February14,201909:03PMGMTHans.Redeker@morganstanley.comJames.Lord@morganstanley.comSheena.Shah@morganstanley.comGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.comFilip.Denchev@morganstanley.comAndres.Jaime@morganstanley.comDavid.S.Adams@morganstanley.comIoana.Zamfir@morganstanley.comAndrew.Watrous@morganstanley.comMin.Dai@morganstanley.comChun.Him.Cheung@morganstanley.comBelle.Chang@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLCHansWRedekerSTRATEGIST+44207425-2430JamesKLordSTRATEGIST+44207677-3254SheenaShahSTRATEGIST+44207677-6457GekTengKhooSTRATEGIST+44207425-3842FilipDenchevSTRATEGIST+44207677-3166MORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCAndresJaimeSTRATEGIST+1212296-5570DavidS.Adams,CFASTRATEGIST+1212761-1481IoanaZamfirSTRATEGIST+1212761-4012AndrewMWatrousSTRATEGIST+1-212-761-5287MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITEDMinDaiSTRATEGIST+8522239-7983ChunHimCheungSTRATEGIST+8522239-1261BelleChangSTRATEGIST+8523963-0668FXOverviewJPYandBoJRinbanPurchasesStrategicFXPortfolio;G10&EMCurrencySummaryCentralBankWatch;GlobalEventRiskCalendarFXForecastsCorrection:FXPulseCorrection:FXPulse||GlobalGlobalABouquetofRisksWehavemadecorrectionstotheforecasttableonpage29.ThisnotewasoriginallypublishedonFeb14,2019,andisbeingrepublishedonFeb15,2019.Pricingdataanddisclosuresreflectoriginalpublicationdate.Toreceiveanelectroniccopyoftheoriginalversionofthispublicationpleasesendane-mailtoEquity_Research_Publishing@morganstanley.comwithpublicationtitleanddate.Marketsappearcomplacent…Themarketseemspositionedforrisk-on.ArecentsurveyshowedlongEMisthemostcrowdedtradeforassetmanagers.TheDailySentimentIndexshows78%oftradersarebullishontheS&P500–thehighestlevelsinceSeptember–andourGRDI*isnearing+2.CumulativeIGinflowsarethehighestYTDin10years....buttheriskoutlookisfarfromrosy:ItmaybeValentine'sDay,butthingsdonotlookrosytous.The"growth/inflation"tradeoffincreasinglyfavorsthelatteragainsttheformer–apoorrecipeforrisk.TheprobabilityofanoutrightUSearningsrecessionisrising,Decemberretailsalesdatafellsharply,andUScapexandactivitydatashowsignsofslowi...
