美国在世界经济中的作用——理解全球化（英文）.pdf

Anthony ElsonThe United States in the World Economy Making Sense of Globalization The United States in the World EconomyGoverning Global Finance:The Evolution and Reform of the International Financial Architecture(2011)Globalization and Development:Why East Asia Surged Ahead and Latin America Fell Behind(2014)The Global Financial Crisis in Retrospect:Evolution,Resolution and Lessons for Prevention(2017)Previous Books By This AuThorAnthonyElsonThe United States in the World EconomyMaking Sense of GlobalizationISBN 978-3-030-20687-1 ISBN 978-3-030-20688-8(eBook)https:/doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20688-8 The Editor(s)(if applicable)and The Author(s),under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019This work is subject to copyright.All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher,whether the whole or part of the material is concerned,specifically the rights of translation,reprinting,reuse of illustrations,recitation,broadcasting,reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way,and transmission or information storage and retrieval,electronic adaptation,computer software,or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.The use of general descriptive names,registered names,trademarks,service marks,etc.in this publication does not imply,even in the absence of a specific statement,that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.The publisher,the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication.Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty,express or implied,with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AGThe registered company address is:Gewerbestrasse 11,6330 Cham,SwitzerlandAnthonyElsonSchool of Advanced International StudiesJohns Hopkins UniversityWashington,DC,USATo Dolly,My Lifetime Love,Wise Counselor and Delightful CompanionviiThis is the fourth book on economic and financial globalization that I have written over the past decade.Each of these books has evolved in some way out of my professional training and experience as an interna-tional economist,a career official of the International Monetary Fund(IMF),an economic consultant with the World Bank and a lecturer at Duke,Johns Hopkins and Yale universities.The writing of my first book,Governing Global Finance:The Evolution and Reform of the International Financial Architecture,began when I was teaching as the AGIP Professor of International Economics at the European Center of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies(SAIS)during the period of the global financial crisis(200809).It reflected my attempt to understand the origins and evolution of the crisis and the defects in the international financial architecture that made it possible.That book tried to explain the financial crisis in the context of the evolution of financial globalization and the weaknesses in the interna-tional institutional arrangements(or“architecture”)of the post-World War 2 era that were designed to promote global financial stability.It was also intimately related to my experience at the IMF and the focus of teach-ing that I undertook at the Center for International Development of the Duke University School of Public Policy.My last book,The Global Financial Crisis in Retrospect:Its Evolution,Resolution and Lessons for Prevention,in many respects was an extension of my first book and provided a more in-depth analysis of the causes,effects and resolution of the crisis with the benefit of hindsight and the extensive analytical work that had been conducted in the decade since the crisis PrefAceviii PrEFACEerupted.One of the outgrowths of that crisis has been a critical evaluation in the United States and other countries of the costs and benefits of glo-balization at the level of both analytical and political discourse that culmi-nated in the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2016.This current book represents an attempt to identify and evaluate those costs and benefits for the United States,which has been a central force in the global economy and in the creation and evolution of the lib-eral economic international order that has underpinned globalization in the post-WW2 era.It is my view that the benefits of globalization for the United States have not been well understood and that its costs have been overstated in public debate,which has led to an anti-globalist stance in the current foreign economic policy of the US government that will impose long-term economic costs on the country.In the preparation of this book,I have drawn on and extended my thinking on topics of financial global-ization that I had developed in my two earlier books.The one book that does not fit within the sequence of books on global-ization that I have just described is my second book,Globalization and Development:Why East Asia Surged Ahead and Latin America Fell Behind.While related to the general topic of globalization,it focuses primarily on the contrasting development experiences of East Asia and Latin America and how these can be understood,among other things,in terms of each regions degree of integration and engagement with the global economy.East Asia,as a region of successful development,has been very aggressive in linking its rapid pace of development to the goal of export promotion and integration with the global economy,whereas Latin America,by contrast,has traditionally been far more inward-oriented and less successful in achieving sustained development through the growth of its export sector.My interest in these two regions relates directly to my experience at the IMF,where for many years I was responsible for the management of the Funds macroeconomic surveillance and financial assistance operations with a number of countries in East Asia and Latin America.I first tried to distill the lessons of that experience by teaching a course on comparative economic development at Johns Hopkins SAIS that culminated in the publication of that book.In many respects,these four books represent my professional biography in that they cover a range of topics and themes that I have been interested in since the time of my graduate training at Columbia University,first as a student at the School of International and Public Affairs and then in the Ph.D.program in Economics at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences.ix PrEFACE It was at that time that I developed my interest in the economic develop-ment of Latin America and learned about the unique and essential global responsibilities of the IMF and World Bank.While at Columbia,I was fortunate to have been selected as one of the first three summer interns at the IMF,which led to my entry as a career official and over time a variety of assignments and positions up to the deputy director level in both its country and its functional activities.As both a mandarin-style interna-tional bureaucracy and a professional group of economists,the IMF is an exceptionally strong and influential organization,notwithstanding its rela-tively small size(less than 3000 staff members)and wide-ranging respon-sibilities in macroeconomic surveillance,financial assistance,research,statistics,technical assistance and training.In the final stage of the preparation of this book,I wish to acknowledge the excellent assistance I received from Yang Liu,a graduate student in the M.A.program of Johns Hopkins SAIS,in the finalization of tables and figures for the book and for the answers he provided to a number of que-ries on which I needed specific responses in my final review of the book chapters.Washington,DC,USA AnthonyElsonxi 1 The Benefits and Perils of Globalization 1 2 Key Markers in the Global Integration of the US Economy 19 3 Trade Globalization and the US Economy 43 4 The Special Role of the United States in the Global Financial System 75 5 The United States as a Major Destination for Migratory Flows 111 6 The Impact of Globalization on Income and Wealth Inequality in the United States 131 7 Current US Economic Policy and the Outlook for Globalization 151 8 The Governance of Globalization:National and International Dimensions 173conTenTsxii CONTENTS 9 The United States and Globalization:Where Do Things Stand?203 Index 223xiiiAB Appellate Body of World Trade Organizations Dispute Settlement BodyAIG American International GroupALMP Active labor market policiesBIS Bank for International SettlementsBITs Bilateral investment treatiesCDOs Collateralized debt obligationsCDS Credit default swapsCFTC Commodities Futures Trading CorporationDSB Dispute Settlement Body of the World Trade OrganizationGATT General Agreement on Tariffs and TradeGSEs Government-sponsored enterprisesGVCs Global value chainsILO International Labor OrganizationIMF International Monetary FundIOM International Organization for MigrationISDS Investor-state dispute settlementITO International Trade OrganizationLIEO Liberal International Economic OrderMBS Mortgage-backed securitiesMFN Most-favored nationNAFTA North American Free Trade AgreementOECD Organization of Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentOTC Over-the-counterPBOC Peoples Bank of ChinaPIIE Peterson Institute for International EconomicsrEPOs repurchase agreementsLisT of ABBreviATionsxiv LIST OF ABBrEVIATIONSrTAs regional trade agreementsSDrs Special Drawing rightsSOEs State-owned enterprisesSPV/SIVs Special purpose vehicles/special investment vehiclesTAA Trade Adjustment AssistanceTPP Trans-Pacific PartnershipTrIPs Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property rightsUNESCO United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural OrganizationUNHCr United Nations High Commissioner for refugeesUNWrA United Nations Works relief AgencyUSMCA United States Mexico and Canada Trade AgreementWTO World Trade OrganizationxvFig.1.1 Flow of goods,services and finance(19762015).(Source:World Trade Organization;External Wealth of Nations database)8Fig.1.2 Share of foreign-born US population(in percent).(Source:US Census Bureau and the American Community Survey)9Fig.1.3 Global merchandise exports and imports as a ratio to global GDP(in percent,18272017).(Source:OurWorldinData.org;World Bank)11Fig.2.1 U.S.trade openness ratio from 1950 to 2017,ratio of exports and imports of merchandise trade(goods and services)to GDP(in percent).(Source:World Trade Organization;U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis)23Fig.2.2 Domestic saving,investment and current account balance for the United States as a ratio to GDP(in percent).Notes:Gross domestic saving includes a statistical discrepancy.(Source:US Bureau of Economic Analysis)27Fig.2.3 real trade-weighted foreign exchange value of the dollar since 01/1973.(Source:Federal reserve Bank of St.Louis database(FrED);data are in real terms(March 1973=100)28Fig.2.4(a)Chinn-Ito capital account openness index for advanced economies and developing and emerging market economies(19702016).(Source:The Chinn-Ito Index(http:/web.pdx.edu/ito/Chinn-Ito_website.htm).(b)Chinn-Ito capital account openness index for advanced economies and developing and emerging market countries(decennial average).(Source:The Chinn-Ito Index(http:/web.pdx.edu/ito/Chinn-Ito_website.htm)31LisT of figuresxvi LIST OF FIGUrESFig.2.5 Foreign assets and liabilities as a ratio to GDP for the United States and advanced economies(in percent).(Source:External Wealth of Nations database(http:/www.philiplane.org/EWN.html)33Fig.4.1(a)Cumulative external imbalances as a ratio to GDP for the United States(in percent;19762017).(Source:International Monetary Fund,International Financial Statistics and BOP/IIP Statistics).(b)Cumulative external imbalances for the United States in trillions of dollars(19762017).(Source:International Monetary Fund,International Financial Statistics and BOP/IIP Statistics)88Fig.4.2 Global imbalances as a percentage of world GDP.(Source:World Economic Outlook,October 2018,International Monetary Fund)91Fig.6.1(a)Share of income by population group in the United States.(Source:The World Wealth and Income Database(www.wid.world).(b)Share of wealth by population group in the United States.(Source:Gabriel Zucman“Global Wealth Inequality”(2019)(http:/gabriel-zucman.eu/)1331 The Author(s)2019A.Elson,The United States in the World Economy,https:/doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20688-8_1CHAPTER 1The Benefits andPerils ofGlobalization1 An Overview OftheBOOkGlobalization was a major theme of the 2016 presidential election in the United States.Both Donald Trump,on the right,and Bernie Sanders,on the left,pursued strong populist campaigns in associating globalization,and US trade policy in particular,with major adverse effects on American workers and the US economy more generally.A common theme of their campaign rhetoric was that trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA)have destroyed US jobs.This outcome has allegedly been the result of relocating auto-manufacturing plants to Mexico to take advantage of lower wage costs in that country and duty-free access to this country.There were also complaints in the campaign about imports of manufactured goods from China,resulting from its major drive to industrialize and its access to the US market on a virtually duty-free basis as a member of the World Trade Organization(WTO).As a result,these imports have led to the closing of factories in the United States and the loss of US jobs that could not match the cost advantage of imports from China.In addition,this cost advantage has allegedly been magnified by Chinas policy of currency manipulation that was aimed at maintaining an artificially low exchange rate for the renminbi.In the field of immigration,the complaints raised by Mr.Trump were particularly stri-dent,especially toward Mexicans.(These claims are fully analyzed in sub-sequent chapters.)2The focus on the perils of globalization for the United States in the 2016 presidential election was matched by similar complaints about the negative effects of globalization in more recent election campaigns in France and Germany,as well as the United Kingdoms earlier decision to withdraw from the European Union(“Brexit”).Altogether these develop-ments have led some to speculate that the advanced countries are entering into an unchartered phase of globalization or possibly some reversal in the expansion of the liberal international economic order that was established after World War II(WW2).While there may be validity to certain aspects of the claims raised in the 2016 US presidential campaign summarized above,it is also true that they provide a very selective and partial view of the effects of trade poli