世界经济论坛-第四次工业革命技术以提高竞争力和可持续增长（英文）-2019.1-29页.pdf

White PaperShaping the Sustainability of Production Systems:Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies for competitiveness and sustainable growthJanuary 2019In collaboration with Accenture StrategyWorld Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744Email:contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.org 2019 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Shaping the Sustainability of Production Systems:Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies for competitiveness and sustainable growthContentsForeword 5Executive Summary 6Chapter 1:Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainable Growth 8Chapter 2:The Value Opportunity of Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies in Andhra Pradesh,India 10Chapter 3:The Value Opportunity of Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies in Michigan,USA 14Chapter 4:Conclusion and Next Steps 17Appendices 18Contributors 25Endnotes 264Shaping the Sustainability of Production Systems:Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies for competitiveness and sustainable growth5Shaping the Sustainability of Production Systems:Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies for competitiveness and sustainable growthForewordThe future of manufacturing is at an inflection point.Consumers are demanding personalized products and services,instantly fulfilled.Industry incumbents are racing to adjust to this new generation of customers by building new networks of partners and digitalizing operations all while agile new entrants carve out and capture market share.Meanwhile,global temperatures are rising,demand for resources continues to outpace the Earths ability to replenish them,and with the industry and manufacturing sectors accounting for 41%of global gross domestic product(GDP),1 the production sectors are positioned directly at the nexus of economic impact and resource usage.Tomorrows manufacturers wont be able to operate with the same resource intensity as past generations,and so now,more than ever,we must find ways to remain competitive and sustainable.By harnessing the combinatorial power of digital,physical and biological technologies,however,the Fourth Industrial Revolution(4IR)presents a way for manufacturing to increase its competitiveness and contribution to regional economies,while at the same time helping to deliver on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.This White Paper quantifies how.It examines the potential impact of 4IR technologies on production systems in two of the worlds manufacturing hubs and looks at technologies that can help manufacturers access new levels of efficiency as well as enabling more sustainable business models.In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh,we identified six 4IR technologies that could unlock an additional$5 billion a year of sustainable value for its fast-growing electronics and automotive manufacturers by 2022.In the US state of Michigan,there are four such technologies with the potential to add$7 billion annually to its automotive sector.Our analysis is presented as a showcase not only of the regions we have chosen but also of the positive impact potential of 4IR technologies for manufacturing hubs around the world.We hope it will serve as a template for business and government leaders everywhere to increase competitiveness and sustainability.In doing so,we hope to illustrate that not only is there no tension between the two,but that sustainability may actually be an amplifier of competitiveness.The World Economic Forums Regional Platforms for Sustainable Manufacturing will offer on-the-ground support to leaders as they seek the new collaborations that will turn the ideas in this report into action.Together,we believe the paper and these platforms can help manufacturers and governments across the globe rise to the challenge and accelerate progress towards a new era of sustainable production.Omar Abbosh,Group Chief Executive,Communications,Media and Technology,Accenture,United KingdomHelena Leurent,Head,System Initiative on Shaping the Future of Advanced Manufacturing and Production,Member of the Executive Committee,World Economic Forum6Shaping the Sustainability of Production Systems:Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies for competitiveness and sustainable growthExecutive SummaryManufacturing is crucial for global economic growth.However,the manufacturing industry is facing unprecedented challenges that must be addressed by companies and governments if it is to succeed:the need to create hyper-personalized experiences and products,to deliver at a lower cost and higher efficiency or to implement new business models and sources of growth that build trust among consumers.In order to keep up,companies need to embrace the Fourth Industrial Revolution and become disruptors themselves.Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies allow companies to position manufacturing as a source of competitive advantage while contributing to the fulfilment of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).To show how such technologies can enable new business models that unlock sustainable business value for manufacturers around the world,the project identified three distinct global production hubs for analysis:Andhra Pradesh(India),Michigan(USA)and Guangdong(China).Having completed our studies of Andhra Pradesh and Michigan,the outcomes show that 4IR technologies can drive competitiveness and significant economic growth in both regions,while simultaneously increasing sustainability.Value opportunity in Andhra PradeshAcross the electronics and automotive manufacturing sectors in this east Indian state,there are six 4IR technologies that present a cumulative,sustainable value opportunity of$5 billion annually by 2022.For the electronics industry,advanced electronic design automation(AEDA),3D printing and digital traceability of materials are the technologies with the highest potential to boost competitiveness while accelerating the realization of the SDGs.By 2022,the states electronics industry could gain more than$1 billion by implementing AEDA,over$630 million in value through 3D-printed electronics and$127 million through blockchain-enabled traceability of minerals.In the automotive industry,an augmented workforce could generate additional value of$1.5 billion in 2022,via improved product throughput and enhanced labour practices,whereas cobotics and bio-based plastics could have a commercial impact of$1.4 billion and$424 million respectively.But these technologies may also have a positive impact on society and the environment by upskilling the workforce,reducing CO2 emissions and increasing safety in the workplace.The government of Andhra Pradesh is now exploring the creation of a Regional Platform for Sustainable Production to capture those opportunities and ensure the long-term impact and scaled implementation of these technologies.Value opportunity in MichiganMichigan is the birthplace of the modern automotive industry,which remains the US states leading manufacturing sector.The project in Michigan focused on the automotive industry:The implementation of four select technologies in this sector could generate an additional value opportunity of over$7 billion annually by 2022 in the state.An augmented workforce could have a commercial impact of$2.6 billion in additional revenue due to increased output using AR/VR and AR/VR training.Cobotics could generate additional value of over$2.1 billion due to additional output as well as reduce safety incidences.Digital twins and metal 3D printing could represent an economic opportunity of$1.4 billion and$800 million in 2022 respectively and contribute towards the reduction of CO2 emissions as well as increasing safety in the workplace.The World Economic Forum is currently collaborating with Automation Alley,a nonprofit manufacturing and technology business association,to create a manufacturing roadmap that may serve to support the policy and business agendas of leaders across the state.Value opportunity in GuangdongChinas largest province has become a hub for local and international manufacturers from a number of industries.The Accelerating Sustainable Production project is now quantifying the potential impact of 4IR technologies on the regions electronics and automotive production systems.The way forwardThe Fourth Industrial Revolution presents a unique opportunity to inspire innovation in advanced manufacturing while increasing companies competitiveness and contributing to the fulfilment of the UNs 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.From the interviews,workshops and research over the past year,the project has identified some common success factors to ensure competitiveness and sustainable growth.Leaders must take a long-term strategic outlook that extends beyond the immediate investment opportunity and collaboration.A network of partners will be vital to allow manufacturers to innovate and adopt new approaches to manufacturing.Finally,following a human-centred approach,where Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies enhance the human role and encourage collaboration between human and machine,will allow companies to position themselves for sustained,long-term success.The deep dives in Andhra Pradesh,Michigan and 7Shaping the Sustainability of Production Systems:Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies for competitiveness and sustainable growthGuangdong can help consolidate action in the regions in focus,but the ideas and findings within them have wider applications.By proving the business value of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies,they can guide manufacturers around the world as they seek to channel 4IR-driven innovation into their own production systems at speed and scale.New mechanisms that encourage public-private cooperation are needed,delivering long-term engagement at scale.The implementation of Regional Platforms for Sustainable Production could facilitate the adoption of 4IR technologies in selected areas by bringing key stakeholders together to exchange knowledge and launch new public-private partnerships.The platforms would be integrated in a Global Centre for Sustainable Production that would provide further strategic guidance,encouraging innovative action that makes manufacturers more competitive and manufacturing more sustainable.The projects next step is to drive on-the-ground action and facilitate the implementation of 4IR technologies for competitiveness and sustainable growth.8Shaping the Sustainability of Production Systems:Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies for competitiveness and sustainable growthManufacturing makes a critical contribution to the global economy.The latest World Bank figures put its share of global GDP at 15.6%(value added).2 However,its environmental footprint is also significant:Manufacturers account for 54%of global energy use and are responsible for 20%of all greenhouse gas emissions.3Late last year,the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a landmark report that called for urgent and unprecedented action to restrict global warming to 1.5C and thus limit its potentially catastrophic impact.4 But this is not the only imperative facing manufacturers.Their business status quo has been disrupted,too.At the same time as consumers are demanding hyper-personalized products,economic pressures are forcing manufacturing incumbents to reduce costs and new competition has also emerged.Start-up businesses,shorn of unwieldy legacy systems,are taking a digital-first,software-led approach that allows them to innovate faster and keep pace with the dizzying rate of technological change that defines the Fourth Industrial Revolution.If incumbents are going to keep up,they must embrace the Fourth Industrial Revolution and become disruptors themselves.Pioneering manufacturers are innovating the way that products are designed,manufactured and serviced and building new organizational capabilities that reposition manufacturing as a source of competitive advantage.Integrating sustainability into this pivot towards the Fourth Industrial Revolution unlocks new growth,increases profitability and builds stakeholder trust.New growth with new business models:By developing new 4IR-enabled capabilities around the sustainable design,manufacture and servicing of products,manufacturers can grow revenues by accessing new markets and customers with new business models.Circular economy business models,such as“product life extension”and“product as a service”can help manufacturers tap into a$4.5 trillion global economic opportunity but require new technologies and processes.5 For example,Caterpillars remanufacturing programme returns components at end-of-life to same-as-new condition,reducing carbon,waste and raw material inputs.Otherwise unusable parts are brought back to the latest performance specifications,a crucial differentiator in the sector,for which Caterpillar has developed a unique set of world-class salvage techniques.With profit margins on the sale of remanufactured goods as high as 40%,6 it makes commercial sense as well.New growth with closer customer relationships:Sustainable manufacturing can be the driver that transforms traditional organizations into agile providers of smart products and services that connect manufacturers to their customers and supply chains,building closer relationships and more personalized product experiences.One example is HPs Instant Ink service,which detects when a printers cartridge needs to be replaced,automatically ships a replacement and facilitates the return of the empty cartridge and reprocesses it in its advanced facilities.The solution cuts the carbon footprint of the inks purchase and return process by 84%and reduces material consumption by 57%,while offering customers a convenient and cost-effective solution.The key here is being able to access product use-phase data,which can then be fed back into the design of production systems and the product portfolio.Increasing profitability:Leading CEOs are quantifying how sustainability generates tangible value down to bottom-line profit and loss(P&L),taking action to reduce waste and energy consumption while increasing labour and operational efficiency.For example,Maserati has digitalized manufacturing operations at its Giovanni Agnelli plant near Turin,Italy.Partnering with Siemens,it created a digital twin of the Maserati Ghibli that allows real-time data-sharing between the real and virtual model.This helped Maserati decrease costs and reduce development time by 30%.7Apples disassembly robot Daisy separates iPhones into discrete parts that can be reprocessed by its partners.At full capacity,Daisy can disassemble 200 iPhones an hour,removing and sorting components so that Apple can recover materials that traditional recyclers cannot and at a higher qualit