麦格理-中国-房地产行业-中国房地产业：抓住转折点-2019.1.8-27页.pdfVIP免费

Pleaserefertopage25forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsitewww.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.8January2019ChinaEQUITIESValuationsyettoreflectrelaxationSource:NBS,Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,January2019Marketshareoftop50developersSource:CRIC,MacquarieResearch,January2019RelatedpublicationsChinaProperty-Timetopickqualitystocks(23Jul2018)LongforGroupHoldings-Steadyknightwithshiningarmour(25Jul2018)LongforGroupHoldings-Readytowinthebattle(20Aug2018)ShimaoProperty-Enteringsecondstageofrecovery(18Jul2018)ShimaoProperty(813HK)-Targettooutperform(10Dec2018)ChinaJinmao(817HK)-Awinnerinthestorm(19Nov2018)ChinaJinmao(817HK)-Differentiatedmodel,differentiatedvalue(26Nov2018)AnalystsMacquarieCapitalLimitedKelvinTam,CFA+85239221181kelvin.tam@macquarie.comDavidNg,CFA+85239221291david.ng@macquarie.comNicholasTing+85239221398nicholas.ting@macquarie.comSophieWang+85239223572sophie.wang@macquarie.comChinapropertysectorCatchtheturningpointKeypointsThetightestpolicyisbehinduswhilerelaxationisnotyetinthepriceNationalsalesseeinghealthymoderationTopdevelopers’marketshareshouldgrow,withdecentsalesgrowthTightestpolicybehindus.WearepositiveontheChinapropertysectorin2019.Policyriskislowerthanlastyear,asthephysicalhousingmarketisweakening,withsluggishsalesgrowthandmildpricecorrection.Indeed,wesawpolicyandmortgagestabilisationinOctober2018andanticipateamildrelaxationin2019.Weexpect:(1)fine-tuningofmeasuresrelatedtopricecaps,resalerestrictionsandotherdistortivemeasures;(2)alowchanceofnationwideloosening;and,(3)nomoredrastictightening.ThecreditenvironmentshouldalsoimprovegraduallyafterthefirstunconditionalRRRcutsinceMarch2016.Weexpectnationalsalesvolumegrowthtobenegative(~0-5%)for2019withweakYoYmomentuminthefirsthalfandapick-upinthesecond.Themoreaccommodativepolicyshouldhelpshortenthetimeforrecoveryofbuyers’sentimentandsalesmomentum.Salesvaluegrowthshouldslowgraduallyfromthehighbasein2018;asharpcontractionisunlikely.Weexpecttier-2citiesandleadingtier-3citiestoou...