麦格理-美股-银行业-综合银行：把风暴赶出去-2019.1.1-24页.pdfVIP免费

Pleaserefertopage21forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsitewww.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.7January2019UnitedStatesEQUITIESEstimateRevisionsSource:MacquarieCapital(USA),January2019UniversalBanks’StockPerformanceSource:FactSet,MacquarieCapital(USA),January2019AnalystsMacquarieCapital(USA)Inc.DavidKonrad,CFA+12122310525david.konrad@macquarie.comJackWalsh+12122311840jack.walsh@macquarie.comUniversalBanksRidin’thestormout–UpgradingCtoOP;DowngradingBACtoNKeypointsConcernsofglobalgrowthandtradewarshavedrivenstockslowerin4Q18.Thisrisk-offenvironmenthasledtowideningvaluationgapsUpgradingCtoOP,tradingat89%ofTBVdespiteexpectationsof20%TBVgrowththrough4Q20duetobuybacksandpotentialbenefitfromcardrepricingWearedowngradingBACtoNduetoapremiumvaluation,exposuretoflatteningcurveandlessexpenseleveragegoingforwardEventItwasabrutalendto2019,asuniversalbankstocksweredownapproximately19%in4Q,underperformingtheS&Pby500bps.Althoughpotentialpeakearningsconcernsinitiallyweighedthegroup,thedowndraftgainedsteamduetoglobaleconomicgrowthandgeopoliticaluncertainty.Themarketvolatilityledtoamaterialslowdownforunderwritingandachoppytradingenvironmentledbydeclinesinprimebrokerageashedgefundsde-levered.Asaresult,weareloweringestimatesacrosstheboardforthequarter.Universalbankvaluationshavereachedamulti-yearlowat8.3x2019E,whichis56%oftheS&Pmultiplevs.near70%historically.Moreover,CitiandGSarenowtradingbelowcurrentTBVwhileMSistradingonlymodestlyaboveourforwardTBVestimate.Thisrisk-offenvironmenthasledtooutperformanceforJPMandBAC,leadingtoawideningvaluationgapandachangeinourinvestmentthesis.WeareupgradingCititoOP(fromN)anddowngradingBACtoN(fromOP).ImpactTimetogototheCiti.WeareupgradingCititoOP,partlyduetovaluationcoupledwithoutsizedbuybacksandabilitytoimproveyieldsincardsdespiteamorechallengingrateenvironment.Thestockunderperformedpeersin2018,down27%versusthegroup-19%,drivinga13%discounttopeers.Thestockistradingat89%ofTBVdespiteexcesscapitalandexpectedreturnsonc...