世界经济论坛-中东和北非的风险前景（地缘政治）（英文）-2019.4-13页.pdf

Briefing PaperThe Middle East and North Africa Risks Landscape April 2019In partnership with Marsh&McLennan Companies and Zurich Insurance GroupStrategic Partners Marsh&McLennan Companies Zurich Insurance Group Academic Advisers National University of Singapore Oxford Martin School,University of Oxford Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center,University of PennsylvaniaThe Middle East and North Africa Risks LandscapeWorld Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744Email:contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.org 2019 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Cover photo:Fayez El Quridy,35,looks through binoculars at Borg al-Arab desert in Alexandria,Egypt(REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh).3The Middle East and North Africa Risks LandscapeA Complex Risk Environment The Global and Regional Risks LandscapeRegional Risks at a GlanceMethodologyEndnotesContents451011124The Middle East and North Africa Risks LandscapeA Complex Risk EnvironmentDisruptive forces are reshaping the global and regional landscapes.The Fourth Industrial Revolution is offering new opportunity for economies that are positioned to leverage resources in the form of skills and innovation.But at the same time,the technological demands of this period,as well as fractures in the global community,are presenting a complex risk environment for stakeholders.Because the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)is home to more natural-resources dependent economies than skills-driven ones,and because the region houses existing political and societal divides,the impact of technological and geopolitical disruptions may be more pronounced here than elsewhere in the world.This briefing paper uses data from the Global Risks Report 2019 and the Regional Risks for Doing Business 2018 report to offer an overview of the risk environment for the MENA region.In bringing together data from these two World Economic Forum publications,the paper presents a“glocal”perspective a perspective that includes both global and local assessments.The combination of these outlooks is necessary at a time of immense risk complexity:risks are not only intersecting one another,they are also spanning national and regional boundaries.Yet,despite the need for coordinated effort among parties to address these challenges,divisions are taking hold at national,regional and global levels,making risk mitigation more challenging.A note on the surveys used in this briefing paperTwo separate surveys designed by the World Economic Forum are used to inform this briefing paper:the Global Risks Perception Survey,which polls the Forums multi-stakeholder community of experts,policy-makers,and members of the private sector and NGO community about global risks,and the Executive Opinion Survey,which polls business leaders and includes a question about risks to doing business in their respective countries.Additional details of the two surveys may be found in the methodology section at the end of this paper.The paper opens with an examination of the primary risks to the global community,as identified by the Forums Global Risks Perception Survey(found in the Global Risks Report 2019),with a focus on the implication of these for the MENA region.The paper then explores risks to the region economic,governance and security hazards as identified by the Forums Executive Opinion Survey(found in the Regional Risks for Doing Business 2018 report).The paper concludes with country-level data on risks to the region.Heavy fog in the morning near the Dubai Marina(REUTERS/Steve Crisp).5The Middle East and North Africa Risks LandscapeThe Global and Regional Risks LandscapeGrowing geo-economic division across the globeGlobal risks are intensifying but the collective will to tackle them appears lacking.1 There has been divergence among states and stakeholders when it comes to taking coordinated steps towards addressing common risks.The idea of“taking back control”whether domestically from political rivals or externally from multilateral or supranational organizations resonates across many countries and many issues.Against this backdrop it is likely to become more difficult to make progress on key,collective challenges,from strengthening the global economy to protecting the environment to addressing the challenges of cyber risks.Because todays risks are complex,multifaceted and often interconnected,a go-at-it-alone approach will be ineffective in reducing risks and building necessary resiliency.The cracks in cooperation raise the question:if another global crisis were to hit,would the necessary levels of cooperation and support be forthcoming?Geo-economic tensions across the globe ratcheted up during 2018.Respondents to the Global Risks Perception Survey were concerned in the short term about the deteriorating international economic environment,with the vast majority expecting increasing risks in 2019 related to“economic confrontations between major powers”(91%)and“erosion of multilateral trading rules and agreements”(88%).Geo-economic divisions come as the rate of global growth appears to have peaked.The International Monetary Fund(IMF)forecasts a gradual slowdown over the next few years.2 This is mainly the result of developments in advanced economies,but projections of a slowdown Figure 1:Short-Term Risk Outlook Percentage of Respondents Expecting Risks to Increase in 2019Economic confrontations/frictions between major powersErosion of multilateral trading rules and agreementsPolitical confrontations/frictions between major powersCyber-attacks:Theft of data/moneyCyber-attacks:disruption of operations and infrastructure9188858280Source:World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 20182019.(Adapted from Global Risks Report 2019)6The Middle East and North Africa Risks Landscapein China from 6.6%growth in 2018 to 6.2%this year and 5.8%by 2022 are a source of concern.So,too,is the global debt burden,which is significantly higher than before the global financial crisis,at around 225%of GDP.In addition,a tightening of global financial conditions has placed strain on countries that built up dollar-denominated liabilities while interest rates were low.As the global economy faces some headwinds,cross-border trade long seen as a means of mitigating geopolitical risk by embedding powers in mutually beneficial relationships is now frequently seen as a tool of strategic competition.The potential costs of deepening trade tensions were highlighted in January 2019 when the IMF cited trade disputes as one reason for revising down its global growth projections for the second time in three months.3 These developments hold risk for the MENA region,home to trade-dependent economies,where,according to the IMF,total trade-to-GDP ratio amounts to approximately 66%.4 Eighty-five percent of respondents to the Global Risks Perception Survey expect“political confrontations/frictions between major powers”to increase in 2019.These rising geopolitical divisions are making it more challenging to address the biggest global risk climate change.Environmental risks dominate the results of the Global Risks Perception Survey for the third year in a row.This year,climate-related issues accounted for three of the top five risks by likelihood and four by impact over the next 10 years.Extreme weather was the risk of greatest concern,but survey respondents were increasingly worried about environmental policy failure.“Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation”ranked as number two in terms of impact this year.Figure 2:Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood (Next 10 Years)Source:World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 20182019.(Adapted from Global Risks Report 2019)Extreme weathereventsNatural disastersData fraud or theft Cyber-attacksExtreme weather eventsMajor natural disastersLarge-scale terrorist attacksMassive incident of data fraud/theftLarge-scale involuntary migrationExtreme weather eventsCyber-attacksData fraud or theftNatural disastersFailure of climate-changemitigation and adaptationFailure of climate-changemitigation and adaptation201720171st2nd3rd4th5th2018201820192019SocietalGeopoliticalEnvironmentalTechnologicalFigure 3:Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact (Next 10 Years)Weapons of mass destructionFailure of climate-changemitigation and adaptationExtreme weather events Water crises Natural disastersWeapons of mass destructionExtreme weather eventsWater crisesMajor natural disastersWeapons of mass destructionExtreme weather eventsWater crises Natural disastersFailure of climate-changemitigation and adaptationFailure of climate-changemitigation and adaptationThe risks of climate change and cracks in the global response7The Middle East and North Africa Risks LandscapeAn aerial view of Wadi Rum,Jordan(REUTERS/Ali Jarekji).The results of climate inaction are becoming increasingly clear.The year 2018 was the fourth warmest on record.5 In the MENA region,Algeria had the hottest temperature 51.3C ever reliably recorded across the whole of Africa and Oman recorded a minimum temperature of 42.6C.6 Rising temperatures led the UN to warn that melting ice sheets were causing sea-level rise to accelerate.The World Bank identified 24 port cities in the Middle East and 19 in North Africa at particular risk of rising waters.7 Climate change will also bring a second-order risk for the region.As countries around the world take steps to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels to stem the effects of climate change,the oil-based economies of the MENA region will feel the repercussions.Yet,in stark contrast to the results of the Global Risks Perception Survey respondents to which are the global stakeholder community respondents in the Middle East and North Africa to the Executive Opinion Survey did not rank environmental issues high on the list of risks in the region.The lack of prioritizing climate change points to a blind spot among stakeholders when it comes to considering the risks of the issue to the region.Technology plays a profound role in shaping the global risks landscape in the near and longer term.Concerns about data fraud and cyberattacks were prominent again in the Global Risks Perception Survey,with 82%of respondents expecting cyberattacks in the form of theft of data or money and 80%expecting it in the form of disruptions of operations or infrastructure to increase in 2019.Similarly,“data fraud or theft”and“cyberattacks”ranked as the fourth and fifth risks,respectively,in terms of likelihood over the next decade.Indeed,there were further data breaches in 2018,new hardware weaknesses were revealed,and research pointed to the potential uses of artificial intelligence to engineer more potent cyberattacks.Last year also provided further evidence that cyberattacks pose risks to critical infrastructure,prompting countries to strengthen their screening of cross-border partnerships on national security grounds.According to Cisco,94%of companies in MENA said they experienced a cyberattack in the past year and almost half of attacks,48%,resulted in damage valued at over$500,000.8 The rise in the flow of data across borders means that these types of risks are only expected to increase.Global technological threats8The Middle East and North Africa Risks LandscapeExogenous factors,such as geo-economic division,climate change and technological threats all pose a particular risk to MENA,but so,too,do hazards that are more regional in nature.According to respondents in the Middle East and North Africa to the Executive Opinion Survey,the top two risks across the region for doing business are“energy price shock”and“unemployment or underemployment”.These risks are largely economic in nature and affected by the health of governance in the region.Similarly,the number five risk,(“fiscal crises”),the number seven risk(“unmanageable inflation”)and the number 10 risk(“failure of financial mechanism or institution”)follow the same pattern of being largely economic in nature and potentially governance-driven.The top risk,“energy price shock”,comes at a time when some countries have taken steps towards diversification,but the region is still largely a hydrocarbon economy,heavily reliant on revenue from this sector.Oil prices increased substantially between 2017 and 2018,from around$50 to$75.This represents a significant fillip for the fiscal position of the regions oil producers,with the IMF estimating that each$10 increase in oil prices should feed through to an improvement on the fiscal balance of three percentage points of GDP.However,vulnerabilities to swings in oil prices have not disappeared and are particularly pronounced in countries where government spending is rising.This group includes Saudi Arabia,which the IMF estimated in May 2018 had seen its fiscal breakeven price for oil that is,the price required to balance the national budget rise to$88,26%above the IMFs October 2017 estimate and also higher than the countrys medium-term oil price target of$70$80.It is no surprise,then,that Saudi Arabia remains one of five Figure 4:Top Ten Risks in MENA1 Energy price shock2 Unemployment or underemployment3 Terrorist attacks4 Failure of regional and global governance5 Fiscal crises6 Cyber-attacks7 Unmanageable inflation8 Water-crises9 Illicit trade10 Failure of financial mechanism or institutionSource:World Economic Forum,Regional Risks for Doing Business 2018Economic and governance risks to the MENA region9The Middle East and North Africa Risks Landscape“Terrorist attacks”ranked as the third-leading risk in the Middle East and North Africa,according to respondents in the region to the Executive Opinion Survey.Similar to economic and governance issues,this risk is one that For stakeholders across the globe,risk mitigation and resiliency can be heightened through a coordinated rather than go-at-it-alone approach.Preventing the harms of climate change from being realized or,responding to effects in an effective manner when they manifest for instance,is only possible through cross-sector and cross-border partnerships.Similarly,strengthening economic structures and governing institutions in the MENA region can best be achieved through a multistakeholder approach that leverages diverse resources,including skills and expertise,and aligns actors towards a common goal.A risk,or perception,of insecurity in the MENA regionTowards risk mitigation and resiliencycountries in the region that rank“energy price shock”as the top risk to doing business in our survey,along with Bahrain,Kuwait,Oman and Qatar.The risk of an episodic energy price shock signals a broader,systemic risk for the region.Unless MENA economies diversify,business and society will not only be hostage to oil market fluctuation in the short term but also will be ill-prepared t