世界经济论坛-第四次工业革命的制造业新时代：在密歇根州发现了70亿美元的可能性（英文）-2019.5-24页.pdf

White PaperA New Era of Manufacturing in the Fourth Industrial Revolution:$7 Billion of Possibilities Uncovered in MichiganApril 2019In collaboration with Accenture Strategy and Automation AlleyWorld Economic Forum9193 route de la CapiteCH1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744Email:contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.org 2019 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.This white paper has been published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum,but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.3A New Era of Manufacturing in the Fourth Industrial Revolution:$7 Billion of Possibilities Uncovered in MichiganContentsForeword 5Executive summary 6Chapter 1:The future of the automotive sector and industrial context in Michigan 7Chapter 2:Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies to drive competitiveness and sustainable growth in automotive manufacturing in Michigan 9Chapter 3:The value opportunity of the Fourth Industrial Revolution for Michigans automotive sector 11Chapter 4:The path forward 13Chapter 5:Conclusion 14Appendices 15Appendix 1.Scope,methodology and terms 15Scope of the study 15Local working group 16Methodology 16Appendix 2.Important terms and definitions 19Appendix 3:Working group(convened in collaboration with Accenture and Automation Alley)19Acknowledgements 20Endnotes 214A New Era of Manufacturing in the Fourth Industrial Revolution:$7 Billion of Possibilities Uncovered in Michigan5A New Era of Manufacturing in the Fourth Industrial Revolution:$7 Billion of Possibilities Uncovered in MichiganForewordManufacturing has long been a pillar of economic prosperity.Today,with the rapid pace of technological advancement,industry dynamics are changing.Manufacturers are navigating an evolving competitive landscape as agile new players enter the market and disrupt traditional supply chains.In parallel,consumers are changing in the digital age,demanding personalized products and services.Meanwhile,increased resource constraints are placing added pressure on manufacturers to innovate to remain competitive and achieve sustainable growth.Throughout the ages,industrial revolutions have disrupted manufacturing systems by introducing new methods of production.A new era of manufacturing is emerging in which the digital,physical and biological technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution present an unprecedented opportunity to transform the manufacturing industry,simultaneously driving profitability and sustainability.These goals are no longer mutually exclusive Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies can both result in enhanced competitiveness and have a positive impact on the Sustainable Development Goals.Recent years have seen Michigans economy grow consistently,with its manufacturing industry a main driver of this economic prosperity.The automotive sector has long been a cornerstone of Michigans economy,and to date remains the largest sector in its manufacturing industry.Given Michigans history of innovation in manufacturing,the state is wellpositioned to reap the benefits of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and lead the way for the future of production globally.This White Paper identifies the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies with the greatest potential to affect Michigans production systems while delivering an annual opportunity worth$7 billion to the state by driving competitiveness and creating sustainable growth in its automotive sector.But the automotive industrys$7 billion case is just the beginning for Michigan.As more industries adopt these technologies,the potential valueadd to the state will only grow.Here,we outline a way forward to transition this potential into a reality for the people of Michigan.The studys findings are intended to inspire multistakeholder collaborations that seize the opportunity presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution,and drive ontheground action in accelerating the shift to more competitive and sustainable production systems.Jeremy Jurgens,Managing Director,Head of Centre for Global Industries and Strategic Intelligence,World Economic ForumOmar Abbosh,Group Chief Executive,Communications,Media and Technology,Accenture Thomas Kelly,Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer,Automation Alley6A New Era of Manufacturing in the Fourth Industrial Revolution:$7 Billion of Possibilities Uncovered in MichiganExecutive summaryManufacturing makes a critical contribution to the global economy(15.6%of global GDP);1 however,its environmental footprint is also significant.The Accelerating Sustainable Production project builds collaborations between governments and businesses to drive the competitiveness of their production systems and achieve sustainable growth by implementing Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies.The first phase of the project identified 40 Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies with the potential to transform four manufacturing industries(electronics;automotive;food and beverage;textiles,apparel and footwear).The second,and current,phase brings the global insights and findings to the regional level in order to identify opportunities and areas for progress.The first regional study focused on the state of Andhra Pradesh,India,while this study examines the US state of Michigan,with a particular focus on its automotive sector.Interviews with industry experts and secondary research established the industrial context for this sector.The Accelerating Sustainable Production framework was then used to identify the most significant emerging technologies for Michigans automotive sector and quantify the potential value that each technology can add to the economy,society and environment in the state.Finally,these benefits were mapped to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).Value opportunity for the automotive sector in MichiganTargeted implementation of the primary Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies can deliver more than$7 billion in annual value by 2022 to Michigans automotive sector,increasing the states competitiveness and positively affecting SDGs 3,8,12 and 13,among others.Augmented workforces account for$2.6 billion of that value by increasing worker productivity,reducing training costs and streamlining the product design process.Augmented workforces can help bridge Michigans growing skills gap and create more than 7,000 jobs in the process.Cobots(collaborative robots)bring$2.1 billion in value by improving workforce productivity and introducing efficiencies to the factory floor.Cobots can handle the“dirty,dull and dangerous”work,reducing accidents in the workplace and freeing up workers to focus on innovation.Improved safety can save an estimated 7,900 workerdays for Michigans manufacturers.Cobots can diminish the labour cost advantage of many emerging economies,which may help bring some manufacturing jobs back to the US.The onshoring of manufacturing could create 7,300 jobs in 2022.Smart digital twin technology(the creation of digital replicas of physical assets)presents an annual opportunity of$1.4 billion through increased operational efficiencies and optimized production processes.By running virtual simulations in real time,smart digital twins can enable predictive asset maintenance,allowing manufacturers to identify issues and minimize unscheduled downtime.Smart digital twins can also improve product development and design processes,and create new revenue streams for manufacturers through premiums on cars sold with digitaltwinenabled maintenance services.Metal 3D printing adds an opportunity for$800 million to the states automotive sector by reducing material costs,inventory costs and transportation costs.Metal 3D printing enables decentralized manufacturing,where products can be printed on demand,closer to where they are needed;3D printing also produces lighter components,allowing for vehicle lightweighting that improves fuel efficiency and reduces CO2 emissions by 370,000 tons.Through mass customization,metal 3D printing can create new revenue opportunities from premiums charged on personalized vehicles.The way forwardFourth Industrial Revolution innovations can provide Michigans manufacturers with a significant competitive advantage,position the state as the global leader for advanced manufacturing and ensure Michigan is prepared for the rapid innovations transforming its industries.These technologies can deliver economic growth while simultaneously benefitting society and the environment.To accelerate the implementation of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies,however,Michigan must establish a multistakeholder collaborative ecosystem in the state.Such collaborations can operate in precompetitive spaces to instigate ecosystemlevel changes that no single company could do alone.Bold leadership is required to take a longterm view in strengthening Michigan and its companies market positions if they are to remain industry leaders.Without a clear strategic vision of what the future looks like and how to get there,organizations will fail to unlock the full value potential of these technologies.Through the creation of a new Advanced Manufacturing Platform(AMP),hosted by Automation Alley Michigans Industry 4.0 knowledge centre and connected globally through the World Economic Forum,Michigan has the opportunity to separate itself from the pack as the global leader for advanced manufacturing and ensure the state is prepared for the rapid innovations transforming its industries.This multistakeholder platform will encourage and accelerate the implementation of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies in Michigan while developing the workforce of the future.This platform has the potential to have an impact on existing publicprivate partnerships,drive the competitive advantage of individual companies and simultaneously position Michigan as a beacon of innovation and methodology for advanced manufacturing across the globe.7A New Era of Manufacturing in the Fourth Industrial Revolution:$7 Billion of Possibilities Uncovered in MichiganChapter 1:The future of the automotive sector and industrial context in MichiganMichigan is now booming following a remarkable comeback from the financial crisis of 200708.The Great Lakes state ranks first for job creation in the Midwest region and is the USs seventh fastest growing economy,with unemployment falling to record lows.2 The manufacturing industry is a major driver of Michigans economy.Manufacturers in Michigan account for 19%of the states total output,employing 14%of the workforce.3 Michigan ranks first in the nation in hightech manufacturing employment and has created the most manufacturing jobs in the country since 2010.Manufacturing has the largest multiplier effect on people and businesses of any industry economy in the US.Every$1 spent in manufacturing generates$1.81 in additional economic activity,and for every worker in manufacturing,four employees are hired elsewhere.4Michigan is the birthplace of the modern automotive industry.It is where Henry Ford innovated modern massproduction techniques,including the first moving assembly line in the early 20th century.Today,the automotive industry is Michigans leading manufacturing sector,making up more than 40%of the states total manufacturing output.5 Home to 20%of US car manufacturing jobs,6 Michigan currently manufactures more cars and trucks than any other state,representing 23%of total US automotive production7 with more than 2 million vehicles produced each year.8 While the states economy and manufacturing system are recovering after the economic crisis,sustainability has become a growing concern.Some 67%of respondents of the Healthy PeopleHealthy Planet Poll,led by Michigan State Universitys Health and Risk Communication Center,said the environment should take priority,even at the risk of curbing economic growth.9 The state ranks 10th in the 50 US states in terms of total CO2 emissions.10 No state has more water coverage(by percentage of total area)than Michigan.However,the state has faced several sustainability crises that required urgent action from the public sector.Trends in the automotive industryThe automotive industry is now facing unprecedented disruption.Technological advances in both manufacturing and mobility are transforming the automotive landscape,requiring new and incumbent players alike to innovate rapidly to remain competitive.Important trends affecting how automotive companies operate include the changing expectations of digital consumers,the emergence of smart manufacturing enabled by the industrial internet of things(IIoT)and data analytics,the rise of connected and autonomous vehicles(CAVs),and sustainability.These trends are fundamentally changing the way vehicles are produced,with a car becoming a connected asset that has its own digital environment.Automotive companies need to transform into,and collaborate with,technology companies to remain competitive as they produce the next generation of vehicles.Consumers are also rapidly evolving,and organizations must learn to adapt quickly to stay relevant.Consumers dont just want to buy a product;they are looking for a complete usercentric experience.As such,successful firms must shift from selling products to providing services and experiences.Consumers increasingly expect personalized interactions,and,through the sharing economy,are substituting ownership for access.The IIoT is proving to be the most transformative force for manufacturers across all sectors.Combined with the power of data analytics,IIoT can enable the application of other technologies,giving manufacturers unprecedented visibility of operations and driving efficiencies while enabling new business models.The impact of autonomous vehicle technology has the potential to revolutionize the way people move and travel.Autonomous vehicles will grant almost everyone access to mobility including seniors and people with mental,physical or visual impairments whose access is limited by current technology.While widespread commercialization of selfdriving cars is years away,manufacturers across the value chain understand its huge value potential and are increasingly pursuing initiatives and forging partnerships to make it a reality.Sustainability has become a prime concern for manufacturers and vehicle users.Producing a car is a resourceintensive process.Vehicle production involves a significant volume of materials with an average of 900 kilograms(1,984 pounds)of steel11 and 350 kilograms(772 pounds)of plastic per vehicle.1