摩根士丹利-全球-石油与天然气行业-全球天然气：如果美国和中国达成一项贸易协议会怎样？-2019.6.11-44页 (2).pdf

GLOBAL FOUNDATIONMGlobal Gas What if the US and China Reach a Trade Deal?Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered with FINRA,may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.If the US and China reach a trade deal,it could include a large Chinese purchase of US LNG.We believe this would be a win-win outcome for China and the US,but could add long-term headwinds to natural gas growth for Russia and Australia.June 11,2019 09:00 PM GMTGLOBAL FOUNDATIONMMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Andy Meng,CFAEquity Analyst+852 2239-7689Andy.M Contributors MORGAN STANLEY&CO.LLCDevin McDermottEquity Analyst and Commodities Strategist+1 212 761-1125Devin.McDMORGAN STANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONAL PLC+Igor KuzminEquity Analyst and Commodities Strategist+44 20 7425-8371Igor.KMORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED+Adam MartinEquity Analyst+61 3 9256-8904Adam.MMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Simon H.Y.Lee,CFAEquity Analyst+852 2848-1985Simon.LMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Kevin Luo,CFAEquity Analyst+852 2239-1527Kevin.LMORGAN STANLEY&CO.LLCDrew Venker,CFAEquity Analyst+1 212 761-3729Drew.VMORGAN STANLEY&CO.LLCStephen C ByrdEquity Analyst+1 212 761-3865Stephen.BMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Beryl WangResearch Associate+852 3963-3643Beryl.WMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jack LuEquity Analyst+852 2848-5044Jack.LMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Albert LiResearch Associate+852 3963-3610Albert.LGLOBAL FOUNDATIONMSinopec,ENN,China Gas and CIMC Enric potentially to benefit most in Asia:Thanks to the large LNG imports from the US,those companies are likely to benefit thanks to:1)higher gas sales volumes;2)cheaper feedstock costs;and 3)better gas equipment demand.Cheniere and Sempra could benefit in the US:In the US,Cheniere and Sempra could see additional LNG development projects advance,increasing long-term earnings and cash flow.We also believe XOM could potentially execute sales agreements for its Golden Pass facility.Another wave of US LNG volume growth could also put slight upward pressure from 2025 on US natural gas prices(though they would likely remain below US$3/MMBtu),benefitting natural gas E&Ps and XOM relative to a no trade deal scenario.Gazprom and Woodside potentially would face some headwinds,but only in the long term:If the US is taking a bigger market share of LNG demand in China,it could lead to a lower appetite for gas from Russia and Australia.However,we think such a change would be unlikely to introduce any material fundamental impact in the next 2-3 years.It is more likely to reduce the possibility of them securing large new projects after 2023,in our view.What if there is no trade deal between the US and China?We think China would be unlikely to import LNG in any large amount from the US.As a result,China would be more likely to import LNG from existing suppliers,including Russia and Australia,making Gazprom and Woodside key beneficiaries.Global Gas What if the US and China Reach a Trade Deal?If the US and China reach a trade deal,it could include a large Chinese purchase of US LNG.We believe this would be a win-win outcome for China and the US,but could add long-term headwinds to natural gas growth for Russia and Australia.China has a strong appetite for LNG:On the back of Chinas strong policy support for energy mix optimization,we believe the country will achieve rapid gas consumption growth in 2019-2025 at 8-10%the highest pace of growth globally.Meanwhile,as Chinas local gas production cannot satisfy such rapid demand growth,the import reli-ance ratio will continue to increase,implying strong appetite for LNG.In 2018,Chinas LNG import volume posted 40%growth to 53mn tons and we expect it to reach 111mn tons by 2025,making it the largest LNG importer globally.Abundant low-cost gas in the US means it is well positioned to meet additional demand globally:US natural gas prices have remained low despite a prolonged period of structural demand growth due to innovation across shale,which has substantially driven down supply costs.We think this growth cycle is coming to a close as we see a period of demand stagnation post-2020,while supply growth,driven by gas associated with oil production,shows no sign of slowing.The result is an oversupplied market and structur-ally depressed prices,well suited for additional LNG exports.In May 2019,the US Henry Hub gas price averaged US$2.58/mmbtu,a 38%discount to EU and 49%discount to Asian natural gas prices.A large Chinese purchase of US LNG could be a win-win deal:If China procures 75%of its incremental LNG needs from the US by 2025(40 MTPA),it could reduce the trade deficit by US$17bn annually.Meanwhile,given US gas prices are very competitive,such a purchase could save China US$1.8bn/year in annual energy costs relative to other sources of supply -a win-win transaction for both China and the US,in our view.GLOBAL FOUNDATIONM4 Contents 5What Could a US-China Trade Deal Mean For the Global Gas Industry?12China:The Anchor of Global Natural Gas Demand Growth17What If US-China Trade Deal is Settled with a Large LNG Contract?Potentially a Win-Win Deal.23US Natural Gas:Adequate Low-Cost Supply;Several Stocks Could Benefit33Russia:Upside risks challenged35Australia:Is the next wave of expansion at risk?36China:Which companies could benefit from US gas imports?38What if there is no Trade Deal,and no major LNG imports from the US?39Natural Gas Value Chain-2018GLOBAL FOUNDATIONMMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH5The ultimate outcome of the US and China trade dispute remains uncertain.However,as illustrated in Exhibit 1,our global economics team has postulated three possible results of the current trade ten-sions,their impact on global growth and the policy responses:1.Temporary escalation:The 25%tariffs remain in place for a rela-tively short period of time(3-4 weeks),talks continue and both sides continue to make progress towards a deal.Chinas easing measures(US$250 billion fiscal stimulus)remain intact,the Fed stays on hold,and policy support helps the global economy to gradually recover back towards trend.2.Extended escalation:Tariffs stay in place for longer(3-4 months)as the differences in negotiating stance are more serious than previously thought.Even though talks continue,corporate con-fidence takes a major hit for the second time in six months.Downward pressures on growth build.In response,policy-makers in What Could a US-China Trade Deal Mean For the Global Gas Industry?China ease both monetary and fiscal policy further while the Fed,on the back of tightening financial conditions,cuts rates by an initial 50bp to cushion the impact on growth.China and US growth weakens by 20bp and 30bp,respectively relative to the base line,even after the policy response.Overall,global growth decelerates from 3.2%Y in 1Q19 to 2.7-2.9%Y in 3Q19,but the global economy avoids recession(just barely).3.No deal:Talks stall and no deal is agreed upon.The US imposes tariffs on all China imports and China responds by imposing 25%tar-iffs on all US imports while restricting SOE purchases from the US.With this shock to the global economy,even though the Fed cuts rates all the way to zero by spring 2020 and China embarks on aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus,these measures cant pre-vent a global recession i.e.,growth dips below the 2.5%Y recession threshold.Exhibit 1:Trade scenarios:Impacts and policy responsesSource:Morgan Stanley Research forecastsGLOBAL FOUNDATIONM6For more details,please refer to the report:Global Macro Mid-Year Outlook:Policy Dominates the Cycle(12 May 2019)As temporary escalation and extended escalation both imply that there will be a deal,we believe the three scenarios for the global macro imply two scenarios for the gas industry:1.The US and China ultimately reach a trade deal;or 2.No deal reached between the US and China.Based on these two different scenarios,we analyze the fundamentals and stock impacts,attempting to identify potential winners and losers.If a deal is reached,we expect China to agree to import a large amount of LNG(liquefied natural gas)to help balance the trade deficit between the two countries.Assuming China procures 75%of its LNG needs from the US,US LNG import volumes into China would rise 42 mn tons by 2025.As a result,the US share of LNG imports into China would increase significantly from 4%in 2018 to 40%in 2025,becoming the largest LNG importing source for China,followed by Australia,Qatar and Russia.As illustrated in Exhibit 2,this would benefit US LNG suppliers by supporting additional project development with potentially better margins than a no deal scenario,while putting competitive pressure on Russian pipeline imports of natural gas into China.Meanwhile,the gas equipment sector in China would be likely to enjoy stronger demand to ship the imported LNG and construct the necessary domestic infrastructure.Without a deal,China would likely turn to other countries,such as Russia,Australia and the Middle East,to fulfill its gas demand.There is still sufficient supply under this scenario,though the import cost would likely be higher than it would be for US natural gas.Exhibit 2:Fundamental Impacts from a Potential US-China Trade DealImpact in ChinaScenario 1:A DealScenario 2:No DealLNG FlowLarge portion of incremental LNG import will come from US.Incremental LNG import will come from other countries.LNG PriceLower-diluted by more US LNG which is the cheapest imported LNG Higher-less imported LNG from US,a cheaper sourceLNG MarginHigher-due to lower imported LNG average priceLower-due to higher imported LNG average pricePipeline Gas PriceLess Competitive-due to lower LNG priceMore Competitive-due to higher LNG pricePipeline Gas MarginMore pressure-from lower LNG priceLess Pressure-from higher LNG priceGas EquipmentStronger Demand-to ship more LNG from US importStable Demand-pipeline import likely to take shareSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchGLOBAL FOUNDATIONMMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH7Exhibit 3:Comparison in LNG import Cost for total China incremental demand under two scenarios-China LNG import cost is lower under A Deal scenarioAs of Feb 2019US$/MMBtuUS$/tonChina LNG import cost from US in Feb-199.06 440.27 China LNG import cost in 201810.19 495.43 US$mnTotal import cost-Under A Deal3,940 5,361 6,939 11,366 15,134 19,212 23,559 Total import cost-Under No Deal4,251 5,784 7,487 12,263 16,329 20,729 25,420 Difference on the import cost(311)(423)(548)(898)(1,195)(1,517)(1,860)US$/MMBtuUS$/tonAverage import cost-Under A Deal9.34 454.06 Average import cost-Under No Deal10.08 489.92 Based on US$8/MMBtuUS$/MMBtuUS$/tonChina LNG import cost from US8.00 388.80 China LNG import cost in 201810.19 495.43 US$mnTotal import cost-Under A Deal3,605 4,905 6,349 10,400 13,848 17,579 21,556 Total import cost-Under No Deal4,206 5,723 7,409 12,135 16,158 20,511 25,152 Difference on the import cost(601)(818)(1,059)(1,735)(2,310)(2,933)(3,596)US$/MMBtuUS$/tonAverage import cost-Under A Deal8.55 415.46 Average import cost-Under No Deal9.97 484.77 Note:The incremental import volume is based on our estimated China total incremental LNG demand.Source:General Administration of Customs,CEIC,Morgan Stanley Estimates.Deal or No Deal?Under any outcome,we do not expect Chinese companies to break any existing LNG supply contracts.In our analysis,we assume that all the existing long-term contracts will remain in place and that the out-come of trade negotiations will only impact how China sources its incremental LNG needs.As Chinas gas demand growth is looking relatively stable from 2019-2025,we forecast total LNG demand to reach 111mn tons in 2025,made up of 59mn tons from contracted LNG demand and 52mn tons from uncontracted LNG demand,which can be allocated to any sources.Under A Deal scenario,we forecast the US to take 75%of this incre-mental uncontracted LNG demand(excluding existing long-term contracted volume),followed by Russia.However,under a No Deal scenario,we forecast the US to take only 10%of incremental orders,while Russia and Australia will take 50%and 20%,respectively.More details are illustrated in Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 7.GLOBAL FOUNDATIONM8Exhibit 4:LNG volume allocation-A Deal scenario01020304050602019202020212022202320242025mtpa Other countriesAustraliaRussiaUSSource:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 6:Shares of Import Sources-A Deal scenarioUS 75%Russia 14%Australia 10%Other countries 1%Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 5:LNG volume allocation-No Deal scenario01020304050602019202020212022202320242025mtpa Other countriesAustraliaRussiaUSSource:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 7:Shares of Import Sources-No Deal scenarioUS 10%Russia 50%Australia 20%Other countries 20%Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesGLOBAL FOUNDATIONMMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH9At the industry level,we believe A Deal will be positive for:1)downstream gas distributors;2)gas equipment manufacturers;3)companies with LNG terminals and extra capacity,4)companies who can sign new LNG import contracts with the US at competitive prices.Meanwhile,A Deal also implies negative impact on:1)companies focused on pipeline imports into China;2)existing LNG importers with expensive long-term contracts;and 3)local gas liquefaction businesses.Exhibit 8:Stock Impacts from a Potential US-China Trade DealIndustries/CompaniesScenario 1:A DealScenario 2:No DealIndustries Downstream gas distributorsPositive:cheaper gas supply,better demand growth outlookNeutral:No impact vs.the latest industry statusGas equipment manufacturersPositive:Higher demand of gas equipment to ship imported LNGNeutral:Limited impactGas pipeline companyNegative:Pipeline likely to lose sharePositive:Pipeline likely to gain shareCompanies with LNG terminal and extra capacityPositive:Higher utilization of LNG terminalNeutral:Limited impactCompanies signing large LNG contract with US at and more competitive pricePositive:Enjoy cheaper cost advantage and good demand in ChinaNegative:Existing US import is likely to face tariff risk Existing LNG importer with expensive long-term contracts on handNegative:Cost disadvantage likely to be enlarged due to cheaper incremental supply Positive:No cost threat from the incremental gas supplyLocal gas liquefaction businessNegative:More demand for US LNG import,less for local gas liquefactionPositive:Higher demand of local gas liquefactionStocksPetroChina(857.HK)Can benefit only if PetroChina sign majo