限制对华贸易如何终结美国半导体业的领导地位报告（英）-BCG-2020.3-42页.pdf

1 BCG|HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS ABOUT THIS REPORT To assess how ongoing US-China trade frictions may affect the US semiconductor industry,the Semiconductor Industry Association(SIA)commissioned Boston Consulting Group to conduct an independent study.The work included detailed modeling of the global demand and supply dynamics across end application markets and semiconductor product categories.BCG is wholly responsible for the analysis and conclusions that appear in this report.ABOUT BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP Boston Consulting Group(BCG)is a leading global management consulting firm,with offices in over 50 countries.BCG partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change,enabling organizations to grow,building competitive advantage,and driving bottom-line impact.ABOUT THE AUTHORS Antonio VarasAntonio Varas is a managing director and senior partner in the Silicon Valley office of Boston Consulting Group and is a core member of its Technology,Media&Telecommunications practice.You may contact him by email at .Raj VaradarajanRaj Varadarajan is a managing director and senior partner in the firms Dallas office and leads its Global Advantage practice in North America.You may contact him by email at .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report would not have been possible without the contributions of our BCG colleagues Abhinav Duggal,Ray Loa,Christine Jarjour,and Emily Horton.The authors also thank Pete Engardio for writing assistance and Steven Gray,Katherine Andrews,Kim Friedman,Abby Garland,Frank Mller-Pierstorff,Shannon Nardi,Paola Oliviero,and Alex Perez for editing,design,production,and marketing.2 BCG|HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS CONTENTS 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 INTRODUCTION 7 THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY FOR THE US 9 The Virtuous Circle Enabling US Semiconductor Leadership 12 Intensifying Foreign Competition 16 WHY US-CHINA FRICTIONS THREATEN US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS 17 The Impact of Scenario 1:Perpetuation of the Status Quo 21 The Impact of Scenario 2:Technology Decoupling 26 Structural Implications for the Semiconductor Industry 30 PRESERVING“WIN-WIN”GLOBAL ACCESS FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY 32 APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY 3 BCG|HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY strong semiconductor industry is critical to US global economic competitiveness and national security in an era of digital transformation and artificial intelligence.The US has long been the global semiconductor leader,with a 45%to 50%share.US leadership is grounded in a virtuous innovation cycle that relies on access to global markets to achieve the scale needed to fund very large R&D investments that consistently maintain US technology ahead of global competitors.Excluding the manufacturing activity of Chinese factories for foreign companies,Chinese companies account for 23%of global semiconductor demand.Today,Chinas semiconductor industry(without the manufacturing plants built by foreign semiconductor companies in China)covers only 14%of its domestic demand.We estimate that the“Made in China 2025”plan will increase Chinas semiconductor self-sufficiency to about 25%to 40%by 2025,reducing the US global share by 2 to 5 percentage points.Broad unilateral restrictions on Chinese access to US technology could significantly deepen and accelerate the share erosion for US companies.(See Exhibit 1.)Established alternative non-US suppliers exist already for over 70%of Chinese semiconductor demand.Over the next three to five years,US companies could:Lose 8 percentage points of global share and 16%of their revenues,if the US maintains the restrictions enacted with the current Entity List.Lose 18 percentage points of global share and 37%of their revenues,if the US completely bans semiconductor companies from selling to Chinese customers,effectively causing a technology decoupling from China.These drops in revenue would inevitably lead to severe cuts in R&D and capital expenditures,and the loss of 15,000 to 40,000 highly skilled direct jobs in the US semiconductor industry.As a result,South Korea would likely overtake the US as world semiconductor leader in a few years;China could attain leadership in the long term.As experience in communications network equipment and other tech sectors has shown,once the US loses its global leadership position,this dynamic effectively reverses the industrys virtuous innovation cycle and throws US companies into a downward spiral of rapidly declining competitiveness and shrinking market share and margins.Lower R&D investment would inhibit the US semiconductor industrys A 4 BCG|HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS ability to deliver the breakthroughs that US technology and defense sectors rely on to maintain global leadership,and ultimately could force them to depend on foreign semiconductor suppliers.Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group.All rights reserved.2018BaselineMade in China 2025 Plan aloneScenario 1:Perpetuation of status quoScenario 2:Technology decouplingImpact on US revenue from Chinese customers1-15 to-40%Replacement by Chinese suppliers where available-55%Proactive supplier diversification by Chinese OEMs-100%Completely shut out of the Chinese market Time frame-Gradual over 5 yearsMost of impact in 2-3 yearsImmediately after banGlobal US market share 48%43-46%40%30%Impact vs.2018 Baseline-2 to-5 points-8 points-18 pointsGlobal US revenue($billions)226205-220190143 Impact vs.2018 Baseline-3%to-9%-16%-37%US R&D investment2($billions)4036-3930-3516-28 Impact vs.2018 Baseline-2%to-10%-13%to-25%-30%to-60%Global market leaderSource:BCG analysis using market data from Gartner and company reports 1Defined as purchases from Chinese device makers.It does not include products shipped to China for devices made by non-Chinese companies 2Sum of the reported R&D spend of the top 20 US semiconductor companies by revenue,representing 90%+of the total US semiconductor industry salesSouth Korea(near term)China(long term)United StatesUnited StatesEXHIBIT 1|US-China Frictions Could Overturn US Leadership in Semiconductors United StatesRestrictions on Chinese access to US technology In order to avoid these negative outcomes,policymakers must devise solutions that simultaneously address US national security concerns and preserve global market access for US semiconductor companies a fundamental pillar of the proven innovation model that will allow the industry to continue to deliver technology breakthroughs that are crucial for US economic competitiveness and national security.5 BCG|HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS INTRODUCTION .S.leadership in semiconductor technology is essential for economic competitiveness and national securityparticularly as the world advances into the era of digital transformation and artificial intelligence(AI).The leadership position of the US,which has long supplied 45%to 50%of worldwide semiconductor demand,is grounded in an innovation-intensive model that relies on access to global markets.This access provides the large customer base needed to achieve scale to fund the high levels of investment in R&D that allow US companies to maintain their technological edge over global competitors,and it enables the highly specialized supply chains required for the industrys complex manufacturing processes.China accounts for a very large portion of the global semiconductor market,generating approximately 23%of demand in 2018.The US-China frictions have generated significant headwinds for US semiconductor companies.Since the start of the trade war the median year-on-year revenue growth of the top 25 US semiconductor companies has plummeted from 10%in the four quarters immediately prior to the implementation of the first rounds of tariffs in July 2018,to approximately 1%in late 2018.And in each of the three quarters after the US restricted sales of certain technology products to Huawei in May 2019,the top US semiconductor companies have reported a median revenue decline of between 4%and 9%.Many of these companies have cited the trade conflict with China as a significant factor in their performance.Although the“phase one”trade agreement signed by the US and China in January 2020 contains provisions on key issues for the technology industry,such as Chinas protection of intellectual property and its technology transfer practices,it does not address other issues such as the direct state support that China gives to its domestic semiconductor industry.In addition,restrictions on exports of US-based technology products to certain Chinese entities associated with US national security concerns still remain in place.In this report,we evaluate how the ongoing US-China frictions may affect the US semiconductor industry under two scenarios.The first scenario assumes that current restrictions will remain in place,perpetuating the status quo.The second scenario considers a further escalation that results in a complete halt in bilateral technology trade,effectively decoupling the US and Chinese technology industries.To quantify the potential risk to the US semiconductor industry,we have developed an analytical market model that provides a detailed view of semiconductor demand and supply structure by region,end application market,and product line.This model,which is based on public data,allows us to identify the portion of demand that comes from Chinese customers for each of the 32 product lines considered in our global semiconductor market U 6 BCG|HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS taxonomy.It also estimates how much of that demand is currently covered by US suppliers and how much goes to other suppliers that could take share from US companies that face restrictions in China.We found that continued restrictions on exports to China could have profound negative repercussions for the US semiconductor industry.Our analysis shows that the USs long-standing global leadership position in semiconductors is ultimately at stake.While this report does not offer policy recommendations,our findings support the need for a more constructive,targeted and multilateral approach to the current frictions in technology trade between the US and China.A solution that addresses national security concerns and simultaneously preserves the fundamentals of the semiconductor industrys innovation-led model is necessary if US semiconductor companies are to continue delivering technology breakthroughs that benefit enterprises and consumers in the US and around the world.7 BCG|HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY FOR THE US strong,financially healthy semiconductor industry is strategically important to the US.Semiconductors enable technology breakthroughs that drive economic growth and are critical for national security.E Enablnablinging T Technology echnology B Breakthroughsreakthroughs.The semiconductor industry has been at the heart of successive revolutionary advances in information and communication technology(ICT)over the past three decades.ICT breakthroughs,in turn,have become a driving force behind economic growth,enabling the US to significantly outperform other high-income countries both in productivity growth and in real GDP growth since 1988.The benefits of these technological advances made possible by US semiconductor technology have reached the rest of the world as well.For example,mobile communications has become the fastest globally adopted technology in history,and its global economic impact is estimated to exceed$1 trillion.Over three decades,the number of transistors per wafer has increased by a factor of almost 1 million,yielding a 450,000-fold gain in processing power and a cost reduction of 20%to 30%per year.The blazing speed of this technological improvement has permitted the transition from mainframes in the 1980s to smartphones in the 2010s.Today,more than 5 billion consumers worldwide own a smartphone that has more computing power than the mainframe computer NASA used to send Apollo 11 to the moon.As a result,the intensity of semiconductor utilization(industry revenues as a percentage of worldwide nominal GDP)has surged by a factor of 2.8 since 1987.Global semiconductor demand has been growing at an annual average rate of 8.6%,reaching$475 billion in 2018.We are now in the early stages of another massive technology-driven change in the global economy:the era of digital transformation and AI.Revolutionary applications such as augmented/virtual-reality experiences,self-driving vehicles,the Internet of Things(IoT),and Industry 4.0 systems,along with smart cities,are on their way to becoming commercial realities.Enabling each of these new applications are advances in semiconductor technology,including the following:Sensors that gather rich contextual data in real time 5G technology that can provide secure high-speed,low-latency wireless connectivity for billions of devices A 8 BCG|HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS High-performance processing units that power computers capable of machine learning Advanced low-power processors built into all sorts of edge computing devices that can perform very complex tasks,such as computer vision and natural-language comprehension In addition,the semiconductor industry is now testing the first quantum computing prototypes,which can operate at speeds 100 million times faster than current computers.Quantum computing could revolutionize areas that require massive computing intensity,such as AI and cybersecurity.S Safeguardingafeguarding N National ational S Securityecurity.The semiconductor industry emerged in the 1950s from its origins in the US defense industry.Although the US Department of Defense(DoD)today accounts for approximately 1%of the industrys revenue,electronics components are ubiquitous in defense and weapons systems,and therefore remain critical to US military capabilities.The defense modernization priorities laid out in the 2018 US National Defense Strategy include microelectronics,5G,and quantum science as strategic areas requiring US investment.Other priority areassuch as cybersecurity,AI,autonomous systems,and advanced imaging equipmentrely heavily on advanced semiconductor capabilities,as well.(See Exhibit 2.)“Superiority in these technologies is the key to deterring or winning future conflicts,”wrote Mike Griffin,the US Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering,in a recent article in Defense News.Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group.All rights reserved