中美贸易摩擦升级-20190514-国泰君安-11页.pdf

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 11Equity Research Report Equity Research Strategy Report 股票研究 策略报告股票研究 策略报告 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 市场策略 市场策略 Market Strategy Market Strategy Jake Wang 汪昌江 Jack Wu 吴狄 Andy Huang 黄凯鸿 市场策略(86755)2397 6675(86755)2397 6718(86755)2397 6702 .hk .hk 14 May 2019 Sino-US Trade Friction has Escalated 中美贸易摩擦升级The US raised tariffs to 25%following renewed trade friction between the US and China.On May 9,the USgovernment announced that the tariff rate for US$200 billion worth of goods imported from China would increase from10%to 25%effective from May 10,2019.Meanwhile,according to a statement on May 10 from the US trade representative office,the US plans to impose tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion of Chinese imports.China responded with a statement to take the necessary countermeasures if the new tariffs are implemented.At the same time,Vice Premier Liu announced that the two sides are maintaining good communication and cooperation and the negotiations would not break down after the 11th round of China-US trade negotiations.He also revealed thateconomic representatives and trade teams of the two sides have agreed to meet soon in Beijing to put forward communication and promote consultation.On May 13,China decided to raise tariff rates on nearly US$60 billion US exports to China that have been subject to tariff increases since June 1,2019,and impose tariffs of 25%,20%or 10%.美国拟提升关税至美国拟提升关税至 25%并拟扩大征税商品范围，中方亦提高关税应对。并拟扩大征税商品范围，中方亦提高关税应对。2019 年 5 月 9 日，美国政府宣布自 2019 年 5 月 10 日起，对从中国进口的2,000亿美元清单商品加征的关税税率由10%提高到25%，同时根据美国贸易代表处5月10日公告美方拟对剩余约3,000亿美元中国输美商品加征关税。中方作出回应表示如果美方关税措施付诸实施，中方将不得不采取必要反制措施。同时副总理刘鹤在第十一轮中美贸易磋商后表示双方进行了比较好的沟通与合作，谈判并没有破裂，这只是两国谈判中正常的小曲折，是不可避免的，中方对磋商未来审慎乐观；并透露双方经贸团队商定将很快在北京见面，继续进行沟通，推动磋商。5 月 13 日中方决定，自 2019 年6 月 1 日 0 时起对已实施加征关税的 600 亿美元清单美国商品中的部分，提高加征关税税率，分别实施 25%、20%或 10%加征关税。After analyzing the impact of this round of tariff increase on the sectors we covered,we hold the opinion that the tariffincrease will have negative impacts on the domestic Automobiles&Components,Consumer-Foods&Beverage,Ports,Shipping&Logistics and the Electric Equipment sector.At the same time,if the Chinese government putsforward countercyclical adjustment policies to deal with economic downward pressure,Cement&ConstructionMaterials,infrastructure,and Environmental Protection sectors may benefit;there will also be negative impacts on thesectors including Consumer-Apparel,Health Care,Manufacturing,and Telecommunication Equipment,but theimpact on the overall industry will not be extensive due to the relatively small quota.经过分析此轮提增关税对于我们覆盖行业的影响，我们认为此次增加关税将对国内汽车及零部件、消费经过分析此轮提增关税对于我们覆盖行业的影响，我们认为此次增加关税将对国内汽车及零部件、消费-食品饮料、港口、航运及物流，及电力设备行业有负面影响；同时如果中国政府进一步以逆周期政策调节对冲经济下行压力可能会利好水泥建材、基建、环保行业；对于消费食品饮料、港口、航运及物流，及电力设备行业有负面影响；同时如果中国政府进一步以逆周期政策调节对冲经济下行压力可能会利好水泥建材、基建、环保行业；对于消费-服装、医药、工业制造、通讯设备行业也会有负面影响，但因为额度相应较小对于整体行业影响并不明显。服装、医药、工业制造、通讯设备行业也会有负面影响，但因为额度相应较小对于整体行业影响并不明显。Summarized impact on covered sectors 覆盖行业所受影响总结覆盖行业所受影响总结 Industry Sector 行业行业 Comments 观点评论观点评论 Automobiles&Components 汽车及零部件 There will be negative impact on auto parts such as tires.However,our auto parts coverage including Nexteer(01316 HK)and Xiezhong International(3663 HK)will not be exposed to such risk.会对轮胎等汽车零部件产生负面影响。然而，我们的零部件覆盖公司包括耐世特（01316 HK）和协众国际（3663 HK）并没有此风险敞口。Market Strategy P See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 11 Table_PageHeader Market Strategy 14 May 2019 Market Strategy 市场策略 Cement and Construction Materials 水泥建材 Based on China Customs data in 2018,the US was the second largest importer of Chinese cement,only second to Hong Kong.The export volume of cement is expected to drop after the tariff raise.However,in 2018,the export volume of cement only accounted for less than 0.1%of total cement output in China,so the overall impact would be minor.On the other hand,if the Chinese government intends to offset the impact of tariff increases on economic growth by stimulating investment,the construction materials sector may benefit from increased demand from infrastructure construction.据 2018 年中国海关总署的数据，美国是中国水泥的第二大出口国家/地区，仅次于香港。预计美国加征关税后水泥出口量将有所下降。然而，2018 年全国水泥出口量占总产量的比例不足千分之一，因此整体影响不大。另一方面，倘若中国政府有意通过进一步刺激投资来对冲关税对于经济增长的冲击，则建材行业或将受惠于基建建设需求的增长。Consumer-Apparel 消费-服装 Among Chinas exports of textiles and textile products,the US contributed about 1/3.The amount of textiles and textile products affected by the tariff raise only accounts for 9.6%of US imports,which is equivalent to 3.1%of Chinas total exports.Shoes and footwear products are not in the list of tariff raise.Therefore,the overall impact will be relatively small.中国纺织原料及纺织制品出口额中，美国占 1/3 左右，而其中加税的部分仅占美国进口额的 9.6%，也就相当于占中国该品类总出口额的 3.1%。鞋靴类产品则并没有被加税。因此整体来说影响比较小。Consumer-Foods&Beverage 消费-食品饮料 Chinas increased tariffs on US imported goods will raise raw material costs for the food and beverage industry.中国提高美国货物的进口关税将抬高食品饮料行业的原材料成本，如大豆，冻肉等。Consumer-Retailing 消费-零售 No significant impact on domestic retail sales,but may negatively affect luxury consumption indirectly.对国内零售影响不大，但可能会间接影响奢侈品消费。Electric Equipment 电力设备 The total tariffed items from the electric equipment sector exceeds US$50 bn in value,including nuclear reactors,boilers,machinery and mechanical appliances,electrical machinery and equipment and parts.We believe that the new tariffs imposed may lead to decline in US exports among major Chinese power equipment producers in the industry going forward.本次涉及的大型电力设备的总规模在500 亿美元以上，包括核子反应堆，锅炉，机械器具及零件，电机，电气设备等。我们认为新征收的关税将导致国内大型电气设备制造商于未来对美国出口业务的下滑。Environmental Protection 环保 A possible relaxation in monetary policy to hedge against the risk of possible slowdown in economic growth can 为对冲经济增长可能放缓的风险而可能放松货币政策，可以使环保公司更易获得新融资作为营运资金或新作投资。Market Strategy P See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 11 Table_PageHeader Market Strategy 14 May 2019 Market Strategy 市场策略 benefit environmental protection companies to gain new financing more easily as working capital or new investment.Health Care 医药 The heating up of Sino-US trade friction will have limited impact on Chinas healthcare sector,as pharmaceutical products exported to the US only accounts for no more than 2.5%of the industrial output value of Chinas healthcare sector.Exports mainly consist of APIs and medical devices(most of which have been slapped with tariffs in the first batch)and therefore profit margin of corresponding manufacturers will suffer.In addition,some domestic CMO/CRO enterprises may also be affected,if they have business co-operations with pharmaceutical enterprises in the US.中美贸易战继续升温，对医药行业影响有限，皆因我国医药产品对美国的出口总额仅占我国医药工业产值不足2.5%。出口产品以原料药与医疗器械为主(大部分已在第一批被加征关税)，因此，相应生产企业的利润率将承压。另外，部分国内 CMO/CRO 企业由于与美国医药企业存在商业合作，亦可能会受到一定影响。Infrastructure 基建 Domestic infrastructure investment might increase to hedge against a possible slowdown in economic growth due to reduced international trade.国内基础设施投资可能会增加，以对冲国际贸易减少而可能造成的经济增长放缓。Manufacturing 工业制造 Increased tariffs will reduce export to the US market.However,exports amount for high-end manufacturing products to the US market is low.Domestic manufacturing companies might even benefit if trade war happens and if the RMB depreciates,this will help exports increase in other overseas markets.For imports,over 70%of parts are produced domestically,while the key components,such as IBGT,are not sourced from the US market.关税增加将减少对美国市场的出口。但是，高端制造业产品出口到美国的数量并不多。但如果发生贸易战令人民币贬值，甚至有助于推动对其他海外市场的出口增长。进口方面，以铁路制造行业为例，超过 70的零部件是在国内生产的，而 IBGT 等关键部件则主要来自欧洲及日本，并不是从美国市场采购。Ports 港口 The increase in tariffs has already had an inhibitory effect on the export of Chinese goods.According to data released by China Customs,in the first four months of this year,Chinas exports to the United States fell by 10.1%year-on-year,significantly lower than Chinas exports to other regions by 2.5%.We expect to drag the domestic 加征关税对中国商品的出口已经产生抑制作用。从中国海关公布的数据来看，今年前四个月，中国对美国出口同比下降 10.1%，明显低于中国对其他地区出口增长 2.5%，我们预计将拖累国内 2019 年吞吐量 0.1-0.2 个百分点。Market Strategy P See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 11 Table_PageHeader Market Strategy 14 May 2019 Market Strategy 市场策略 2019 throughput by 0.1-0.2 percentage points.Shipping and Logistics 航运物流 The increase in the tariff rate of 200 billion US dollars of goods in force may put further downward pressure on the external demand of related commodities.Such as electrical equipment,machinery,tools and parts,furniture,vehicles and their parts,etc.,to reduce the need for consolidation.On the other hand,China may cancel the import of agricultural products and natural gas to the United States,affecting the demand for bulk cargo transportation.生效的 2,000 亿美元商品关税税率的提高可能使相关商品的外需面临进一步下行压力。如电气设备、机械器、具及零件、家具、车辆及其零件等，相应减少集运需求。另一方面，中国可能将取消对美进口农产品和天然气，影响散货运输需求。Telecommunication Equipment 通信设备 Optical instruments are included in the U.S.tariff list,which will affect Sunny Optical.However,revenue from the U.S.only accounted for 2.1%of Sunny Opticals total revenue,thus the impact will be small.光学设备包含在美国税务清单中，影响舜宇光学。然而，来自美国的收入仅占舜宇光学总收入的 2.1%，因此影响较小。Source:Guotai Junan International.The United States intends to increase the scope of taxation on Chinese exports,among which the mobile phone industry,computer industry and toy industry may be hit.According to the statement from the US trade representatives,the US would impose tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion or so of goods on May 10.In 2018,according to data from the US Department of Commerce,Chinas exports to the US totaled US$539.5 billion.If the new tax policy is implemented,almost all Chinese exports to the US will face tariffs to varying degrees,considering the range of previous goods which have had tariffs imposed.Among the untaxed commodities,mobile phones,computers and toys are relatively large in scale,which will affect prosperity of related industries and their industrial chains and also impact American consumers.美方拟增加对中国出口商品征税范围，其中手机、电脑及玩具类行业将受较大冲击。美方拟增加对中国出口商品征税范围，其中手机、电脑及玩具类行业将受较大冲击。根据美国贸易代表处 5 月 10 日公告，美方将对剩余约 3,000 亿美元商品加征关税。截止 2018 年 12 月，按美国商务部的数据，中国对美国出口商品总额为 5,395 亿美元，叠加之前已经加税商品范围，如果新的征税政策实施那么几乎所有中国对美出口商品均将面临不同程度的关税水平。其中在未实施征税商品范围中手机、电脑、玩具类出口规模较大，这将在一定程度上影响相关行业及其产业链景气，同时亦将冲击美国的消费市场。Market Strategy P See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 11 Table_PageHeader Market Strategy 14 May 2019 Market Strategy 市场策略 Top 10 imports from China which have not had tariffs imposed in the current dispute(USD bn)前前 10 项未加征关税的中国进口商品项未加征关税的中国进口商品(十亿美元十亿美元)Source:US International Trade Commission,Bloomberg.Foreign trade is faced with risk of downward pressure;the fundamentals of Chinas economy remains stable from a long-term perspective.In the first quarter of 2019,net exports of goods and services contributed 22.8%to YoY GDP growth and contributed-8.6%in 2018.This round of trade friction will have negative impacts on Chinas export data,which will also drag down Chinas economic growth.Chinas export structure has continued to be optimized and its exports scale to ASEAN and One Belt and One Road countries is increasing.The share of merchandise exported to the US has declined steadily.Chinas share of total exports to the US fell to 16.4%in April 2019,2.8 percentage points lower than that of the whole year of 2018.The shock to exports will be somewhat less severe than expected.进出口数据有回落风险，中长期经济进出口数据有回落风险，中长期经济稳定稳定。2019 年 1 季度货物和服务净出口对于 GDP 同比增速贡献率为 22.8%，2018 年则贡献-8.6%。此轮贸易摩擦将会对中国出口数据造成负面影响，中国经济增速亦将受此拖累。但随着中国出口结构的持续优化，对于东盟及一带一路国家的出口规模在提升，对美国出口贸易占比持续下降；截止 2019 年 4 月中国对美国出口占总额降至 16.4%，较 2018 年末下降 2.8 个百分点。出口方面的冲击在一定程度上将较预期略有缓和。We expect the Hong Kong stock market to experience downward pressure in the short term.The decline in scale of exports may lead to the narrowing of trade surplus and the RMB exchange rate may face short-term pressure.However,the recent countercyclical policy adjustments and deepening reform policy in the mainland have gradually taken effect and signs of improvements in the economy of China continued.We expect the trade agreement between China and the US to be in the interest of both sides,but the escalation of short-term friction will still impact risk appetite among investors.We expect the Hong Kong stock market to experience downward pressure in the short term.预计港股短期内有下行压力预计港股短期内有下行压力。由于出口规模回落可能导致贸易顺差的收窄，人民币汇率短期承压。但近期内地逆周期政策调节及深化改革政策逐步显现作用，经济向好迹象持续显现。我们预计中美仍将朝着达成符合双方利益贸易协议的方向迈进，但短期摩擦的升级仍使得投资者风险偏好走低，我们预计港股短期内有下行压力。44.838.711.95.44.64.54.02.52.42.30 10 20 30 40 50 CellphonesLaptopsWheeled toys,puzzles,scale modelsVideo game consolesComputer monitors other than LCD,CRT displaysFlat pnel TVs smaller than 13.5 and VCR or other playerStorage devices,e.g.USB drives,hard disksTelephone set partsPlastic articlesMultifuncaition printers Market Strategy P See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 11 Table_PageHeader Market Strategy 14 May 2019 Market Strategy 市场策略 Merchandise catalogue for Chinese exports to US according to HS classifications(USD thousand)按照按照 HS 分类中国对美国出口商品行业分类数据（千美元）分类中国对美国出口商品行业分类数据（千美元）2018 年对美年对美 出口总额出口总额（Total exports to US in 2018）占中国总出口占中国总出口 HS 类别比例类别比例（The proportion of Chinas total exports in HS category）占比中国对美出口占比中国对美出口总额出口比例总额出口比例（The proportion of Chinas total exports to the United States）第第 1 类类 活动物活动物;动物产品动物产品 Section I:Live Animals;Animal Products 2,060,413 11.58%0.43%01 章 活动物 Chapter 1 Live animals 35,027 6.44%0.01%02 章 肉及食用杂碎 Chapter 2 Meat and edible meat offal 3,182 0.37%0.00%03 章 鱼及其它水生无脊椎动物 Chapter 3 Fish and crustaceans,molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates 1,730,609 13.05%0.36%04 章 乳;蛋;蜂蜜;其他食用动物产品 Chapter 4 Dairy produce;birds eggs;natural honey;edible products of animal origin,not elsewhere specified or included 16,148 2.74%0.00%05 章 其他动物产品 Chapter 5 Products of animal origin,not elsewhere specified or included 275,447 10.87%0.06%第第 2 类类 植物产品植物产品 Section II:Vegetable Products 1,535,259 5.99%0.32%06 章 活植物;茎、根;插花、簇叶 Chapter 6 Live trees and other plants;bulbs,roots and the like;cut flowers and ornamental foliage 52,452 13.83%0.01%07 章 食用蔬菜、根及块茎 Chapter 7 Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers 600,712 5.71%0.13%08 章 食用水果及坚果;甜瓜等水果的果皮 Chapter 8 Edible fruit and nuts;peel of citrus fruit or melons 162,779 3.08%0.03%09 章 咖啡、茶、马黛茶及调味香料 Chapter 9 Coffee,tea,mat and spices 238,863 7.19%0.05%10 章 谷物 Chapter 10 Cereals 1,796 0.19%0.00%11 章 制粉工业产品;麦芽;淀粉等;面筋 Chapter 11 Products of the milling industry;malt;starches;inulin;wheat gluten 11,278 1.42%0.00%12 章 油籽;子仁;工业或药用植物;饲料 Chapter 12 Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits;miscellaneous grains,seeds and fruits;industrial or medicinal plants;straw and fodder 172,674 6.35%0.04%13 章 虫胶;树胶、树脂及其他植物液、汁 Chapter 13 Lac;gums,resins and other vegetable saps and extracts 284,357 18.61%0.06%14 章 编结用植物材料;其他植物产品 Chapter 14 Vegetable plaiting materials;vegetable products not elsewhere specified or included 10,348 8.10%0.00%第第 3 类类 动、植物油、脂、蜡动、植物油、脂、蜡;精制食用油脂精制食用油脂 Section III:Animal or Vegetable Fats and Oils and Their Cleavage Products;Prepared Edible Fats;Animal or Vegetable Waxes 88,297 8.07%0.02%15 章 动、植物油、脂、蜡;精制食用油脂 Chapter 15Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products prepared edible fats;animal or vegetable waxes 88,297 8.07%0.02%第第 4 类类 食品食品;饮料、酒及醋饮料、酒及醋;烟草及制品烟草及制