美国防部-加强阿富汗的安全与稳定(地缘政治)（英文）-2019.7-92页.pdf

Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan June 2019 Report to Congress In Accordance With Section 1225 of the Carl Levin and Howard P.“Buck”McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015(P.L.113-291),as amended.The estimated cost of this report for the Department of Defense is approximately$304,528 for the Fiscal Year 2019.This includes$17,000 in expenses and$304,511 in DoD labor.Generated on Jun 27,2019 RefID:E-247BED4 This report is submitted in accordance with Sections 1225 and 1532 of the Carl Levin and Howard P.Buck McKeon National Defense Authorization Act(NDAA)for Fiscal Year(FY)2015(P.L.113-291),as amended by Sections 1213 and 1531 of the NDAA for FY 2016(P.L.114-92),Sections 1215 and 1521 of the NDAA for FY 2017(P.L.114-328),and Sections 1215 and 1521 of the NDAA for FY 2018(P.L.115-91);Section 1223 of the NDAA for FY 2019(P.L.115-232);Section 1216 of the NDAA for FY 2016(P.L.114-92);addresses p.348 of the FY 2020 House Appropriations Committee-Defense Report on H.R.2968(Rpt.116-84.);and provides information sought as indicated on p.264 of Senate Report 116-48 to accompany S.1790,National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2020.It includes a description of the strategy of the United States for enhancing security and stability in Afghanistan,a current and anticipated threat assessment,and a description and assessment of the size,structure,strategy,budget,and financing of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.This report was prepared in coordination with the Secretary of State and is the eighth in a series of reports required semi-annually through calendar year 2020.This report describes efforts to enhance security and stability in Afghanistan from December 1,2018,through May 31,2019.This report complements other reports and information about Afghanistan provided to Congress and is not intended to be the single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States,its coalition partners,or Afghanistan.A classified annex accompanies this report.The next report will include an analysis of efforts to enhance security and stability in Afghanistan from June 1 through November 30,2019.I TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary.1Section 1 Strategy and Objectives.31.1 U.S.Strategy in Afghanistan.31.2 U.S.Objectives in Afghanistan.41.3 U.S.Counterterrorism Mission.61.4 NATO-led Resolute Support Mission.71.5 Building Institutional Capability.131.6 Peace negotiations.151.7 Indications of Progress.16Section 2 Threat Assessment.172.1 Importance of Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations.172.2 Current Security Conditions.182.3 Civilian Casualties.252.4 Security of Afghan Women and Girls.29Section 3 Overview of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.303.1 ANDSF Roadmap Progress.313.2 ANDSF Structure.333.3 Progress on Developing Ministry Capacity and Capability.34SECTION 4 Ministry of Defemse and Afghan National Army.454.1 Ministry of Defense.454.2 Afghan National Army.51Section 5 Ministry of Interior and Afghan National Police.715.1 Ministry of Interior.715.2 Afghan National Police.76Section 6 Financing the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.806.1 Stewardship and Accountability.806.2 U.S.Contributions.806.3 International Contributions.816.4 Afghan Government Contributions.82Annex A Acronyms.84 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The principal goal of the South Asia Strategy is a durable and inclusive settlement to the war in Afghanistan that protects the United States homeland from terrorist attacks.General Millers new operational design synchronizes U.S.counterterrorism(CT)capabilities with increased Afghan National Defense and Security Forces(ANDSF)operations and focuses NATO Resolute Support Missions Train,Advise,and Assist(TAA)efforts to the“point of need.”This model has restored the Coalitions tactical initiative and put heavy pressure on the Taliban.The objective of the operational design is to bring the Taliban to the bargaining table and to provide strong incentives for them to engage in meaningful negotiations with the U.S.and Afghan governments.The injection of new military capabilities and operational authorities coupled with the continued growth of the Afghan Air Force(AAF)and Afghan Special Security Forces(ASSF),have increased the effectiveness and efficiency of the United States small footprint military campaign.Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad,the Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation(SRAR),remains engaged in talks with the Taliban achieve a peace agreement that safeguards the U.S.homeland and could lead to a reduction in the number of U.S.forces deployed in Afghanistan.As the SRAR has stated,any comprehensive peace agreement will be made up of four interconnected parts:counterterrorism assurances;troop withdrawal;intra-Afghan negotiations that lead to a political settlement;and,a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire.During this reporting period,the ANDSF,which bears the brunt of the fighting in Afghanistan,continued to improve its ability to fight the insurgents.The ANDSF engaged in the most hard-fought winter campaign since 2002.Despite the high operational tempo,the United States and the Afghan government have gone to unprecedented lengths to limit civilian casualties.The ANDSF and Coalition focused on counter-network operations against the Taliban and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Khorasan(ISIS-K).These operations inflicted heavy losses on militants and prevented these groups from reaching their objectives.Cooperation and coordination between U.S.Forces in Afghanistan(USFOR-A)and the ANDSF reached unprecedented levels as U.S.advisers synchronized CT and TAA efforts with ANDSF campaign objectives.Key Afghan and U.S.senior leaders met weekly to share intelligence,prioritize objectives,allocate assets,and coordinate operations.These initiatives resulted in a more focused,successful military campaign.The NATO Resolute Support Missions Combined Security Transition Command Afghanistan(CSTC-A)adjusted its advisory programs and took advantage of the deployment of the 2nd U.S.Security Force Assistance Brigade(SFAB),which enabled the Command to send advisors to more 2 locations to work with the ANDSF,including in districts where the Coalition did not have a large presence.Terrorist and insurgent groups continue to challenge Afghan,U.S.,and Coalition forces.During this reporting period,ISIS-K made territorial gains in eastern Afghanistan.Regionally the group continues to evade,counter,and resist sustained CT pressure.While ISIS-K remains operationally limited to South and Central Asia,the group harbors intentions to attack international targets.Al-Qaida(AQ)and Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent(AQIS)routinely support,train,work,and operate with Taliban fighters and commanders.AQ maintains an enduring interest in attacking U.S.forces and Western targets.Even if a successful political settlement with the Taliban emerges from ongoing talks,AQ,ISIS-K,and some unknown number of Taliban hardliners will constitute a substantial threat to the Afghan government and its citizens,as well as to the United States and its Coalition partners.This enduring terrorist threat will require the United States,the international community,and the ANDSF to maintain a robust CT capability for the foreseeable future.Despite elevated levels of violence and heavy losses,ANDSF recruitment and retention outpaced attrition for the first time in several reporting periods.The ANDSF increased its offensive operations and reduced or consolidated static checkpoints.The Afghan Special Security Forces(ASSF)curbed the misuse of forces in defensive positions,met growth milestones,and increased the number of independent,offensive operations.Finally,the Afghan government instituted a number of leadership changes that are helping move the ANDSF towards becoming a more professional force.However,the ANDSF will continue to require sustained TAA and financial support to overcome shortfalls.The ANDSF struggles to maintain,account for,and distribute equipment and material throughout the country,properly manage facilities,and adhere to strict training and reset cycles.While the ANDSF can secure population centers,provide security for elections,and control major ground lines of communication,the conventional Afghan security forces require persistent TAA,and the ASSF needs fires,lift,and intelligence,surveillance,and reconnaissance(ISR)support to maintain peak combat effectiveness.The Commander USFOR-A continues to improve the ability of his forces to implement their two missions:TAA and CT.He eliminated unnecessary overhead in Afghanistan in order to reduce waste and focus energy on supporting the ANDSF in a more narrowly defined military campaign.Together,the new operational design and the current U.S.military footprint represent the most efficient use of small numbers and resources to generate combat power and battlefield effects since the opening year of the war in Afghanistan.3 SECTION 1 STRATEGY AND OBJECTIVES The vital national interest driving the South Asia Strategy is to protect the U.S.homeland and U.S.citizens and interests overseas from threats originating from South Asia.The principal goal is a durable and inclusive political settlement that ends the war in Afghanistan and mitigates the terrorist threat in the region.The U.S.conditions-based strategy,punctuated by an increase in military pressure on Taliban commanders,has helped set the conditions for Taliban leadership to initiate peace negotiations with the United States.At the time of the writing of this report,the United States is actively engaged in negotiations with a delegation from the Taliban and,separately,with representatives of the Afghan Government.These talks,led by Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation(SRAR)Zalmay Khalilzad,are an important step towards ending the war in Afghanistan.Reinforcing Operation FREEDOMS SENTINEL(OFS)remains a priority for U.S.Central Command(USCENTCOM)since release of the South Asia Strategy.This prioritization has allowed the Department of Defense(DoD)to shift much-needed resources and enablers from Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq and Syria to OFS and the NATO Resolute Support Mission(RSM)to Train,Advise,and Assist(TAA)the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces(ANDSF).The United States currently maintains approximately 14,000 military personnel in Afghanistan under OFS,approximately 8,500 of whom participate in the RS mission.These personnel maintain a presence primarily at bases in Kabul and Bagram with regional hubs in Laghman and Nangarhar Province in the east,Kandahar Province in the south,Herat Province in the west,Helmand in the southwest,Paktiya in the southeast,and Balkh Province in the north.Our strategy in Afghanistan is conditions-based;our commanders on the ground continually evaluate the current conditions and make recommendations on appropriate force levels.1 The presence of U.S.forces makes possible the execution of two well-defined and complementary mission-sets:the NATO-led TAA mission in support of ANDSF development,and the additional authorities and enablers provided by OFS to partner with the ANDSF to defeat Taliban insurgents,al-Qaida(AQ),and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-Khorasan Province(ISIS-K).The RS and OSF mission sets work together to protect U.S.interests in Afghanistan and its region.1.1 U.S.STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN The DoD approach to implementation of the South Asia Strategy can be described by the R4+S conceptReinforce,Realign,Regionalize,Reconcile,and Sustain.Reinforce:The reinforce section of the strategy calls for U.S.and international funding commitments to sustain ongoing ANDSF combat operations and implementation of President Ghanis ANDSF roadmap.U.S.and Coalition partners remain committed to sourcing the vast majority of the RS TAA personnel and funding requirements.The continued international support reinforces a strong message of Coalition unity to the Taliban and other regional spoilers.1 Current and projected U.S.force presence submits in accordance with Section 1216 of H.R.114-270,which accompanied H.R.1735 of the NDAA for FY 2016(P.L.114-92).4 Realign:The South Asia Strategy calls for the realignment of U.S.military and civilian assistance and political outreach to target key areas under Afghan Government control.The strategy cites the proper alignment of U.S.and Afghan forces as a key to improved security.The push to realign authorities,resources,and the ANDSF continued to progress on schedule during this reporting period.During the first year of the South Asia Strategy,this realignment consisted chiefly of a U.S.shift in resources(lethal and non-lethal)from outside of Afghanistan into theater.Beginning in the fall of 2018,however,this realignment increasingly took the form of force and materiel optimization.Regionalize:Regional efforts aim to expand burden sharing,neutralize potential spoilers to U.S.and Coalition efforts,limit threats to the United States and our allies and partners,and develop and support a durable political settlement in Afghanistan.The South Asia strategy prioritizes regional engagement to limit hedging against the Afghan Government and create an international consensus for peace.Pakistan,in particular,must play a key role in a peaceful resolution to the war in Afghanistan.Reconcile:The primary goal of the South Asia Strategy is a durable and inclusive political settlement to the war in Afghanistan.The current military campaign increases military pressure on the Taliban and complements ongoing diplomatic efforts by the United States,Afghanistan,and our international partners.During this reporting period,U.S.representatives met with a Taliban delegation in Doha and with a group of Minister and Deputy Minister-level Afghan Government officials in Kabul to discuss elements of a peace deal.The next step in the process must be an intra-Afghan dialogue in which Taliban and Afghan delegations meet together directly.Sustain:The South Asia Strategy replaced a rigid timeline with a focus on achieving specific U.S.objectives at sustainable costs.The strategy seeks to maximize fiscal,military,and political return on investment,and to decrease levels of U.S.and international investment over time.Efforts to achieve a sustainable political outcome in Afghanistan must be feasible.The United States and NATO will work to promote Afghan self-sufficiency across the security,political,and economic spheres;over the long run,such advances will make possible a steady reduction in the Afghan Governments reliance on international support.1.2 U.S.OBJECTIVES IN AFGHANISTAN The United States has a single vital national interest in Afghanistan:to prevent it from becoming a safe-haven from which terrorist groups can plan and execute attacks against the U.S.homeland,U.S.citizens,and our interests and allies abroad.Our ultimate goal in Afghanistan is a negotiated political settlement between the Afghan Government