亚开行-中国的崛起及其对日本创新的竞争效应（英文）-2019.3-21页.pdf

ADBI Working Paper Series THE RISE OF THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA AND ITS COMPETITION EFFECTS ON INNOVATION IN JAPAN Nobuaki Yamashita and Isamu Yamauchi No.939 March 2019 Asian Development Bank Institute The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series;the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change.ADBIs working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion.Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication.Suggested citation:Yamashita,N.and I.Yamauchi.2019.The Rise of the Peoples Republic of China and Its Competition Effects on Innovation in Japan.ADBI Working Paper 939.Tokyo:Asian Development Bank Institute.Available:https:/www.adb.org/publications/rise-prc-and-its-competition-effects-innovation-japan Please contact the authors for information about this paper.Email:nobu.yamashitarmit.edu.au Nobuaki Yamashita is a Senior Lecturer,Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology,Australia.Isamu Yamauchi is a Research Associate at the Research Institute of Economy,Trade and Industry(RIETI)and a Junior Associate Professor at Meiji Gakuin University.The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI,ADB,its Board of Directors,or the governments they represent.ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use.Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.Working papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published.This study was undertaken as a part of the project“Mobility of Knowledge and the Innovation Performance of Japanese Firms”at the Research Institute of Economy,Trade and Industry(RIETI)in Tokyo,Japan.For useful suggestions and comments,we would like to thank Yuqing Xing,Matthias Helble,and participants at the ADB workshop.Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building,8th Floor 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki,Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008,Japan Tel:+81-3-3593-5500 Fax:+81-3-3593-5571 URL:www.adbi.org E-mail:infoadbi.org 2019 Asian Development Bank Institute ADBI Working Paper 939 Yamashita and Yamauchi Abstract This paper empirically examines the“defensive innovation”hypothesis that firms with higher exposure to low-wage economy import competition intensively undertake more innovative activity by using a high quality Japanese firm-level panel dataset over the period 19942005.The novel feature of the analysis is the relation of firm-level variations of patent usage to import competition.The results suggest that intensified import competition from the Peoples Republic of China has resulted in greater innovative activity by Japanese firms,consistent with the findings of European firms in Bloom et al.(2016).Moreover,such competition has also led to an increase in non-used patents.JEL Classification:O00,F10 ADBI Working Paper 939 Yamashita and Yamauchi Contents 1.INTRODUCTION.1 2.THE RISE OF THE PRC IN WORLD TRADE.2 3.DATA AND VARIABLES.6 3.1 Firm-level Patent Data.6 3.2 Japan Industry Productivity Data.7 4.EMPIRICAL SPECIFICATION AND RESULTS.9 5.RESULTS.10 6.CONCLUSION.13 REFERENCES.14 APPENDIX.17 ADBI Working Paper 939 Yamashita and Yamauchi 1 1.INTRODUCTION This paper examines the“defensive innovation”hypothesis first discussed in Wood(1994)and subsequently formalized in Thoenig and Verdier(2003).As a reaction to import competition from low-wage economies,firms in developed economies would respond by upgrading their innovative activities,leading to“defensive skill-biased innovation.”In a broader context,the effect of competition on the rate of innovation has been one of the most studied areas in the literature(e.g,Aghion et al.2005).In the study most relevant to our paper,Bloom et al.(2016)found that a large sample of European firms increased a wide range of their innovative activities(patenting,research and development(R&D)expenditures,computer use,and the TFP growth),driven by intensified competition from the Peoples Republic of China(PRC).This innovation was conducted within-firm.1 Building on the foundation set by the previously mentioned studies,this paper examines the causal effect of intensified Chinese import competition on the innovative activities of a panel of Japanese firms for the period 19942005.We focus on patent usage data as an indicator of innovative outputs.Unlike other studies using patent statistics,this study adds to the literature by exploring strategic patent usage as responses to import competition from a low-wage economy(the PRC).It is generally acknowledged that patent statistics are meaningful proxies for firm-level innovation,but it is well known that firm-level patenting serves as much more than just an indicator of knowledge capital output(Nagaoka et al.2010).Well-known inventor surveys(e.g.,the RIETI-Georgia Tech US-Japan survey)have revealed that many of the patents are not used to introduce new products into the market;instead,they are used as effective strategic instruments to“block”other competitors from innovating or imitating.Boldrin and Levine(2013)present a nice case involving Microsoft a market incumbent with a stockpile of patents blocking Google in the smartphone market).Studying innovative firms responses to Chinese import competition provides an interesting and excellent testing ground for the following reasons:First,over the past decades,the PRC has emerged as a pivotal assembly-export economy of high-tech products(mainly,electronics),importing parts and components from other advanced economies and exporting final products(including the famous iPhone).Accordingly,the PRCs export bundle has dramatically changed from labor-intensive goods to high-tech products,exerting considerable competitive pressures on firms in developed economies.Second,many Chinese exports compete at lower cost margins than most high-tech products.For instance,a study by Schott(2008 found that the PRCs export similarity index has become closer to that of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)economies,but the unit prices of Chinese exports have been consistently lower than OECD economies.The finding suggests that Chinese import competition leads Japanese firms to expand their innovative activities,as found by Bloom et al.(2016.The expansion is partly driven by an increase in firms numbers of unused patents,which reflect the strategic use of intellectual property(IP)protection.The organization of this paper is as follows.The next section presents an overview of the PRC in world trade.Section 3 discusses the dataset,followed in Section 4 by the 1 Amiti and Khandelwal(2013)find that increased import competition(measured by a decline in tariffs)spurs a economys export quality(measured by the market share)in the US market.ADBI Working Paper 939 Yamashita and Yamauchi 2 empirical approach and a discussion of the preliminary findings.Section 5 concludes the paper.2.THE RISE OF THE PRC IN WORLD TRADE Figure 1-A depicts the rise of the PRC in world exports for the period 19902011.In 1990,the PRCs exports accounted for a tiny share(around 3%)of world exports.Since then,the PRCs share has gradually increased.In particular,the PRCs export growth has risen since the early 2000s.In the second half of 2000,the PRC has achieved formidable export expansion by overtaking Germany for the position of the worlds largest exporter,accounting for more than 10%of world exports.The PRCs export share has been growing without any disruptions,while the world shares of Japan,the United States and Germany have not grown during the same period.At the same time,the PRC has become an important economy in the world important market(Figure 1-B).While the United States still accounts for the bulk of world imports(around 1520%in world imports),its share has gradually been declining since 2000.By contrast,the PRCs share has steadily increased to close to 10%in 2011.Figure 1:The Rise of the Peoples Republic of China in World Trade,19902011(%in total exports)Source:UN Comtrade.With the rise of the PRC in world trade,its specialization has dramatically changed,as well.Figure 2 depicts the share of relatively more capital-and technology-intensive products like electrical machinery and household electric appliances as compared to more labor-intensive products like textiles and toys.There has been a notable shift of comparative advantages from more labor-intensive products toward more capital-and technology-intensive products.In 1992,textiles and toys accounted for approximately 45%of the PRCs total exports.However,this share continuously declined and dropped to close to 20%in 2011.On the other hand,the export share of electrical machinery and household appliances doubled its share,from less than 15%in 1992 to 30%in 2011.In this product category,the export composition is highly concentrated in Information Communication Technology(ICT)products.Other important product ADBI Working Paper 939 Yamashita and Yamauchi 3 categories include office machines,and telecommunications sound equipment(including mobile phones).Based on the income-weighted export bundle of Chinese goods,some commentators argue that this is a sign that the technological capability of the PRC is rapidly converging toward the technological frontier of advanced OECD economies,and is now directly competing with them in the export market.However,this should be interpreted cautiously.Allowing for intra-product specialization,it is known that the PRCs export specialization still rests largely on the labor-intensive assembly stage rather than specialization in technological content(Athukorala and Yamashita,2006).In other words,the PRCs comparative advantages still rests on a labor-intensive segment in high-tech products,even though these products are exported from the PRC(a final assembly economy).This explains why Schott(2008)observes that the unit price of Chinese export bundles are at the lower end of the price range,as compared to those of OECD economies(the price competitiveness coming from the PRCs lower labor costs).In sum,the bulk of Chinese exports are mass-market commodities assembled with relatively low unit costs and imported high-tech parts and components from other industrial economies(notebook computers,mobile phones).Figure 2:Structural Changes in the Peoples Republic of Chinas Export Product Compositions,19902011(%in total exports)Source:UN Comtrade.Table 1 displays the top eight and bottom eight industries by degree of Chinese import competition 1994(the beginning of the estimation period).2 In the textile industry,where Chinese firms are considered to have comparative advantages,the degree of import competition was already strong in 1994 of Japans import of textile products,49%came from the PRC.That share continued to increase,reaching 77%in 2005.More strikingly,the largest increase in the PRCs share of Japanese imports is in office and service industry machines;this share rose from 19%in 1994 to 76%in 2005.2 Year 1990 data is used in an experimental stage,but the order-import completion-exposed industries are roughly the same in year 1994).ADBI Working Paper 939 Yamashita and Yamauchi 4 Correspondingly,in the industries whereby the PRCs share increased,there was a decline in the shares of Asian newly industrializing economies(NIEs)Taipei,China;Hong Kong,China;Republic of Korea;and Singapore)and the US.In the bottom eight industries,an increase in the PRCs share is palpable,with strong growth in electronic equipment and semiconductor devices.Production networks between Japan and the PRC may explain an expansion in Chinese import in those high-tech industries.Table 1:Change of Import Competition by Source Economies/Groups in Japanese Manufacturing Industry,1994 and 2005 1994 PRC Asian NIEs SE Asia US Manufacturing,total 11.4 15.9 10.2 25.7 Top 8 sectors in 1994 Coal products 68.9 13.2 0.0 2.7 Textile products 48.7 15.1 8.0 5.6 Miscellaneous ceramic,stone and clay products 34.4 19.1 3.0 13.6 Rubber products 33.4 18.3 10.1 15.7 Leather and leather products 26.5 19.9 5.8 5.2 Electrical generating,transmission,distribution and industrial apparatus 24.4 24.1 19.5 19.6 Pig iron and crude steel 23.7 4.0 3.0 7.0 Office and service industry machines 19.4 16.5 21.6 22.1 Bottom 8 sectors in 1994 Chemical fibers 1.2 48.9 2.7 26.4 Petroleum products 1.0 22.4 12.0 6.2 Electronic equipment and electric measuring instruments 0.6 3.1 0.6 63.9 Pulp,paper,and coated and glazed paper 0.5 1.7 0.9 40.7 Semiconductor devices and integrated circuits 0.4 41.7 8.2 49.1 Printing,plate making for printing and bookbinding 0.4 26.0 1.0 64.7 Tobacco 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.3 Motor vehicles 0.0 0.3 0.0 27.7 2005 PRC Asian NIEs SE Asia US Manufacturing,total 28.6 12.8 10.9 15.2 Top 8 sectors in 1994 Coal products 92.2 1.5 0.0 0.5 Textile products 76.5 3.5 4.0 2.0 Miscellaneous ceramic,stone and clay products 60.4 5.0 3.8 9.6 Rubber products 58.4 6.9 17.2 5.5 Leather and leather products 46.5 1.8 2.7 2.0 Electrical generating,transmission,distribution and industrial apparatus 47.2 8.5 17.2 10.2 ADBI Working Paper 939 Yamashita and Yamauchi 5 Pig iron and crude steel 29.7 6.7 1.5 1.7 Office and service industry machines 76.2 8.2 7.7 2.7 continued on next page Table 1 continued 2005 PRC Asian NIEs SE Asia US Bottom 8 sectors in 1994 Chemical fibers 13.9 34.2 15.5 13.3 Petroleum products 2.8 21.1 12.8 2.5 Electronic equipment and electric measuring instruments 10.5 3.5 4.0 38.8 Pulp,paper,and coated and glazed paper 7.3 6.5 13.4 33.5 Semiconductor devices and integrated circuits 7.9 48.2 19.1 18.9 Printing,plate making for printing and bookbinding 13.5 11.2 4.5 23.3 Tobacco 0.6 0.1 0.1 89.6 Motor vehicles 1.4 1.9 0.9 8.8 Change 9405 PRC Asian NIEs SE Asia US Manufacturing,total 17.2 3.1 0.7 10.5 Top 8 sectors in 1994 Coal products 23.3 11.7 0.0 2.2 Textile products 27.8 11.6 4.0 3.6 Miscellaneous ceramic,stone and clay products 26.0 14.1 0.9 4.1 Rubber products 25.0 11.5 7.2 10.2 Leather and leather products 20.0 18.0 3.1 3.3 Electrical generating,transmission,distribution and industrial apparatus 22.8 15.6 2.3 9.4 Pig iron and crude steel 6.0 2.7 1.5 5.3 Office and service industry machines 56.7 8.4 13.9 19.4 Bottom 8 sectors in 1994 Chemical fibers 12.7 14.7 12.8 13.1 Petroleum products 1.8 1.4 0.8 3.7 Electronic equipment and electric measuring instruments 9.9 0.4 3.4 25.1 Pulp,paper,and coated and glazed paper 6.8 4.8 12.6 7.1 Semiconductor devices and integrated circuits 7.5 6.5 10.9 30.3 Printing,plate making for printing and bookbinding 13.1 14.8 3.5 41.4 Tobacco 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.8 Motor vehicles 1.4 1.7 0.9 18.9 Source:JIP 2013 database.ADBI Working Paper 939 Yamashita and Yamauchi 6 3.DATA AND VARIABLES 3.1 Firm-level Patent Data Patent statistics as an indicator for innovative outputs have recently become widely available to researchers because of signifi