麦格理-印度-宏观经济-宏观数据全面增长——内需保持健康-20180221-16页.pdf

Please refer to page 14 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website Key data releases(Jan-18 vs Dec-17)Source:CEIC,GoI,Macquarie Research,February 2018*IP current month is Dec-17 and previous is Nov-17#CAD current is for QE Sep-17,previous is QE Jun-17 Analyst(s)Upasana Chachra+91 22 6720 4355 21 February 2018 Macquarie Capital Securities(India)Pvt.Ltd.India Economics Macro data round-up domestic demand remains healthy In this monthly publication we endeavour to provide a one-stop shop for all key macro data releases in the month,along with a chart pack of key macro indicators to track.Growth indicators:Cyclical recovery in domestic demand Domestic demand indicators fared better than external demand:Highfrequency domestic demand indicators continue to show healthy growth in thelast three months suggesting that growth recovery is gathering momentum.Consumption indicators such as car sales,petrol consumption,retail loangrowth and air passenger traffic accelerated in Jan Manufacturing indicators remained robust IP growth for Dec was above expectations.PMI manufacturing for Jan remained above 50 for the sixth consecutive months,but it moderated from the five-year high reached in Dec.Cement production growth remained in double digits for the second consecutive month.Light commercial vehicle sales growth accelerated to the highest since Mar-2010.Services indicators too improved PMI services expanded in Jan,while other indicators such as rail and sea port cargo continued to improve.Export growth slows in Jan:Export growth slipped to single digits in Jan,growing by 9.1%YoY(vs.12.5%YoY in Dec).Lacklustre non-commodityexport growth mainly caused the slowdown in growth with segments suchas gems&jewellery,textiles,electronic goods contributing to the slowdown.Macro stability:Widening at the margin Trade deficit widens to a 56-month high:The trade deficit widened toUS$16.3bn(8.1%of GDP annualised)in Jan from US$14.8bn(7.4%of GDPannualised)in Dec as imports rose faster than exports.The higher than expectedtrade deficit in Jan puts upward pressure on the current account deficit forFY18 we expect the CAD to widen to 1.8-2%of GDP vs.our earlier estimateof 1.6%of GDP in FY18.Inflation moderated in Jan,but CPI still above the 5%mark:Jan CPImoderated to 5.1%(5.2%in Dec)with food prices decelerating.Jan WPIinflation decelerated to 2.8%from 3.6%in Dec,with both food and non-foodsegments moderating.Outlook Gradual recovery keeping macro stability in check:We expect the growthrecovery to gradually gather pace,and we expect GDP growth at 7.2%inFY19e from 6.7%in FY18e.We expect consumption,public capex andexports to be the main drivers even as private capex remains in repair mode.Inflation is expected to edge higher until Jun-18,partly due to a low base.We expect the RBI to take into the account the idiosyncratic factors impactinginflation and a still-nascent growth recovery,which should keep the centralbank on hold.Pls see the following pages for heat map tables and charts.Macquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 2 High frequency growth indicators and macro stability indictors Fig 1 High frequency growth data(green highlight is top 10 percentile and red highlight is bottom 10 percentile)Source:CEIC,PPAC,RBI,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 2 High frequency macro stability indicators(red highlight is top 10 percentile and green highlight is bottom 10 percentile i.e.green shows improvement in macro stability,red shows deterioration in macro stability)Source:CEIC,Bloomberg,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Macquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 3 Growth Indicators A.Industrial Production Trend in IP(YoY%,YoY%3MMA)Industrial production rose 7.1%in Jan:This compares to a growth of 8.8%in Nov.On a seasonally adjusted sequential basis,the IP index declined by 2.4%compared to growth of 6.3%MoM in Nov.Nominal IP growth(adjusted for non-food WPI)remained on an uptrend on a trailing three month average basis.While growth of capital goods and electricity production improved,growth of manufacturing,mining,construction and consumer goods production slowed in Dec.On a three-month trailing basis,growth accelerated to 6%in Dec vs.5.0%for the three months ending Nov.Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 B.Export Growth Trend in export growth Export growth slips to single-digit levels:Export growth slowed to 9.1%YoY in Jan from 12.5%YoY in Dec.The slowdown in exports was mainly attributable to a poorer performance in non-commodity exports.While commodity export growth rose to 23.9%in Jan(21.6%in Dec),non-commodity export growth decelerated to 4.6%(from 9.8%in Dec).Within non-commodity exports,the slowdown was attributable to a weaker trend in exports of gems&jewellery,textiles,leather,electronic goods and engineering goods.We will be closely watching the trend in non-commodity exports as despite a healthy global growth environment,non-commodity exports have remained volatile,in part due to the lingering impact of GST-related disruptions(i.e.issues of tax credit refunds have impacted exporters working capital).Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 C.Import Growth Trend in import growth Import growth accelerated to an eight-month high in Jan:Import growth accelerated to 26.1%YoY in Jan from 21%YoY in Dec,led by higher oil and non-oil non-gold imports.Gold imports declined on a YoY basis.Oil import growth accelerated on YoY and sequential monthly bases reflecting in part the impact of trailing higher oil prices.Non-oil non-gold import growth accelerated in Jan with the volatile capital goods imports accelerating.Commodity imports such as imports of edible oils,coal,coke,and metalliferous ores rose.Amongst other segments imports of chemicals and related products,rubber/tin,iron and steel rose.Gold imports declined on YoY and sequential bases in Jan,with the monthly run rate slowing to US$1.6bn in Jan from approx.US$3.2bn in the last two months.Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018-1%1%3%5%7%9%Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17YoY%YoY%3MMAMacquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 4 Macro Stability Indicators A.CPI Trend in CPI CPI inflation slowed to 5.1%January:This compared to 5.2%in December and was in line with our and consensus expectations of 5.1%.The adverse base effect is expected to keep inflation in the elevated range.On a sequential basis,food prices declined in Jan while fuel prices rose.Indeed,core CPI(ex food,fuel,petrol and diesel)was steady at 5.3%,while core ex housing decelerated marginally,reflecting the statistical impact of the house rent allowance increase(as part of the 7th pay commission).Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 B.WPI Trend in WPI Jan WPI inflation moderated to a six-month low:Jan WPI inflation decelerated to 2.8%from 3.6%in Dec.The deceleration in inflation was led by lower prices of food,while core inflation measures rose.Food inflation slowed to 1.6%YoY in Jan from 3%YoY in Dec led by lower prices of pulses and vegetables.Fuel inflation slowed on a YoY basis,while it rose on a sequential basis.Non-food non-fuel inflation accelerated to 3.2%in Jan from 2.9%in Dec,mainly due to higher global commodity prices.Core inflation(manufactured non-food index)also rose to 3.5%in Jan from 3.2%in Dec.Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 C.Trade Deficit Trend in trade deficit Trade deficit widens to a 56-month high:The trade deficit widened to US$16.3bn(8.1%of GDP annualised)in Jan from US$14.9bn(7.4%of GDP annualised)in Dec as imports rose faster than exports.On a YoY basis,the trade deficit rose by 64.6%YoY in Jan from 40.5%in Dec.The higher commodity prices are being reflected in a higher trade deficit,which has risen to 6.4%of GDP on a 12-month trailing basis vs.4.5 of GDP for 12 months ending Jan-17.The higher than expected trade deficit in Jan puts upward pressure on the current account deficit for FY18 we expect the CAD to widen to 2%of GDP vs.our earlier estimate of 1.6%of GDP.Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Macquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 5 Growth Indicators Fig 3 Passenger vehicle sales improved in Jan Fig 4 Two-wheeler sales moderated in Jan Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 5 Light CV sales performed better than M&H in Jan Fig 6 Trend in industrial production growth improving Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 7 PMI(mfg)rose to a five-year high Fig 8 Trend in core industries Cement production remains in double digit for second month in a row Source:Bloomberg,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Macquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 6 Fig 9 Trend in rail freight Fig 10 Trend in seaport cargo Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 11 Trend in air cargo Fig 12 Trend in air passenger traffic Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 13 Trend in foreign tourist arrivals Fig 14 Telecom subscribers Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 -15%-11%-7%-3%1%5%9%13%17%21%Dec-11Dec-12Dec-13Dec-14Dec-15Dec-16Dec-17YoY%YoY%3MMA-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Dec-11Dec-12Dec-13Dec-14Dec-15Dec-16Dec-17YoY%YoY%3MMA-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18YoY%YoY%3MMA0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%900950100010501100115012001250Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Subscribers(mn)YoY%,RSMacquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 7 Fig 15 Trend in export and import growth Fig 16 Commodity vs.non-commodity exports Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 17 Import growth by key segments Fig 18 Trend in capital goods imports Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 19 Trend in export market share Fig 20 Export growth influences IP Source:CEIC,WTO,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 -30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18ExportsImportsYoY%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15Sep-15Nov-15Jan-16Mar-16May-16Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Commodity exportsNon commodity exportsYoY%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Oil ImportsNon-oil non-gold ImportsGold Imports,RSYoY%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18YoY%YoY%3MMA1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%Dec-07Jun-08Dec-08Jun-09Dec-09Jun-10Dec-10Jun-11Dec-11Jun-12Dec-12Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-176M trailing12M trailingSome improvement inmarket share in 2017-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Nominal IP(Non FoodWPI),YoY%3MMAExports,YoY%3MMA,RSMacquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 8 Macro Stability Indicators Price Stability Fig 21 Trend in CPI inflation Fig 22 Trend in WPI inflation Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 23 WPI seasonally adjusted vs.WPI YoY Fig 24 Global commodity prices vs.Non-food WPI Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Bloomberg,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 25 Trend in global commodity prices(YoY%)Fig 26 Trend in global commodity prices(Indexed)Source:Bloomberg,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:Bloomberg,Macquarie Research,February 2018 -2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Headline CPI inflationCore CPI Inflation(CPI ex Food exFuel)CPI Food inflationYoY%-9%-6%-3%0%3%6%9%Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18WPI InflationFood(primary plus mfg)inflationNon-food WPI inflationYoY%-10%-6%-2%2%6%10%Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18WPI,YoY%WPI SA MoM annualized,6MMA pushedfwd by 6months-10%-8%-5%-3%0%3%5%8%10%13%15%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18CRB CommodityNon food WPI Inflation,RSYoY%YoY%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Feb-05Feb-06Feb-07Feb-08Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Brent(YoY%)CRB Commodity(YoY%)20406080100120140Feb-14May-14Aug-14Nov-14Feb-15May-15Aug-15Nov-15Feb-16May-16Aug-16Nov-16Feb-17May-17Aug-17Nov-17Feb-18Brent,RSCRB FoodCRB CommodityIndexed Jan 2014=100Macquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 9 Fig 27 Trend in high frequency food prices Fig 28 Trend in rural wage growth Source:Dept.of Consumer Affairs,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 29 Trend in MSP vs.food inflation Fig 30 Farmers terms of trade Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018*CPI food inflation estimated for FY18 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 31 Household inflation expectations Fig 32 CPI inflation outlook Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 -4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug SepOctNov Dec201620175 Y avg2018High frequency food prices(MoM%)0%5%10%15%20%25%Nov-05Nov-06Nov-07Nov-08Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Nov-12Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Rural Farm WagesTotal Rural WagesYoY%3MMA0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18*MSP increase(average all crops)CPI food inflationYoY%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17WPI ToT YoY%3MMA*Index constructured using WPI Food to WPI non Food0246810121416Dec-06Jun-07Dec-07Jun-08Dec-08Jun-09Dec-09Jun-10Dec-10Jun-11Dec-11Jun-12Dec-12Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Inflation Expectations-3MAheadInflation Expectations-12MAhead12M Trailing CPI8%6%5%4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Mar-13Jul-13Nov-13Mar-14Jul-14Nov-14Mar-15Jul-15Nov-15Mar-16Jul-16Nov-16Mar-17Jul-17Nov-17Mar-18Jul-18Nov-18Mar-19CPICore CPIRBIs glide pathForecastsMacquarie Research India Economics 21 February 2018 10 Macro Stability Indicators External Stability Fig 33 Trend in trade deficit Fig 34 Trend in current account deficit Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 35 Trend in external debt Fig 36 Trend in net international investment position Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Fig 37 Trend in FX reserves Fig 38 Trend in import cover Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018 Source:CEIC,Macquarie Research,February 2018-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%-18,000-16,000-14,000-12,000-10,000-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,0000Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Trade Balance,US$mn,LSMonthly Trade balance(%of GDPannua