美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国糖与甜味剂展望-20200617-29页.pdf

Approved by USDAs World Agricultural Outlook Board Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Michael McConnell,coordinator Jennifer K.Bond,contributor U.S.Sugar Market Ending Stocks for 2019/20 Raised on Higher Imports,Lower Use The U.S.sugar market in 2019/20 is estimated to have a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.4 percent,compared with 10.4 percent the previous month.Domestic deliveries are reduced 75,000 short tons,raw value(STRV)based on lower deliveries reported in April,as consumers shifted heavily toward at-home food consumption.Imports are raised 284,000 STRV from the previous month due to higher shipments from Mexico and more high-tier imports expected.Projected ending stocks for 2020/21 remain unchanged,as higher beginning stocks are offset by lower imports from Mexico.Mexico sugar production is raised 105,000 metric tons,actual value(MT)to 5.230 million MT,as the harvest is scheduled to conclude by the end of June.Domestic deliveries are lowered 70,000 MT.As a result,Mexico is forecast to have additional supplies for export to the United States for 2019/20.The global sugar market is projected to see production and consumption rebound in 2020/21 on higher field and factory yields,after poor weather conditions in several major sugar-producing countries resulted in a production deficit for 2019/20.The global sugar market will be influenced by weather,public health and domestic health policies,and macroeconomic factors such as oil prices and exchange rates,however,resulting in expected market volatility.U.S.honey production increased in 2019,but the national average price fell.Imports continue to account for most of the domestic supply,as pollinator migratory patterns follow the seasonal movement of forage areas and economic drivers.Economic Research Service|Situation and Outlook Report Next release is July 16,2020 SSS-M-382|June 17,2020 In this report:U.S.Sugar Outlook Mexico Sugar Outlook Global Sugar Markets U.S.Honey Market 2 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-382,June 17,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service United States Outlook U.S.Ending Stocks Raised for 2019/20 In the USDAs June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE),the U.S.total sugar supply for 2019/20 is estimated at 13.822 million short tons,raw value(STRV)a 284,000 STRV increase from the May estimate.The increase is coupled with a 75,000-STRV decrease in estimated total use,pushing the ending stock forecast up 359,000 STRV.As a result,the 2019/20 ending stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to be 13.4 percentan increase from the previous months mark of 10.4 percent.The stocks-to-use ratio for 2020/21 remains projected at 12.0 percent,as higher projected beginning stocks are offset by lower expected imports.Table 1:U.S.sugar:Supply and use by fiscal year(Oct./Sept.),June 2020Items2019/202020/212019/202020/21(estimate)(forecast)(estimate)(forecast)Beginning stocks 2,0081,7831,6321,8221,6171,481Total production 8,9998,0249,0058,1637,2808,169 Beet sugar4,9394,2854,9654,4803,8874,504 Cane sugar4,0603,7404,0403,6833,3933,665 Florida2,0052,1002,1051,8191,9051,910 Louisiana1,9071,5131,8001,7301,3721,633 Texas147127135134115122 Hawaii000000 Total imports3,0704,0153,0972,7853,6422,809 Tariff-rate quota imports 1,5412,1801,3951,3981,9781,266 Other program imports438350350397318318 Non-program imports1,0921,4851,3519901,3471,226 Mexico 1,0001,2551,3019081,1381,181 High-duty91230508320945Total supply14,076.7513,82213,73412,77012,53912,459Total exports 353535313232Miscellaneous28002600Deliveries for domestic use12,23112,15512,23011,09611,02711,095 Transfer to sugar-containing products for exports under re-export program988080897373 Transfer to polyhydric alcohol,feed,other alcohol272525252323 Commodity Credit Corporation(CCC)sale for ethanol,other000000 Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use 12,10612,05012,12510,98210,93211,000Total use12,29412,19012,26511,15311,05911,127Ending stocks 1,7831,6321,4691,6171,4811,332 Private1,7831,6321,4691,6171,4811,332 Commodity Credit Corporation(CCC)000000Stocks-to-use ratio14.5013.3911.9714.5013.3911.97Source:USDA,Economic Research Service,Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook.2018/191,000 Short tons,raw value1,000 Metric tons,raw value2018/19rMsOoMuMuM6M9RbRnPrRpNoOiNnNqOeRrQvNbRoPnQNZpMyQwMoOrP3 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-382,June 17,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service U.S.Sugar Deliveries for 2019/20 Reduced Total U.S.sugar use is estimated at 12.190 million STRV for 2019/20.The decrease from the May estimate is due to lower domestic deliveries for food and beverage use,which is reduced 75,000-STRV to 12.050 million STRV.The social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been a factor in the market since mid-March when many U.S.States and municipalities began issuing public policies that altered consumers behavior.There are several key data points observed that resulted in the lowering of estimated deliveries,and these data points will likely be incorporated in future decisions as additional data and market information become known.After a record-setting melt by cane sugar refiners in March,cane refiners output was significantly lower in Aprilalthough still above average.Additionally,cane refiners refined sugar inventories increased.This change in April coincided with the market impacts of social distancing guidelines and various local public policy restrictions.It indicates that cane refineries substantially lowered their utilization rates and potentially saw a buildup of product due to lower-than-expected shipments.This is particularly notable as it occurred just as the cane-refining sector was beginning to substantially increase its output to make up for supply shortages seen in the beet-processing sector.350400450500550600650700OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep1,000 short tons,raw valueFigure 1Sugarcane refiners melt,monthly,2016/17 to 2019/20Post-2010 Range2018/192019/20AverageSource:USDA,Farm Service Agency.4 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-382,June 17,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Additionally,data reported by the Farm Service Agencys(FSA)Sweetener Market Data(SMD)provide information that can reveal some of the recent shift of consumers eating more food at home and less away from home.Using data provided by reporters to the SMD of deliveries by package type as a proxy for at-home versus away-from-home sugar consumption,some inferences can be made about the impact of the recent market developments.Bulk shipments of sugar have been lower than expected since January 2020.Much of this is attributed to low beet sugar production and the force majeures that have occurred this year due to a record amount of sugarbeets that went unharvested during the 2019 harvest season.The reduction in bulk shipments is likely offset,at least partially,by the increase in non-reporter deliveries that include high-tier tariff imports,imports from the increased refined tariff rate quota(TRQ)announced in April,and additional amounts of sugar from free-trade agreements(FTA)that come in without need of further refinement.Bulk deliveries in April,however,were even lower than in previous months.This additional decline is likely the impact of the business disruptions caused by COVID-19.0100200300400500600700OctoberDecemberFebruaryAprilJuneAugust1,000 short tons,raw valueFigure 2Sugarcane refiners refined sugar inventories,monthly,2016/17 to 2019/20Post-2010 Range5-year average2019/202018/19Source:USDA,Farm Service Agency.5 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-382,June 17,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Deliveries of sugar in large packaging(bags larger than 50 pounds)and liquid sugar also were lower than expectations in April,despite the spike seen in both categories in March.This is likely representative of fewer shipments for food manufacturers,as well as segments of the food service industry that purchases sugar in larger bags and packaging.6 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-382,June 17,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Finally,deliveries in consumer-sized packages were higher than normal in April.This is likely a continuation of the increase observed in March as consumers shifted to more at-home consumption.The increase in consumer-sized package deliveries is not large enough to offset the decreases seen in the other categories,however.Ultimately,the reduction in deliveries for food and beverage use reflects the net impact seen thus far as a result of the economic disruptions of COVID-19.Through April,total deliveries are 7 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-382,June 17,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service 2.5 percent higher than the same period the previous year,but this is entirely due to the growth in non-reporter deliveries.Deliveries from the domestic beet processing and cane refining sectors were 0.4 percent lower over that period.Deliveries for food and beverage use for 2020/21 are projected at 12.125 million STRV,unchanged from the previous months forecast.This would represent a 0.6-percent annual increase from the previous year.Like the outlook for 2019/20,however,deliveries in the next fiscal year will be subject to the outlook of public health and the macroeconomy.Outlook for Production Remains Unchanged for 2019/20 and 2020/21 U.S.sugar production for 2019/20 is estimated at 8.024 million STRV,unchanged from the previous months estimate.Beet sugar production for 2019/20 is estimated at 4.285 million STRV,also unchanged.The slicing campaign is nearing its end for all processors heading into the summer months,particularly with the small sugarbeet crop that was harvested this year.Eyes are now turning to the 2020/21 sugarbeet crop,with the planting season completed by the end of May.Planting progress was behind the historical average in many States but reports from processors indicate that development conditions have been conducive for a sugarbeet crop in line with longer-term trends and averages.Beet sugar production for 2020/21 is projected at 4.965 million STRV,also unchanged from the previous month,based on the assumption that sugarbeet-producing regions face normal weather conditions during the development and harvest stages of the crop.2014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20Annual changePercentBeet sugar processors2,7442,5483,0323,0602,8862,696-6.6Cane sugar refiners3,5253,6923,4733,4263,6113,7784.6Total reporters6,2696,2406,5056,4866,4976,474-0.4Nonreporter,direct consumption31949845537450470339.4Total deliveries6,5886,7386,9606,8607,0017,1762.5Final fiscal year deliveries 1/11,92111,88112,10212,04812,10612,050-0.51/Latest WASDE estimate for 2019/20.Source:USDA,Farm Service Agency.Table 2:Food and beverage deliveries,2014/15 to 2019/20,October through April1,000 short tons,raw value8 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-382,June 17,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Cane sugar production for 2019/20 is estimated at 3.740 million STRV,unchanged from May.Florida is the only sugarcane-producing State that is still reporting production for its 2019/20 harvest that concluded earlier this month.Production for 2020/21 is projected to total 4.040 million STRV,also unchanged from May.The current projections are in line with processors first forecast submitted through the SMD for June.The first crop data reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service(NASS)for the upcoming sugarcane crop will be released at the end of the month in the Acreage report,which will include the first forecast of harvested area in Florida,Louisiana,and Texas.Estimated Imports Raised for 2019/20 Imports are estimated to be 4.015 million STRV for 2019/20,a 284,000-STRV increase from the May estimate.The increases are due to additional shipments expected from Mexico,as well as Table 3:Beet sugar production projection calculation,2019/20 and 2020/212015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202019/202020/212020/21MayJuneMayJuneSugarbeet production(1,000 short tons)1/35,37136,88135,32533,28228,60028,60033,67133,671Sugarbeet shrink6.5%8.3%7.3%5.2%5.7%5.7%6.6%6.6%Sugarbeet sliced(1,000 short tons)33,06633,83432,74231,56126,98426,98431,45431,454Sugar extraction rate from slice14.58%13.72%15.18%14.77%14.31%14.31%14.51%14.51%Sugar from beets slice(1,000 STRV)2/4,8204,6434,9704,6603,8613,8614,5644,564Sugar from molasses(1,000 STRV)2/380352368352337337360360Crop-year sugar production(1,000 STRV)2/5,2014,9955,3385,0124,1984,1984,9244,924August-September sugar production(1,000 STRV)688606715655582582633633August-September sugar production of subsequent crop(1,000 STRV)606715655582633633638638Sugar from imported beets(1,000 STRV)3/-36363636Fiscal year sugar production(1,000 STRV)5,1195,1035,2794,9394,2854,2854,9654,965Note:STRV=short tons,raw value.Source:USDA,Economic Research Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board.1/USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service for historical data.2/August-July basis.3/Sugar from imported beets split out for projections only,included in total once full crop-year slice is recorded.Sugar from imported beets is incorporated into total production in historical data.2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20Annual changePercentFlorida Sugarcane harvested for sugar(1,000 acres)3983923973973970.0 Sugarcane yield(short tons per acre)42.540.340.941.742.82.6 Sugarcane production(1,000 short tons)16,91516,12016,23716,55516,9922.6 Recovery rate(percent)12.812.712.212.112.42.0 Sugar production(1,000 STRV)2,1732,0551,9832,0052,1004.7Louisiana Sugarcane harvested for sugar(1,000 acres)3854004144254424.0 Sugarcane yield(short tons per acre)29.628.832.535.327.7-21.5 Sugarcane production(1,000 short tons)11,39611,52013,45515,00312,243-18.4 Recovery rate(percent)12.514.213.812.512.4-1.1 Sugar production(1,000 STRV)1,4281,6321,8621,8751,513-19.3Texas Sugarcane harvested for sugar(1,000 acres)3538413831-16.8 Sugarcane yield(short tons per acre)31.437.036.836.633.6-8.2 Sugarcane production(1,000 short tons)1,1051,3951,4901,3761,052-23.6 Recovery rate(percent)10.59.911.310.712.112.8 Sugar production(1,000 STRV)116138169148127-13.8Note:STRV=short tons,raw value.Source:USDA,Farm Service Agency;USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service.Table 4:U.S.sugarcane and cane sugar production,by State,2015/16 to 2019/209 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-382,June 17,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service more high-tier tariff imports,entering at the full duty rate.Imports from Mexico are estimated at 1.255 million STRV,a 204,000-STRV increase from the May estimate.The increase is due to changes to the Mexico sugar balance table that allows additional supplies to be shipped to the United States.Additional information on the Mexico balance table can be found in the subsequent section of this report.Estimated high-tier tariff imports are raised 80,000 STRV,totaling 230,000 STRV,in the May WASDE.Large,persistent price differentials between the U.S.wholesale prices for refined sugar and the World futures price for refined sugar have provided an opportunity for traders to import sugar economically,even with the full duty rates applied to those ship