穆迪:
2018Q4中国影子银行报告-2019.3-62页
穆迪
2018
Q4
中国
影子
银行
报告
2019.3
62
Quarterly China ShadowBanking MonitorMARCH,2019Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 20192Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor1.Key Messages2.Credit Conditions(a)Liquidity Conditions(b)Financing Conditions for Corporates3.Composition and Trends of Shadow Banking(a)Wealth Management Products(b)Trust Sector4.Interconnectedness and Spillover Risks to Banks5.The Growth of E-finance6.Regulatory Updates&Market Events7.Appendix:Glossary,Notes on Estimates&Data Sources1Key MessagesQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 20194Key MessagesThe shadow banking sector shrank by RMB4.3 trillion in 2018 to end the year at RMB61.3 trillion,its smallest since the end of 2016 or just before the regulatory crackdown on the sector began.The contraction in 2018 was concentrated in core shadow banking activities including trust loans,entrusted loans and undiscounted bankers acceptances.These three activities reported a combined decline of RMB2.9 trillion in the year.The broad shadow banking sector as a share of GDP has shrunk by nearly 20 percentage points to 68%at the end of 2018 from its peak of 87%two years ago.2018 marked the first annual contraction for broad shadow banking assets in both absolute and GDP terms over the past decade.Interconnectedness among financial institutions also declined in the year,as reflected in a 63%contraction in outstanding WMPs purchased by interbank investors and a 34%contraction in commercial banks net claims on non-bank financial institutions(NBFIs).Monetary policy relaxation has led to easier liquidity and corporate funding conditions,but credit growth remains lackluster and is weighted to shorter maturities.Formal bank lending accounted for vast majority of our adjusted new total social financing(TSF)flows in 2018.We expect the ongoing rotation of new credit supply back to banks loan books will continue in 2019.However,risk aversion of banks and bond investors remains high as economic growth slows.Stronger bank lending in the past few months has been increasingly driven by short-term bill financing.In the bond market,corporate bond yield spreads of issuers with lower domestic credit ratings remain elevated.POEs(Privately Owned Enterprises)have experienced the greatest disruption to credit availability from the shadow banking crackdown.Recent policy measures have only partially alleviated their distress.Since Q4 2018,the authorities have pushed for enhanced financial support for POEs especially micro and small enterprises(MSEs).However,the measures taken to date have mainly resulted in greater differentiation in access for credit.POEs with strong credit profiles have enjoyed improved access to credit while those with weaker fundamentals still find it difficult to access new funding.Moreover,those MSEs not directly targeted by the supportive measures have seen little improvement in their funding conditions.Although the regulatory crackdown on shadow banking activities will moderate in 2019,as policy priorities shift towards sustaining growth and slower deleveraging,we do not expect a strong rebound in the sector.The deleveraging and de-risking campaigns made progress in 2018 in reducing financial system interconnectedness,but also exacted an economic cost in terms of reducing POEs access to credit with apparent impact on overall economic growth.The 2019 government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang aims to maintain stable economy-wide leverage for 2019,while keeping credit growth more aligned with nominal GDP growth.However,even as current policy priorities are shifting towards sustaining growth and a slower pace of deleveraging this year,we do not expect a rapid rebound in shadow credit supply as the authorities also retain their focus on financial system risks.2Credit ConditionsQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 20196Broad shadow banking assets*shrank by RMB4.3 trillion in 2018 to RMB61.3 trillion at the end of the year,their lowest since the end of 2016.Decline in major shadow banking components has led to a further drop in shadow banking assets as a share of GDP to around 68%last year,compared with the peak level of 87%at the end of 2016.We expect authorities to moderate their efforts to crackdown on shadow banking activities in 2019 as policy priorities shift towards sustaining growth and slower deleveraging.This should help support economic and financial stability,and will marginally alleviate funding pressure on POEs most affected by the contraction in shadow credit supply.However,a rapid rebound in shadow credit supply is also unlikely,as the authorities will retain focus on financial system risks.*As defined in Slide 23Sources:Moodys Investors Service estimates,National Bureau of Statistics and PBOCBroad shadow banking assets tumble to the lowest level in the past two years0204060801000601201802403002012201320142015201620172018E%RMB trillionShadow bankingBank loansTotal bank assets(including bank loans)Shadow banking as%of GDP(RHS)Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 20197Policy priorities shift towards sustaining growth and slower deleveraging Overall credit growth,measured by our adjusted TSF series*,has continued to moderate and has tracked nominal GDP growth throughout 2018.Although credit growth showed some signs of picking up in the first two months of 2019,the turnaround is still not sufficiently strong to shore up economic growth.This dynamic increasingly points to the trade-offs that the government faces between growth,stability and deleveraging/de-risking.Although the 2019 government work report targets stable economy-wide leverage,we expect policy to further shift towards sustaining economy growth with a slower pace of deleveraging efforts to avoid disruption to economic momentum.*Total social financing(TSF)is an official measure of broad credit in the financial system consisting of formal bank loans,shadow banking activities,direct financing(bond and equity issuance)and others(e.g.microcredit).The series shown above reflects our adjustments:(1)to exclude equity financing,(2)from May 2015 onwards to account for distortions from the local government debt swap program(see slide 57),and(3)from Jan 2017 onwards to exclude asset-backed securities of depository financial institutions,banks write-off,and local government special bonds for data consistency.Core shadow banking activities include entrusted loan,trust loan and undiscounted bankers acceptances in TSF.Sources:Moodys Investors Service and PBOC-15-10-505101520%year-on-yearNominal GDPOutstanding adjusted total social financing*Core shadow bankingQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 20198 Core shadow banking components include entrusted loan,trust loan and undiscounted bankers acceptances in the TSFSources:Moodys Investors Service and PBOCCore shadow banking activities declined by 10.9%in 2018,compared with an increase of 15.3%in 2017.These activities are composed of trust loans,entrusted loans and undiscounted bankers acceptances(all captured by the official TSF).Supply of core shadow credit remains subdued,but is likely to marginally improve in 2019 as authorities slow the pace of crackdown on these shadow banking activities.Contraction in core shadow credit moderated in early 2019-20-10010203040%year-on-yearEntrusted loansTrust loansUndiscounted bankers acceptancesCore shadow banking growthQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 20199In 2018 there was a notable full-year decline of net shadow credit supply.New credit supply has been mostly sustained by formal bank lending,supported by the authorities gradual shift toward an easing bias in its monetary policy stance.We expect the ongoing rotation of new credit supply back to banks loan book to continue.Growth in risk-weighted assets will further drive banks need for additional capital.The authorities have been supportive of capital raising,including through the creation of central bank bills swap(CBS)facility to support eligible banks issuance of perpetual bonds in January 2019.*Adjusted new TSF flows exclude asset-backed securities of depository financial institutions,banks write-off,and local government special bonds for data consistency.See Banks China:Launch of swap facility to support banks perpetual bond issuance is credit positive,January 2019Sources:Moodys Investors Service and PBOCFormal bank lending to partly offset decline in net shadow credit-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2009201020112012201320142015201620172018As%of new TSF flows*Formal bank loans as%of TSFCore shadow banking as%of TSFDirect financing as%of TSFQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 201910In 2018,net shadow credit supply has fallen to-2.9%of GDP in some north and northeast provinces*from 6.3%of GDP in the previous year.The share of net credit supply through formal bank loans and direct financing(consisting mainly of corporate bonds and equity financing)relative to GDP remained stable.In contrast,new credit supply through bank lending and direct financing has stepped up in other provinces,which partially offset the impact from reduced shadow credit on overall credit supply at local levels in 2018.*Hebei,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Shanxi,ShaanxiSources:Moodys Investors Service,PBOC and National Bureau of StatisticsBut new credit supply diverges across provinces-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2017201820172018Provinces in the North and Northeast*Other ProvincesNet flows as%of GDPFormal bank loansCore shadow bankingDirect financing2aLiquidity ConditionsQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 201912The PBOC has shifted its policy stance towards more monetary and credit easing since Q4 2018 amid mounting pressures on economic growth.In December 2018,it introduced the targeted medium-term lending facility*(TMLF),and further increased re-lending and re-discounting quotas by RMB100bn to support credit facilities granted to POEs including MSEs.In January 2019,the PBOC cut reserve requirements by 100 bps and inject net liquidity of around RMB800 billion after MLF repayments.The policy impact was reflected in lower interbank repo rate for all financial institutions(R007)and that exclusive to depositary institutions(DR007).We expect more policies to target reliving financial strains among POEs and MSEs in 2019 in line with the latest government work report.*The PBOC has introduced the target medium-term lending facility(TMLF),which aims to enhance financial support to POEs including the MSEs through providing long term and lower cost funding to qualified large and midsize banks.*Depository institutions include banks,credit cooperatives and finance companies.Sources:Moodys Investors Service and WindPBOC shifts towards more monetary and credit easing234567Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18Dec-18Mar-19%SHIBOR 7DInterbank Repo Rate 7D(R007)Interbank Repo Rate 7D(DR007)PBOC Reverse Repo Rate 7DStanding Lending Facility 7D(SLF)Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 201913The PBOCs active injection of interbank liquidity under a more accommodative monetary policy stance has underpinned a further decline in the issuing rates on interbank negotiable certificates of deposits(NCDs).Small and midsized banks still dominate the primary market of NCDs(see Slide 40)Improving interbank liquidity and lower NCD issuing rates may ease pressure on these banks net interest margins(NIMs).Issuing rates for interbank NCDs fall further as liquidity conditions easeSources:Moodys Investors Service and Wind1.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18Dec-18Mar-19Interbank CD(3M)Issuing Rate,%Joint-stock banksCity commercial banksRural commercial banksQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 201914PBOCs direct lending to banks climbs to a record high level*Note:Foreign assets mainly include foreign reserves,monetary gold and other foreign assets held by the central bank.Sources:Moodys Investors Service and PBOC0%20%40%60%80%100%PBOC claims(%of total assets)Foreign assets*Claims on central governmentClaims on other depository corporationsClaims on NBFIsOther assetsPBOCs claims on other depository corporations(mainly policy and commercial banks)climbed to RMB11.2 trillion,or 30%of its total assets,at the end of 2018.This extends the trend seen in the last few quarters and reflects the increased use of targeted liquidity instruments by the central bank to support bank funding.2bFinancing Conditions for CorporatesQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 201916Banks corporate lending has picked up in the past few months,driven largely by short-term bill financing.This has helped relieve liquidity pressure on corporate borrowers,especially some POEs including MSEs,but will not support investment and growth because of the short-term nature of the instrument.Medium to long-term lending to corporates remains subdued and suggests that banks risk aversion remains high.Strong bill financing eases funding pressure,banks risk aversion still highSources:Moodys Investors Service and PBOC-303691215Aug-14Feb-15Aug-15Feb-16Aug-16Feb-17Aug-17Feb-18Aug-18Feb-19%year-on-yearHouseholds-Short-term loanHouseholds-Medium to long-term loanCorporates-Short-term loan&bill financingCorporates-Medium to long-term loanOthersGrowth of bank loans to non-financial sectorQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 201917According to the PBOCs fourth quarter monetary policy report,the weighted average rate for general corporate loans declined to 5.91%in Q4 2018 from a three-year high of 6.19%in the previous quarter.The lending rate for micro enterprises dropped by 39 bps in the five months ending December 2018.The larger decline in the funding cost for corporate bill financing has underpinned recent strength in such financing.Sources:Moodys Investors Service and PBOCCorporates with access to bank lending see marginal decline in funding cost0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%2017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q4The weighted average lending rate,%General corporate loanCorporate bill financingQuarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor,March 201918Growth of banks overall MSE lending*moderated to 8.9%year-on-year in 2018,from 15.1%in 2017.The growth of total non-financial corporate loans outpaced MSE lending in Q4 2018 and suggested that bank lending mainly benefited larger corporates.Recent measures concentrate on supporting a small part of MSEs.Reflecting this,MSEs with credit lines of no greater than RMB10 million saw the strongest increase in bank lending,which rose by 21.8%in 2018.The remaining MSEs with credit lines of more than RMB10 million only saw their loans increased by 4.6%in 2018,despite accounting for 72%of banks MSE loans.MSEs not directly targeted by the supportive measures have seen little improvement in their funding conditions.Differentiation in MSEs access to credit reflects limits of supportive policy*Micro and small enterprise(MSE)lending includes loans extended to small enterprises,micro enterprises,individual industrial and commercial households,and MSE o