世界银行-贫困与共同繁荣2018年：拼凑贫困之谜（英文）-2019.1-201页.pdf

PIECING TOGETHER POVERTYPUZZLETHEPIECING TOGETHER POVERTYPUZZLETHE 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 21 20 19 18This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The fi ndings,interpre-tations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refl ect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other informa-tion shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concern-ing the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifi cally reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:World Bank.2018.Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018:Piecing Together the Poverty Puzzle.Washington,DC:World Bank.License:Creative Commons Attribu-tion CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an offi cial World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content con-tained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,fi gures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN(paper):978-1-4648-1330-6ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-1360-3DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1330-6Cover design:Patricia Hord.Graphik DesignLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.v Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii About the Team xv Abbreviations xix Overview 1 Staying focused on the poorest 4 Monitoring progress in a growing world 7 Piecing together the poverty puzzle 12 Introduction 151 Ending Extreme Poverty:Progress,but Uneven and Slowing 19 Monitoring extreme poverty:A quarter century of progress 19 Nowcasts and forecasts to 2030 22 Uneven progress:A regional profile of poverty reduction 24 Drilling down:The countries with the most poor 29 Socioeconomic and demographic profile of global poverty 37 Conclusions 39 Annex 1A Historical global and regional poverty estimates 41 Annex 1B Validation check of the 2030 poverty projections 46 Notes 472 Shared Prosperity:Mixed Progress 49 Beyond extreme poverty:A focus on the bottom 40 49 Continued progress in most economies though some are falling short 50 The poorest countries have limited information about shared prosperity 54 Growth at the bottom and the top is not always even 55 Who are the bottom 40?58 Monitoring the twin goals 59Contentsvi POVERTY AND SHARED PROSPERITY 2018 Annex 2A Shared prosperity definitions 62 Annex 2B Shared prosperity estimates by economy 63 Notes 663 Higher Standards for a Growing World 67 Introduction 67 Higher poverty lines for everyone:US$3.20 and US$5.50 a day 68 Higher lines tailored to country circumstances:Societal poverty 72 Why not simply use national poverty lines?79 Conclusion 81 Annex 3A Historical global and regional poverty estimates 83 Notes 854 Beyond Monetary Poverty 87 Why look beyond monetary poverty?88 Considerations for constructing multidimensional poverty measures 90 A first global picture 96 A deeper look 103 Conclusion 108 Annex 4A Comparison of indicators used in multidimensional poverty measures 110 Annex 4B Multidimensional poverty measures:A formalization 111 Annex 4C Statistical tables 113 Notes 120 Spotlight 4.1 National multidimensional poverty indexes 1225 Inside the Household:Poor Children,Women,and Men 125 Introduction 125 Beyond headship:Gender and age profiles of the global poor 128 Differences in resources and poverty within households 132 An individual perspective on multidimensional poverty 140 Conclusion 144 Annex 5A Technical note:Estimating intrahousehold resource shares 147 Notes 148 Appendix A Data Details 151 Main databases for the report 151 Classification of economies 152 Chapter 1 data and methodology 154 Chapter 2 data and methodology 159 Chapter 3 data and methodology 161 Chapter 4 data and methodology 162 Chapter 5 data and methodology 165 Note 166 References 167 CONTENTS vii 1.1 Alignment of the SDGs and the Twin Goals of the World Bank Group 20 1.2 Chapter 1:Data Overview 21 1.3 India:Issues with the 2015 Poverty Estimate and 2030 Forecasts 32 2.1 The Global Database of Shared Prosperity 50 2.2 Country Stories 53 2.3 The Shared Prosperity Premium and Other Concepts of Inequality 56 4.1 Early Applications of Multidimensional Poverty Measurement 90 O.1 Global Extreme Poverty Rate and Headcount,19902015 2 O.2 Share of Individuals in Multidimensional Poverty,circa 2013 5 O.3 Percent of Females and Males Living in Households in Extreme Poverty,by Age Group,circa 2013 6 O.4 National and Societal Poverty Lines in a Growing World 9 O.5 Societal Poverty,Global Estimates,19902015 9 O.6 Contribution to Multidimensional Poverty,by Dimension,Selected Countries 11 O.7 Gender Gaps,Individual Multidimensional Poverty,Selected Countries 12 1.1 Global Extreme Poverty Rate and Headcount,19902015 21 1.2 Projections to 2030 of Global Extreme Poverty 23 1.3 Number of Extreme Poor by Region,19902030 25 1.4 Regional GDP per Capita Growth and Average Growth for the Extreme Poor,19902017 25 1.5 Extreme Poverty Rate by Region and Country,2015 28 1.6 Extreme Poverty,Regional and World Trends,19902015 29 1.7 Rate and Number of the Extreme Poor,by Income Group,2015 29 1.8 Global Distribution of the Extreme Poor by Region and Country,2015 30 1.9 Projections to 2030 for the Five Countries with the Most Extreme Poor in 2015 31 4.2 Incorporating Aspects of Quality into Multidimensional Poverty Measures 95 4.3 Chapter 4:Data Overview 97 5.1 Differences in Needs and Equivalence Scales 127 5.2 Chapter 5:Data Overview 128 5.3 Dietary Diversity as an Indicator of Individual-Level Food Security 135 5.4 Child Poverty 141 5.5 Gender and Socioemotional Dimensions of Poverty:Participatory Studies 145 1.10 Household Size and Dependency Ratio in Sub-Saharan Africa 34 1.11 Under-Five Mortality,Fertility,and Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 35 1.12 Concentration of Extreme Poverty in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations 36 1.13 Fragile Situations Perform Poorly in Multiple Constituent Components of Fragility 37 1A.1 Global Total Consumption Gap of the Extreme Poor,19902015 41 1B.1 Projections to 2015 of Global Extreme Poverty 46 2.1 Shared Prosperity,91 Economies,circa 201015 51 2.2 Shared Prosperity Estimates,91 Economies,by Region,Group,and Income 55 2.3 Correlation between Shared Prosperity and the Shared Prosperity Premium,91 Economies 57 2.4 Growth across Deciles of the Income Distribution,Selected Countries 58 2.5 Extreme Poverty and the Bottom 40,Selected Countries,circa 2015 59 2.6 Mean Income,by Distribution Decile,Selected Countries,2015 59 2.7 Share of Consumption or Income,by Decile,Selected Countries,circa 2015 60 2.8 Shared Prosperity and Changes in Extreme Poverty,91 Economies,circa 201015 61 2.9 Shared Prosperity among the Poorest Economies,circa 201015 61BoxesFiguresviii POVERTY AND SHARED PROSPERITY 2018 4.8 Contribution to Multidimensional Poverty(M),by Dimension,Selected Countries 106 4.9 The Poor,by Sociodemographic Characteristics,Selected Countries 107 4C.1 Share of Individuals in Multidimensional Poverty,by Region,circa 2013 119 5.1 Percent of Females and Males Living in Households in Extreme Poverty,by Age Group,circa 2013 130 5.2 Distribution of People Living in Households in Extreme Poverty,by Sex and Employment Status,circa 2013 131 5.3 Distribution of Households in Extreme Poverty,by Demographic Typology,circa 2013 131 5.4 Distribution of Households in Extreme Poverty,by Economic Typology,circa 2013 132 5.5 The Gender Gap in Food Consumption over the Life Cycle,China 134 5.6 Caloric Shortfalls of Male Heads and Other Household Members,Bangladesh 136 5.7 Estimated Consumption Allocation,Men,Women,and Children,Bangladesh and Malawi 139 5.8 Individual Poverty Rates,Nuclear Households,Bangladesh and Malawi 140 5.9 Gender Gaps,Education,and Nutrition Deprivation,Selected Countries 142 5.10 Gender Gaps,Individual Multidimensional Poverty,Selected Countries 143 A.1 Use of Income/Consumption to Measure Poverty 157 A.2 Shared Prosperity Indicators Are Less Likely in Economies at Lower GDP per Capita 160 2B.1 The Shared Prosperity Premium,91 Economies,by Region or Income Classification 66 3.1 Consumption and Income Distributions,1990 and 2015 71 3.2 National Poverty Lines and Economic Development 73 3.3 Societal Poverty Line 75 3.4 Societal Poverty,Global Estimates,19902015 77 3.5 Change in the Societal Poverty Line from Growth 78 3.6 Societal Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Costa Rica and Ecuador 79 3.7 Comparing National and Societal Poverty Lines and Rates,Vietnam,19932015 81 4.1 Share of Individuals in Multidimensional Poverty,119 Economies,circa 2013 98 4.2 Share of Individuals Deprived in at Least a Given Number of Indicators,119 Economies,circa 2013 100 4.3 Contribution of Indicators to the Adjusted Headcount Measure(M),119 Economies,circa 2013 102 4.4 Difference in the Share of the Poor in Rural Areas,Multidimensional Headcount versus Monetary Headcount,119 Economies,circa 2013 103 4.5 Contribution to Monetary and Multidimensional Poverty,by Household Type,119 Economies,circa 2013 103 4.6 Share of Individuals Deprived in at Least a Given Number of Indicators,Selected Countries 105 4.7 The Headcount Ratio,by Alternative Poverty Measures,Selected Countries 106 O.1 Shared Prosperity across the World,91 Economies,circa 201015 10 1.1 Extreme Poverty Rate by Country,2015 27 2.1 Shared Prosperity across the World,91 Economies,circa 201015 52 4.1 Provincial Poverty Rates,Ecuador 108Maps O.1 Poverty at Higher Poverty Lines,US$3.20 and US$5.50(2011 PPP)8 1.1 Age and Gender Profile of the Extreme Poor,2015 38 1.2 Education and Access to Services among the Extreme Poor and Nonpoor Households 39Tables CONTENTS ix 4.6 The Multidimensionally Poor and the Breadth of Deprivation,by Number of Deprivations,119 Economies,circa 2013 101 4.7 Regional Contributions to Multidimensional Poverty,119 Economies,circa 2013 101 4.8 Percent of Individuals Deprived,by Indicator,Selected Countries 104 4A.1 Dimensions and Indicators 110 4C.1 People Living in Monetary or Multidimensional Poverty,by Rural-Urban Areas,119 Economies,circa 2013 113 4C.2 People Living in Monetary or Multdimensional Poverty,by Household Type,119 Economies,circa 2013 113 4C.3 Individuals in Households Deprived in Each Indicator,119 Economies,circa 2013 114 4C.4 Multidimensional Poverty across Alternative Measures,119 Economies,circa 2013 117 5.1 Households in Extreme Poverty,Rates and Distribution by Headship,circa 2013 129 5.2 Recent Data Sets on Individualized Consumption 133 5.3 Individuals Misclassified by the Household Measure of Caloric Availability 136 5.4 Indicators and Dimensions,the Individual and Household Multidimensional Poverty Measure 142 A.1 Overview of Principal Data Sources by Chapter 152 A.2 Shared Prosperity Availability across Rounds 161 A.3 Surveys Used in Chapter 1 and Chapter 4 in Cases Where Different Survey Rounds Are Used 163 A.4 Household Surveys,Six-Country Sample 164 A.5 Household Surveys for Case Studies and Sharing Rule Estimates 166 1A.1 Global and Regional Extreme Poverty,19902015 42 1A.2 Extreme Poverty,by Economy,2015 43 2.1 Shared Prosperity and Shared Prosperity Premium,91 Economies,Summary Table,circa 201015 50 B2.3.1 Number of Economies with Top Incomes Estimated in the World Inequality Database and in the Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018 Report 56 2B.1 Shared Prosperity Estimates,91 Economies,circa 201015 63 2B.2 Changes in Shared Prosperity,67 Economies,circa 200813 to circa 201015 65 2B.3 Changes in the Shared Prosperity Premium,67 Economies,circa 200813 to circa 201015 65 3.1 National Poverty Lines,circa 2011 69 3.2 Poverty at Higher Poverty Lines,US$3.20 and US$5.50(2011 PPP)70 3.3 Average Societal Poverty Lines,by Region and Income Classification,19902015 76 3.4 Societal Poverty Rates,19902015 77 3A.1 Historical Trends,Global Poverty Estimates,19902015 83 3A.2 Historical Trends,Regional Poverty Rates,19902015 84 3A.3 Historical Trends,Regional Number of Extreme Poor,19902015 84 4.1 Dimensions of Well-Being and Indicators of Deprivation 93 4.2 Indicator Weights:Analysis of Three Dimensions 96 4.3 Indicator Weights:Analysis of Five Dimensions 96 4.4 People Living in Monetary or Multidimensional Poverty,119 Economies,circa 2013 97 4.5 Individuals in Households Deprived in Each Indicator,119 Economies,circa 2013 99 xiFive years ago,the World Bank Group set two overarching goals:to end extreme poverty by 2030,and to promote shared prosperity by boosting the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the population in each country.As this years Poverty and Shared Prosperity report documents,the world continues to make progress toward eliminating poverty.In 2015,approximately one-tenth of the worlds population lived in extreme povertythe lowest poverty rate in recorded history.This is an impressive achievement,considering that in 1990,more than a third of people on earth lived in extreme poverty.Since we last reported on global poverty two years ago,the number of poor has diminished by 68 million.But we cannot take succ