麦格理-全球-宏观策略-全球经济预测更新：再一次找到突破口-2019.3.21-29页.pdf

21 March 2019 Global Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie are not independent and,therefore,the information herein may be subject to certain conflicts of interest,and may have been shared with other parties prior to publication.Note:To the extent Macquarie Research is referenced,it is identified as such and the associated disclaimers are included in the published research report.Please refer to the important disclosures Economists Macquarie Securities(Australia)Limited Ric Deverell +61 2 8232 4307 Justin Fabo +612 8232 0696 Hayden Skilling,CFA +61 2 8232 2623 Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.David Doyle,CFA +1 416 848 3663 Neil Shankar +1 416 607 5055 Macquarie Capital Limited Larry Hu,PhD +852 3922 3778 Irene Wu +852 39223796 This publication has been prepared by Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie and is not a product of the Macquarie Research Department.Global Economic Forecast Update Once more unto the breach The global economy hit an air pocket around the turn of the year,with the partial indicators suggesting significant and widespread weakness in December and January.While it is too early to precisely calibrate the slowdown,our best guess is that global GDP growth slowed from around 2%(saar)in Q4 to around 2%in Q1,with industrial production(IP)and exports noticeably weaker.The key question is whether the slowdown is the beginning of the next global recession,or a temporary dip that will quickly reverse,noting that global IP growth has rarely been weaker than seen in recent months without the global economy tipping into a recession.Thankfully,while the global data is yet to definitively turn,there are enough green shoots for us to be reasonably confident that Q1 will be the low point for this mini cycle,with global GDP likely to expand by a still solid 2%over the course of 2019.We take comfort from the fact that the major central banks have turned on a dime and are now acting to shore up growth.It is also reassuring that markets have started the year in a positive mood we suspect that fear of the trade war and the related market funk was instrumental in the real economy pullback seen in December,with the improved mood(in part due to reported progress on the trade deal)likely to support a return to transmission as normal for both consumers and companies alike.Importantly,Chinese growth looks be now recovering,while Europe has also shown signs of stabilisation.While US IP will continue to slow for a while yet,for GDP it looks like there are once again seasonal oddities at play,with the big dip in US consumption in the month of December in our view implausible given still very strong income growth.This suggests the very weak US Q1 GDP print will once again be followed by a strong Q2.The fact that global services growth has remained more resilient than IP and trade gives us some comfort that a rebound is near.However,for this outcome to occur,we will soon need to see a bounce in the monthly IP data,suggesting that the manufacturing PMIs for March will be unusually important.Interestingly,while commodities and equities are pricing recovery,the bond market(arguably the market with the best track record)is yet to price improvement,with upcoming data likely to drive the next moves in all three.While we feel that the turn is in,we note that with growth still soft,another geopolitical shock,such as an escalation in the trade war,could have a non-linear impact on the economic outlook and risk assets.The rebound is also likely to be relatively subdued as the US continues to slow in trend terms this year.Faced with yet another slowdown scare we suspect the latest“Committee to Save the World”(Messers Powell,Draghi,Carney and Yi)can relate with William Shakespeares Henry V ahead of the battle of Agincourt,when he proclaimed “Once more unto the breach,dear friends,once more”.Global Economic Forecast Update 21 March 2019 2 Contents Global economic outlook:Pervasive uncertainty but yes!There will be growth in the Spring!3 United States:Slowing,but still solid growth 8 China:Better sentiment on policy easing 12 Eurozone:Are we there yet?14 Japan:A volatile growth path 16 India:Easing monetary policy amid growth headwinds 18 Australia:Downgraded 20 Canada:Stagnation with downside risks 23 Economic and market forecasts 27 Global Economic Forecast Update 21 March 2019 3 Global economic outlook:Pervasive uncertainty but yes!There will be growth in the Spring!Despite a rolling series of shocks(trade war,Turkey,Argentina,Brexit,Italy,etc.)global growth remained solid for most of last year,with GDP expanding by a little above its long-run average of 2%in the year to Q4.However,while Q4 was on average still solid,momentum slowed materially through the quarter,with data in the month of December particularly weak in many economies.GDP growth in Q1 looks to be coming in at 2%saar,below average but still much stronger than seen during the slowdown scares of 2012 and 2016.In contrast,global industrial production(IP)looks to have been falling since October,with our preferred measure of momentum(3m/3m change)contracting for the first time since 2012.o This is as weak as IP normally gets outside of recession.Fig 1 Our best guess for Q1 is something like 2%saar,consistent with the Jan-Feb average composite PMI Fig 2 While Q1 is likely to be the trough,the rebound will be gradual Source:IHS Markit,Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Source:IMF,Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Fig 3 The US is a drag on growth in Q1,but the expected Q2 rebound should support Fig 4 Global IP momentum is as weak as it ever gets outside recession But the current dip looks like an overshoot relative to GDP,suggesting scope for a recovery Source:IMF,Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Source:IMF,Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy 49505152535455561.01.52.02.53.03.54.01213141516171819IndexPer centGlobal Growth and PMIComposite PMI,quarterly average(RHS)Quarterly annualised GDP growth(LHS)Average(1980-Present)*Jan-Feb average used for 2019Q10.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.010111213141516171819Per centGlobal GDP GrowthMarket exchange rate weightedYear-endedQuarterlyAverage(1980-Present)-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21213141516171819Per centContributions to Quarterly GDP GrowthMarket exchange rate weightedUSEurozoneJapanOther AEsChinaIndiaOther EMsTotalLR averageForecasts-8-6-4-2024681012148085909500051015Per centGlobal GDP and IP GrowthQuarterly annualisedGDPIP*Dashed lines indicate 2019Q1 projections.Ric Deverell +61 2 8232 4307 Hayden Skilling,CFA+61 2 8232 2623 Global Economic Forecast Update 21 March 2019 4 Given the magnitude of the unexpected New Year slowdown,the key question is whether the dip is the beginning of the next global recession,or rather an air pocket that will prove temporary?To that end,the data in the next few months will be critical like the major central banks,we are in data-watching mode.If IP and trade contract for another couple of months,and GDP growth“catches down”,it is likely that the conversation will quickly turn to recession.But if the data bounces,the market rally seen in recent months could gain further sustenance.While we are conscious of the fact that economists have a dismal record of forecasting recession given the data lags and the broad-based nature of back revisions,forecasts even in the first quarter of contraction have historically remained positive on balance we suspect that Q1 will be the sequential low point for the current mini cycle.Indeed,with US growth likely to rebound in Q2,Europe stabilising,and the Chinese stimulus beginning to gain traction,we still expect global GDP growth this year to come in around its long-run average of 2%.We take comfort from the fact that central banks have turned on a dime and are now acting to shore up growth.It is also reassuring that markets have turned decisively more positive this year we suspect that the market funk was instrumental in the real economy pullback seen in December,with the improved mood likely to support a return to transmission as normal for both consumers and companies alike.We do not expect recent US consumption weakness to persist,with a weak Q1 likely to once again give way to a strong Q2.It also feels like Europe has stabilised,notwithstanding ongoing fragilities.While Chinese growth also looks to be finding a bottom,we do not expect a rapid recovery.As we noted in Global Growth:Q1 Air Pocket,in the past when IP growth has been weaker than GDP,most of the time IP has recovered in subsequent quarters.With services currently stronger than both IP and trade,for growth to rebound we suspect we will first need these key sectors to turn.To that end,while both are at levels that historically have often signified a turning point,we dont yet have clear evidence that a turn is in.As shown below,both the hard IP data to January,as well as the global manufacturing PMI to February have continued to weaken.While the new orders component of the manufacturing PMI improved a little in February,there is no evidence that new orders lead the overall index,suggesting that the bounce could be noise.Fig 5 Global IP growth has fallen significantly and is yet to show a clear trough Fig 6 We suspect global trade needs to turn before we can be confident that IP growth has bottomed Source:IHS Markit,Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Source:Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy 46474849505152535455-2-101234561213141516171819IndexPer centGlobal Industrial Production GrowthIndustrial production growth,annualised 3m/3m(LHS)Global manufacturing PMI(RHS)Industrial production growth,monthly(LHS)Average(1980-Present)-8-6-4-20246810121213141516171819Per centGlobal Trade and IP Growth3m/3m annualisedIndustrial productionReal trade Global Economic Forecast Update 21 March 2019 5 We note that trade and growth have moved closely together over recent years suggesting that the trade weakness seen in recent months needs to be stemmed.To that end,it is notable that most of the weakness has once again been in emerging Asia,with China the key driver.This suggests that after the relatively weak trade performance in Jan/Feb,Chinese trade data for March will be very important.If exports and imports remain weak,it may suggest that the much-anticipated rebound may take longer than we currently expect.Fig 7 We only have global trade volumes data to December,but EM Asia clearly drove the recent weakness(and prior strength)Fig 8 The nominal Chinese exports data suggest that a turning point may be close,but we are not there yet Source:Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Source:Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy To that end,it is reassuring that our proprietary China business cycle indicator continued to recover in March,with the export component also showing signs of life.Fig 9 Chinese industrial production growth appears to have begun to recover Fig 10 With both the copper and steel sectors seeing a material increase in export orders in March Source:IHS Markit,Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Source:Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy While on balance we are positive,we note that considerable risks remain with growth this soft,another geopolitical shock,such as an escalation in the trade war,could have a non-linear impact on the economic outlook it would be a bad time to implement Tariffs on European autos We also expect the recovery to be relatively subdued,with a rapid rebound unlikely in the US(as the fiscal stimulus continues to fade),Europe(where structural issues remain front and centre)or China(where the authorities are not aiming for a strong rebound given deleveraging concerns).95100105110115120Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18IndexGlobal Real Trade January 2016=100Emerging AsiaRest of world-50-40-30-20-1001020304050Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Per centEM Asia Trade Growth3m/3m annualisedReal,Emerging AsiaNominal,ChinaNominal,Emerging Asia-3-2-1012313141516171819IndexPMIs and MCBCIStandardized*MCBCI*Rescaled to have a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1 since July 2012.PMIs have been seasonally adjusted again by Macquarie.Average of Markit and NBS manufacturing PMIs-3-2-10123413141516171819IndexMCBCI and Export OrdersSeasonally adjusted,standardized*Steel export ordersMCBCICopper export orders*Scaled to have a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1 Global Economic Forecast Update 21 March 2019 6“In the garden,growth has its seasons.First comes spring and summer,but then we have fall and winter.And then we get spring and summer again.Yes!There will be growth in the spring.”Chance the Gardener,Being There,1979.Different signals from the major markets It is notable that,at present,markets are giving different reads on the likely growth outlook.Based on the normal relationship with global growth,equity markets are pricing a recovery.However,while the rebound since 24 December has taken away some of the downside risks,we feel that in part the bounce in both US and global equities has been more about recovering from the Q4 overshoot than looking ahead to better growth.Fig 11 US equities overshot to the downside in Q4,but have since started to price a global growth rebound Fig 12 Non-US equities have also begun to price economic recovery Source:Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Source:Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Similarly,commodities on balance appear to be expecting a rebound in global growth.However,while the signal from the oil market looks relatively clear,like equities,metals overshot to the downside last year,suggesting that in part the recovery is more about a diminution of trade war fears than expectations for a sharp growth rebound.Fig 13 Are metals prices recovering?Or just a recovery from the trade fears in 2018?Fig 14 Oil markets have closely tracked global growth in recent years,with the current price suggesting a growth rebound in coming months Source:Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy Source:Macrobond,Macquarie Macro Strategy-30-20-10010203040-2-101234567141516171819Per centPer centGlobal IP and US Equity Prices3m/3m annualised changeS&P 500(RHS)Global IP(LHS)*Dashed line assumes prices remain stable out to June 2019-40-30-20-10010203040-2-1012345678141516171819Per centPer centGlobal IP and Equity Prices3m/3m annualised changeGlobal IP(LHS)Rest of world equityprices(MSCI ACWI ex US,RHS)*Dashed line assumes prices remain stable out to June 2019-60-40-20020406080100-20246810141516171819Per centPer centGlobal IP and Metal Prices3m/3m annualised growthGlobal IP(LHS)CRB metals prices(RHS)*Dashed line assumes prices remain stable out to June 2019-100-50050100150-2-1012345678141516171819Per centPer centGlobal IP and Oil Prices3m/3m annualised growthBrentoil price(RHS)Global IP(LHS)*Dashed line assumes prices remain stable out to June 2019 Global Economic Forecast Update 21 March 2019 7 Indeed,the bond market,which in our view has historically been the most in line with growth expectations,is currently far less bullish than commodities or equities.Rather than pricing a recovery