麦格理-海南：政策利好前景乐观（消费旅游）-2019.1.28-52页.pdf

Please refer to page 50 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website January 2019 China EQUITIES Inside HK/China consumer valuation table 2 HK/China consumer valuation table(cont)3 Introduction to Hainan 4 Pilot Free Trade Zone brings in new opportunities 9 Duty-free policy relaxation continues 11 Building an international tourism and consumption centre 17 China Intl Travel Service(A-Share)19 Sun Art Retail Group 30 MacVisit:Songcheng Performance Development 34 MacVisit:Fosun Tourism Group 38 MacVisit:Haichang Ocean Park 42 MacVisit:Regal International Airport 46 Analysts Macquarie Capital Limited Linda Huang,CFA +852 3922 4068 Terence Chang +852 3922 3581 Sunny Chow +852 3922 3768 Cici Yu +86 21 2412 9078 Hugo Shen +86 21 2412 9077 China consumer tour takeaways Hainan:positive outlook with policy tailwinds Key points FTZ brings in new opportunities,while duty-free policy relaxation continues.Diversifying tourism products and improving transportation facilities could attract more tourists.CITS could be a major beneficiary.Conclusion We hosted a visit to Hainan and met with companies/experts in the duty-free shopping,tourism/leisure,retail and airport sectors.Overall we see a positive outlook for Hainan with the policy tailwinds from the Pilot Free Trade Zone(FTZ)and offshore duty-free quota relaxation,while diversifying tourism products and improving transportation facilities could continue to attract tourists.We believe CITS could be a major beneficiary with expected consolidation in the offshore duty-free market.Impact FTZ brings in new opportunities,while duty-free policy relaxation continues.As the largest FTZ in China,Hainan FTZ has been introducing a great number of preferential policies to attract capital,enterprises,and talent,both domestic and from overseas,and has already seen some positive feedback.Its ultimate goal is to become a Free Port.As for duty-free shopping,sales has experienced positive growth after the latest round of quota raise,while the openings of two new DFS could make further contributions.The continuous policy relaxation supports our view that the government aims to develop Hainan into a duty-free shopping mecca.Diversifying tourism products and improving transportation facilities could attract more tourists.To best utilize its abundant tourism resources,Hainan has been diversifying its tourism product offerings.While traditional entertainment sites and performance shows maintain their momentum,premium-oriented sites like Atlantis Sanya have started to welcome visitors.New products in health tourism,cultural/digital tourism,meetings,incentives,conferences and exhibitions(MICE),and sports tourism are gaining more attention.In terms of transportation,Hainan is expanding its airport capacities with expansion/upgrades to old airports and construction of new airports,while rail/highway transport is developing fast.CITS could be a major beneficiary.From our site visits and expert meetings,we maintain our positive view on China International Travel Service(CITS).We think its Sanya DFS could benefit from the quota relaxation,while expected share injection from Hainan Duty Free could allow CITS to gain control over all four DFS in Hainan.We believe CITS can maintain a favourable position in the offshore duty-free market at least in the mid-term.Outlook We maintain our cautious view on the consumer sector and suggest investors wait for downward consensus earnings revisions to be completed.Top sells:Hengan,Dali,CRB,Samsonite;top buy:CITS.We also suggest revisiting China Modern Dairy,Want Want,Yili,WH Group.每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。Macquarie Research China consumer tour takeaways 28 January 2019 2 HK/China consumer valuation table Fig 1 HK/China consumer valuation table(1)Company Code Price Rating TP Upside Mkt Cap P/E(X)P/B(X)ROE(%)EPS Growth(%)PEG Div yield(%)FCF yield(%)(lcy/sh)(lcy/sh)(%)US$m 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E Department stores Golden Eagle 3308 HK 8.26 OP 11.70 42%1,781 10.8 9.9 1.9 1.7 17.7 17.8-13.2 8.8 1.1 4.4 4.8 5.4 0.4 Lifestyle 1212 HK 11.74 OP 17.50 49%2,182 10.0 9.0 3.9 3.2 42.5 39.3 38.8 11.0 0.8 5.4 5.4 10.3 8.6 Luxury Samsonite 1910 HK 22.10 UP 18.40-17%4,031 19.3 17.2 2.2 2.1 15.4 13.5 5.7-8.3-2.1 2.0 2.2-1.1 1.9 Prada 1913 HK 25.05 OP 43.00 72%7,909 20.9 18.5 2.3 2.2 11.6 12.1 39.1 12.7 1.5 3.4 3.8 4.8 4.0 Chow Tai Fook 1929 HK 6.50 Neutral 5.70-12%8,068 15.9 14.8 1.9 1.9 12.6 12.9 36.3 7.3 2.0 8.8 5.0-3.0 4.3 Luk Fook 590 HK 22.35 UP 18.80-16%1,669 9.6 9.0 1.3 1.2 14.5 14.0 34.8 7.0 1.3 4.0 4.9 3.0 0.3 Chow SangSang 116 HK 11.28 OP 22.70 101%934 6.8 6.0 0.7 0.6 10.6 11.2 46.7 14.3 0.4 5.9 6.6 15.6 15.6 Lao Feng Xiang 600612 CH 42.11 OP 62.00 47%2,714 15.0 13.0 3.2 2.8 23.0 22.9 13.8 15.2 0.9 2.4 2.9-15.9 30.5 Sportswear Anta Sports 2020 HK 37.45 OP 42.00 12%12,507 21.1 17.6 5.6 5.0 28.3 30.1 33.3 20.0 0.9 3.6 4.4 3.9 4.5 Li Ning 2331 HK 9.42 Neutral 9.20-2%2,709 28.3 21.8 3.4 2.9 12.7 14.5 33.9 30.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.5 Cosmetics SaSa 178 HK 2.78 Neutral 2.80 1%1,119 19.0 16.9 3.4 3.5 18.7 20.3 30.8 12.3 1.4 6.3 6.5 6.9 2.0 L Occitane 973 HK 13.80 Neutral 13.70-1%2,696 23.6 21.6 2.4 2.3 10.4 10.9-26.9 9.2 2.3 1.9 2.1 4.6 5.0 Shanghai Jahwa 600315 CH 27.68 UP 20.20-27%2,625 42.8 45.1 3.2 3.0 7.8 6.9 33.2-5.2-8.7 1.5 1.5 1.4-2.5 Home appliance retailers GOME 493 HK 0.67 UP 0.40-40%1,813 NA NA 0.8 0.9-5.2-3.3 107.6-51.7 NA 0.0 0.0-14.6-21.2 Suning 002024 CH 10.77 Neutral 14.00 30%14,894 1,453.2 154.8 1.3 1.3 0.1 0.8-143.4 839.0 NA 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Haier Electronics 1169 HK 21.00 OP 21.80 4%7,217 13.0 11.8 2.1 1.9 17.5 16.9 16.4 10.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.5 6.4 Qingdao Haier 600690 CH 15.31 OP 17.20 12%13,412 14.0 12.5 2.3 2.0 18.4 17.4 18.4 12.6 1.0 2.5 2.7-2.0 15.4 Midea Group 000333 CH 41.59 OP 50.00 20%39,580 13.8 12.5 3.1 2.7 24.3 23.1 24.8 10.4 1.2 3.4 3.9 10.8 7.9 Gree 000651 CH 39.38 Neutral 39.00-1%34,259 8.5 9.1 2.6 2.2 36.0 26.8 31.8-6.5-1.4 4.6 4.5 12.1 11.3 Hanzhou Robam 002508 CH 24.96 Neutral 18.90-24%3,221 16.0 13.7 3.9 3.3 26.1 26.3 5.3 17.1 0.8 3.2 3.6 6.8 6.5 Home improvement Man Wah 1999 HK 3.82 Neutral 3.50-8%1,720 11.0 10.4 2.5 2.1 24.2 21.7-10.3 6.0 1.7 6.5 3.3 5.8-0.3 OEM Shenzhou 2313 HK 91.85 OP 103.40 13%17,243 25.2 21.2 5.4 4.8 22.8 24.0 22.2 18.6 1.1 1.9 2.3 3.5 3.6 Stella Intnl 1836 HK 10.22 OP 13.00 32%1,055 18.6 11.9 1.1 1.1 5.8 9.1-10.2 56.7 0.2 3.6 5.9 6.2 6.2 Pacific Textile 1382 HK 6.82 OP 9.10 40%1,241 13.3 10.2 2.9 2.8 22.8 28.2-20.0 29.9 0.3 6.6 8.3 4.1 7.2 Li&Fung 494 HK 1.33 OP 1.91 51%1,420 9.8 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.6 7.1 6.1 17.0 0.5 7.2 8.4-6.0 8.4 Yue Yuen 551 HK 25.80 OP 27.50 7%5,141 16.1 13.0 1.3 1.2 7.8 9.6-33.1 24.4 0.5 5.9 5.9 1.5 2.4 Tourism CITS 601888 CH 56.00 OP 71.40 28%17,487 34.2 25.1 6.8 5.7 21.1 24.6 26.4 36.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.5 3.8 CYTS 600138 CH 12.95 OP 14.50 12%1,402 14.8 15.2 1.5 1.4 10.7 9.5 9.8-2.3-6.7 0.8 0.8 17.4-10.1 Restaurant and supply chain YUM China YUMC US 35.29 Neutral 34.00-4%13,431 20.5 20.3 4.1 3.5 22.3 18.9 67.2 1.1 19.2 1.3 1.3 6.4 5.3 Caf de Coral 341 HK 20.85 OP 23.90 15%1,511 26.5 22.7 3.4 3.5 13.0 15.3-9.4 16.7 1.4 5.6 3.9 3.6 3.6 Xiabu Xiabu 520 HK 11.40 OP 15.00 32%1,572 23.1 18.9 4.7 4.1 21.7 23.1 9.5 22.6 0.8 2.9 3.0 6.3 2.3 Gourmet Master 2723 TT 214.00 Neutral 250.00 17%1,207 18.0 18.4 3.5 3.1 23.2 19.9 22.8-2.1-8.9 2.7 2.5 5.1 5.8 Yihai 1579 HK 22.35 Neutral 18.20-19%2,949 42.9 30.2 10.5 8.1 27.6 30.3 81.0 42.0 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.5 2.7 Haitian 603288 CH 72.45 OP 69.00-5%28,756 45.3 37.9 14.1 12.0 33.7 34.1 27.8 19.4 2.0 1.2 1.5 2.8 1.9 TCI 8436 TT 438.00 OP 618.00 41%1,533 32.7 24.2 10.0 7.6 34.9 35.8 87.9 35.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.3 Consumer Discretionary-Average ex Suning 20.0 17.2 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.4 4.5 Source:Bloomberg,Macquarie Research,January 2019;prices as of 24 January 2019 Macquarie Research China consumer tour takeaways 28 January 2019 3 HK/China consumer valuation table(cont)Fig 2 HK/China consumer valuation table(2)Company Code Price Rating TP Upside Mkt Cap P/E(X)P/B(X)ROE(%)EPS Growth(%)PEG Div yield(%)FCF yield(%)(lcy/sh)(lcy/sh)(%)US$m 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E Grocery retailers Sun Art 6808 HK 7.93 OP 11.30 44%9,581 24.1 21.7 2.7 2.5 11.7 12.0-2.9 10.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.7 4.9 Lianhua 980 HK 1.23 UP 1.50 22%171 NA NA 0.7 1.0-17.0-19.5 13.6-15.7 NA 0.0 0.0-68.4-47.4 Yonghui 601933 CH 8.16 UP 4.30-46%11,462 77.5 49.1 3.8 3.8 5.0 7.7-42.5 57.8 0.8 1.6 1.9-4.1-3.8 President Chain Store 2912 TT 321.00 Neutral 298.00-7%10,589 31.7 29.3 9.4 8.9 24.5 31.2-66.0 8.0 3.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 Taiwan Familymart 5903 TT 224.00 OP 225.00 0%1,634 30.3 27.5 8.9 8.4 30.6 31.4 17.2 10.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.3 2.5 Consumer staples Want Want China 151 HK 6.10 OP 7.70 26%9,853 21.2 19.0 4.6 4.3 23.3 23.1 N.A 11.3 1.7 2.4 2.6 7.4 5.6 Dali Foods 3799 HK 5.15 UP 4.30-17%9,914 16.3 14.2 4.0 3.5 25.8 26.1 9.1 14.7 1.0 3.1 3.5 4.5 3.7 Tingyi 322 HK 10.56 Neutral 11.30 7%7,575 20.3 18.6 2.6 2.4 13.1 13.3 38.8 9.2 2.0 2.5 2.7 7.8 8.9 WH Group 288 HK 6.84 OP 8.90 30%12,476 14.3 11.6 1.6 1.4 11.6 13.0-22.7 23.3 0.5 3.1 3.8 7.6 8.0 Shuanghui 000895 CH 24.50 Neutral 22.70-7%11,908 16.0 16.2 5.0 4.7 32.7 29.9 16.8-1.0-17.0 5.2 5.2 7.4 6.5 Uni-President China 220 HK 6.88 Neutral 8.50 24%3,771 23.3 20.7 1.9 1.9 8.4 9.2 25.5 12.9 1.6 3.0 3.4 4.6 4.2 Uni President Enterprises 1216 TT 72.40 Neutral 75.20 4%13,415 23.9 21.3 3.9 3.7 15.2 17.7-56.8 12.0 1.8 3.3 3.7 3.2 5.9 Hengan 1044 HK 57.45 UP 51.00-11%8,923 16.2 16.6 3.5 3.3 22.3 20.2-2.3-2.9-5.7 4.1 4.0 5.8 5.5 Moutai 600519 CH 672.50 OP 707.00 7%121,991 25.8 23.7 7.7 6.5 32.5 29.8 20.3 9.0 2.6 2.0 2.1 3.8 4.2 Yanghe 002304 CH 99.06 OP 123.20 28%21,646 19.4 17.0 4.4 3.9 24.2 24.3 25.1 14.4 1.2 3.2 3.6 6.7 6.3 Tsingtao H 168 HK 33.95 Neutral 30.40-9%6,572 40.6 34.2 2.5 2.4 6.4 7.2 15.8 18.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 5.8 5.0 Wuliangye 000858 CH 55.20 Neutral 52.30-2%29,687 17.2 15.9 3.4 3.1 21.2 20.4 26.1 8.5 1.9 3.1 3.3 5.8 6.0 Tsingtao A 600600 CH 36.58 Neutral 39.70 10%6,563 41.5 33.6 2.7 2.6 6.8 7.9 22.0 23.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 6.0 5.1 CRB 291 HK 27.90 UP 20.20-27%10,936 33.8 34.6 4.6 4.3 14.1 13.0 40.2-2.1-16.8 0.8 0.9 2.3 5.0 Dairy&Infant formula China Modern Dairy 1117 HK 0.84 OP 1.34 60%641 5.7 4.9 0.7 0.6 11.4 13.3 80.4 15.4 0.3 0.0 0.0-8.4-1.5 China Mengniu 2319 HK 25.20 UP 16.00-37%12,615 33.1 32.1 3.4 3.2 10.9 10.3 25.3 3.0 10.9 0.7 0.7-0.6 3.5 Bright Dairy&Food 600597 CH 8.45 Neutral 8.00-5%1,521 19.8 17.8 1.8 1.7 9.5 10.0-22.4 10.8 1.7 1.4 1.6-1.2 4.2 Yili 600887 CH 24.34 OP 27.10 11%21,551 25.5 23.1 5.4 5.0 22.2 22.6-2.7 10.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 5.7 2.6 Health&Happiness 1112 HK 43.70 Neutral 44.30 1%3,526 22.4 17.9 4.5 3.6 22.6 22.6 15.2 25.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.6 Yashili 1230 HK 1.30 OP 1.97 52%780 110.5 38.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 2.5-126.9 188.1 0.2 0.0 0.0-10.7 0.3 Greatview 468 HK 5.16 OP 5.20 1%838 16.7 15.9 2.4 2.4 14.7 15.0 4.0 5.0 3.2 5.4 5.3 2.6 6.4 Consumer Staples-Average ex Yashili 26.1 22.6 3.9 3.6 2.2 2.4 0.7 2.3 Source:Bloomberg,Macquarie Research,January 2019;prices as of 24 January 2019 Macquarie Research China consumer tour takeaways 28 January 2019 4 Introduction to Hainan Hainan is the southernmost and smallest province of China,in terms of land area,with Hainan Island making up the majority of the land.Haikou,on the northern coast,is the provincial capital while Sanya,on the southern coast,is a popular tourist destination.Hainans GDP growth has outpaced the national level over 2007-2017(Fig 3).Hainan recorded total GDP of Rmb446bn in 2017,representing 7%GDP YoY growth.The primary sectors(agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery)contributed 21.6%of total GDP,secondary sectors(manufacturing and construction)contributed 22.3%,and the tertiary sector(services)accounted for 56.1%.Looking into specific services industries,wholesale&retail represented 11%of total GDP,while real estate and hotels&catering services contributed 10%and 5%of total GDP,respectively.At 2017 year-end,Hainan is home to 9.3mn residents,while GDP per capita was Rmb48,430 in 2017.For 2018,Hainans GDP could reach Rmb500bn,representing 7.9%YoY growth or 6%YoY growth if excluding real estate,according to a Director from Hainan Development and Reform Commission.This growth rate should continue to outpace the national level.Fig 3 Hainan historical GDP and YoY growth Source:Wind,NBS,Hainan Bureau of Statistics,Macquarie Research,January 2019 Hainans tourism industry has kept strong growth momentum During 2017,a total of 67.5mn tourists visited Hainan(Fig 4).Hainans growth rate outpaced that of overall Chinese domestic tourist arrivals in 2015/2016 but slightly fell behind in 2017(Hainan:+12.0%,overall domestic:+12.6%).As for tourism revenue growth(Fig 5),Hainan consistently outpaced overall domestic over 2014-2017.During the same period,the growth rate of Chinese outbound tourists was consistently lower than that of domestic tourists and Hainans tourist arrivals.Around 98%of overnight tourists to Hainan are domestic visitors(Fig 6).Starting in May 1,2018,Hainan extended its visa-free policy to individual tourists from 59 countries/districts for a maximum 30-day period of stay.Foreign tourist visitation has seen positive growth after this policy relaxation;however,growth was not significant due to a lack of international flights,according to a Director from the Hainan Tourism and Culture Bureau.Therefore,an expansion of air transport capacity and an increase in international flights(which we will address later)would be key to attract more foreign visitors.6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0100200300400500600Hainan GDP:primary sectorHainan GDP:secondary sectorHainan GDP:tertiary sectorHainan GDP YoY growthChina GDP YoY growthRmb bnMacquarie Research China consumer tour takeaways 28 January 2019 5 Fig 4 Tourist arrivals to Hainan Fig 5 Hainan tourism revenue Source:Wind,Hainan Tourism Bureau,NBS,China Tourism Academy,Macquarie Research,January 2019 Source:Wind,Hainan Tourism Bureau,NBS,Macquarie Research,January 2019 Fig 6 Hainan overnight tourists by country/region Source:Wind,Hainan Tourism Bureau,Macquarie Research,January 2019 Based on our meeting with Hainan government officials,we think Hainan has the following advantages over other domestic tourist destinations:A unique climate.Hainan is one of the few places in China with a tropical climate.The warm weather in the winter and unique tropical flora/fauna are very attractive to visitors,especially those from the Northern China.One of the best natural conditions in the country.Hainan has a forest coverage rate of 62%,and is home to 49 nature reserves.The percentage of days with good air quality can reach 98.9%,while Level 1 and Level 2(the two highest levels for sea waters)sea waters account for 94.6%in the offshore area.Special position as the duty-free island.The implementation of an offshore duty-free policy has enhanced Hainans attractiveness as a destination for duty-free