麦格理-全球-石油与天然气行业-全球原油：再次供过于求-2019.1.17-47页.pdf

Please refer to page 45 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website January 2019 Global COMMODITIES Inside 2H18 Excesses Weigh on 2019 Outlook 2 Demand:Stable economics,elasticity,IMO benefits 5 Supply 23 US Production:What now?26 Global Crude Loadings 36 US Natural Gas 38 Appendices 42 Analysts Macquarie Capital(USA)Inc.Vikas Dwivedi +1 713 275 6352 Walt Chancellor +1 713 275 6230 Jay Tobin +1 713 275 6123 Xiaolong Liang,CFA +1 713 275 8998 Neel Mitra +1 713 275 6461 Global Crude Oil:Fighting Oversupply Again 2H18 Excesses Weigh on 2019 Outlook Key points We reduce forecasts for 2019/20/21 WTI to$52/55/52 and Brent to$61/64/60.We expect OPEC cuts,solid demand,and lower shale growth to deliver a roughly balanced 2019 market,in contrast to 1 MBD of 2H18 oversupply.We see modest upside in crude but believe rallies will prove difficult to sustain as long as the market requires OPEC cuts to balance.OPEC cuts restore balance following 2H18 oversupply 2H18 proved painful for bulls,as decelerating demand and surging supply from the US and KSA pushed oil balances toward 1 MBD of surplus.Although we believe global macro fears have been overstated,despite heavy OPEC cuts,we believe low-$50s WTI will be required in 2019 to slow shale growth,re-ignite gasoline demand,and maintain oil market balance.Demand outlook more constructive than consensus view Amidst apparent decelerating global growth and weak gasoline demand,sentiment for 2019 demand growth has clearly fallen.Nevertheless,we expect improving Y/Y demand in 2019(1.4 MBD of growth vs.1.3 MBD in 2018)as lower pump prices re-stimulate gasoline demand.While current light ends margin pressures represent a potential risk to refinery runs,capacity adds could lend support to direct crude balances,if only on a temporary basis.Structural supply-side pressures to crude persist Shale growth likely met(if not exceeded)our high estimates in 2018,indicating that productivity gains are ongoing.With the window for potential Permian crude dislocation further narrowing to the February-June period,midstream constraints should prove fleeting and have yet to really materialize in the US.All told,absent material reductions in activity,we believe the current rig count would deliver another 2 MBD of exit/exit crude+NGL growth in 2019.Further,with 3 MBD of offline supply from GCC/Iran required to balance 2019,we still do not see underpinnings for a structurally bullish crude view.Although offshore declines could create S/D deficits in late 2020/21,at present we see ample supply potential from shale and offline OPEC barrels to blunt this impact.Macquarie Crude Price Forecast$/BBL Source:Thomson Reuters,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Note:2019 forecast is for BAL YR;Fwd.prices as of 1/17/2019 Brent201920202021LTNew 60.8$64.0$60.0$65.00$Previous68.0$68.8$-$65.00$Fwd.60.9$60.7$60.7$-$WTI201920202021LTNew 52.3$55.0$52.0$57.00$Previous59.8$63.5$-$60.00$Fwd.53.2$54.0$53.9$-$Macquarie Research Global Crude Oil:Fighting Oversupply Again 17 January 2019 2 2H18 Excesses Weigh on 2019 Outlook Fig 1 Macquarie Quarterly Crude Price Forecast$/BBL Source:Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Fig 2 Global S/D seen back in balance in 2019 following,2H18 oversupply Source:IEA,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Note:4Q18&onwards are estimates 1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21LTBrent$59.00$61.00$63.00$60.00$65.00$65.00$63.00$63.00$60.00$60.00$60.00$60.00$65.00WTI$50.00$53.00$55.00$51.00$54.00$56.00$55.00$55.00$52.00$52.00$52.00$52.00$57.00WTI-Brent($9.00)($8.00)($8.00)($9.00)($11.00)($9.00)($8.00)($8.00)($8.00)($8.00)($8.00)($8.00)($8.00)201520162017201820192020202120152016201720182019202020215 Year TotalGlobal Supply96,43696,91397,44999,907100,610102,287103,83928144765362458702167715526926Global Demand95,23896,35497,86999,153100,578101,982103,31722001116151512841425140413356963S/D1,198558-42075432305521615(640)(978)1174(722)273217(37)Demand SummaryOECD46,522 46,970 47,415 47,850 48,094 48,238 48,311 739 448 445 435 244 144 72 1341NONOECD48,717 49,385 50,454 51,303 52,484 53,743 55,006 1,461 668 1,070 849 1,180 1,259 1,263 5622Supply Summary 5 Year TotalNGLs 12,41812,94413,39114,01514,47014,75915,1035285264476244552893442159Processing Gains 2,2402,2672,2942,3222,3492,3742,39926272728282525133Global Biofuels2,2852,3852,4712,5722,6562,6962,7361510186101844040350Black oil79,49479,31779,29480,99981,13482,45783,6002245(178)(23)1705135132311434283Of Which OPEC32,06533,01032,61532,48131,41431,54431,5951150945(395)(134)(1067)13051(1415)Non-OPEC47,42946,30746,67948,51849,72050,91352,0051095(1122)37218401202119310935698NOPEC KBD201520162017201820192020202120152016201720182019202020215 Year TotalRussia10,71910,96310,98011,15911,25111,44611,544143244171789219598580USA9,6669,0019,48311,10712,67613,83315,208689(666)48216241568115813756208China4,2663,9773,8673,8153,7143,6073,50297(289)(110)(51)(101)(108)(105)(475)Canada3,6783,6783,9764,2454,0974,2354,23569(0)299269(148)1390558NorthSea2,6622,7172,6622,5272,4302,3932,39314855(55)(135)(96)(38)0(324)Brazil2,4422,5152,6282,5832,7432,9332,99318373112(45)16019060478Mexico2,2752,1601,9531,8501,7221,6271,572(167)(114)(207)(103)(128)(95)(55)(588)Kazakhstan1,6561,6291,8041,8931,9201,9201,920(27)(27)175892700291Colombia1,00688085386487684580515(126)(27)1212(31)(40)(75)Oman9821,0049719779909909903823(34)61300(14)Other8,0787,7837,5017,4977,3017,0846,844(92)(296)(281)(4)(196)(218)(240)(939)47,42946,30746,67948,51849,72050,91352,0051095(1122)37218401202119310935698ANNUAL BALANCE KBDANNUAL CHANGE KBDMacquarie Research Global Crude Oil:Fighting Oversupply Again 17 January 2019 3 Fig 3 Modest surpluses anticipated across forecast period through 2021 Source:IEA,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Note:4Q18&onwards are estimates Fig 4 Macquarie Global S/D:Balance Summary 2017-2021 MBD Source:IEA,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Note:4Q18&onwards are estimates 1,592-1,0551,2821,063845-177-6706133201131Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21Global S/D Balances KBDMACQUARIE GLOBAL S/D MODELExit Growth1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21 21-18OECD46.9147.0247.6648.0647.8247.1648.0748.3547.7047.7248.3148.6447.8047.9148.4848.7647.8248.0648.5748.790.44NONOECD49.5751.0150.6950.5550.3951.3851.5551.8951.4552.6152.8353.0352.6953.9854.0554.2553.9055.2855.3255.533.64Demand Total96.4998.0398.3498.6298.2298.5499.61 100.2499.16 100.34 101.14 101.68100.49 101.90 102.53 103.02101.72 103.34 103.89 104.324.07OPEC32.3032.5832.9632.6232.3232.1232.6132.8731.7231.3831.3231.2331.3231.4731.6431.7531.6931.6331.5631.50-1.36NOPECUS37.6336.9737.0037.1837.4737.2837.3537.5537.1336.9936.9937.0737.1037.0737.0537.1037.0036.8436.6836.67-0.88US9.179.289.4510.0410.3810.7611.4511.8512.2512.5512.7913.1213.4313.6413.9414.3314.7115.0815.3815.673.82NGL,etc.17.5818.1518.5018.3918.1718.9319.4919.0518.9019.5519.8719.5819.2619.8820.2219.9519.6420.3120.6520.351.30SupplyTotal96.6896.9897.9298.2298.3499.08 100.90 101.31100.00 100.46 100.97 101.01101.10 102.07 102.85 103.13103.04 103.85 104.27 104.192.89Balance0.19-1.06-0.42-0.390.130.551.281.060.850.13-0.18-0.670.610.170.320.111.310.520.38-0.12NANOPECUS 1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21 21-18Russia11.0910.9610.9210.9510.9611.0011.2611.4111.3611.2111.2111.2111.3111.4111.5111.5411.5411.5411.5411.540.13China3.903.913.823.833.813.863.803.783.763.733.703.673.643.623.593.573.543.513.493.46-0.33Canada4.053.694.034.144.244.134.344.283.954.054.154.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.24-0.04NorthSea2.782.712.582.572.682.512.432.482.482.432.382.432.432.382.332.432.432.382.332.43-0.05Brazil2.642.632.622.622.602.602.532.592.652.712.772.832.872.912.952.992.992.992.992.990.40Mexico2.022.021.891.891.901.871.831.801.771.741.711.681.661.641.621.601.591.581.571.56-0.24Kazakhstan1.801.801.781.841.901.911.841.921.921.921.921.921.921.921.921.921.921.921.921.920.00Colombia0.840.850.860.860.850.860.860.880.880.880.870.870.860.850.840.830.820.810.800.79-0.09Oman0.970.970.970.970.970.970.980.990.990.990.990.990.990.990.990.990.990.990.990.990.00Other7.547.427.537.527.567.557.467.417.377.327.287.237.177.117.056.996.936.876.816.75-0.66NOPECUS37.6336.9737.0037.1837.4737.2837.3537.5537.1336.9936.9937.0737.1037.0737.0537.1037.0036.8436.6836.67-0.88OPEC1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21 21-18ALGERIA1.051.061.061.021.011.031.061.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.070.00ANGOLA1.641.641.671.621.551.491.481.471.471.501.521.531.531.531.531.531.521.511.501.490.02CONGO0.210.250.280.290.310.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.330.00ECUADOR0.520.530.540.530.520.530.530.520.520.510.510.500.500.500.490.490.490.490.490.48-0.04EQUATORIAL0.130.120.120.130.130.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.00GABON0.200.200.200.210.200.190.190.170.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.02IRAN3.803.793.843.823.833.843.623.092.692.322.322.322.322.322.322.322.322.322.322.32-0.77IRAQ4.464.504.484.454.454.484.654.654.704.704.724.754.804.874.954.974.974.974.974.970.32KUWAIT2.712.712.702.702.702.712.792.782.712.712.712.712.762.842.912.992.992.992.992.990.21LIBYA0.660.710.941.001.010.890.901.061.031.000.970.940.930.920.920.910.910.910.910.91-0.15NEUTRALZON0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00NIGERIA1.391.491.621.601.661.511.621.671.671.671.631.591.571.551.531.511.491.471.451.43-0.24QATAR0.600.620.600.610.600.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.610.00SAUDIARABI9.889.979.999.999.9510.1410.4310.7910.2810.3610.3610.3610.3610.3610.3610.3610.3610.3610.3610.36-0.43UAE2.962.932.942.902.842.883.003.303.143.143.143.143.193.263.343.413.413.413.413.410.11VENEZUELA2.082.051.991.751.541.391.291.251.211.171.131.091.061.020.990.950.920.890.860.83-0.42OPEC Total32.3032.5832.9632.6232.3232.1232.6132.8731.7231.3831.3231.2331.3231.4731.6431.7531.6931.6331.5631.50-1.36Macquarie Research Global Crude Oil:Fighting Oversupply Again 17 January 2019 4 Fig 5 Macquarie Global S/D:YOY Changes 2017-2021 KBD Source:IEA,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Note:4Q18&onwards are estimates MACQUARIE GLOBAL S/D MODEL1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21Previous Yr 1,1351551,079192-1,055-422-3951265461,2821,063845128-177-670613173320113Demand-990-2,030-1,490-1,550-1,733-504-1,272-1,628-939-1,799-1,529-1,432-1,330-1,559-1,384-1,341-1,236-1,439-1,367-1,299OPEC-235-168-163-1,01420-460-347249-595-741-1,297-1,633-40791319517372152-73-248NOPECUS-172530-47-753-156309345364-343-288-360-475-35856030-100-235-365-430US-1233016841,0681,2111,4771,9971,8131,8701,7931,3401,2701,1801,0901,1501,2101,2801,4401,4401,340NGL,biofuels,etc.578297589775592778981660726618387537360338353368385425425400Final 192-1,055-422-3951265461,2821,063845128-177-6706131733201131,314515380-124NOPECUS Supply 1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21Russia18612724-269-12935340468404214-50-200-50200300330230130300China-232-99-70-40-86-49-19-50-55-130-105-115-115-110-105-100-100-105-105-110Canada232575246141190444305137-287-81-185-402851858500000NorthSea-327-35-208-100-201-149-91-204-82-50-50-50-50-5000000Brazil319177-3-43-40-25-90-245110924024022020018016012080400Mexico-216-165-257-190-122-147-55-88-134-134-125-120-110-100-90-80-70-60-50-40Kazakhstan11323628667105112607819980000000000Colombia-86-481312510922331510-10-20-30-35-40-40-40-40-40Oman-30-33-39-33-211016232010000000000Other-455-268-213-19023130-66-103-193-228-185-180-195-210-225-240-240-240-240-240NOPECUS Totals-172530-47-753-156309345364-343-288-360-475-35856030-100-235-365-430OPEC Supply Detail 1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21ALGERIA-50-33-63-107-38-3305054393000000000ANGOLA-124-97-518-87-153-190-150-78134560553050-10-20-30-40CONGO-6287696997553362120000000000ECUADOR-20-20-13-13-6-3-10-10-2-17-25-20-17-14-11-8-8-8-8-8EQUATORIAL-22-24-14-533-7-10-17-70000000000GABON-33-27-33-132-14-7-37-10402000000000IRAN661203167103353-221-734-1148-1528-1300-770-3700000000IRAQ16619751-190-11-2016719624321775100100175225225175100250KUWAIT-187-147-220-154-7-49077134-80-6750125200275225150750LIBYA293394624430353181-35622211170-120-100-80-55-30-20-10-50NEUTRALZON00000000000000000000NIGERIA-3032537414126813-4731016310-80-100-120-100-80-80-80-80-80QATAR-56-37-47-23-3-1310-66-30000000000SAUDIARABI-303-350-620-55970166442800326224-70-431800000000UAE54-67-193-260-116-5363403296258135-16550125200275225150750VENEZUELA-303-213-200-374-540-657-697-499-333-220-160-160-155-150-145-140-135-130-125-120OPEC Supply Total(235)(168)(163)(1,014)20 (460)(347)249 (595)(741)(1,297)(1,633)(407)91 319 517 372 152 (73)(248)Macquarie Research Global Crude Oil:Fighting Oversupply Again 17 January 2019 5 Demand:Stable economics,elasticity,IMO benefits SUMMARY Demand could surprise to the upside after 2018 weakness We forecast global demand growth of 1.42 MBD in 2019,1.40 MBD in 2020,and 1.34 in 2021 While we recognize continued headline risk to economic growth and current PMI trends may challenge early 2019 demand,we expect the annual balance to surprise relative to forecasts embedding a“hard landing.”Although 2018 petroleum demand growth of 1.3%appears set to underperform econometric expectations given global GDP growth approaching 3.1%,we see much of this disappointment due to negative price elasticity impacts that are in the process of reversing.2018 global gasoline demand growth of 100 KBD trailed LT trends by nearly 250 KBD due to higher prices/lower subsides/weaker EM currencies.We expect these headwinds to start to reverse in 2019 and allow pump prices to drop by 10%-20%across EM markets.Offsetting this reversion to the mean for gasoline demand,we anticipate global economic deceleration to create an underlying drag of 100-150 KBD under status quo expectations of 15-20 bps YoY slower global growth.All told,we see these two key impacts driving a stronger y/y demand profile in 2019.Despite focus on weaker near-term China and India PMI trends,we see more potential structural divergence in the OECD growth path underlying 50 bps of degradation through 2020 is the larger regional headwind risk,with a potential yield curve inversion implying recession further out the curve.Further,OECD growth has been supporting demand at an annual clip of nearly 500 KBD over the past three years,relative to a longer-term contractionary trend due to decreasing energy intensity.In contrast to these concerns,the US represents a significant portion of OECD growth,and we expect 1)Industrial production(IP)strength to extend into 2019;2)a positive consumer feedback loop of low unemployment and higher wage growth to drive positive spending;and 3)shale growth will continue to support logistics/tru