美国国防部-关于气候变化对国防部影响的报告（英文）-2019.1-22页.pdf

1 Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense January 2019 Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment As required by Section 335 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018(Public Law 115-91).The estimated cost of this report or study for the Department of Defense is approximately$329,000 in Fiscal Years 2018-2019.This includes$58,000 in expenses and$271,000 in DoD labor.Generated on 2018Dec18 RefID:9-D30BE5A CLEARED For Open Publication Department of Defense OFFICE OF PREPUBLICATION AND SECURITY REVIEW Jan 10,2019 2 January 2019 Elements of Request for Report This report responds to section 335 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018(Public Law 115-91).Specifically,this report provides an assessment of the significant vulnerabilities from climate-related events in order to identify high risks to mission effectiveness on installations and to operations.In developing this report,we discussed the approach with staff from the House and Senate Armed Services Committees,both majority and minority,on more than one occasion.This report is organized into three primary sections:I.Summary of Climate Effects and Resulting Vulnerabilities II.DoD Efforts to Increase Installation Resiliency&Operational Viability III.Conclusions Background The effects of a changing climate are a national security issue with potential impacts to Department of Defense(DoD or the Department)missions,operational plans,and installations.Our 2018 National Defense Strategy prioritizes long-term strategic competition with great power competitors by focusing the Departments efforts and resources to:1)build a more lethal force,2)strengthen alliances and attract new partners,and 3)reform the Departments processes.To achieve these goals,DoD must be able to adapt current and future operations to address the impacts of a variety of threats and conditions,including those from weather and natural events.To that end,DoD factors in the effects of the environment into its mission planning and execution to build resilience.For this report,the Office of the Secretary of Defense requested information and inputs from the Military Departments,Joint Staff,Geographic Combatant Commands,and other organizations.Planning Handbook on Climate Change Installation Adaptation and Resilience In January 2017,Naval Facilities Engineering Command released a handbook for use by planners in assessing climate impacts and evaluating adaptation options to consider in the existing Installation Development Plan(Master Plan)process.The Handbook contains an extensive set of worksheets to be used in documenting the results of planners assessment and evaluation,including economic analyses of adaptation alternatives.Updated United Facilities Criteria(UFCs)In October 2017,DoD UFC 1-200-02,High Performance and Sustainable Building Requirements,was updated to ensure appropriate incorporation of climate-related impacts,amongst other updated/new areas.The UFC provides minimum requirements,and guidance for planning,designing,constructing,renovating,and maintaining high performance and sustainable buildings that will enhance DoD mission capability by reducing total ownership costs.3 U.S.Army Corps of Engineers(USACE)Tools Providing support to civilian and military infrastructure projects,USACE continues to develop assessment and adaptation tools useful in adapting to risks associated with potential changing weather patterns.DoD Directive 4715.21 In January 2016 the Department issued Department of Defense Directive 4715.21 Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience,assigning responsibilities to many levels and DoD components for incorporating climate considerations into planning for infrastructure and operations in order to assess and manage risks associated with the impacts of a changing climate.4 I.Summary of Climate Effects and Vulnerabilities INSTALLATIONS&INFRASTRUCTURE Methodology for Installation Effects The Office of the Secretary of Defense requested information from the Military Departments for climate-related events.To ensure connection to mission impacts,DoD focused on 79 mission assurance priority installations based on their operational role.The Office of the Secretary of Defense requested Military Departments analyze the climate-related events at these installations.The installations break down by organization as follows:The Military Departments noted the presence or not of current and potential vulnerabilities to each installation over the next 20 years,selecting from the events listed below.Note that the congressional request established the 20-year timeframe.Climate-Related Events Recurrent Flooding Drought Desertification Wildfires Thawing Permafrost Military Department input on the 79 installations is included in the Appendix,which is sorted by Military Service.In preparing input for the Appendix,the Military Services were free to select information sources they deemed relevant1.1 Data sources used include:Screening Level Vulnerability Assessment Survey(SLVAS)responses included in the January 2018 Climate-Related Risk to DoD Infrastructure Initial Vulnerability Assessment Survey(SLVAS)Report;USGS Coastal Vulnerability Index(CVI);FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer;US Drought Monitor;USDA Global Desertification Vulnerability Map;USDA layer-2010 Wildland Urban(continued)Interface(WUI)of the Conterminous US Intermix and Interface classes;USGS Volcano Hazards Program;USGS Seismic Information Air Force 35 Army 20 Navy 19 Defense Logistics Agency(DLA)2 Defense Financing and Accounting Service(DFAS)1 National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency(NGA)1 Washington Headquarters Service(WHS)1 5 Summary Table of Current&Potential Effects to 79 Installations The following tables provide a summary of current and future(20 years)vulnerabilities to military installations.Recurrent Flooding Drought Desertification Wildfires Thawing Permafrost Service#Installations Current Potential Current Potential Current Potential Current Potential Current Potential Air Force 35 20 25 20 22 4 4 32 32-Army 20 14 16 4 4 2 2 4 4 1 1 Navy 19 16 16 18 18 -7 -DLA 2 2 2 -2 -DFAS 1-1-NGA 1 1 1 1 1-WHS 1-Totals 79 53 60 43 48 6 6 36 43 1 1 A review of the chart above indicates that recurrent flooding,drought,and wildfires are the primary concerns at the 79 installations included in the analysis.Examples of Vulnerabilities to DoD Installations and Infrastructure The sections below provide examples of impacts to the selected military installations.Each section below includes a brief general description of the vulnerability factor and possible impacts to military installations or infrastructure followed by examples.Recurrent Flooding Vulnerabilities to installations include coastal and riverine flooding.Coastal flooding may result from storm surge during severe weather events.Over time,gradual sea level changes magnify the impacts of storm surge,and may eventually result in permanent inundation of property.Increasing coverage of land from nuisance flooding during high tides,also called“sunny day”flooding,is already affecting many coastal communities.Joint Base Langley-Eustis(JBLE-Langley AFB),Virginia,has experienced 14 inches in sea level rise since 1930 due to localized land subsidence and sea level rise.Flooding at JBLE-Langley,with a mean sea level elevation of three feet,has become more frequent and severe.Navy Base Coronado experiences isolated and flash flooding during tropical storm events,particularly in El Nio years.Upland Special Areas are subject to flash floods.The main installation reports worsening sea level rise and storm surge impacts that include access limitations and other logistic related impairments.6 Navy Region Mid-Atlantic and the greater Hampton Roads area is one of the most vulnerable to flooding military operational installation areas in the United States.Sea level rise,land subsidence,and changing ocean currents have resulted in more frequent nuisance flooding and increased vulnerability to coastal storms.As a result,and to better mitigate these issues,the Region has engaged in several initiatives and partnerships to address the associated challenges.Drought Drought can negatively impact U.S.military installations in various ways,particularly in the Southwest.For example,dry conditions from drought impact water supply in areas dependent on surface water.Additionally,droughts dry out vegetation,increasing wildfire potential/severity.Specific to military readiness,droughts can have broad implications for base infrastructure,impair testing activities,and along with increased temperature,can increase the number of black flag day prohibitions for testing and training.Drought can contribute to heat-related illnesses,including heat exhaustion and heat stroke,outlined by the U.S.Army Public Health Center.Energy consumption may increase to provide additional cooling for facilities.Several DoD sites in the DC area(including Joint Base Anacostia Bolling,Joint Base Andrews,U.S.Naval Observatory/Naval Support Facility,and Washington Navy Yard)periodically experienced drought conditions extreme in 2002 and severe from 2002 through 2018.In addition,Naval Air Station Key West experienced drought in 2015 and 2011,ranging from extreme to severe,respectively.These examples highlight that drought conditions may occur in places not typically perceived as drought regions.Drought conditions have caused significant reduction in soil moisture at several Air Force bases resulting in deep or wide cracks in the soil,at times leading to ruptured utility lines and cracked road surfaces.Desertification Desertification poses a number of challenges related to training and maneuvers.Desertification results in reductions in vegetation cover leading to increases in the amount of runoff from precipitation events.Greater runoff contributes to:higher erosion rates increased stream sediment loads deposition of sediment in unwanted areas This reduces the effectiveness of flood risk management infrastructure while increasing the potential for siltation of water supply reservoirs.Following rain,eroded soil may be less suitable for native vegetation,resulting in bare land or revegetation with non-native,weedy species.In cases where this results in the expansion of shrub-lands,this could affect the suitability of the landscape for military maneuvers and off-road use.Army installations Camp Roberts in San Miguel,California,and White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico were identified as vulnerable to current and future desertification,which 7 accelerates erosion and increases soil fragility,possibly limiting future training and testing exercises.Air Force bases in western states,including Kirtland,Creech,Nellis,and Hill were also identified as vulnerable to current and future desertification.Wildfires Due to routine training and testing activities that are significant ignition sources,wildfires are a constant concern on many military installations.As a result,the DoD spends considerable resources on claims,asset loss,and suppression activities due to wildfire.While fire is a key ecological process with benefits for both sound land management and military capability development,other climatic factors including increased wind and drought can lead to an increased severity of wildfire activity.This could result in infrastructure and testing/training impacts.In March 2018 two related wildfires broke out in Colorado during an infantry and helicopter training exercise for an upcoming deployment.Later determined to be due to live fire training,gusty winds and dry conditions allowed the fire to spread,reaching about 3,300 acres in size,destroying three homes,and causing the evacuation of 250 homes.A wildfire in November 2017 burned 380 acres on Vandenberg Air Force Base in southern California.While no structures were burned,the fire prompted evacuation of some personnel.Firefighters from the U.S.Forest Service,Santa Barbara County,and other localities assisted the Vandenberg Fire Department in managing the fire.The Canyon Wildfire at Vandenberg in September 2016 burned over 10,000 acres and came very close to two Space Launch Complexes.A scheduled rocket launch had to be delayed.Several facilities on the south part of the base were operating on generators due to the loss of electrical power lines.Thawing Permafrost Permafrost presents risks for critical built infrastructure.Soil strength,ground subsidence,and stability are primarily affected by the phase change of ground ice to water at or near 0C and when the soil thermal regime changes(by human activity,infrastructure emplacement,or systemic shifts related to weather).Such subsidence may be rapid and catastrophic(days),very slow and systematic(decades),or somewhere in between.Whether rapid or slow,thawing permafrost decreases the structural stability to foundations,buildings,and transportation infrastructure and requires costly mitigation responses that disrupt planning,operations,and budgets.In addition,thawing permafrost exposes coasts to increased erosion.Permafrost underlays about 85 percent of Alaska;it is thickest north of the Brooks Range and gradually diminishes southward.Permafrost thaw is relevant to DoD training and testing needs.Thermokarst,which is a type of landscape that results from thawing permafrost,increases wetland areas and creates more challenging terrain.In Fort Greeley,Alaska,Army training ranges are built on,or are being planned in permafrost-dominated areas.Predicting where this phenomenon occurs and how permafrost might change is vital to maintaining training operations and assessing impending environmental management challenges.8 OPERATIONS A changing climate can impact DoDs operations through:Changes in the manner in which DoD maintains readiness and provides support.Changes to what DoD may be asked to support.Vulnerabilities to Mission Execution and Operational/Posture Plans The National Defense Strategy sets the strategic priorities for the Department and,in turn,the Combatant Commands(CCMD).The CCMD missions may be affected by timing and severity of climate events,which may affect mission in some cases.When I look at climate change,its in the category of sources of conflict around the world and things wed have to respond to.So it can be great devastation requiring humanitarian assistance disaster relief which the U.S.military certainly conducts routinely.”Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dunford,November 2018 Country Instability Issues:In the United States Africa Command(USAFRICOM)Area of Responsibility(AOR),rainy season flooding and drought/desertification are very important factors in mission execution on the continent.Flooding and earthquake-induced tsunamis in Indonesia contribute to instability in the Indo-Pacific Command(INDOPACOM).Logistics and Mission Support Issues:Weather conditions over the Mediterranean Sea currently impact intelligence,surveillance,and re