世界银行-2003年后伊拉克重建：从成功与失败中学习（地缘政治）（英文）-2019.5-137页.pdf

35M E N A D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R THideki MatsunagaThe Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003Learning from Its Successes and FailuresThe Reconstruction of Iraq after 20039 0 0 0 09 781464 813900SKU 211390ISBN 978-1-4648-1390-0Beginning in 2003,diverse and significant actors,both domestic and international,engaged in reconstruction activities in Iraq.The total budget committed to Iraqs reconstruction was unprecedented among postconflict operations mobilized by the international community.Despite the vast sums of money spent,and the implementation of its many projects and programs,the donors and the Iraqi people view the reconstruction efforts in Iraq in a negative light.The Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003:Learning from Its Successes and Failures focuses on the period between 2003 and 2014that is,after the United Statesled invasion and overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime,and before the sudden rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant(ISIL),also known as Daesh.This book assesses several dimensions of Iraqs reconstruction.First,it considers the response of key international actors,such as the United Nations,the World Bank,the United States,and other bilateral donorsspecifically,the European Union,Japan,and the United Kingdomas well as nongovernmental organizations.Second,it analyzes the process and results of the reconstruction of key sectors(electricity,oil,education,and health),and the interventions geared to institution building and governance reform.Pursuing effective reconstruction within the context of conflict and fra gility is a formidable challenge because of the uncertain,fluid,and complex environment.Based on the experience in Iraq,how can the international community support the effectiveness and durability of reconstruction?This book identifies lessons in seven areas and offers four recommendations for international and domestic actors and citizens engaged in recon struction activities.The Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003 is important reading for development practitioners and policy makers who are or will be engaged in reconstruction efforts in fragile and conflict-affected environments.The Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003The Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003Learning from Its Successes and FailuresMENA DEVELOPMENT REPORTHideki Matsunaga 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpre-tations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:Matsunaga,Hideki.2019.The Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003:Learning from Its Successes and Failures.MENA Development Report Series.Washington,DC:World Bank.doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1390-0.License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adap-tation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned indi-vidual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN(paper):978-1-4648-1390-0ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-1391-7DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1390-0Cover photo:iS with permission.Further permission required for reuse.Cover design:Bill Pragluski,Critical Stages LLCLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied forMENA Development Report Series This series features major development reports from the Middle East and North Africa region of the World Bank,based on new research and thoroughly peer-reviewed analysis.Each report aims to enrich the debate on the main development challenges and opportunities the region faces as it strives to meet the evolving needs of its people.Titles in the MENA Development Report SeriesThe Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003:Learning from Its Successes and Failures(2019)by Hideki MatsunagaBeyond Scarcity:Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa(2018)by World BankJobs or Privileges:Unleashing the Employment Potential of the Middle East and North Africa(2015)by Marc Schiffbauer,Abdoulaye Sy,Sahar Hussain,Hania Sahnoun,and Philip KeeferThe Road Traveled:Dubais Journey towards Improving Private Education:A World Bank Review(2014)by Simon Thacker and Ernesto CuadraInclusion and Resilience:The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa(2013)by Joana Silva,Victoria Levin,and Matteo MorgandiOpening Doors:Gender Equality and Development in the Middle East and North Africa(2013)by World BankFrom Political to Economic Awakening in the Arab World:The Path of Economic Integration(2013)by Jean-Pierre ChauffourAdaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries:A Case for Adaptation Governance and Leadership in Building Climate Resilience(2012)by Dorte VernerRenewable Energy Desalination:An Emerging Solution to Close the Water Gap in the Middle East and North Africa(2012)by World BankPoor Places,Thriving People:How the Middle East and North Africa Can Rise Above Spatial Disparities(2011)by World BankFinancial Access and Stability:A Road Map for the Middle East and North Africa(2011)by Roberto R.Rocha,Zsofia Arvai,and Subika FaraziFrom Privilege to Competition:Unlocking Private-Led Growth in the Middle East and North Africa(2009)by World BankThe Road Not Traveled:Education Reform in the Middle East and North Africa(2008)by World BankMaking the Most of Scarcity:Accountability for Better Water Management Results in the Middle East and North Africa(2007)by World BankGender and Development in the Middle East and North Africa:Women in the Public Sphere(2004)by World BankUnlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa:Toward a New Social Contract(2004)by World BankBetter Governance for Development in the Middle East and North Africa:Enhancing Inclusiveness and Accountability(2003)by World BankTrade,Investment,and Development in the Middle East and North Africa:Engaging with the World(2003)by World BankAll books in the MENA Development Report series are available for free at https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2168.viiContentsAcknowledgments xiAbbreviations xiiiOverview 1The Context for Iraqs Reconstruction 2The International Response to Iraqs Reconstruction Needs 4Reconstructions Impact on Iraqs Economy and Job Creation 5The Reconstruction of Infrastructure,Human Capital,and Social Services 7Governance,Institutional Reform,and Private Sector Development 9Lessons for International Donors and Organizations 10Recommendations for Future Reconstruction 16Methodology 18References 181 Reconstruction Challenges in Iraq 19Introduction 19Security 20Institutions 21The Economy 24Annex 1A:Phases of Iraqi Reconstruction,March 2003 to June 2014 30Notes 33References 332 International Engagement in theReconstruction of Iraq 35Overview of International Actors 35Key Actors in the International Response 38Challenges to the International Response 48viii The Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003Notes 54References 553 The Reconstruction of Iraqi Infrastructure and Human Capital 57The Electricity Sector 57The Oil Sector 63The Education Sector 67The Health Sector 71Notes 74References 754 Institution Building,Governance Reform,and Private Sector Development 77Capacity Development and Institution Building 77Governance Reform:Decentralization and Local Governance 81Governance Reform:Tackling Corruption 84Private Sector Development 87Annex 4A:Disputes over Decentralization in Iraq 90Notes 91References 925 Lessons Learned from the Reconstruction of Iraq 95Working with National Institutions and Cultivating National Ownership 95Effective Implementation in Insecure Environments 97Improving the Effectiveness of Donor Funding for Reconstruction 99Enhancing Accountability in Reconstruction 102Improving the Assessment Process and Prioritization 104Donor Coordination with National Institutions 106Procurement and Contracting 107Notes 110References 1106 Recommendations for Future Reconstruction Operations 113Reconstruction in Fragile and Conflict Settings:Uncertain,Fluid,and Complex 113Reinforcing National Success 114Balancing Time and Scale in Operations 116Promoting Private Sector Engagement in Fragile Settings 117MENA Development Report Series ixReinforcing the Security-Development Nexus 118The Future of Reconstruction in Fragile and Conflict Settings 118References 119Boxes2.1 The Oil-for-Food Programme 474.1 Institution Building in Iraq:The Fiscal Management Information System 80FiguresO.1 Documented Civilian Deaths from Violence in Iraq,January 2003 to February 2017 3O.2 Funding Sources for Iraq Reconstruction,200312 5O.3 GDP per Capita and Crude Oil Prices in Iraq,19702014 6O.4 Core Public Sector Employment in Iraq,200315 6O.5 Electricity Generation Capacity in Iraq,200214 7O.6 Electricity Supply from the National Grid in Iraq,2007,2011,and 2012 8O.7 Crude Oil Production in Iraq before and after International Private Sector Engagement,200315 91.1 Civilian Deaths from Violence in the Anbar,Baghdad,Basra,and Erbil Governorates of Iraq,200316 211.2 Oil Production and Exports in Iraq,19802014 251.3 GDP per Capita and Crude Oil Prices in Iraq,19702014 251.4 Government Revenue and Oil Price Fluctuations in Iraq,200315 261.5 Investment Budget Execution in Iraq,200513 271.6 Core Public Sector Employment in Iraq,200315 291.7 Average Composition of Public Expenditures in Iraq,200510 291A.1 Oil Production,Electricity Generation,and Iraqi Investment Expenditures,200213 322.1 Pledges Made at the International Donor Conference for Iraq Reconstruction,October 2003 362.2 Funding Sources for Iraq Reconstruction,200312 372.3 Allocation of the U.K.Budget for Iraqs Reconstruction,2003July 2004 422.4 Annual European Union Commitment for Development and Humanitarian Assistance to Iraq,200313 432.5 Allocation of Japanese Grant Assistance to Iraq,200309 432.6 Japanese Loan Assistance to Iraq,200613 442.7 Donor Coordination Mechanism Led by Iraqi Entities 493.1 Electricity Generation Capacity in Iraq,200214 58x The Reconstruction of Iraq after 20033.2 Electricity Generation in Iraq,Average for May 2003 to December 2005 593.3 Electricity Supply from the National Grid in Iraq,2007,2011,and 2012 623.4 Public Perceptions of Electricity Service Provision in Iraq,by Governorate,2011 633.5 Monthly Oil Production in Iraq,200305 643.6 Crude Oil Production in Iraq before and after International Oil Company Engagement,200315 663.7 Student Enrollment in Iraq,200513 703.8 Infant Mortality Rate versus Life Expectancy at Birth in the Middle East and North Africa,1980 and 2001 723.9 Health Expenditures per Capita in Iraq,200314 733.10 Public Perceptions of Health Care Services in Iraq,by Region,2011 745.1 Budget Execution in Iraq,200513 1005.2 The Dual Accountability Dilemma 1025.3 Estimated Breakdown of U.S.Reconstruction Contracts in Iraq 109Tables1.1 Public Perceptions of the Problems Facing Iraq,February 2004 282.1 Total Donor Contributions to the International Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq(IRFFI)362.2 U.S.Budget Appropriations for Iraq Reconstruction Efforts 382.3 Security and the Rule of Law,Cumulative U.S.Obligations as of September 30,2012 393.1 U.S.Budget Allocations for the Iraqi Oil Sector,as of September 30,2006 653.2 Contracts Awarded by Federal Authorities for Hydrocarbon Exploration and Development in Iraq 673.3 Types of Expenditures in the Education Budget in Iraq,200511 693.4 Structure and Organization of Education in Iraq 714.1 Major U.S.Agency for International Development Programs for the Economy and Governance in Iraq,200312 784.2 U.S.Agency for International Development Programs for National and Local Governance and Capacity Development in Iraq 82xiThis report was developed and managed by a team led by Hideki Matsunaga and comprised of Riad Houry and Natsuko Yukawa.Thamir Al Ghadhban and Joseph Saba served as external advisors to the team,and Shantayanan Devarajan provided valuable advice and guidance from the beginning of the research until the final draft.Hafez Ghanem and Saroj Kumar Jha chaired review meetings and helped us to consolidate diverse and valuable comments and to finalize the report.Neil OReilly provided substantial input and guidance on multiple versions of the draft.The report benefited at various stages from the guidance and com-ments of World Bank management and staff,including Asad Alam,Abdallah Al Dardari,Nazaneen Ismail Ali,Zainab A Allawi,Rabah Arezki,Raja Rehan Arshad,Lemya Izzet Ayub,Daniel Kiernan Balke,Ferid Belhaj,Franck Bousquet,Kevin Carey,Emmanuel F.Cuvillier,Ibrahim Dajani,Miguel Angel De Corral Martin,Thomas Djurhuus,Faizaa Fatima,Sepehr Fotovat,Abderrahim Fraiji,Katsumasa Hamaguchi,Ellen Hamilton,Syed Mehdi Hassan,Elena Ianchovichina,Robert Bou Jaou