstestsetfellby14%and13%,respectively.Inthecoretopsandbottomscategories,thetestpricesdeclinedalongwiththepricesthatconsumerswerewillingtopay.OuranalysisidentifiedapersistentgapbetweentheaveragetestpriceandpredictedAURpriceincoretopsandbottomscategories,withconsumerswilling to pay only 74%79%of the planned MSRP over the period,asshowninthegraphbelow.ThismeansthataFirstInsightconsumerwouldbewillingtopayonly$22$24foratoppricedat$30,forexample.Thisgapisevidencedbythecontinuedmarkdownchallengesthatretailersandbrandsface.ThepredictiveanalysisfromthisFirstInsightdatasetsuggeststhatiftheretailerwenttomarketwiththetoppricedat$30,thattopmayhaveahigherlikelihoodofbeingmarkeddownduetoincreasedconsumerpriceresistance.Figure2.PercentageofRetailersAskingPricesConsumersWereWillingtoPayinTopsandBottoms,Jan2013Jun2016Source:FirstInsightInaJuly2016EuromonitorInternationalsurvey,74%ofAmericanspolledsaidthattheylovedtofindbargains,whichisnotsurprising.Consumersare increasingly seeking value in every aspect of their lives.As shownbelow,overthepastfiveyears,sevenofthe20fastest-growingbrandsacrossallretailchannelsarevalue-orientedbrands.74%75%76%77%78%79%2013201420152016BoeomsTopsBothplannedMSRPsandpredictedAURpricesaretrendingdownwardforcoretopsandbottomscategories,withconsumerswillingtopayonly74%79%oftheplannedaskingprices.5 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.Figure3.Sevenofthe20Fastest-GrowingBrandsAccordingtoSalesGrowth,20102015Brand%ChangeWalmartNeighborhoodMarket236%NordstromRack111%HomeGoods82%AshleyFurniture70%rue2170%DollarGeneral58%Forever2156%Source:EuromonitorInternational3.AcceptanceofPricingGrowthinBottomsDrivenbyAthleisureAlthough pricing is trending down in the bottoms category,withconsumers willing to pay only 76%of the asking price on average,athleisurewearisastandoutsubcategorythathasshownstronggrowthinbothplannedMSRPandconsumerswillingnesstopay.Knitbottomsandleggings were the two strongest categories of price accceptance withinbottoms.Customerswerewillingtopay74%oftheMSRPforleggingsasofJune2016,anincreaseof12%fromJanuary2013.Andtheywerewillingtopay82%ofMSRPforknitbottoms,a9%increaseovertheperiod.Theknitbottoms subcategory(largely made up of athleisure/athleticwear)sawsignificantpriceincreasesovertheperiodincludedinthedataset,andconsumerswerewillingtopaytheincreasedprices.As shown below,four out of seven key subcategoriesleggings,knitbottoms,pants and shortssaw increased MSRP acceptance over theperiod.Consumers willingness to pay full price for items in the threeremainingsubcategoriescroppedpants,jeansandskirtstrendedflattoslightlydown.Figure4.PercentageofRetailersAskingPricesConsumersWereWillingtoPayinBottomsSubcategories,2013vs.1H16Source:FirstInsightConsumerswerewillingtopayhigherpricesforathleisureoverthetestperiod;theywerewillingtopay82%ofaskingpriceforknitbottomsand74%ofaskingpriceforleggings.Knitbottoms,largelycomposedofathleisure/athleticwear,experiencedincreasesinbothMSRPsandconsumerswillingnesstopaythoseprices.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%LeggingsKnitBoeomsPantsShortsCroppedPantsJeansSkirts201320166 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.ASliceIntelligencereportfoundthatonlinepurchasesofleggingswereup41%in2016comparedwitha3%increaseinordersofjeans.AccordingtoEuromonitor,theriseofathleisurehashelpedtosupportthegrowthofwomenswearsales,andwomensleggingsrecordedthestrongestcurrentsalesgrowth,of9%,in2015.LululemonAthleticagrewsalesby369%andAthletagrewsalesby95%overthe20102015period.SportswearbrandsNike,AdidasandUnderArmourallsawdouble-digitsalesgrowthin2015.Evennon-sportsapparelbrandsareshowinganinterestinthewomenssportswear category,with fast-fashion brands H&M and Forever 21launchingsportsclothingandfootwear.TopshopannouncedapartnershipwithBeyonctolaunchasportswearline,andluxurybrandsincludingToryBurch,Cynthia Rowley and Rebecca Minkoff launched sportswearcollectionsin2015.Euromonitorforecaststhattheglobalsportswearandcomfortable-dressing trends will continue to influence consumerspurchasingdecisions.Thefirmexpectssportsapparelandfootwearsalestogrowby$63billionby2020.Figure5.ForecastApparelandFootwearCategoryGrowth(YoY%Change),2016202020162017201820192020PerformanceFootwear8%8%7%7%7%Sport-inspiredFootwear7%7%6%6%6%WomansFootwear4%5%5%5%5%PerformanceApparel5%5%5%5%5%MensFootwear5%5%4%4%4%ChildrensFootwear5%5%5%5%5%Childrenswear5%5%5%5%5%Sport-inspiredApparel5%5%5%5%5%OutdoorFootwear5%5%5%5%5%Womenswear3%3%3%3%3%OutdoorApparel4%5%4%4%4%Menswear3%3%3%3%3%ApparelAccessories3%3%3%3%3%Hosiery2%2%2%2%1%Year-on-YearGrowthSource:EuromonitorInternationalSalesgrowthinperformancefootwear,performanceapparelandsports-inspiredapparelisexpectedtooutpacegrowthinwomenswearoverallthrough2020.Theriseofathleisurehashelpedsupportthegrowthofwomenswearsales.In2015,womensleggingsrecordedthestrongestcurrentvaluegrowth,of9%.1%8%7 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.FirstInsightandFungGlobalRetail&Technologypredictthatwomensactivewearwillcontinuetodriveapparelsales,particularlyascompaniesare investing in fabrics and technologies that are multifunctional.Thedistinction between workwear and leisurewear is blurring,and there isopportunitytocontinuetogrowcategorysalesbyintegratingworkwearandstreetwear.4.FootwearPricesWereUp,butConsumersWereUnwillingtoPayTopDollarThe average price of footwear in First Insights test portfolio increasedsignificantlybetweenJanuary2013andJune2016,but,asshownbelow,consumerswillingnesstopaytheproposedpricesdeclinedsteeply.Figure6.PercentageofRetailersAskingPricesConsumersWereWillingtoPayinFootwear,20132016Source:FirstInsightIn 2013,consumers were willing to pay 82%of planned MSRPs forfootwear.Thisdeclinedto74%byJune2016,suggestingthatconsumersare not willing to pay the higher prices that footwear retailers areproposing.TheproportionoffootwearitemsinthisFirstInsightdatasetincreasedsignificantlyfromJanuary2013throughJune2016.Thecostofcreatingshoe prototypes and samples is extremely high,so obtaining consumerfeedbackonthefrontendisincreasinglyapriorityforfootweardesignersandmanufacturers.Digitalpropotypinganddigitaldesigntechnologyarepositivelyimpactingthefootwearindustrybyreducingthecostsrequiredtoproducesamples,includingtheassociatedlaborandmaterialscosts.Companies such as Nike,Adidas and Under Armour are implementingdigital protoytping and,so,dramatically shortening the shoe designprocess.Footwear wholesalers are also increasingly seeking consumer-drivendatatoinformtheirlinerecommendationstokeyretailers.TheincreaseinfootweartestingseenbyFirstInsightisconsistentwithEuromonitors data.As shown below,US footwear sales growth isoutpacing apparel sales growth and is expected to continue to do sothrough2020.In2015,footwearsalestotaled$76.1billionandaccounted74%75%76%77%78%79%80%81%82%83%2013201420152016Wholesalecompaniesareincreasinglyseekingconsumerinputonthefrontendastheylooktoreducethecostsassociatedwithcreatingshoesamples.8 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.for25%oftotalapparelsales.In2020,Euromonitorexpectsfootwearsshareofapparelsalestoincreaseto30%,andreach$92.9billion.Figure7.ApparelandFootwearSales,YoY%Change(USDMil.)Source:EuromonitorInternationalFromJanuary2013throughJune2016,thefootwearpriceincreasesinFirstInsightsdatasetwereacceptedbyconsumersintheslippersandsneakerssubcategories,butconsumerswereresistanttothepriceincreasesinthefive other footwear subcategories:boots,heels,sandals,booties andwedges.Thebiggestgrowthinpriceresistancewasseeninwedgesandbooties,up22%and21%,respectively.Figure8.PercentageofRetailersAskingPriceConsumersWereWillingtoPayinFootwearSubcategories,Jan2013vs.Jun2016Source:FirstInsight0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EApparelGrowthFootwearGrowthTotalApparelandFootwearGrowth0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Slippers SneakersBootsHeelsSandalsBoolesWedges20132016Footwearsalesgrowthhasoutpacedapparelsalesgrowthinrecentyears,andEuromonitorInternationalexpectsfootweartocontinuetogrowat4%onaveragethrough2020.9 OCTOBER26,2016DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGYDEBORAHWEINSWIGFUNG1937.COMUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.Themarketforpremium-pricedfootweariscompetitive,andtheathleticand comfort footwear market is growing.According to Euromonitor,in2015,globalfootwearsalesgrewby6%,whileapparelsalesgrewby4%.Thefootwearmarketcontinuestobeinfluencedbyathleisure,ascomfortis taking precedence.We expect footwear growth to continue to beinfluencedbyperformancebrandsandconsumersdesireforcomfort.ConclusionAn analysis of First Insight product test data shows that consumerswillingnesstopayfullpriceisdecreasingoverallandinsevenoutof10womenswearcategories.Thepricesthatconsumerswerewillingtopayinwomens tops and bottoms declined from January 2013 through June2016,with consumers willing to pay only 74%79%of planned MSRPsacross the period.Due to the growth of athleisurewear and thecasualization of womenswear,prices and price acceptance in somesubcategorieswithinbottomshaveincreased.Thefootwearcategorygrewoverthepastthreeyears;wholesalersaregaining customer feedback early in the process.We expect to seecontinued category growth in athleisure and footwear,and an overallemphasisonincorporatingperformancetechnologiesintowo