联合国粮农组织-2019年世界粮食安全和营养状况报告（英文）-2019.7-239页.pdf

FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLDTHE STATE OF SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNSDEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO.Young woman selling fruit at a street market.COVER PHOTOGRAPH Shutterstock/Valeriya AnufriyevaThis flagship publication is part of THE STATE OF THE WORLD series of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.Required citation:FAO,IFAD,UNICEF,WFP and WHO.2019.The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019.Safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns.Rome,FAO.Licence:CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),the International Fund for Agricultural Development(IFAD),the United Nations Childrens Fund(UNICEF),the World Food Programme(WFP)or the World Health Organization(WHO)concerning the legal or development status of any 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be submitted to:copyrightfao.org.ISSN 2663-8061Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsRome,20192019SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNSFOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLD THE STATE OF|ii|CONTENTSFOREWORD viiMETHODOLOGY xACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xi ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS xiiiKEY MESSAGES xivEXECUTIVE SUMMARY xviPART 1 FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION AROUND THE WORLD IN 2019 11.1 Recent trends in hunger and food insecurity 31.2 Progress towards global nutrition targets 271.3 Towards an integrated understanding of food security and nutrition for health and well-being 421.4 Conclusions 46PART 2 SUSTAINED ESCAPES FROM FOOD INSECURITY AND MALNUTRITION IN THE FACE OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS 492.1 Economic slowdowns and downturns and their impact on food security and nutrition 512.2 Commodity dependence and its relevance for food security and nutrition 612.3 Nexus between economic growth,poverty,and food security and nutrition:the role of inequality 792.4 Policies for achieving sustainable escapes from food insecurity and malnutrition in the context of economic slowdowns and downturns 1022.5 Conclusions 118ANNEXES 121ANNEX 1AStatistical tables to Part 1 122ANNEX 1BMethodological notes to statistical tables 148ANNEX 2 Methodologies Part 1 159ANNEX 3PoU change point definitions,methodology and country lists 165ANNEX 4Economic growth and change in PoU between 2011 and 2017 169ANNEX 5The main drivers of crisis-level acute food insecurity in 2018 176ANNEX 6Commodity dependence definitions and country lists 178ANNEX 7Glossary 185NOTES 191|iii|TABLES,FIGURES AND BOXES TABLES 1 Prevalence of undernourishment (PoU)in the world,20052018 82 Number of undernourished people in the world,20052018 93 Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity,and severe food insecurity only,measured with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale,20142018 154 Number of people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity,and severe food insecurity only,measured with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale,20142018 185 Association between food insecurity and various forms of malnutrition:cross-country analysis based on national data 446 Association between food insecurity and overweight or obesity in different age groups:micro-level data analysis from selected countries 457 Association between household food insecurity,child stunting and wasting,and anaemia in women of reproductive age:micro-level data analysis from selected countries 468 Economic shocks were significant secondary and tertiary drivers of food crises in 2018 609 High levels of commodity-export and-import dependence negatively affect food security 6710 Government spending on social and health sectors and UHC coverage in high commodity-dependent countries 7611 Coping strategies,their availability in times of economic slowdowns and downturns and possible negative effects 7812 Multisectoral policies for reducing poverty,and the constraints that must be overcome to improve food security and nutrition 116A1.1 Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs):Prevalence of undernourishment,moderate or severe food insecurity,selected forms of malnutrition,exclusive breastfeeding and low birthweight 122A1.2 Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs):Number of people who are affected by undernourishment,moderate or severe food insecurity and selected forms of malnutrition;number of infants exclusively breastfed and number of babies born with low birthweight 135A2.1 Definition of variables and sources 160A2.2 Definition of variables and sources 162A2.3 Results 162A2.4 Malnutrition indicators by age/sex class (dependent variables)163A2.5 Independent variables 164A3.1 Countries with an increase in PoU change point corresponding to economic slowdowns or downturns,years 20112017 166A4.1 Descriptive statistics of PoU and economic growth between 2011 and 2017 172A4.2 Regression of the change in PoU and economic growth between 2011 and 2017 173A4.3 Regression of the change in PoU between 2011 and 2017 and the three drivers of PoU increase 174A4.4a Estimated coefficients of the regressions between the change in PoU(between 2011 and 2017)and the three drivers of PoU drivers regressed separately for each income group 175A4.4b Estimated coefficients of the regressions between the change in PoU(between 2011 and 2017)and the three drivers of PoU drivers regressed together for each income group 175A5.1 Countries and territories with food crises in correspondence with economic shocks,2018 176A6.1 Definition of country commodity-export and commodity-import dependence 179A6.2 Countries and territories by typology of primary commodity dependence(19952017)179A6.3 Countries with economic slowdowns or downturns in correspondence to an increase in PoU change point and/or affected by food crises 180 FIGURES 1 The number of undernourished people in the world has been on the rise since 2015,and is back to levels seen in 20102011 62 Undernourishment is rising rapidly in Western Africa 10TABLES,FIGURES AND BOXES|iv|3 Undernourishment increases sharply in countries affected by conflict in sub-Saharan Africa 104 Droughts are one of the factors behind the recent increase in undernourishment in sub-Saharan Africa 115 Western Asia is the only subregion in Asia where undernourishment is on the rise 126 Undernourishment is on the rise in Western Asian countries affected by popular uprisings in the recent past 127 Increasing undernourishment in South American countries is putting upward pressure on the Latin America and the Caribbean regional average 138 The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela shows a significant increase in the prevalence of undernourishment in recent years 139 Even though Asia still predominates,more than thirty percent of the undernourished in the world live in Africa 1410 Over the past five years(20142018),total levels of food insecurity have been on the rise at the global level,mainly due to increases in Africa and Latin America 1911 The concentration and distribution of food insecurity by severity differs greatly across the regions of the world 2012 As the country level of income falls,the prevalence of food insecurity increases and so does the proportion of severe food insecurity over the total 2113 The numbers of undernourished and of food insecure have been on the rise in recent years,after a decade-long decline in extreme poverty and undernourishment 2214 In every continent,the prevalence of food insecurity is slightly higher for women than for men,with the largest differences found in Latin America(20162018 three-year averages)2315 Progress on malnutrition is too slow to achieve the 2025 and 2030 global nutrition targets 2916 Stunting,wasting and overweight still impact the lives of far too many children under 5 years 3017 Overweight prevalence increases over the life course and is highest in adulthood 3318 Across all regions,the prevalence of overweight is increasing in all age groups,with particularly steep trends among adults and school-age children,including adolescents 3419 The increase in prevalence of obesity between 2000 and 2016 has been even larger than that of overweight 3520 The gap between urban and rural areas in mean body mass index is closing 3621 Examples of policies and programmes aimed at preventing or reducing overweight and obesity 3922 Real GDP per capita growth has been uneven since the 20082009 sharp global downturn 5323 Consecutive years of economic slowdowns and downturns since 2011 in many subregions 5424 PoU increasing change points associated with the occurrence of economic slowdowns and downturns 5525 Low-income countries face higher increases in hunger as a result of decreases in economic growth(between 2011 and 2017)5826 Commodity prices(though high)fell year on year from 2011 to 2016 6327 Many low-and middle-income countries are high commodity-dependent countries 6528 Between 2003 and 2017,high commodity-dependent countries faced steeper declines in economic growth compared to low commodity-dependent countries for those with rising hunger the situation was even worse 6629 Potential negative impacts of international commodity price reductions on food security and nutrition in commodity-dependent economies:transmission channels 6930 Falling commodity prices triggered a devaluation of the Colombian and Chilean currencies 7131 Prevalence of undernourishment(PoU)and child stunting rates are correlated with extreme poverty at the country level 8732 High levels of child stunting are not only found in the poorest households 8833 Most of the worlds extreme poor now live in Africa,but the majority of the worlds hungry and children affected by stunting live in Asia 8934 High and persistent levels of income inequality in low-and middle-income countries 9235 Income inequality is rising in nearly half the countries of the world,including in several low-income countries and some middle-income countries 9336 Some countries have reduced income inequality,while for others it has worsened 9437 Inequality in the distribution of agricultural land is high in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa 98 BOXES 1 Two indicators for SDG Target 2.1 to monitor progress on ending hunger and ensuring access to food for all 42 Revised series of estimates of the prevalence of undernourishment and projections for 2018 73 Computing FIES-based estimates so that they are globally comparable 164 How do estimates of food insecurity compare to other important indicators of human development?255 Different food security assessments for different objectives 266 Overweight and obesity and the effect of malnutrition throughout the life cycle 327 Risk factors for overweight and obesity in school-age children 388 Double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition in the context of humanitarian assistance 419 What are economic slowdowns and downturns?5210 Why did world hunger not rise during the global food and financial crises?5611 What is commodity dependence and how is it measured?6412 Economic slowdown and the cost of basic food in Colombia 7313 Explaining poverty and food security and nutrition trends in China and India:the pattern of growth and initial inequalities 8214 Addressing inequality in the context of economic growth in Brazil a way out of hunger and malnutrition 9515 Increasing opportunities for indigenous populations is key to nurturing their dietary diversity 10016 Gender dimensions of inequality in agriculture and rural areas 10117 Social protection is critical for food security and nutrition,especially during economic slowdowns and downturns 10518 Homegrown school feeding as a way to prevent undesirable coping strategies 10619 Boosting small-scale farming for diversification and market integration in Sao Tome and Principe,and Senegal 11120 Trade policy,food systems,and food security and nutrition 113|v|TAJIKISTANFresh Tajik puff cakes being prepared as part of a project supporting inclusive agriculture and food security init