世界银行-2019年春季欧洲和中亚经济动态：金融包容性（英文）-2019.4-108页.pdf

Europe and Central Asia Economic Update Office of the Chief EconomistSpring 2019Financial InclusionWORLD BANK ECA ECONOMIC UPDATE SPRING 2019Office of the Chief Economist 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:World Bank.2019.“Financial Inclusion.”Europe and Central Asia Economic Update(Spring),Washington,DC:World Bank.Doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1409-9.License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.TranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-1409-9DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1409-9Cover design:Lauren Kaley Johnson ContentsiiiAcknowledgments.vAbbreviations.viiRegional Classification Used in this Report.ixExecutive Summary.xiPART I:Economic Outlook .11 The Global Context .3Overall Trends .3Europe and Central Asia:Recent Developments and Outlook.7Annex:Data and Forecast Conventions.14References.152 Financial Inclusion in Europe and Central Asia .17Why Does Financial Inclusion Matter?.17Growth in Account Ownership Is Uneven in Europe and Central Asia.18Inequality in Account Ownership Is High in Parts of the Region.20Who Remains Unbanked in Europe and Central Asia?.24Lack of Trust in Banks Is a Major Barrier to Account Ownership.25Use of Accounts for Payments Is Increasing in the Regions Developing Economies.27Use of Digitalized Accounts Is Also Rising.28Informal Saving and Borrowing Is Prevalent in Developing Economies of ECA.32Digital Technology Provides Opportunities to Enhance Financial Inclusion.39Policy Makers Can Increase Account Ownership and Use in Various Ways.40Future Directions of Our Work.41Annex:Survey Methodology.42References.44Part II:Selected Country Pages .45Albania.47Armenia.49Azerbaijan.51Belarus.53Bosnia and Herzegovina.55Bulgaria.57Croatia.59Georgia.61Kazakhstan.63Kosovo.65Kyrgyz Republic.67Moldova.69Montenegro.71North Macedonia.73Poland.75Romania.77iv World Bank ECA Economic Update Spring 2019Figures1.1 Global economic outlook .41.2 Long-term economic challenges facing Europe and Central Asia.122.1 Account ownership in Europe and Central Asia varies widely by subregion.202.2 The gender gap in account ownership persists.222.3 The gender gap in account ownership varies widely within Europe and Central Asia.222.4 Inequality in account ownership remains high in Turkey.242.5 The income gap in account ownership remains large in some countries in Europe and Central Asia.252.6 The share of adults making or receiving digital payments ranges from 25 to 83 percent in Europe and Central Asia.292.7 Use of a mobile phone or the Internet to access an account varies widely within Europe and Central Asia.312.8 Percent of online buyers paying in cash and online in total population.332.9 Formal saving is more common in high-income economies than in developing economies.342.10 The share of adults who saved formally savings was low in most developing economies in Europe and Central Asia.352.11 People in high-income countries rely on formal sources for borrowing,whereas people in developing countries tend to rely on family or friends.362.12 Informal borrowing is prevalent in most developing economies in the region.372.13 Financial resilience is much higher in high-income countries than in developing economies.382.14 People in developing economies of Europe and Central Asia tend to rely on family and friends for emergency funds.382.15 More than 80 percent of the unbanked in Europe and Central Asia owned mobile phones in 2017,creating opportunities for financial inclusion.41Map2.1 Account ownership varies significantly across the world.19Boxes2.1 Financial inclusion in Turkey:Insights from the 2017 Global Findex Survey.262.2 Financial inclusion in the European Union:Insights from the 2017 Global Findex Survey.39Russian Federation.79Serbia.81Tajikistan .83Turkey .85Turkmenistan.87Ukraine.89Uzbekistan.91TablesE.1 Regional classification used in this report.ix1.1 Real GDP .51.2 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary.61.3 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts.92.1 Account ownership in Europe and Central Asia grew between 2011 and 2017.212.2 Gender gap in account ownership varies by country .232.3 The share of adults who made or received a digital payment the previous year rose in most countries in Europe and Central Asia.30vAcknowledgmentsThis Europe and Central Asia(ECA)Economic Update is a product of ECAs Of-fice of the Chief Economist led by Asli Demirg-Kunt,in collaboration with the Macroeconomics,Trade and Investment and the Poverty and Inequality Global Practices.In Part I,Chapter I was prepared by the Prospects Group in the Macroeconom-ics,Trade and Investment Global Practice,comprising Carlos Arteta,Patrick Al-exander Kirby,Julia Renee Roseman,and Collette Mari Wheeler.Chapter I was closely coordinated with contributions from Part II authors.Chapter II was pre-pared by the ECA Chief Economists team including Bingjie Hu and Yue Zhu with contributions from Leora Klapper,Jake Hess and the Global Findex team of the Development Research Group,and inputs from Marialisa Motta,Mario Gua-damillas and Rolf Behrndt of the Finance,Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice.Maurizio Bussolo and David Michael Gould of the ECA Chief Economists office provided valuable comments all across Part I.Part II was prepared by teams from the Macroeconomics,Trade and Invest-ment Global Practice(led by Andrew Burns,Sandeep Mahajan,Lalita M.Moorty,and Gallina Andronova Vincelette)and the Poverty Global Practice(led by Car-los Silva-Jauregui).These teams included the following staff:Azamat Agaidarov,Sarah Nankya Babirye,Reena Badiani-Magnusson,Cesar Cancho,Alexandru Cojocaru,Marcel Chistruga,Pablo Facundo Cuevas,Agim Demukaj,Mariam Dolidze,Andrei Dospinescu,Donato De Rosa,Bakyt Dubashov,Olga Emely-anova,Samuel Freije-Rodriguez,Josip Funda,Mismake D.Galatis,Anastasia Golovach,Claudia Gutierrez,Gohar Gyulumyan,Kiryl Haiduk,Sandra Hlivn-jak,Saida Ismailakhunova,Jonathan George Karver,Edith Kikoni,Milan La-kicevic,Sanja Madzarevic-Sujster,Mikhail Matytsin,Kristina Cathrine Mercado,Rose Mungai,Evgenij Najdov,Metin Nebiler,Minh Cong Nguyen,Trang Van Nguyen,David Night,Ana Maria Oviedo,Catalin Pauna,Alisher Rajabov,Nadir Ramazanov,Julio E.Revilla,Monica Robayo,Paul Andres Corral Rodas,Natasha Rovo,Armineh Manookian Salmasi,Apurva Sanghi,Marc Schiffbauer William Hutchins Seitz,Asli Senkal,Lazar Sestovic,Hilda Shijaku,Bojan Shimbov,Maryna Sidarenka,Emilia Skrok,Karlis Smits,David Andrew Stephan,Alan Fuchs Tarlovsky,Thi Thanh Thanh Bui,Eskender Trushin,Vincent De Paul Tsoungui Belinga,Michal Tulwin,Christoph Ungerer,Ekaterina Vostroknutova,and Bakhrom Ziyaev.Sandra Gain and Barbara Karni provided the editorial support,and Michael Alwan typeset the report.Paul Anthony Clare,Carl Patrick Hanlon,Artem Kole-snikov,and Kym Louise Smithies provided communications and outreach sup-port.Ekaterina Ushakova oversaw the layout and production of the report.viiAbbreviationsBHAS BIH Agency for Statistics BYN Belarusian RubleCAD Current account deficitCBA Central Bank of ArmeniaCIT Corporate income taxCPI Consumer price inflationCROSTAT Croatian Bureau of StatisticsECA Europe and Central AsiaECAPOV ECAPOV(ECA Poverty)database of standardized household surveysEEU Euroasian Economic UnionEMDE Emerging markets and developing economiesFDI Foreign direct investmentFIFA Fdration Internationale de Football AssociationGDP Gross domestic productNBK National Bank of KazakhstanHPP Hydro-power plantHUS Hold utility subsidyICT Information and communication technologyIFI International financial institutionIMF International Monetary FundIT Information technologyLCU Local currency unitLMIC Low and middle income countriesNBG National Bank of GeorgiaNBR National Bank of RomaniaNBS National Bank of SerbiaNPL Non-performing loansOPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesPIT Personal income taxPMI Purchasing Managers IndexPPA Power purchasing agreementsPPG Public and publicly guaranteedPPP Public-private partnershipSAR Special administrative regionSBA Stand-By Arrangement(IMF)viii World Bank ECA Economic Update Spring 2019SOE State-owned enterpriseTFP Total factor productivityTSA Targeted social assistanceURKSTAT Ukranian Bureau of StatisticsVAT Value added taxWB World BankWDI World Development InstituteAlbania ALBArgentina ARGArmenia ARMAustralia AUSAustria AUTAzerbaijan AZEBelarus BLRBelgium BELBosnia and Herzegovina BIHBrazil BRABulgaria BRGCanada CANChile CHLChina CHNColombia COLCroatia HRVCzech Republic CZECyprus CYPDenmark DNKDominican Republic DOMEstonia ESTFinland FINFrance FRAGeorgia GEOGermany DEUGreece GRCHong Kong SAR,China HKGHungary HUNIndia INDIndonesia IDNIran,Islamic Rep.IRNIreland IRLItaly ITAJapan JPNKenya KENKazakhstan KAZKosovo XKXKyrgyz Republic KGZLatvia LVALithuania LTULuxembourg LUXRepublic of North FYROM Macedonia Malaysia MYSMalta MLTMexico MEXMoldova MDAMorocco MARMontenegro MNENew Zealand NZLNigeria NGAThe Netherlands NLDNorway NORPakistan PAKPeru PERPhilippines PHLPoland POLPortugal PRTRomania ROMRussian Federation RUSSaudi Arabia SAUSerbia SRBSingapore SGPSlovak Republic SVKSlovenia SVNSouth Africa ZAFSpain ESPSweden SWESwitzerland CHETanzania TZATajikistan TJKThailand THATurkey TURTurkmenistan TKMUkraine UKRUnited Arab Emirates AREUnited Kingdom GBRUnited States USAUzbekistan UZBVenezuela,RB VENVietnam VNMCountry CodesixRegional Classification Used in this ReportThis report covers 47 countries referred to as Europe and Central Asia(ECA)coun-tries.These are divided into 10 groups:Western Europe,Southern Europe,Central Europe and Baltic Countries,Northern Europe,Western Balkans,South Caucasus,Central Asia,Russia,Turkey,and Eastern Europe.TABLE E.1 Regional classification used in this reportEurope and Central AsiaEuropean Union and Western BalkansEuropean UnionWesternBalkansWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral Europe and Baltic CountriesNorthern EuropeAustriaBelgiumFranceGermanyIrelandLuxemburgThe NetherlandsUnited KingdomCyprusGreeceItalyMaltaPortugalSpainBulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicEstoniaHungaryLatviaLithuaniaPolandRomaniaSlovak RepublicSloveniaDenmarkFinlandSwedenAlbania Bosnia and HerzegovinaKosovoMontenegroRepublic of North MacedoniaSerbiaEastern Europe and Central AsiaSouth CaucasusCentral AsiaRussiaTurkeyEastern EuropeArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgiaKazakhstanKyrgyz Republic TajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistan BelarusMoldova UkrainexiWith slowing global growth and increasing uncertainty clouding the global economic prospects,the Europe and Central Asia region faces a more challenging context than previously envisioned.Growth in the emerging markets and developing economies in the region slowed to 3.1 percent in 2018 and is projected to decline to 2.1 percent in 2019.What challenges does the region face in the coming year?What are some of the risks to the macroeconomic outlook?In the long run,how should policy makers design policies that boost growth and help individuals and firms adjust to the interplay between globalization and technological change?In the global context,this update summarizes the recent developments and outlook for the region.It also focuses on financial inclu-sion,as one of the important policy areas that can promote long-term growth,reduce poverty,and enhance resilience to shocks.The aggregate growth figures mask the diversity of performance across the region.Regional growth was hindered by marked weakness in Turkey amid substantial financial market stress despite strong growth in other parts of the region,such as Central Europe,the Western Balkans,the Russian Federation,and Central Asia.Regional growth is expected to pick up modestly in 202021,as a gradual recovery in Turkey offsets moderating activity in Central Europe.Key ex-ternal risks to the region are spillovers from weaker-than-expected activity in the euro area,as well as the escalation of global policy uncertainty,particularly in trade.Renewal of financial pres-sures in Turkey,combined with possible contagion to the rest of the region,could also disrupt growth in the region.The possibility of sharp declines in energy prices presents a downside risk to the regions energy exporters,such as Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,and Russia.The region faces many long-run challenges to development,ranging from worsening demo-graphics,to declining productivity and investment,to climate change.This