美国农业部-美股-农业行业-饲料展望：对当前和过去一年的资产负债表做了几项调整-20200114-16页.pdf

Approved by USDAs World Agricultural Outlook Board Feed Outlook Tom Capehart Olga Liefert David Olson Several Changes to Current and Past Years Balance Sheets There were several significant changes to both the 2018/19 and 2019/20 balance sheets this month,although the end result a modest forecast decline in U.S.corn ending stocks for 2019/20.Revisions to 2018/19 corn stocks result in a 106-million-bushel jump in stocks available for 2019/20 supply,although stronger-than-expected domestic demand during the September-to-November quarter more than offset the larger supplies.Total use for 2019/20 is projected 155 million bushels higher while 2018/19 is down 186 million.Corn trade for the October-September international trade year(TY)is virtually unchanged,although with significant shifts for major exporters.Two major foreign corn exportersBrazil and Ukrainesee their corn export projections grow,while U.S.corn exports for 2019/20 are cut 4 percent this month.Increased competition limits U.S.exports,despite expected record global corn trade.Global trade in sorghum and barley are projected higher.-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0Ending stocksUse,totalExportsDomestic,totalEthanol for fuelFS&I*Supply,totalImportsProductionBeginning stocksPercent ChangeSource:Economic Research Service Feed Grain Database,U.S.Dept.of Agricutlure.Figure 1Corn supply and use:percent change from last months forecast(2019/20)Economic Research Service|Situation and Outlook Report Next release:February 13,2020 FDS-20a|January 14,2020In this report:-Domestic Outlook-International Outlook 2 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Domestic Outlook Production Revised For Both 2018/19 and 2019/20 Projected 2019/20 corn production is raised 31 million bushels this month to 13,692 million as lower harvested acreage is offset by a 1-bushel per acre increase in yield to 168 bushels per acre,on the farmer-reported survey conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Service(NASS)during December,released in the NASS Crop Production report.December 1 grain stocks of 11,389 million bushels,as reported in the NASS Grain Stocks,were lower than anticipated.NASS will re-survey operators who reported acreage not harvested in Michigan,Minnesota,North Dakota,and Wisconsin in early spring and make updates as necessary.2019/20 Disappearance Raised 155 Million Bushels Feed and residual use for 2019/20 is projected 250 million bushels higher this month at 5,525 million.Food,seed,and industrial(FSI)use is lowered 20 million bushels with high fructose corn syrup and glucose and dextrose down 5 million bushels each,and starch is lowered 10 million bushels,all based on year-to-date data.There is no change in projected corn for ethanol.Total FSI use is projected at 6,770 million bushels.Projected exports are lowered 75 million 020406080100120140160180200010203040506070809010088/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16 18/19Bu/acreMillion acresFigure 2U.S.corn harvested area and yieldSources:USDA,Economic Research Service with data from National Agricultural Statistics Service,QuickStats,and USDA,World Agricultural Outlook Board,Crop Projections,2019.Harvested area(left axis)Yield(right axis)3 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service bushels to 1,775 million due to the slow pace of sales and shipments,the lowest of outstanding sales in early January since 2012/13.With total use projected at 14,070 million bushels,ending stocks are pegged at 1,892 million and stocks-to-use are projected slightly tighter at 13.4,compared with 13.7 last month.For 2018/19,NASS revised harvested area made for an 80-million bushel reduction in production to 14,340 million and a reduction in supply of 80 million bushels to 16,509 million.In addition,September 1,2019 stocks are revised upward by 106 million bushels to 2,221 million;thus,implied feed and residual disappearance is down 186 million bushels relative to last month.First quarter 2019/20(September-November)feed and residual is a record high at 2,640 million bushels.Grain-Consuming Animal Units Grain-consuming animal units(GCAU)for 2019/20 are projected at 102.84 million units,up 0.24 million from last month.Estimated January 1 inventories fell this month for dairy and beef cattle,broilers,and layers,and also declined for beef cattle and turkeys.However,estimated January 1 inventories rose for layers,broilers,and hogs.GCAUs for 2018/19 are estimated at 100.73 million.02468101214161888/8991/9294/9597/9800/0103/0406/0709/1012/1315/1618/19Feed and residualExportsOther food,seed,and industrial usesEthanolEnding stocksNote:Marketing year 2018/19 and 2019/20 are projected.Source:USDA,World Agricultural Outlook Board,WASDE.Figure 3 U.S.corn utilizationBillion bu4 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Feed and Residual Use:Four Feed Grains and Wheat Feed and residual use for the four feed grains(corn,sorghum,barley,and oats)and wheat on a September-August marketing year basis for 2019/20 is projected at 150.5 million tons,up from 144.1 million tons last month.Feed and residual for corn and sorghum increased while barley and wheat declined.Feed and residual per GCAU increased slightly to 1.5 tons per GCAU.2019/20 Food,Seed,and Industrial Use Update Corn used to produce fuel ethanol,as reported in the NASS Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production,gained 8 percent to 456.7 million bushels in November,bringing first-quarter production to 1,295.4 million,5-percent below the same period in 2018/19.Energy Information Administration weekly estimates of December ethanol production are up more than 3 percent from December 2018.Projected corn used for fuel ethanol is unchanged from last months forecast.Exports of fuel ethanol during the first quarter of 2019/20 were 19 percent short of the same period last year at 308 million gallons,representing roughly 110 million bushels of corn.Corn used for starch and sweeteners is adjusted this month based on complete first quarter(September-November)data.First quarter corn use for high fructose corn syrup(HFCS)production is projected 5 million bushels lower at 430 million bushels.Corn for glucose and dextrose is lowered 5 million bushels to 350 million and corn for starch is projected 10 million 050100150200250123456789101112Figure 4U.S.fuel ethanol exports 2018/19 World2018/19 Brazil2019/20 World2019/20 BrazilSource:USDA,Economic Research Service with data from U.S.Department of Commerce,U.S.Census Bureau.1,000 gal.5 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service lower at 220 million bushels.For all these categories,September-November is significantly lower than the same period last year.With these revisions,total FSI use is projected at 6,770 million bushels,compared with 6,791 million bushels in 2018/19.Corn Exports U.S.corn sales and shipments for the first 4 months(Sep-Dec)in 2019 have been the lowest since the drought year of 2012/13.Actual shipments during September-November recorded by 123456789Jan.2000Jan.01Jan.02Jan.03Jan.04Jan.05Jan.06Jan.07Jan.08Jan.09Jan.10Jan.11Jan.12Jan.13Jan.14Jan.15Jan.16Jan.17Jan.18Jan.19Dol./bu Sources:USDA,Economic Research Service,Feed Grains Database and USDA,Agricultural Marketing Service.Louisiana Gulf Central Illinois Figure 5 Monthly corn(yellow#2)prices for Central Illinois and Louisiana Gulf121416181101121141161181201Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19$/short ton No.2 yellow cornDDGS Cent ILSources:USDA,Economic Research Service,Feed Grains Database and USDA,Agricultural Marketing Service.Figure 6Monthly and prices for Central Illinois no.2 yellow corn and corn distillers dried grain6 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Census totaled 268.7 million bushels compared with 632.1 million during the same period last year.This is reflected in projected 2019/20 export volume of 1,775 million bushels,14 percent lower than 2018/19.During the first quarter of 2019/20,Mexico,Japan,and Colombia,Honduras,and Canada were the major destinations for U.S.corn.Sorghum Production Lowered The NASS survey of sorghum producers in the Crop Production Annual resulted in lower harvested area and yield for 2019/20.As a result the crop is reduced 16 million bushes to 341 million bushels.Adding 50,000 of imports brings total supply to 405 million bushels.Feed and residual use is lowered 20 million bushels to 140 million,based on indicated disappearance during the September to November quarter.FSI is unchanged at 100 million bushels.1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.5Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulyAug.2016/172017/182018/192019/20Source:USDA,Economic Research Service with data from U.S.Department of Commerce,U.S.Census Bureau,December 2019 Grain Inspections.Million metric tonsFigure 7Monthly U.S.corn exports 7 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service 02468101214161820Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Million buFigure 9U.S.sorghum for ethanol use by monthSource:USDA Economic Research Service with data from USDA,National Agricultural StatisticsService,Grains Crushings and Co-Products.Production.Exports are raised because of strong shipments to Mexico,as well as the fact that shipments to unknown destinations(see definition on page 11)through the end of December have increased.Total disappearance is projected 10 million bushels lower at 360 million.Sorghum exports are raised 10 million bushels to 120 million on stronger pace during September-November,as reported by the Census Bureau and export inspection data during the month of December.Exports during the first quarter of 2019/20 reached 24.5 million bushels compared with 15.9 million bushels during the same period last year.Much of the increase is due to shipments to Mexico,which increased from 4.7 million bushels to 8.0 million.8 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Barley FSI Lowered Malt barley is a major ingredient in beer production,especially for craft beers,which tend to be brewed by smaller operations.Revisions to FSI use for barley this month reflect updated estimates of craft sector production relative to total beer production.Price Changes for 2019/20 Barley and Oats The projected 2019/20 season average price(SAP)received by farmers for barley is lowered 5 cents per bushel to$4.60 per bushel.The projected oats SAP is raised$0.05 per bushel to$2.95 based on sales to date.123456789Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Dol./bu SorghumCornSources:USDA,Economic Research Service,Feed Grains Database and USDA,Agricultural Marketing Service.Figure 10Monthly#2 grain sorghum and yellow corn prices for Kansas City 9 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service International Outlook Source:Trade Data Monitor(TDM).U.S.October-September 2019/20 corn exports are projected down 2.0 million tons this month to 48.0 million(down 75 million bushels to 1,775 million for the September-August local marketing year),the lowest in 6 years.Similar to the previous year,all three other major corn exporters02468U.S.Corn Exports Projected to Decline Global corn trade is virtually unchanged this month,although with expectation of significant shits among major exporters.Projected U.S.2019/20 corn exports are cut this month due to strong competition from South America and Ukraine that is curbing U.S.exports,despite high global corn trade.U.S.market share in the major corn importing countries has become highly dependent on the crop size in Brazil,Argentina,and Ukraine,as large crops in those countries boost their price competitiveness and tend to limit U.S.exports.Even in traditional stable U.S.import markets,such as Japan,Korea,and Taiwan,where the United States used to reign as the top foreign supplier,it is losing market shares(fig.11).Figure 11:U.S.is losing dominance in S.Korean corn import market Million tons,October-September international trade year.12102007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19United StatesBrazilArgentinaS Korea:Total corn imports10 Feed Outlook,FDS-20a,January 14,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Brazil,Argentina,and Ukraineare projected to have bumper harvests,combined with modest reduction in corn output in the United States.The pace of U.S.corn shipments in the beginning of the year has been sluggish and by the end of December accumulated exports lag 55 percent behind last year.At 4.8 million tons,the census results for October-November 2019 are 30 percent lower than the 5-year average for these months.For December 2019,corn export inspections at 2.2 million tons stand at slightly more than half of what they were a year ago.Moreover,U.S.outstanding sales at the end of December not only lag behind the previous year,which was frontloaded,but are also the lowest since the drought year of 2012/13 for this time period.On the other hand,Brazil has been exporting corn at a record pace.The country is within 2 months of the end of its 2018/19 local marketing year(March-February),and normally at this point its corn supplies are on the low end of the scale.Typically Brazilian corn exports decelerate in November,but in 2019 the country maintained a torrid pace of exports through December,exporting since March a total of 37.7 million tons of corn in 10 months,an average of almost 4.0 million tons a month.The fast pace of corn exports can be at least partly attributed to the slowdown of soybean exports that are competing for the countrys struggling transportation system.However,in coming months Brazils corn exports are expected to drop sharply,as highly profitable soybeans are currently being harvested and will soon be exported,thereby shifting port capacity use from corn to soybeans.Yet,when Brazil starts to harvest its second corn crop in July,roughly 75 percent of the total harvest corn exports are expected to surge again.The higher recent pace is boosting corn exports by Brazil for the 2018/19 local(March-February)and the 2019/20 international trade(October-September)years,as both years include the bountiful months of October through December of 2019.Corn exports for the local 2018/19 marketing year are up 1.0 million tons to 42.0 million.Brazilian corn exports for the 2019/20 trade year(TY)are also projected 1.0 million tons higher to 39.5 million.Ukraine has been rapidly exporting corn,pushing the projection up 0.5 million tons to a record of 30.5 million.An ongoing trend of declining feed and residual use as well as food,seed,and industrial use(FSI)of corn in Ukraine frees additional supplies in this export-oriented country,which has recently boosted its port export capacity.With higher projected corn output and a healthy pace of sales,the European Union(EU)is expected to export an additional 0.4 million tons of the crop to reach 2.4 million.