美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国牲畜、乳制品和家禽展望：2020年大多数红肉和家禽的出口预测将更高-20190617-27页.pdf

Approved by USDAs World Agricultural Outlook Board Livestock,Dairy,and Poultry Outlook 2020 Exports for Most Red Meats and Poultry Forecast Higher U.S.exports of red meat and poultry are expected to increase by more than 4 percent in 2020.Beef exports are forecast to increase 2.7 percent,largely due to lower anticipated competition in Asian markets,as beef supplies in Oceania will reflect weather-related herd reduction this year.Pork exports are expected to increase more than 7 percent next year as Mexican demand for U.S.pork is re-established following the removal of tariffs in mid-May,2019.Broiler export growth is forecast at 2.3 percent based on expectations of increased demand in low-and middle-income countries,particularly as the global meat and poultry market is pressured by shifting Chinese demand.Growth of 3 percent is anticipated for turkey exports next year,supported by strength in shipments to Mexicothe largest buyer of U.S.turkey meatwith continued low turkey prices expected to draw additional international buying interest.Lamb and mutton exports are likely to fall as U.S.production trends lower.Export volumes for eggs and egg products are forecast to decrease by 3 percent,based on expectations of continued softness in foreign demand.Dairy exports are expected to grow 3.3 percent next year as global demand for dairy products grows.2.77.4-8.42.33.0-33.3-10-8-6-4-20246810BeefPorkLamb&MuttonBroilersEggs%Percent change in exports(2020/2019)Dairy*Source:USDA,Economic Research Service.*Dairy exports are reflected on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis.TurkeyEconomic Research Service|Situation and Outlook Report Next release is July 17,2019 LDP-M-300|June 17,2019 2 Livestock,Dairy,and Poultry Outlook,LDP-M-300,June 17,2019 USDA,Economic Research Service Beef/Cattle:The cost of feeding cattle is expected to rise this year,likely slowing the pace of placements in feedlots and reducing anticipated marketings.This prompted forecasts for beef production in 2019 and 2020 to be reduced slightly on lower expected fed cattle slaughter.Cattle price forecasts were lowered to reflect current price weakness.Beef imports continue to exceed year-earlier levels,but exports lag behind in early 2019.Dairy:Due to recent declines in milk cow numbers,relatively high slaughter levels,and higher expected feed prices,milk production forecasts have been lowered for 2019 and 2020.Dairy exports were relatively weak in April,and export forecasts have been lowered for both 2019 and 2020.The all-milk price forecast for 2019 is$18.00 per cwt,5 cents lower than last months forecast.The all-milk price forecast for 2020 is$18.90 per cwt,10 cents higher than last months forecast.Pork/Hogs:Estimated gross processing margins have been consistently year-over-year lower since early April.While second-quarter prices of both hogs and wholesale pork cuts have been year-over-year higher,hog prices have increased relatively faster,and processor margins have been squeezed as a result.The rescission of Mexican tariffs on U.S.pork largely prompted upward revisions in U.S.pork export forecasts for both 2019 and 2020.Poultry/Eggs:Second-quarter broiler forecast was revised up based on higher average weights,while the 2020 production forecast was lowered on expectations for higher feed costs.The 2019 and 2020 broiler price forecasts were lowered based on weak domestic demand and higher-than-anticipated cold storage inventories.The 2019 second-quarter export forecast was revised down on slower-than-expected global demand.The 2020 egg production forecast was decreased based on expectations for tightening producer margins.The egg price forecast was decreased for both 2019 and 2020 on the anticipation that supply will continue to outpace demand.The 2019 second-quarter egg and egg product export forecast was revised up based on increasing shipments of shell eggs.Turkey production is revised downward by 5 million pounds in 2019 and 40 million pounds in 2020 due to anticipated increased feed costs.If the forecast is realized,production growth would be virtually flat between 2018 and 2020.3 Livestock,Dairy,and Poultry Outlook,LDP-M-300,June 17,2019 USDA,Economic Research Service Beef/Cattle Russell Knight and Lekhnath Chalise 2019 and 2020 Beef Production Marginally Lower from Last Month The 2019 beef production forecast was reduced marginally from last month to 27.2 billion pounds,as expected fourth-quarter production more than offsets a slight increase in expected second-quarter production.Production in second-quarter 2019 was raised based on greater expected fed cattle slaughter(i.e.,steers and heifers)that was partially offset by lower expected carcass weights.Fourth-quarter 2019 production was lowered on anticipated reduced fed cattle slaughter due to fewer expected placements in second-quarter 2019.The forecast for 2020 beef production was lowered marginally from last months forecast to 27.4 billion pounds,also based on anticipation of fewer fed cattle slaughtered.Feed Prices To Slow Feedlot Placements in Second-Half 2019 According to the May Cattle on Feed report,1 the May 1 cattle-on-feed number increased more than 2 percent from the previous year to 11.8 million head,the largest number of cattle on feed for the month of May since reporting began in 1996.Nearly 7 percent more fed cattle were marketed in April than at the same time last year.When adjusted for the additional weekday of slaughter available compared to April 2018,marketings were only about 2 percent higher in April 2019.Also based on the report,the number of net placements(total placements minus disappearance)of cattle in feedlots was 1.8 million head,which was about 9 percent above the previous years level.The report showed that placements of feeder cattle 800 pounds or heavier in April 2019 as a percentage of total net placements was close to year-earlier levels,which is expected at a time when cattle held on winter pasture in the first quarter would likely be coming off pasture and placed in feedlots.Based on the weekly USDA Agricultural Marketing Service National Feeder&Stocker Cattle Summary reports for the month of May,there were about 25 percent fewer sales receipts compared to the same time last year.Anticipated placements of steers and heifers in feedlots in late 2019 were reduced.Softening fed cattle prices in 2019 and the prospect of higher feed input costs could delay steers and heifers from entering feedlots.This could incentivize keeping lightweight cattle on pasture longer to add weight,which may lead to a more gradual pace of heavier cattle placed on feed so that feedlots will spend less time feeding them to the appropriate finishing weights.The slower pace of placement will likely be reflected in fewer fed cattle to be marketed for slaughter in early 2020.Cattle Prices Decline on Higher Input Prices Since the spring peak,weekly average fed steer prices in the 5-area marketing region have fallen to$113.76 per hundredweight(cwt)for the week ending June 09,2019,about an 11-percent decrease.Based on recent price data and expectations of higher steer and heifer marketings,the price forecast for second-quarter 2019 was lowered$3 to$118 per cwt.Historically,prices drop about 15 percent 1 Of feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.4 Livestock,Dairy,and Poultry Outlook,LDP-M-300,June 17,2019 USDA,Economic Research Service from the seasonal peak,which would suggest that prices will continue to decline into the fall.With expectations of seasonally declining beef prices,the third-quarter 2019 price forecast was lowered$3 to$110 per cwt.As a result,the 2019 annual price is forecast at$117 per cwt,$1.50 lower than last month and just below 2018 price levels.The forecast for the 2020 annual price was lowered by$2 to$119 per cwt.Lower fed cattle prices have turned feedlot margins negative,and higher forecast feed-input prices could make feedlots less willing to bid up prices for feeder cattle for the rest of 2019.Based on recent price data,the second-quarter 2019 feeder steer price was lowered by$3 to$142 per cwt.Faced with continued poor operating margins,the 2019 third-and fourth-quarter price forecasts were each lowered$5 from the prior month to$145 and$142 per cwt,respectively.As a result,this months annual price forecast for 2019 was$4 lower at$142 per cwt.The 2020 annual price forecast was reduced$5 from last months forecast to$145 per cwt as higher forecast feed costs and a lower forecast for fed cattle prices weigh on feedlot margins.Domestic Demand Lifts Import Forecast U.S.beef imports in April 2019 were up 16 percent from year-earlier levels at 273 million pounds.Among major suppliers,higher imports were from Mexico,Australia,New Zealand,Uruguay,and Nicaragua,while imports from Canada and Brazil were lower.The price for imported beef(90-percent lean)in the United States was also higher year-over-year in April 2019,suggesting stronger demand for lean meat for processing.The strong import growth in April resulted in the year-to-date total of 1 billion pounds,6 percent above the same period last year.The forecast for second-quarter beef imports was revised upward by 25 million pounds to 830 million pounds,raising the 2019 annual import forecast to 3.038 billion pounds.The 2020 import forecast is unchanged from the previous months forecast at 2.960 billion pounds.Beef Exports Continue To Lag Year-Ago Levels U.S.beef exports for the month of April were down 4 percent from year-earlier levels,which kept year-to-date exports almost 5 percent below the same period last year(see chart below).There were year-over-year declines in shipments to most of the major destinations,with the exception of South Korea and Taiwan.For the period January through April,most of the declines in U.S.beef exports reflected lower exports to Hong Kong,Canada,and Japan.Exports to Hong Kong have continued to decline year over year,with January to April shipments 44 percent lower compared to the same period last year.Exports to Canada are likely being offset by domestic production;through late-April,weekly federally inspected fed beef production in Canada was 12 percent above 2018.U.S.exports to Japan for January-April were 4 percent below 2018.The decline likely reflects increased competition with other suppliers such as Australia,Canada,and New Zealand,who have been granted tariff concessions under the implementation of the 11-member Pacific trade deal known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.In addition,larger beef production in Australia and Canada has increased their supplies of exportable beef,increasing competition with U.S.product.Nonetheless,through April,the U.S.share of Japans imports was 39 percent,about the same as January-April 2018.5 Livestock,Dairy,and Poultry Outlook,LDP-M-300,June 17,2019 USDA,Economic Research Service FAS weekly sales reports suggest year-over-year higher export sales in May.However,this is not expected to offset the decline in April.On this basis,the second-quarter 2019 export forecast was revised downward by 10 million pounds to 800 million pounds for a 2019 annual forecast of 3.161 billion pounds.The 2020 export forecast was left unchanged from the previous month at 3.245 billion pounds.The 2019 Cattle Imports Revised Upward In April 2019,U.S.cattle imports increased by 29 percent from year-earlier levels to 222,429 head,with gains in imports of feeder cattle contributing two-thirds of the increase.Imports for the period were higher from both Mexico and Canada.Cattle imports for January-April were up 23 percent from the same period last year to 789,514 head,above the 5-year average levels(see chart below).The Mexican cattle herd is an expanding phase,producing more feeder cattle and thus increasing available shipments to the United States.Most of these calves will be for backgrounding.Slaughter-ready cattle imports from Canada were more than 32 percent higher from year-earlier levels in the first 4 months of 2019.20021022023024025026027028029030020182019million poundsSource:USDA,Economic Research Service.U.S.beef exports trend lower in early-20196 Livestock,Dairy,and Poultry Outlook,LDP-M-300,June 17,2019 USDA,Economic Research Service The cattle import forecast for 2019 was revised upward by 15,000 head from the prior month to 2.045 million head based on higher April imports and strong weekly imports reported by USDA,Agricultural Marketing Service.The import forecast for 2020 was unchanged from the previous months forecast of 2.105 million head.100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000220,000240,000260,000201820195-year averageSource:USDA,Economic Research Service.2019 cattle imports above 2018 and 5-year average7 Livestock,Dairy,and Poultry Outlook,LDP-M-300,June 17,2019 USDA,Economic Research Service Dairy Jerry Cessna and Jonathan Law Recent Developments in Dairy Markets From the week ending May 4 to the week ending June 8,price directions for domestic wholesale dairy product prices reported in the USDA National Dairy Products Sales Report were mixed.The largest change was for butter,which rose by 10.0 cents to$2.3488 per pound.While the price for 40-pound blocks of cheddar cheese rose to$1.7094 per pound,the price for 500-pound barrels(adjusted to 38 percent moisture)declined slightly to$1.6227 per pound.The price for nonfat dry milk(NDM)rose to$1.0377 per pound,and the price for dry whey fell to$0.3667 per pound.Dairy wholesale product prices(dollars per pound)For the week ending May 4 June 8 Change Butter 2.2485 2.3488 0.1003 Cheddar cheese 40-pound blocks 1.6884 1.7094 0.0210 500-pound barrels 1 1.6253 1.6227-0.0026 Nonfat dry milk 0.9921 1.0377 0.0456 Dry whey 0.3848 0.3667-0.0181 1 Adjusted to 38-percent moisture.Source:USDA,Agricultural Marketing Service,National Dairy Products Sales Report.For the trading week ending June 7,the average butter price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME)was$2.3745 per pound.The CME cheddar cheese block-barrel spread for the trading week ending June 7 was relatively wide,with average prices for 40-pound blocks and 500-pound barrels of$1.7330 and$1.5110 per pound,respectively.USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service(NASS)estimated that U.S.milk production was 18.430 billion pounds in April,up 0.1 percent from April 2018.NASS reported a revised estimate of 18,873 for March,down-0.6 percent from March 2018.Milk cows in April numbered 9.328 million head,down 1,000 head from a revised estimate of 9.329 million head in March.Milk per cow averaged 65.9 pounds per day in April,1.1 percent higher than April 2018.Dairy cow slaughter has remained above previous-year levels in recent weeks.8 Livestock,Dairy,and Poultry Outlook,LDP-M-300,June 17,2019 USDA,Economic Research Service Dairy exports generally weakened in April.On a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis,they were 776 million pounds,82 million less than March and 284 million less than April 2018.On a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis,exports were 3.431 b