麦格理-亚太地区-旅游业-菲律宾旅游业：新兴增长驱动力-2019.4.3-40页.pdf

Please refer to page 38 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website April 2019 Philippines EQUITIES Inside Emerging growth driver 2 Inbound tourism on an uptrend 9 Robust domestic tourism market 12 Tourism plays 15 Comparable valuations 21 Cebu Air(CEB PM)-Spreading its wings 23 Bloomberry Resorts(BLOOM PM)26 Ayala Land(ALI PM)29 Robinsons Retail Holdings(RRHI PM)32 Puregold Price Club(PGOLD PM)35 Tourist arrivals Source:DOT,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Number of domestic trips Source:Company data,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Analysts Macquarie Capital Securities(Philippines)Inc.Karisa Magpayo +63 2 857 0899 Gilbert Lopez +63 2 857 0892 Kervin Sisayan,CFA +63 2 857 0893 Tourism in the Philippines Emerging growth driver Key points We think tourism is becoming a key growth driver of the PH economy.Attractive opportunities abound for the tourism industry to further develop.Our top picks among tourism plays are CEB,BLOOM and ALI.Growing driver of the PH economy Tourism is becoming a key growth driver of the PH economy.Its contribution to GDP has gone up from 6%in 2010 to 12%in 2017.The industry employed 5.3m workers in 2017,or 13%of the countrys total employment,up from 11%in 2010.Tourist arrivals have registered a 10%CAGR over 2015-18,while domestic trips have risen at 20%since 2016 and already surpassed the governments 2022E target.Internal tourism(inbound and domestic)expenditure grew at a robust pace of 28%in 2017,taking its share of GDP to 19.6%up from 9.1%in 2010.Significant upside potential While the number of tourists(inbound and domestic)has been trending higher,we believe there is significant scope for further upside on the back of:1)stepped up marketing efforts by the government;2)rehabilitation of major tourist spots;3)accelerated infrastructure developmentswith a focus on improving existing and building new airports(international and domestic);and 4)increased investments by the private sector(especially in transport and accommodation).The government currently expects tourist arrivals and visitor receipts to register a CAGR of 14%and 16%,respectively,over 2018-22(government is revisiting targets for domestic tourism in light of stronger-than-expected performance).Ways to play the tourism thematic Direct plays:Key beneficiaries of a booming tourism industry are:Cebu Pacific(CEB PM),a leading carrier in the Philippines,with a dominant 53%domestic market share;Bloomberry Resorts(BLOOM PM),a gaming company that targets largely foreign players;and Ayala Land(ALI PM),a property developer with significant investments in hotels and resorts.PH consumer stocks with a tourism angle:Uptrend in tourist spending,expansion of tourism-related industries,creation of jobs and increase in wealth levels bode well for domestic consumption.We think Robinsons Retail(RRHI PM)is positioned to capture the increase in tourist spend.Puregold Price Club(PGOLD PM),meantime,also caters to institutional customers(hotels,restaurants)a way for it to also participate in the growth.PH tourism plays Sh price TP TSR Risk PE (x)EPS growth (%)PBV(x)ROE(%)Yield(%)LC Rec LC(%)2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E 2019E 2019E 2019E Direct tourism plays CEB 81.40 O 111.00 39.7 L 6.4 6.2 39.2 3.9 1.0 16.4 3.4 BLOOM 11.70 O 15.25 31.2 H 15.9 13.1 7.7 21.2 3.0 20.3 0.9 ALI 45.00 O 50.00 12.3 L 18.8 16.8 20.0 12.0 3.0 17.3 1.1 Picks within PH consumer space RRHI 79.00 O 95.00 21.1 L 24.2 20.4-16.4 18.6 2.1 8.9 0.9 PGOLD 47.70 O 55.50 17.3 L 20.2 17.3 1.2 16.7 2.1 11.5 0.9 Source:FactSet,Macquarie Research,April 2019.Priced as of 1 Apr 2019.6.06.67.18.212.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02016201720182019E2022ETourist arrivals(m)m+11.0%YoY+7.7%YoY+15.0%YoY79.396.7 97.076.379.382.585.889.20.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.020162017Nov-1820182019202020212022Estimated no.of trips(m)+21.9%YoYmDOT targetMacquarie Research Tourism in the Philippines 3 April 2019 2 Emerging growth driver We think the tourism industry is becoming a key growth driver of the Philippine economy.Growing contribution of tourism to the PH economy.In 2017,tourism contributed 12.2%to the economy1,up from just 6.2%in 2010(average in 2000-2010 was 6.0%).While 2018 figures have yet to be released,contribution of the tourism industry may have trended higher,considering the healthy growth of inbound and domestic visitors recorded last yearforeign tourist arrivals grew 7.7%(to 7.1m)in 2018.Meantime,the number of domestic trips had reached 97m as of November 2018,having already surpassed 2017s 96.7m and governments original target of 89.2m for 2022.Fig 1 Tourism direct gross value added(TDGVA)Fig 2 TDGVA as a%of GDP Source:Philippine Statistics Authority,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Source:Philippine Statistics Authority,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Fig 3 Visitor arrivals to the Philippines Fig 4 Estimated number of domestic trips Source:Department of Tourism,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Source:Department of Tourism,Philippine Statistics Authority,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Still small compared to neighbouring countries in the region The Philippines currently does not attract as many tourists as its regional peers,with tourist arrivals in the Philippines just one-fifth of the number in Thailand.Tourism receipts(from foreign travellers)in the Philippines also only accounts for 2.3%of GDP(nominal)vs 12.3%in Thailand.1 Measured by the share of Tourism Direct Gross Value Added(TDGVA)to nominal GDP;TDGVA was derived based on the Production Accounts of Tourism Industries and Other Industries and Total Domestic Supply and Internal Tourism Consumption 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,00020102011201220132014201520162017Tourism Direct Gross Value Added(TDGVA)-PmYoY changePm6.2%6.8%7.9%8.2%9.0%10.1%10.7%12.2%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%20102011201220132014201520162017Share of tourism to GDP6.06.67.15.25.45.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.4201620172018Tourist arrivals(m)m+11.0%YoY+7.7%YoY79.396.797.089.20.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.020162017Nov-182022 govt targetEstimated no.of trips(m)+21.9%YoYmMacquarie Research Tourism in the Philippines 3 April 2019 3 Fig 5 Tourist arrivals by country Fig 6 Visitor receipts by country(2018)Source:Department of Tourism(Philippines),Ministry of Tourism and Sports(Thailand),Tourism Malaysia,Singapore Tourism Board,Singapore Department of Statistics,Statistics Indonesia,Vietnam National Administration of Tourism,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Note:Philippines 2018 tourism receipts number is an estimate Source:Ministry of Tourism(Thailand),Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board(Thailand),Tourism Malaysia,Bank Negara Malaysia,Singapore Tourism Board,Singapore Department of Statistics,Philippine Statistics Authority,Department of Tourism(Philippines),Macquarie Research,April 2019 providing significant upside potential.We think there is significant scope to further grow the tourism sector in the Philippines,especially with the Philippine government putting greater emphasis on developing the tourism industry in the country.Stepped up marketing efforts.The Department of Tourism(DOT)is embarking on an aggressive marketing campaign to promote the Philippines to the international community.In February 2019,the DOT launched the refreshed version of its signature slogan Its More Fun in the Philippines,specifically highlighting sustainable tourism.The DOT is also seeking more partnerships with the private sector to promote and develop the countrys tourism products.Rehabilitation of major tourist spots.DOT is rehabilitating popular tourist spots(such as areas in Palawan,Bohol and Siargao)in the Philippines.Whilst visits to these places could take a hit initially,efforts to improve and clean up these sites have long-term and sustainable benefits.Alongside the rehabilitation,the DOT is also actively promoting alternative tourist destinations to help ease the initial impact of the rehabilitation.Accelerating infrastructure development.Infrastructure development is a key priority of the present administration,which is targeting to spend P8trn(US$154bn)on infrastructure in 2017-2022 under its Build,Build,Build program.Based on the governments National Tourism Development Plan(NTDP)for 2016-2022,P677bn is earmarked for public sector tourism infrastructure projects for 2017-2022(P2.3trn to be invested by the private sector).Notable is the increasing focus on improving existing and developing new gateways in the country,which is crucial to facilitate the growth of the tourism industry.According to the Department of Transportation(DOTr),18 airports(international and domestic)have already been constructed or rehabilitated/expanded,and there are 26 more airport projects in the pipeline(for construction or rehabilitation/expansion).Additionally,there are three big-ticket airport projects(rehabilitation,expansion)that have been proposed to the government by the private sector as follows:05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000201020112012201320142015201620172018ThailandMalaysiaSingaporeIndonesiaVietnamPhilippines000s2010-18 CAGRThailand=+11.6%,Malaysia=+0.6%,Singapore=+10.7%,Indonesia=+9.2%,Vietnam=+15.0%,Philippines=+6.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000ThailandMalaysiaSingaporePhilippinesTourism receipts(US$m)Tourism receipts as a%of nominal GDPUS$mMacquarie Research Tourism in the Philippines 3 April 2019 4 o Ninoy Aquino International Airport(NAIA,main airport in the Philippines):A consortium comprising seven of the countrys top conglomeratesAboitiz InfraCapital,AC Infrastructure Holdings,Alliance Global Group,Asias Emerging Dragon Corp,Filinvest Development Corp,JG Summit Holdings and Metro Pacific(with Singapores Changi Airports International as the technical partner)submitted a P350bn proposal in Feb 2018 to expand existing terminals and build new taxiways at the NAIA to increase the airports annual capacity from 35m passengers to 47m in two years and 65m in four years.The consortium was granted original proponent status in Sep 2018,and is hoping for the Swiss challenge in mid-2019(DOTr gave the consortium until 30 Apr 2019 to come to an agreement with the government on certain provisions of the deal).o Clark International Airport:In December 2018,a consortium(North Luzon Airport Consortium(composed of JG Summit Holdings,Filinvest Development Corp,Philippine Airport Ground Support Solutions and Changi Airport Philippines was awarded the O&M contract for the Clark International Airport under a 25-year concession.The consortium is investing P6bn to add a new terminal,which will bring total annual capacity of the airport to 8m passengers(from the current 4m).o Bulacan airport(new):San Miguel Corp(SMC)is proposing to construct a new international airport that will serve as an alternative to the congested NAIA,to be located in the province of Bulacan(26km north of Metro Manila).SMC was granted original proposal status,with the Swiss challenge slated by end-March 2019.The P735bn project involves four parallel runways and a terminal that can accommodate 100m passengers every year(Phase 1 involve two runways and a terminal with an annual capacity of 35m passengers,to be completed in 3-4 years).Fig 7 Philippine government infrastructure spending Fig 8 Budget for 75 flagship infrastructure projects Source:Department of Transportation,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Source:BSP Investor Relations Office,Macquarie Research,April 2019 5.4%6.1%6.8%6.9%6.9%7.3%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000201720182019202020212022Government spending on infrastructure(Pbn)%of GDPPbnRailways,24,913.6,61%Roads and Bridges,9,024.4,22%Airports,2,323.7,6%Water,1,462.2,3%Flood Control,966.2,2%Mass Transit,1,671.3,4%New Cities,Ports,Energy,645.1,2%in US$mTotal=US$41,006.5mMacquarie Research Tourism in the Philippines 3 April 2019 5 Fig 9 Medium-term tourism infrastructure program-Public Fig 10 Medium-term tourism infrastructure program-Private Source:NTDP,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Source:NTDP,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Fig 11 Airport,Railway,Landport and Seaport projects Airports Railways Landports Seaports Completed(constructed,rehabilitated,expanded,upgraded)18 77km(existing)1 167 To be completed 26 1,900 km 2 92 Night-rated For night-rating Airports 22.0 20 Source:Company data,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Secondary airports can help fuel international and domestic air traffic volumes o Most tourists enter the Philippines via the airport in Manila(NAIA)before travelling to tourist destinations located in the islands/provincial areas(2017 data show Manila accounting for 53%of total seats).This,however,could change moving forward(tourists bypassing Manila and flying direct to provincial cities instead)on the back of ongoing expansion,upgrade,and/or development of regional airports resulting in greater ease of travelling to top tourist spots in the country.o The Civil Aeronautics Board(CAB)expects both international and domestic air traffic volumes to increase 10%in 2019(vs+10%for international and+12%for domestic in 2018),with the added boost potentially coming from the secondary airports.According to CAB,airlines are mounting more flights in other hubs due to slot and capacity constraints at the countrys main gateway NAIAleading domestic carrier Cebu Air(CEB PM,P82.70,Outperform,TP:P111.00)also indicated that demand for direct connectivity to certain tourist destinations continues to rise.050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000201720182019202020212022AirportsCruise portsRoadsRailwaySite infrastructureTourism Enterprise Zone(TEZ)Pm56,15480,34078,22079,168114,637268,5172017-2022=P677,036m0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000201720182019202020212022Transport unitsAccommodationAircraft acquisitionPm272,163303,848346,419396,222452,910520,3322017-2022=2,291,894mMacquarie Research Tourism in the Philippines 3 April 2019 6 Fig 12 Top Philippine destinations*(2017)Fig 13 Airline capacity outside of Metro Manila Source:International Air Transport Association(IATA),Macquarie Research,April 2019;Note:*in terms of seats Source:International Air Transport Association(IATA),Macquarie Research,April 2019 Fig 14 Seat capacity:South Korea Cebu route Fig 15 Seat capacity:China Cebu route Source:International Air Transport Association(IATA),Macquarie Research,April 2019 Source:International Air Transport Association(IATA),Macquarie Research,April 2019 Fig 16 Passenger traffic Source:Business Mirror,Macquarie Research,April 2019 Manila53%Cebu14%Davao5%Boracay5%Clark2%Iloilo3%CDO2%Puerte Princessa Palawan2%Bacolod2%Others12%Destinations 2017-1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000CebuDavaoClarkIloiloSeatsInbound20142015201620172018-100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,0002015201620172018SeatsSouth Korea-Cebu-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,0002015201620172018SeatsChina-Cebu24.426.929.524.827.830.60