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摩根士丹利-亚太地区-半导体行业-大中华区半导体业:中国TMT会议-2019.8.28-28页.pdf
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摩根士丹利 亚太地区 半导体 行业 中华 中国 TMT 会议 2019.8 28
Charlie.CDaniel.YEric.CJeff.HCautiousMORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+Charlie ChanEQUITY ANALYST+886 2 2730-1725Daniel Yen,CFAEQUITY ANALYST+886 2 2730-2863Eric ChaoEQUITY ANALYST+886 2 2730-1723Jeff HsuRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+886 2 2730-2864Greater China Technology SemiconductorsAsia PacificIndustryViewInvestor PresentationInvestor Presentation|Asia Pacific Asia PacificGreater China Semiconductors:China TMTConferenceMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As aresult,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ofMorgan Stanley Research.Investors should considerMorgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of thisreport.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered withFINRA,may not be associated persons of the member and may notbe subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with asubject company,public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst account.1August 28,2019 01:31 AM GMT2345678910111213Top 8 AlphaWise Findings on the Impact of Trade Tensions on Semi Component Adoption in China1415161718192021222324Disclosure SectionThe information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited(which accepts the responsibility for its contents)and/or Morgan Stanley Asia(Singapore)Pte.(Registration number 199206298Z)and/or Morgan Stanley Asia(Singapore)Securities Pte Ltd(Registration number 200008434H),regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore(which accepts legal responsibility for its contentsand should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from,or in connection with,Morgan Stanley Research),and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley&Co International plc,Seoul Branch,and/or MorganStanley 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affiliates(collectively,Morgan Stanley).For important disclosures,stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report,please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway,(Attention:Research Management),New York,NY,10036 USA.For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation,rating or price target referenced in this research report,please contact the Client Support Team as follows:US/Canada+1 800 303-2495;Hong Kong+8522848-5999;Latin America+1 718 754-5444(U.S.);London+44(0)20-7425-8169;Singapore+65 6834-6860;Sydney+61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.Alternatively you may contact your investment representative orMorgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway,(Attention:Research Management),New York,NY 10036 USA.Analyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation inexchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report:Charlie Chan;Eric Chao;Jeff Hsu;Daniel Yen,CFA.Unless otherwise stated,the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts.Global Research Conflict Management PolicyMorgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy,which is available at Portuguese version of the policy can be found .brImportant US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesAs of July 31,2019,Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1%or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research:Chipbond Technology Corp,Macronix International Co Ltd,MediaTek,Novatek,Parade Technologies Ltd,Phison Electronics Corp,Realtek Semiconductor,Silergy Corp.,UMC,Universal Scientific Ind.(Shanghai),Vanguard International Semiconductor,WIN Semiconductors Corp.In the next 3 months,Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from ASE Technology Holding Co.Ltd.,MediaTek,Nanya Technology Corp.,Shenzhen Goodix Technology CoLtd,Silicon Motion,SMIC,UMC,Universal Scientific Ind.(Shanghai).Within the last 12 months,Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from ASE Technology Holding Co.Ltd.,MediaTek,Nanya Technology Corp.,Novatek,RealtekSemiconductor,Silicon Motion,SMIC,UMC,Universal Scientific Ind.(Shanghai),Winbond Electronics Corp.Within the last 12 months,Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to,or has an investment banking client relationship with,the following company:ASE Technology Holding Co.Ltd.,MediaTek,NanyaTechnology Corp.,Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd,Silicon Motion,SMIC,UMC,Universal Scientific Ind.(Shanghai).Within the last 12 months,Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking,securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship withthe following company:ASE Technology Holding Co.Ltd.,Macronix International Co Ltd,MediaTek,Nanya Technology Corp.,Novatek,Realtek Semiconductor,Silicon Motion,SMIC,TSMC,UMC,Universal Scientific Ind.(Shanghai),Winbond Electronics Corp.Morgan Stanley&Co.LLC makes a market in the securities of ASE Technology Holding Co.Ltd.,Silicon Motion,TSMC,UMC.The equity research analysts or strategists principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research have received compensation based upon various factors,including quality of research,investor client feedback,stockpicking,competitive factors,firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues.Equity Research analysts or strategists compensation is not linked to investment banking or capital markets transactions performed by MorganStanley or the profitability or revenues of particular trading desks.Morgan Stanley and its affiliates do business that relates to companies/instruments covered in Morgan Stanley Research,including market making,providing liquidity,fund management,commercial banking,extension of credit,investment services and investment banking.Morgan Stanley sells to and buys from customers the securities/instruments of companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research on a principal basis.Morgan Stanley may have a positionin the debt of the Company or instruments discussed in this report.Morgan Stanley trades or may trade as principal in the debt securities(or in related derivatives)that are the subject of the debt research report.Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions.STOCK RATINGSMorgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-Rated or Underweight(see definitions below).Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy,Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy,hold and sell.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research.In addition,since Morgan StanleyResearch contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of July 31,2019)The Stock Ratings described below apply to Morgan Stanleys Fundamental Equity Research and do not apply to Debt Research produced by the Firm.For disclosure purposes only(in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements),we include the category headings of Buy,Hold,and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-Rated and Underweight.MorganStanley does not assign ratings of Buy,Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy,hold,and sell but represent recommended relative weightings(seedefinitions below).To satisfy regulatory requirements,we correspond Overweight,our most positive stock rating,with a buy recommendation;we correspond Equal-weight and Not-Rated to hold and Underweight to sellrecommendations,respectively.25COVERAGE UNIVERSEINVESTMENT BANKING CLIENTS(IBC)OTHER MATERIAL INVESTMENTSERVICES CLIENTS(MISC)STOCK RATING CATEGORYCOUNT%OF TOTALCOUNT%OF TOTAL IBC%OF RATINGCATEGORYCOUNT%OF TOTALOTHER MISCOverweight/Buy112436%28142%25%51637%Equal-weight/Hold140545%30946%22%66347%Not-Rated/Hold10%00%0%10%Underweight/Sell57719%7712%13%23316%TOTAL3,1076671413Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings.Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.Due to rounding off ofdecimals,the percentages provided in the%of total column may not add up to exactly 100 percent.Analyst Stock RatingsOverweight(O).The stocks total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analysts industry(or industry teams)coverage universe,on a risk-adjusted basis,over the next 12-18 months.Equal-weight(E).The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analysts industry(or industry teams)coverage universe,on a risk-adjusted basis,over the next 12-18 months.Not-Rated(NR).Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stocks total return relative to the average total return of the analysts industry(or industry teams)coverage universe,on a risk-adjusted basis,over thenext 12-18 months.Underweight(U).The stocks total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analysts industry(or industry teams)coverage universe,on a risk-adjusted basis,over the next 12-18 months.Unless otherwise specified,the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.Analyst Industry ViewsAttractive(A):The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs.the relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.In-Line(I):The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Cautious(C):The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs.the relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each region are as follows:North America-S&P 500;Latin America-relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index;Europe-MSCI Europe;Japan-TOPIX;Asia-relevant MSCI country index or MSCIsub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.Important Disclosures for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC CustomersImportant disclosures regarding the relationship between the companies that are the subject of Morgan Stanley Research and Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC or Morgan Stanley or any of their affiliates,are available on the MorganStanley Wealth Management disclosure website at Morgan Stanley specific disclosures,you may refer to Morgan Stanley Equity Research report is reviewed and approved on behalf of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC.This review and approval is conducted by the same person who reviews the Equity Research report on behalf ofMorgan Stanley.This could create a conflict of interest.Other Important DisclosuresMorgan Stanley&Co.International PLC and its affiliates have a significant financial interest in the debt securities of UMC.Morgan Stanley Research policy is to update research reports as and when the Research Analyst and Research Management deem appropriate,based on developments with the issuer,the sector,or the market that may have amaterial impact on the research views or opinions stated therein.In addition,certain Research publications are intended to be updated on a regular periodic basis(weekly/monthly/quarterly/annual)and will ordinarily be updated withthat frequency,unless the Research Analyst and Research Management determine that a different publication schedule is appropriate based on current conditions.Morgan Stanley is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be,and do not constitute,advice within the meaning of Section 975 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform andConsumer Protection Act.Morgan Stanley produces an equity research product called a Tactical Idea.Views contained in a Tactical Idea on a particular stock may be contrary to the recommendations or views expressed in research on the same stock.This may be the result of differing time horizons,methodologies,market events,or other factors.For all research available on a particular stock,please contact your sales representative or go to Matrix athttp:/ Stanley Research is provided to our clients through our proprietary research portal on Matrix and also distributed electronically by Morgan Stanley to clients.Certain,but not all,Morgan Stanley Research products are alsomade available to clients through third-party vendors or redistributed to clients through alternate electronic means as a convenience.For access to all available Morgan Stanley Research,please contact your sales representative or goto Matrix at http:/ access and/or use of Morgan Stanley Research is subject to Morgan Stanleys Terms of Use(http:/ accessing and/or using Morgan Stanley Research,you are indicating that you haveread and agree to be bound by our Terms of Use(http:/ addition you consent to Morgan Stanley processing your personal data and using 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