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农林牧渔行业深度:产能变化规律性与本轮猪周期的独特之处-20190623-东北证券-30页.pdf
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农林 行业 深度 产能 变化 规律性 周期 独特 20190623 东北 证券 30
/20182019-202012009-20132006-20102010-2015/2201820182019-20202019416-18/202021-22/EPS PE 2018A 2019E 2020E 2018A 2019E 2020E 37.30 0.74 2.21 3.96 50.08 16.86 9.41 12.97-0.49 0.77 2.81 16.93 4.61 29.83 0.91 1.26 1.87 25.48 23.64 15.99 -17%-3%11%25%39%53%2018/62018/72018/82018/92018/102018/112018/122019/12019/22019/32019/42019/5%1M 3M 12M-0.66%-0.90%36.74%-5.22%-0.82%30.03%106 12398 9817 82.64 3.11 6264 119%49.53 2019232019-06-10 2019222019-06-02 2019-03-17 2019-01-14 S0550519010002 010-63210890 li_ S0550117090057 010-58034581 2/30 .3 1.3 1.1.3 1.2.4 1.3.5 2.6 2.1.6 2.2.6 2.2.1.6 2.2.2.7 2.2.2.1.7 2.2.2.2.8 2.3.9 2.3.1.9 2.3.2.11 2.4.2010-2015.12 2.4.1.2010-2013.12 2.4.2.20132014.13 2.4.3.20142015.13 2.4.4.14 3.14 3.1.14 3.1.1.14 3.1.2.16 3.2.18 3.2.1.18 3.2.2.20 3.2.3.25 4.2019-2020.26 4.1.20194.26 4.2.202021-22/.28 5.28 3/30 10-11MSY 2010-20152017-201820183-720192020 1.20183530%CPI 1.1.1 4/30 1 1.2.062006-2010,2010-2015,2015-06(Cobweb model)2 2 tttt+1t+1t+2 5/30 1.3.10-113 3 2014MSY 4 4 4 1.5-2 4-4.5 14 10 6/30 42009 Wind 2.2.1.MSY 2.2.2.2.1.30%7/30 5 Wind 67 6 7 Wind Wind 2.2.2.2.2.2.1.8 8/30 20102014520154 201011.78/9.48/200920102010-2014201022,749200920,8259.24%201020093.47%2010 2011-20142015 8 Wind 2.2.2.2.10-11tt+192009-20132010-20142009-2013 9/30 9 Wind 2.3.2.3.1.200852012610%10stage1stage220102015stage120112016stage2 10/30 10 Wind 112009-20102014-2015 11 Wind 2009-2013 11/30 2.3.2.:12 Wind 2009-2013201312 1 20092010677-88 2 2012201720132018 12/30 13 Wind 13 201020152009201420112016 2009-20132006-20102010-2015/2.4.2.4.1.2010-2013 2009-201214201020092010-20122010-2013 13/30 142009-20122010-2013 Wind 2.4.2.20132014 2013201420132013201220142013201320122013201415 152013 Wind 2.4.3.20142015 201520142014 14/30 2014201420142013201516 162014 Wind 2.4.4.2009-20132013-20142014-20152018 3.3.1.3.1.1.20191201912711.02/2015211.92/15.11/26.8%10201120192015-2019 15/30 172018.6-2019.6 2015-20192015-20172010-20122017201220172012 182010.1-2019.6 Wind 2014 16/30 20122017102012-2013.102017-2018.102012201720172012 19 Wind 20131-1020181-1020123-1220173-1220131-105.0%20181-1011.8%20182013 20123-124.13%20131-105%1020181-102017201610%20183-720172013 3.1.2.198090%1070952009900 20142014-20180.74%0.96%1.33%17/30 1.67%1%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 663.56 813.89 1013.17 1218.27 1535.06 1712.73 1904.17 2229.70 3.21%60.98 91.76 130.68 185.9 191.9 311.40 723.70 1101.10 1.59%58.38 84.9 114.98 145.95 157.94 226.45 342.25 553.99 0.80%57.28 87.28 116.69 190 253 0.36%*ST 102.4 148.96 156.60 121.2 139.24 246.79 250.96 226.98 0.33%45.97 41.48 58.01 101.42 216.97 0.31%18 40 64.25 113.13 0.16%34.72 44.67 49.23 68.48 0.10%22 54.4 68.1 0.10%24.26 30.92 48.94 64.66 0.09%1.61 5.66 10.70 21.86 41.69 0.06%885.32 1139.51 1415.43 1776.18 2235.54 2820.36 3751.18 4937.8 66170 69628 71557 73510 70825 68502 68861 69382 1.34%1.64%1.98%2.42%3.16%4.12%5.45%7.12%7.12%20 Wind 18/30 3.2.3.2.1.20188520182018 212018-2019+Wind 201820132018201336212774/2018375326198/20183-7201320183-720182017 20191-4420181-420183-620173-62017-20182012-201320131-620141-62012-20133-82017-2018 1 2 19/30 22013201412 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 1 2233.80 2387.02 20489 21096 2233.80 2387.02 20489 21096 2 1489.20 1392.33 1489.20 1392.33 3 1774.80 2048.65 1774.80 2048.65 4 1962.30 2187.63 13722 14126 5 2039.80 1991.20 6 1905.20 1866.90 5497.80 5828.00 20489 21096 11405.10 11873.73 34211 35222 +6.00%+2.96%+4.11%+2.96%Wind 3201820191-4 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 1 2289.21 2434.01 19983 18842 2289.21 2434.01 2 1748.39 1292.88 1748.39 1292.88 3 1917.00 1855.72 1917.00 1855.72 4 2116.09 1840.63 5954.60 5582.61 19983 18842 8070.69 7423.24 -6.25%-5.71%-8.02%Wind 20133-820123-83%-4%20183-620173-65%-6%201852019 20192018201820192011-20122016-201720182-720173-620183-620183-620173-65%-6%20/30 2220183-620173-65%-6%Wind 3.2.2.20063 4 1 2 3 2006-2007 2009-2010 2012-2014 2018-2019 20183-72009201381100%20 422102 21/30 620312612 52018.8.1-2019.6.20 22/30 23/30 OIE 2018831201829 2222 1222222 24/30 2018911201833 20181121 3-4/23 Wind 25/30 2420191 3.2.3.200720112016 2007201120072011201620202020 26/30 252019 Wind 20195%-6%4.2019-2020 4.1.201820183-752017201892018201920183-72019523.90%22.90%20122013-2015 27/30 2620184-20191 Wind 27 Wind 20193102019422/201916-18/28/30 4.2.20202019201820192019121.00%220191202021-22/5.2018 29/30 “”R3ABAAABS “”615%65%15%6-5%5%65%15%615%6 6 6 30/30 http:/400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 1224D 518000 021-20361121 13564972909 021-20361229 17717370432 021-20361258 18221628116 021-20361267 13956071185 chen_ 021-20361258 13120758587 L 021-20361121 18516562656 021-20361112 18801903156 010-58034553 18515018255 010-58034557 18501954588 010-58034555 13701194494 010-58034563 18501944669 010-58034565 18601018177 010-58034561 18600646766 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_ 0755-33975865 15989508876 0755-33975865 13662669201 0755-33975865 18682251183 0755-33975865 18516772531 扫码关注:金融干货精选获取更多干货资料

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