麦格理-美股-互联网服务业-美国大型互联网企业2018年Q4预览-2019.1.24-23页.pdf

Please refer to page 21 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website January 2019 United States EQUITIES Source:FactSet,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Analysts Macquarie Capital(USA)Inc.Benjamin Schachter +1 212 231 0644 Ed Alter +1 212 231 1272 Angela Newell +1 212 231 6600 U.S.Large-Cap Internet 4Q18 Preview;Match and Social Look Good Key points Top picks are MTCH,IAC and FB heading into 4Q earnings.While cautious on TWTR,we think it is set up well into 4Q.Remain Neutral on AAPL,concerns on 19 slowdown in Services most high-margin businesses.Macro concerns could weigh on forward commentary from GOOG,AMZN and EBAY(activist newsflow will continue to be key driver for EBAY in NT).Event 4Q18 U.S.Large-cap internet earnings begin with AAPL and EBAY on 1/29.The Bottom Line We are most bullish on MTCH,IAC and FB heading into 4Q earnings,and while we are cautious on TWTR overall,think it is set up well into 4Q.We remain Neutral-rated on AAPL,given our concerns on a 19 slowdown in Services most high-margin businesses,while macro concerns could weigh on forward commentary from GOOG,AMZN and EBAY(activist newsflow will also continue to be a key driver for EBAY in the NT).We have limited visibility into trends at ANGI,though the LT story remains intact.On MTCH,we believe it could be one of the more defensive names in the space.Tinder should continue to be the key driver,while both emerging businesses and some of the legacy businesses could also have some momentum in 19.IAC will benefit from MTCHs strength,as well as its new disclosure and coming investor realization that Vimeo is a story worth following(the conglomerate discount still doesnt make sense to us).FB and TWTR should both show solid 4Q earnings and despite massive headline risk and regulatory concerns,we think the fundamental business of putting ads in front of users will remain strong as long as the users are there(and the users are still there!).We recently downgraded AAPL,and continue to believe that just as investors focus on Services,its most important high-margin drivers(App Store,Licensing,and Apple Care)will all slow in 19.AMZN is more difficult to predict.Its high-margin advertising business will be the story for 4Q and 19,but macro and regulatory concerns could weigh on the stock.For GOOG,as usual,it is incredibly difficult to have a high(or any level)conviction call.Its 23%y/y FX adj growth has to slow at some point and,given its size,obviously macro factors are key.Finally,while we love the TAM associated with the LT ANGIs story,we are unclear on how NT housing and macro issues will impact the business.Additionally,mgmt.has already signalled that 19 will be an investment year at ANGI.AMZNOutperform$2,100GOOGLOutperform$1,150FBOutperform$200MTCHOutperform$52ANGIOutperform$25IACOutperform$260AAPLNeutral$149EBAYNerutral$33TWTRNerutral$36RatingTarget$190 Neutral Neutral 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。Macquarie Research U.S.Large-Cap Internet 24 January 2019 2 AMZN:Outperform Rating,US$2,100 Target Fig 1 AMZN Macquarie Estimates vs.Consensus Source:Company data,FactSet,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 ($m except per share data)We believe 4Q was solid,but 1Q guidance and commentary could be more conservative given macro concerns.We expect in-line revenues and a potential bottom line beat,driven by advertising and AWS.Advertising will continue to be a margin driver through 19,in our view.Mgmt.continues to highlight its strategy of inventing products both on the tools side for advertisers as well as the customer side for purchase options,but do not have any plans to add paid advertising to Alexa.The Alexa ecosystem continues to grow,though the financial model beyond hardware sales and Music remains less clear.While AMZN continues to invest in many areas,we think that AMZN will continue to leverage its assets and grow its highest margin businesses(AWS,advertising,3P)faster than expected.Advertising Advertising will undoubtedly continue to be the fastest growing and highest margin business for AMZN for the foreseeable future.As we saw with AAPLs App Store,when high-margin,fast-growing businesses hit scale,investors will notice,even if it is not a large percentage of total sales,it can be a meaningful driver of operating income.We see AMZN advertising as a must-have buy for virtually all 3P sellers as well as large brands.With the Other line expected to rise 60%in our model in 19,to over$16B,we expect advertising to be a key driver for AMZN.Alexa AMZN continues to significantly invest in growing the Alexa ecosystem.In addition to device sales,we expect Alexa to broadly drive the Prime ecosystem while increasing retail sales,music subscriptions,home automation and security services,as well as other emerging businesses.However,the financial model beyond hardware sales and Music remains less clear.AMZNs priority is on expanding Alexas reach to places and experiences where it can be useful,particularly with smart home devices and security related services.We still think it is likely that AMZN enters the phone market again,either directly or via partners(other than GOOG and AAPL).It is hard to see how they dont do this given the view that Alexa could be a new pillar.AWS Despite increasing competition from GOOG,MSFT,and others,we see no change in AWS trend lines and expect it to remain the clear Cloud leader for the foreseeable future.With rev expected to hit$35B in 19,we think most investors already value AWS at 8x-10 x,or$280-$350B.We are reiterating our Outperform rating and$2,100 price target.AMZN reports 4Q18 earnings on Thursday,1/31,after the close.4Q18E1Q19EMacquarieStreet%DiffVarMacquarieStreet%DiffVarNet Revenue$72,061$71,8540.3%$207$60,923$61,001-0.1%($78)QvQ Chg27.4%27.0%-15.5%-15.1%-EPS(GAAP)$5.50$5.62-2.2%($0.12)$4.36$4.48-2.7%($0.12)2019E2020EMacquarieStreet%DiffVarMacquarieStreet%DiffVarNet Revenue$275,963$279,902-1.4%($3,939)$323,391$332,088-2.6%($8,697)YvY Chg18.7%20.4%-17.2%18.6%-EPS(GAAP)$25.07$27.19-7.8%($2.12)$43.73$39.779.9%$3.95Macquarie Research U.S.Large-Cap Internet 24 January 2019 3 Fig 2 AMZN 4Q18E Key Metrics Summary Source:Company data,FactSet,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 ($m except per share data)Fig 3 AMZN EV/EBITDA Valuation Trends Source:Company data,FactSet,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Income Statement4Q18E%RevsY/YQ/Q4Q17A%Revs3Q18A%RevsOnline Stores$38,92154%10%34%$35,38359%$29,06151%Retail Third-Seller Services$13,46919%28%30%$10,52317%$10,39518%Retail Subscription Services$4,0676%28%10%$3,1775%$3,6987%Physical Stores$4,7007%4%11%$4,5227%$4,2488%Other$3,6445%110%46%$1,7353%$2,4954%AWS Revenue$7,26010%42%9%$5,1138%$6,67912%Net Revenue$72,061100%19%27%$60,453$56,576100%Gross Profit$28,60439.7%30%21%$21,97336.3%$23,59241.7%EBIT(GAAP)$3,6385.0%71%-2%$2,1273.5%$3,7246.6%GAAP EPS$5.50-47%-4%$3.74-$5.75-Key Metrics4Q18E%RevsY/YQ/Q4Q17A%Revs3Q18A%RevsEBITDA(non-GAAP)$9,31313%36%4%$6,86411%$8,92016%CapEx$3,3035%-9%-1%$3,6206%$3,3526%FCF(CFFO-Cap Ex)$13,31218%51%154%$8,80615%$5,2369%FCF per share$26.46-49%153%$17.75-$10.45-Estimated%ChgActual15X20X25X30X35X40XJan-16Mar-16May-16Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19AMZN FY1 EV/EBITDAPrior-Year AverageMacquarie Research U.S.Large-Cap Internet 24 January 2019 4 AAPL:Neutral Rating,US$149 Target Fig 4 AAPL Macquarie Estimates vs.Consensus Source:Company data,FactSet,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 ($m except per share data)We downgraded AAPL on January 3.Beyond the well documented iPhone challenges,we continue to believe that Services will slow beginning in the March quarter.Specifically,we think the top three Services drivers(Licensing,App Store,and Apple Care)are all likely to slow in FY19 and the faster growing Services business(Music,iCloud,and Apple Pay)are not big enough to offset the slowdown(and Music margins are relatively low).Tough comps overall In AAPLs preannouncement one of the bright spots was that Services posted a solid 27.5%growth to$10.8B revs,including record China Services revs.However,1Q19 was the easiest comp of the year against 18.1%growth for F1Q18.From there,Services rev growth accelerated 12.4 points q/q to 30.5%for F2Q18,and finished the year with 28.2%growth for F3Q,and 27%for F4Q.The exact catalyst for the step-up is still unclear,but we believe it was broad-based across the renewed GOOG-TAC agreement,App Store,and higher Apple Care for iPhone X.Much of which may not be repeatable in 2019,leading to a headwind for Services in 2Q and the rest of the year where we expect slowing growth.The three key drivers of Services to slow We know the three top drivers of Services over the past 3 years have been Licensing,App Store,and AppleCare.We expect all three will slow in the coming quarters as tough comps and other issues impact growth rates.The App store has been overly-reliant on APAC for growth and is now 59%of all spending driven by China,Japan,and Korea.The strength of APAC has been a tailwind,but we think that could turn in 2019,led by first and foremost the freeze of new game registration in China that will start to become a more prominent drag on new game spending into next year.Licensing has been largely driven by AAPL and GOOGLs iOS default search agreement,and its widely believed that the deal was re-upped last year and 2019 will start comping against the higher rates with no similar lift.Apple Care is largely driven by growth in the installed base,but last year was also boosted by the price increase for the iPhone X.The smaller Services business Music,iCloud,and Apple Pay are not big enough to counter and pick up the slack to maintain current growth rates.App Store economic model could come under pressure As we have been highlighting,the economic model for the App Store will come under increasing competitive,legal,and regulatory,pressures.We believe that investors continue to underestimate its potential impact on earnings.If the App Store commission structure is lowered to 12%-20%,AAPL overall 20 EBIT would fall 7%-16%.China slowdown and regulatory issues around games are concerning Chinas hardware slowdown and regulatory issues/rev concentration around games will also impact App Store growth(China represents 40%of App Store revs and 90%of that is games).China has begun to approve new games in 2019,but thus far has not approved any games from Tencent or NetEase.Valuation reasonable,but risks to model are more concerning Apple trades at 10.5x 19 EPS and 7.7x EBITDA.We are reiterating our Neutral rating and$149 PT.AAPL reports F1Q19 earnings on Tuesday,1/29,after the close.MacquarieStreet%DiffVarMacquarieStreet%DiffVarRevenue$83,957$84,034-0.1%($77)$58,627$59,352-1.2%($724)QvQ Chg33.5%33.6%-30.2%-29.4%-EPS(GAAP)$4.16$4.17-0.2%($0.01)$2.55$2.66-3.9%($0.10)MacquarieStreet%DiffVarMacquarieStreet%DiffVarRevenue$255,495$259,557-1.6%($4,062)$262,020$269,828-2.9%($7,808)YvY Chg11.5%13.2%-2.6%4.0%-EPS(GAAP)$11.80$11.99-1.6%($0.19)$13.11$13.34-1.7%($0.23)Q1 FY19EQ2 FY19EFY20EFY19EMacquarie Research U.S.Large-Cap Internet 24 January 2019 5 Fig 5 AAPL F1Q19E Key Metrics Summary Source:Company data,FactSet,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 ($m except per share data)Fig 6 AAPL P/E Valuation Trends Source:Company data,FactSet,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 EstimatedActualIncome StatementQ1 FY19E%of RevsY/YQ/QQ1 FY18A%of RevsQ4 FY18A%of RevsiPhone Revenue$52,20662%-15%40%$61,57670%$37,18559%iPad Revenue$6,4678%10%58%$5,8627%$4,0897%Mac Revenue$7,1499%4%-4%$6,8958%$7,41112%Other Products Revenue$7,3559%34%74%$5,4896%$4,2347%Services Revenue$10,77913%27%8%$8,47110%$9,98116%Total Revenue$83,957100%-5%33%$88,293100%$62,900100%Cost of sales$52,05462%-4%34%$54,38162%$38,81662%Gross Profit$31,90438.0%-6%32%$33,91238.4%$24,08438.3%EBIT(GAAP)$23,20627.6%-12%44%$26,27429.8%$16,11825.6%EPS(GAAP)$4.16-7%43%$3.89-$2.91-Q1 FY19E%of RevsY/YQ/QQ1 FY18A%of RevsQ4 FY18A%of RevsD&A$2,6103.1%-5%-5%$2,7453.1%$2,7544.4%EBITDA(non-GAAP)$27,04832.2%-11%34%$30,31534.3%$20,21732.1%FCF(CFFO-Cap Ex)$4,7655.7%-81%-71%$25,48328.9%$16,48226.2%Chg9X11X13X15X17X19X21XJan-16Mar-16May-16Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19AAPL FY1 P/E(GAAP)Prior-Year AverageMacquarie Research U.S.Large-Cap Internet 24 January 2019 6 Fig 7 AAPL Product Forecasts vs.Consensus Source:Company data,FactSet,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 ($m except per share data)FY 2017FY 2018E 12/31/18 3/31/196/30/199/30/19 FY 2019E12/31/193/31/206/30/209/30/20FY 2020EYearAYearAQ1EQ2EQ3EQ4EYearEQ1EQ2EQ3EQ4EYearEiPhone Revenue-Historical/Forecasts141,319 166,699 52,206 32,095 24,948 31,020 140,268 49,115 30,195 23,471 29,183 131,965 y/y growth rate3.4%18.0%-15.2%-15.6%-16.6%-16.6%-15.9%-5.9%-5.9%-5.9%-5.9%-5.9%Total iPhone Units216.8 217.7 67.6 45.4 35.5 40.3 188.8 64.9 43.6 34.1 38.7 181.3 y/y growth rate2.3%0.4%-12.6%-13.0%-14.0%-14.0%-13.3%-4.0%-4.0%-4.0%-4.0%-4.0%iPhone ASP$652$766$773$706$702$769$743$757$692$688$754$728y/y growth rate1.1%17.4%-3.0%-3.0%-3.0%-3.0%-3.0%-2.0%-2.0%-2.0%-2.0%-2.0%iPhone Revenue-Consensus52,844 33,122 27,084 32,889 145,377 53,646 34,059 27,737 32,427 144,953 y/y growth rate-14.2%-12.9%-9.4%-11.6%-12.8%1.5%2.8%2.4%-1.4%-0.3%iPhone units-Consensus68.145.037.142.7192.9 67.945.737.542.4192.1 y/y growth rate-11.9%-13.8%-10.1%-9.0%-11.4%-0.3%1.6%0.9%-0.7%-0.4%iPhone ASP-Consensus$776$736$729$771$754$790$745$740$765$755y/y growth rate-2.6%1.1%0.7%-2.8%-1.6%1.8%1.2%1.5%-0.7%0.1%iPad Revenue-Historical/Forecasts19,222 18,805 6,467 4,432 5,619 4,717 21,235 6,729 4,566 5,788 4,860 21,943 y/y growth rate-6.8%-2.2%10.3%7.8%18.5%15.4%12.9%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.3%Total iPad Units43.8 43.5 13.7 9.4 11.9 10.0 45.0 14.0 9.5 12.0 10.1 45.6 y/y growth rate-4.0%-0.5%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.3%2.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.3%iPad Revenue-Consensus6,062 4,130 4,671 4,241 19,191 5,789 3,998 4,242 3,999 18,425 y/y growth rate3.4%0.4%-1.5%3.7%2.1%-4.5%-3.2%-9.2%-5.7%-4.0%iPad units-Consensus13.19.010.79.742.3 13.39.210.79.742.7 y/y growth rate-0.8%-0.9%-7.6%-0.2%-2.8%1.8%1.8%0.5%0.6%0.8%Mac Revenue-Historical/Forecasts25,850 25,484 7,149 5,703 5,203 7,411 25,466 7,292 5,817 5,307 7,559 25,976 y/y growth rate13.2%-1.4%3.7%-2.5%-2.4%0.0%-0.1%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Total Mac Units19.3 18.2 5.1 4.1 3.7 5.3 18.2 5.1 4.1 3.7 5.3 18.2 y/y growth rate4.1%-5.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Mac Revenue-Consensus7,313 5,894 5,659 7,185 25,930 7,163 5,946 5,709 6,953 25,716 y/y growth rate6.1%0.8%6.2%-3.0%1.8%-2.1%0.9%0.9%-3.2%-0.8%Mac Units-Consensus5.34.24.15.218.8 5.14.34.15.218.5 y/y growth rate3.2%2.2%10.0%-2.2%3.2%-2.6%2.1%0.1%0.2%-1.4%Other Products Revs-Historical/Forecast12,863 17,417 7,355 5,298 5,012 5,674 23,339 9,268 6,676 6,315 7,149 29,407 y/y growth rate15.5%35.4%34.0%34.0%34.0%34.0%34.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%Other Products Revs-Consensus7,008 4,879 4,495 5,071 21,742 7,677 5,344 5,38