MMAustraliainTransitionMoreSwitchandThriftMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.OurupdatedproprietaryAlphaWisesurveyconfirmsgrowingheadwindsforAustralianhouseholds.WeremoveRBAratehikesfromour2020forecasts,downgradeWBCtoUW,movemoredefensiveintheModelPortfolio(-LLC,+COL),highlightde-ratingriskforWES,andprovideamostandleastexposedlist.January31,201911:47AMGMTMMMORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+RichardEWilesEquityAnalyst+6129770-1537Richard.Wiles@morganstanley.comContributorsMORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+ChrisNicolEquityStrategist+6139256-8909Chris.Nicol@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+ThomasKierathEquityAnalyst+6129770-1578Thomas.Kierath@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+ChrisReadEquityStrategist+6129770-1513Chris.Read@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+EmilieLO'NeillResearchAssociate+6129770-1688Emilie.O'Neill@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+PeterJMarksEquityAnalyst+6129770-9290Peter.Marks@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+DanielKBlakeEquityStrategist+6129770-1579Daniel.Blake@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+AndreiStadnik,FIAAEquityAnalyst+6129770-1684Andrei.Stadnik@morganstanley.comMMBanks–lowergrowth,higherrisk:Weexpectweakerhousingloangrowth,ongoingmarginpressure,growinguncertaintyabouttheretailbankpricingstrategy,andahigherprobabilityofthebearcase.WecutourmajorbankEPSforecastsbyanave...
