美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国饲料展望-20200615-19页.pdf

Approved by USDAs World Agricultural Outlook Board Feed Outlook Tom Capehart Olga Liefert David Olson Lower Corn for Ethanol Reduces 2019/20 Use 2019/20 corn production is projected down 45.4 million bushels on reductions to harvested area and estimated yield.Diminished supply is largely offset by a 50-million-bushel decrease in corn for ethanol this month,for a market year total of 4,900 million bushels.The 50-million-bushel decrease in corn food,seed,and industrial use leaves 2019/20 projected disappearance at 13,780 million bushels.Carryin for 2020/21 is raised 4.6 million bushels.There were a few other minor changes to the feed grains balance sheets and prices are steady from last month.Globally,with higher projected use more than offsetting the marginal increase in supplies,2020/21 coarse grain ending stocks are projected down this month.Corn trade for 2019/20 involves two offsetting changes,with higher Argentine and lower Brazilian exports.Chinas punitive tariffs affect the barley market,reducing Australian exports and leaving Australia with higher barley supplies in the face of better crop prospects.Economic Research Service|Situation and Outlook Report Next release is July 14,2020 FDS-20f|June 15,2020In this report:Domestic Outlook International Outlook Domestic Outlook Corn Planting Continues at Brisk Pace The 2020/21 crop was 97 percent planted,based on surveys released in the National Agricultural Statistics Service(NASS)Crop Progress report for the week of June 7.This compares favorably with last year at this time,when plantings reached only 78 percent due to excessive moisture and is higher than the 5-year average of 94 percent.Dry,mild weather conditions in Minnesota enabled plantings to be completed,while North Carolina and Iowa planted 99 percent of their crops.Illinois,South Dakota,and Texas crops were 98 percent planted.North Dakota was the only major corn producing State with less than 90 percent in the ground.Emergence followed the same patternwith North Carolina,Iowa,Minnesota,and Texas leading.Planted area for 2020/21 is projected unchanged from last month at 97.0 million acres,which,if realized,would produce a record-high corn crop of 15,995 million bushels at the projected weather-adjusted trend yield of 178.5 bushels per acre.This assumes normal planting progress and summer growing season weather,and the historical relationship between planted and harvested area.The NASS Acreage report will be released on June 30,providing the first 0.00.10.10.20.20.3Ending stocksUse,totalExportsDomestic,totalEthanol for fuelFSISupply,totalImportsProductionBeginning stocksPercent ChangeNote:FSI=Food,seed,and industrial.Source:USDA,Economic Research Service Feed Grain Database.Figure 1Corn supply and use:percent change from last months forecast(2020/21)2 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDAnQtPpNuMzR7NdN9PnPoOtRmMkPqQqOfQqRrO6MpOtNNZmPyQMYpPsOsurvey-based area estimate for the 2020/21 corn crop,based primarily on data collected in the first 2 weeks of June.Supplies at this level of production would be 18,123 million bushels,given a projected carryin of 2,103 million bushels and imports of 25 million.There is no change in projected use for 2020/21.The 4.6-million-bushel reduction in carryin from 2019/20 is passed through to ending stocks of 3,323 million bushels.The season average price received by farmers is unchanged from last month at$3.20 per bushel.02040608010012014016018020001020304050607080901001988 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16 18/19Bushels/acreMillion acresFigure 2U.S.corn harvested area and yieldSources:USDA,Economic Research Service with data from National Agricultural Statistics Service,QuickStats,and USDA,World Agricultural Outlook Board,Crop Projections,2020.Harvested area(left axis)Yield(right axis)151101151201251Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Dollars/short tonNo.2 yellow cornDDGS Cent ILSource:USDA,Economic Research Service(ERS)using data from the ERS Feed Grains Database and USDA,Agricultural Marketing Services.Figure 3Monthly prices for Central Illinois no.2 yellow corn and corn distillers dried grain3 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDA The 2019/20 crop is estimated 45.4 million bushels lower.Yield is lowered 0.4 bushels per acre to 167.4 million bushels.Resulting supply is 15,883 million bushels.123456789Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Dollars/bushelSorghumCornSources:USDA,Economic Research Service,Feed Grains Database and USDA,Agricultural Marketing Service.Figure 4Monthly#2 grain sorghum and yellow corn prices for Kansas City-1.2-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.4Ending stocksUse,totalExportsDomestic,totalEthanol for fuelFSISupply,totalImportsProductionBeginning stocksPercent ChangeNote:FSI=Food,seed,and industrial.Source:USDA,Economic Research Service Feed Grain Database.Figure 5Corn supply and use:percent change from last months forecast(2019/20)4 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDASocial Distancing Restrictions Continue to Crimp 2019/20 Fuel Demand Continued restrictions on commercial activity eroded fuel demand,and thus corn for ethanol in 2019/20.A slower than expected rebound in Energy Information Administration(EIA)weekly gasoline use and ethanol production took 50 million bushels from corn for ethanol to 4,900 million bushels,lowering total use by that amount.Vehicle miles driven plunged to 5,258 million miles per day in April(according to EIA estimates),compared with pre-COVID levels of 8,179 million in January.May ethanol production,based on weekly EIA data,is estimated just under 30 million gallons per day,compared with 24 million gallons per day in April,still historically low levels.May 2019 saw 44 million gallons per day.Export Markets for Corn Co-products and Ethanol Lag Ethanol exports were sharply lower(according to U.S.Commerce Department,Bureau of the Census data)in April,as Brazil cut imports due to increased domestic production and China remained essentially absent.Other countriesnotably India,Mexico,South Korea and Canadamade up some of the slack in April.Exports for April totaled 99.4 million gallon,of which 23.8 million were purchased by Brazil,the lowest level since October 2019.For the 2019/20 marketing year to date,ethanol exports total 1,051.6 million gallons,compared with 02468101214161820198891/9294/9597/9800/0103/0406/0709/1012/1315/1618/19Feed and residualExportsOther food,seed,and industrial usesEthanolEnding stocksNote:Marketing year 2019/20 and 2020/21 are projected.Source:USDA,World Agricultural Outlook Board,World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.Figure 6U.S.corn utilizationBillion bushels5 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDA1,076.5 million during the same period in 2018/19.Dried Distillers Grain(DDG)exports also fell compared with last year,as prices rose due to limited ethanol production.For the first 8 months of the marketing year,DDG shipments are 4 percent lower at 7.7 million short tons.However,April shipments were 17 percent lower than April last year at 0.84 million short tons.Although China was previously a major buyer of U.S.DDGs,they pulled out of the market in 2016,leaving it to Mexico and protein-hungry Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam,South Korea,and Indonesia.The EU is also a major buyer.1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.5Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulyAug.2016/172017/182018/192019/20Source:USDA,Economic Research Service using data from U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,January 2020 Grain Inspections.Million metric tonsFigure 7Monthly U.S.corn exports050100150200250Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulyAug.Figure 8U.S.fuel ethanol exports 2017/18 World2018/19 World2019/20 WorldSource:USDA,Economic Research Service with data from U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census.1,000 gallon.6 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDAU.S.Feed Grain Use Lowered U.S.feed grain disappearance for 2020/21 is projected at 391.6 million metric tons,25.8 million above 2019/20.Feed and residual use,projected at 158.1 million tons,is 8.9 million higher than the 2019/20 estimate.FSI use,at 173.2 million tons,is 7.1 million higher than the revised 2019/20 projectionwhich accounts for a 1.3-million ton decrease in corn for ethanol.Exports,at 60.3 million tons,are unchanged from last month.Total feed grain disappearance in 2019/20 is estimated at 365.8 million tons.Grain Consuming Animal Units Grain consuming animal units(GCAU)for 2020/21 are projected at 102.43 million units,1.81 million lower,largely due to a drop in forecast cattle on feed inventory and to a lesser extent lower layers and turkey numbers relative to last month.For 2019/20,the estimate of about 102.00 million units is essentially unchanged from last month.Feed and Residual Use:Four Feed Grains and Wheat On a September-August basis,feed and residual use for the four feed grains and wheat in 2020/21 are projected at 160.5 million metric tons.This is 0.3 million below last months forecast and 7.2 million higher than last years estimate of 153.3 million.The month-to-month decline is due to lower forecast wheat feeding.Few Changes in Sorghum,Barley,and Oats Balance Sheets Projected sorghum supplies for 2020/21 are lowered 5 million bushels,to 381.2 million on lower carryin due to increased exports in 2019/20.With all use categories unchanged,ending stocks are lowered a corresponding 5 million bushels to 26.2 million bushels.2019/20 sorghum exports are projected up 10 million bushels to 210 million due to continued strong demand from China.As a result,feed and residual use and ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels each to 95.0 million and 30.2 million bushels respectively.The sorghum season average price received by farmers is unchanged at$3.25 per bushel and$3.20 per bushel for 2019/20 and 2020/21 respectively.7 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDA There are no changes in the barley balance sheet from last month for both 2019/20 and 2020/21.The projected season average price received by farmers for barley is unchanged at$4.70 per bushel and$4.30 per bushel in 2019/20 and 2020/21 respectively.024681012Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Million bushelsFigure 9U.S.sorghum for ethanol use by monthNote:Months for which data were withheld to avoid disclosure are shown as null.Source:USDA Economic Research Service using data from USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Grains Crushings and Co-Products.010203040506070809002468101214198891/9294/9597/9800/0103/0406/0709/1012/1315/1618/19Bushels/acreMillion acresFigure 10U.S.sorghum harvested area and yieldSources:USDA,Economic Research Service with data from USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service,Quick Stats and USDA,World Agricultural Outlook Board,World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.Harvested area(left axis)Yield(right axis)8 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDA Projected oat supply for 2019/20 is increased 3 million bushels on larger imports from Canada,bringing supplies to 185.0 million bushels.The increase in supply is offset by a 3-million bushel increase in feed and residual use to 73 million bushels.Total use is now projected at 156.0 million bushels,leaving ending stocks unchanged.The projected season average price received by farmers for oats is unchanged at$2.85 per bushel and$2.50 per bushel in 2019/20 and 2020/21 respectively.0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00200.001866/671871/721876/771881/821886/871891/921896/971901/021906/071911/121916/171921/221926/271931/321936/371941/421946/471951/521956/571961/621966/671971/721976/771981/821986/871991/921996/972001/022006/072011/122016/17Bushels per harvested acre CornSorghumBarleyOatsFigure 11Long run historical yields of feed grainsSource:USDA,Economic Research Service Feed Grain Database.9 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDA 10110210310410510610710810910Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulyAug.2016/172017/182018/192019/20Source:USDA,Economic Research Service using data from U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,January 2020 Grain Inspections.Thousand metric tonsFigure 12Monthly U.S.sorghum exports10 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDAInternational Outlook Coarse Grain Production Getting Larger World coarse grain production is projected to reach 1,484.6 million tons in 2020/21,an increase of 3.2 million from last months forecast.The largest increases are for European Union(EU)and Australian barley,and Brazilian corn.Partly offsetting is projected lower barley output in Ukraine,Russia and India.For a summary of changes to the production of coarse grains,see table A1;for information on production changes by country and by crop,see table A2 below.While 2019/20 harvests in the Northern Hemisphere were generally completed months ago,in the Southern Hemisphere crops are still growing and being harvested.Brazils second-crop corn harvest for 2019/20 starts in late May and continues through August 2020.Considering the in-country and in-state area estimates,as well as high domestic corn prices at the time of Region or countryProduction Change from previous month1YoY Change2CommentsWorld1,484.6+3.2+78.1Foreign1,064.1+3.2+16.9Coarse grain production for both 2019/20 and 2020/21 is projected higher.See table A2 below for details.United States420.5No change+61.2See section on U.S.domestic output.World1,188.5+1.6+75.0Foreign782.2+1.6+14.6Corn production is projected higher for Brazil and Zambia.For 2019/20,corn output is revised for South Africa,Paraguay,and India.See table A2 below.United States406.3No change+60.4See section on U.S.domestic output.World155.3+1.1+1.0Foreign151.3+1.1+0.7Higher projected barley production in Australia and the EU,partlyoffset by declines in Russia,Ukraine,and India.See table A2 below.United States4.0No change+0.3See section on U.S.domestic output.World24.8+0.5+2.4Foreign23.8+0.5+2.1Higher projected production in Australia.See table A2 below.United States1.0No change+0.3See section on U.S.domestic output.1Change from previous month.No production changes are made for sorghum,rye,millet,and mixed grains this month.2 YoY:year over year changes.For changes and notes by country,see table A2 below.Source:USDA,Foreign Agricultural Service,Production,Supply and Distribution online database.OATSTable A1-World and U.S.coarse grain production at a glance(2020/21),June 2020Million tonsCoarse grain production(total)World production of coarse grains by type of grainCORNBARLEY11 Feed Outlook/FDS-20f/June 15,2020 Economic Research Service,USDAplanting,corn area for the second crop in Brazil is projected 0.2 million hectares higher this month.The region produces on average two thi