食品饮料行业：白酒与大众品齐飞业绩与估值共舞-20190702-东北证券-30页 (2).pdf

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002732.SZ 16.90-0.62 601579.SH 8.89 0.00 000019.SZ 7.20 2.24 002650.SZ 3.81 5.83 002495.SZ 3.38 7.30 600429.SH 5.90 7.47 wind wind 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 7/30 1.2.201932376.95%1.41pct1.30pct2018 20191.99%2018 Wind 2018 2019%A%1.65 2.26 1.16 1.65 0.91 1.20 0.53 1.16 0.24 1.15 0.20 1.15 0.15 0.91 0.11 0.78 0.09 0.58 0.09 0.57%A%1.99 2.97 1.18 1.99 1.08 1.30 0.60 1.18 0.25 1.08 0.23 0.84 0.21 0.78 0.18 0.72 0.17 0.70 0.17 0.68 Wind Wind 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 8/30 2.2.1.2.1.1.201855011220186543.13358.28446.454.95%50.39 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 9/30 201815 2010-2018 358.2869.1943.13050100150200250300350400 -20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0102030405060201020112012201320142015201620172018 Wind Wind 2.1.2.55%2016GDP8%6300200637%201855%GDP 35%40%45%50%55%60%5,7005,8005,9006,0006,1006,2006,3006,4002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Wind Wind 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 10/30 10%20183.262018132211.80%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0%5%10%15%20%25%02004006008001,0001,2001,400201020112012201320142015201620172018 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000201320142015201620172018 Wind Wind 2000-200640-802007-201160-10020125680-12020152017590-15020188102-3200 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 11/30 0501001502002502000-20062007-20112012-20152016-20172018-Wind 2000-2006 5 40-80 2007-2011 5 60-100 2012-2015 5/6 80-120 2016-2017 5/6/5 90-150 2018 8/16/2610/20/30 200 2.1.3.2502021320 201825060%201825015%30-4030014060%3-4 20183439320143434620175143201352174 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 12/30 5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,0002006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00020132014201520162017 Wind Wind 100-150 60-120 55/6 200-300 80-200 55/6 200-400 M3 60-150 55/6 3320400300-50030%2018503.81/395.34/32021318.598.42%/2021 400 7939.5 503.81 250 6323.6 395.34 318.59 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 13/30 2.1.4.30080-300802030580-30040-8040 80-300 40-80 40 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 14/30 200 201823.86%14.24%3-5 2018 23.86%14.24%7.81%4.23%49.86%Wind 2.2.2.2.1.50/500 ml 600 1573 300-600 50-300 50 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 15/30 20122012201715%2012-2017-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Wind 20%202050201720166503020%20201200 -40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%201220132014201520162017 Wind 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 16/30 2.2.2.6.2%4.13%1.38%CR311.71%90%CR312%6.20%4.13%1.38%88.29%Wind 3.3.1.20135000euromonitor20174408.23.39%2017846.54.46%2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 17/30 2013 Euromonitor Euromonitor CR5201263.5%201775.2%11.7pct26.1%17.5%16.1%10.3%5.2%CR5 Euromonitor 10 13.58%49.00%5.00%46.00%51.50%9.50%39.00%67.00%15.00%16.00%10.65%42.00%6.50%50.50%7.00%18.00%73.00%46.00%23.50%16.50%29.50%54.50%2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 18/30 27.50%43.00%22.50%5.84%20.20%79.80%80.00%32.00%39.00%49.00%10.00%41.00%5.00%34.80%60.20%11.86%30.00%70.00%79.00%7.50%7.50%6.00%14.00%81.00%84.50%10.50%12.00%38.00%40.00%24.50%3.00%5.00%92.00%52.50%21.00%25.00%29.00%24.50%23.00%10.00%25.00%28.00%7.00%58.00%18.00%22.00%33.56%5.00%79.50%10.50%21.00%58.00%15.00%31.00%21.00%31.00%72.00%17.00%11.00%54.00%38.00%8.00%19.70%70.50%15.00%78.00%3.2.3.2.1.28/14-28/14/2012-2017185.2412.6CAGR17.37%20123.79%8.90%CAGR6.81%-4.66%2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 19/30 2012-2017CAGR20.06%Euromonitor 20171567.41701.22098.429.2%31.7%39.1%9%29%112012-2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 54609.5 73903.5 92612.0 120211.9 139158.8 156737.1 YOY 35%35%25%30%16%13%46268.4 59489.9 69957.7 88826.7 102235.8 113833.0 YOY 29%29%18%27%15%11%8341.2 14413.6 22654.3 31385.2 36923.0 42904.1 YOY 78%73%57%39%18%16%107046.7 120399.4 129487.6 138800.5 157282.8 170117.9 YOY 9%12%8%7%13%8%235938.8 246483.4 246030.1 230710.0 212869.6 209842.6 YOY 6%4%0%-6%-8%-1%Euromonitor 122012-2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 185.2 232.09 269.7 336.58 378.14 412.57 YOY 25%25%16%25%12%9%174.37 214.62 242.28 296.55 330.06 356.47 YOY 23%23%13%22%11%8%10.83 17.47 27.42 40.03 48.08 56.1 YOY 71%61%57%46%20%17%2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 20/30 633.75 681.46 703.26 725.06 817.87 880.84 YOY 1%1%-3%-8%-10%-4%4063.16 4122.14 4004.19 3669.32 3316.91 3200.56 YOY 3%3%-1%-5%-5%0%Euromonitor 13 2010 2013 25(15-25)1664 502017 4.4.1.61930%2243288.45461987.94%59.27%52.34%34.12%33.97%2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 21/30 2019 Wind 2018569981350201045002018Q42019Q120%3.81%4-53-6 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 22/30 4.2.14050 80%400.96%5.8%A%Wind 4.3.201953631.3011%9.40%8-10%Wind 2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 23/30 20196104183.30/1.59%10%43%3023/3.75%2%6145320/3.36%6103389.50/3.32%31.25%1091.120.31%7.89%911.323.69%11.17%wind wind Wind 5.5.1.3619-1.88%21.63%2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 24/30 2019 Wind 5.2.82%()92%wind wind 5.2.1.4%2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 25/30 wind 1919%23%19720011100800019 1 1.3625%12.5%7.5%0.1 2 350065001.57225%12.5%7.5%0.27 EPS 18 1.5 6.9%1.23 13.8%-2.47%1.33-5.2%1.09 12.2%-4.07%5.2.2.0.66%11867Jerky24001600900 201920%532 25%12.5%7.5%0.15 EPS 18 0.7 24%0.7 3.7%-0.66%2 1 3 8 2 5 8 2/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 7 0 2 1 6:3 2 26/30 0.45-20%0.45 2.4%-1.96%5.3.417%22%13%10%1.2%0.85%wind 5 200049%6-920191 6186182.1 6.201816279.8%518-23CAGR9.10%1/8-1/620182 1 3 8 2 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