能源化工专题（原油）：美国供需周报美油延续累库-20190612-中信期货-22页.pdf

投资咨询业务资格：投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【证监许可【20122012】669669 号号 能源化工能源化工 研究员：胡佳鹏 021-60812977 从业资格号：F3039655 投资咨询号：Z0013196 许俐 0755-83212745 从业资格号：F0271452 投资咨询号：Z0012283 桂晨曦 021-60812997 从业资格号：F3023159 投资咨询号：Z0013632 李青 021-60819914 从业资格号：F3056728 投资咨询号：Z0014122 联系人：杨家明 021-80365287 从业资格号：F3046931 颜鑫 021-80365289 从业资格号：F3048534 石飞 021-60812955 从业资格号：F3061043 2019 6-12 中信期货研究|能源化工专题（原油）中信期货研究|能源化工专题（原油）美国供需周报 美油延续累库 美国供需周报 美油延续累库 报告摘要 报告摘要 原油汽油馏分油 航空煤油 残余燃油 丙烷丙烯 其他油品 成品油总油品 库辛原油2206764-100042145928624294705192572096-20000200040006000800010000油品库存周变化（千桶）油品库存周变化（千桶）原油产量 原油进口 原油出口 炼厂加工PADD1加工PADD2加工PADD3加工PADD4加工PADD5加工PADD2进口PADD3进口-100-316-176126-16173-116877-94-385-500-400-300-200-1000100200300原油供需周变化（千桶/日）原油供需周变化（千桶/日）汽油产量 汽油进口 汽油出口 汽油需求馏分油产量馏分油进口馏分油出口馏分油需求成品油进口成品油出口成品油需求227-395-148436-16511-339981-45-3161674-5000500100015002000成品油供需周变化（千桶成品油供需周变化（千桶/日）日）数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）2/22 目录目录 报告摘要.1 周度汇总.3 1.1 原油供需.4 1.2 汽油供需.5 1.3 馏分油供需.6 2.1 库存汇总.7 2.2 原油库存.8 2.3 汽油库存.9 2.4 馏分油库存.10 3.1 炼厂加工量.11 3.2 产量汇总.12 3.3 需求汇总.13 4.1 原油进口.14 4.2 油品进口.15 4.3 油品出口.16 5.1 PADD1 区供需.17 5.2 PADD2 区供需.18 5.3 PADD3 区供需.19 5.4 PADD4 区供需.20 5.5 PADD5 区供需.21 免责声明.22 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）3/22 周度汇总周度汇总 产量产量进口进口出口出口炼厂加工炼厂加工商业库存商业库存库辛库存库辛库存本土产量本土产量阿拉斯加阿拉斯加炼厂开工率炼厂开工率现值123007611312217064485470529401180048093周变化-100-316-17612622062096-10021季度走势产量产量进口进口出口出口隐含需求隐含需求总库存总库存PADD1B库存PADD1B库存成品库存成品库存组分库存组分库存汽油出率汽油出率现值102767005319877234913332642269021222360.2%周变化227-395-148436764179-55613200.9%季度走势产量产量进口进口出口出口隐含需求隐含需求库存库存PADD1B库存PADD1B库存ULSD库存ULSD库存取暖油库存取暖油库存馏分油出率馏分油出率现值523912311374368128372415361146211019230.7%周变化-16511-339981-1000724-12159-1.2%季度走势原油原油汽油汽油馏分油馏分油航空煤油航空煤油残余燃油残余燃油丙烷丙烯丙烷丙烯其他油品其他油品SPRSPR总油品总油品现值485470 234913 1283723916329252711343070766448181317183周变化2206764-10004214592862429409257季度走势原油原油汽油汽油馏分油馏分油航空煤油航空煤油残余燃油残余燃油丙烷丙烯丙烷丙烯燃料乙醇燃料乙醇精炼汽油精炼汽油常规汽油常规汽油现值1230010250523919113882177109633216929周变化-100131-165117-3315211220季度走势原油原油汽油汽油馏分油馏分油航煤航煤残余燃油残余燃油丙烷丙烯丙烷丙烯其他油品其他油品成品油成品油炼厂加工炼厂加工现值1959698774368178028090639122112317064周变化236436981-3021688-161674126季度走势原油原油汽油汽油馏分油馏分油航煤航煤残余燃油残余燃油丙烷丙烯丙烷丙烯其他油品其他油品成品油成品油总油品总油品现值31225312112113011012153847307852周变化-176-148122122-8-63120-316-492季度走势原油原油汽油汽油馏分油馏分油航空煤油航空煤油残余燃油残余燃油丙烷丙烯丙烷丙烯成品油成品油原油净进口原油净进口成品净进口成品净进口现值761170012313925914925614489-2169周变化-316-39511-1920642-45-140271季度走势原油原油加拿大加拿大沙特沙特委内瑞拉委内瑞拉墨西哥墨西哥哥伦比亚哥伦比亚伊拉克伊拉克厄瓜多尔厄瓜多尔尼日利亚尼日利亚现值76113683425087443144121334周变化-316-183170364-307-134-143-32季度走势出出口口进进口口进进口口原原油油汽汽油油馏馏分分油油库库存存供供应应需需求求数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）4/22 1.1 1.1 原油供需原油供需 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/0109/0809/1509/2220000025000030000035000040000045000050000055000060000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29原油商业库存原油商业库存五年均值201920181015202530354001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29原油库存可用天数原油库存可用天数五年均值201920180100002000030000400005000060000700008000001/0601/1301/2001/2702/0302/1002/1702/24库欣原油库存库欣原油库存五年均值201920186000006200006400006600006800007000002016/092016/112017/012017/032017/052017/072017/092017/112018/012018/032018/052018/072018/092018/112019/012019/032019/05战略储备库存战略储备库存1300014000150001600017000180001900001/0601/1301/2001/2702/0302/1002/1702/24炼厂加工量炼厂加工量五年均值20192018020040060080010007000900011000130002016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/03原油产量原油产量原油产量全美钻井平台数600065007000750080008500900095001000001/0601/1301/2001/2702/0302/1002/1702/24原油进口量原油进口量五年均值201920180500100015002000250030003500400001/0601/1301/2001/2702/0302/1002/1702/24原油出口量原油出口量五年均值20192018数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）5/22 1.21.2 汽油汽油供需供需 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/0109/0809/1509/2220000021000022000023000024000025000026000027000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油库存汽油库存五年均值20192018202224262830323401/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油库存可用天数汽油库存可用天数五年均值201920181500020000250003000035000400004500001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29成品汽油库存成品汽油库存五年均值2019201816000017000018000019000020000021000022000023000024000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油组分库存汽油组分库存五年均值20192018800085009000950010000105001100001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油产量汽油产量五年均值2019201875008000850090009500100001050001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油隐含需求汽油隐含需求五年均值201920180200400600800100012001400160001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油进口汽油进口五年均值20192018020040060080010001200140001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油出口汽油出口五年均值20192018数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）6/22 1.31.3 馏分油馏分油供需供需 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/0109/0809/1509/2210000011000012000013000014000015000016000017000018000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29馏分油库存（不含馏分油库存（不含SPR）五年均值201920182025303540455055606501/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29馏分油库存可用天数馏分油库存可用天数五年均值2019201810000011000012000013000014000015000016000017000018000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29柴油库存柴油库存五年均值2019201850007000900011000130001500017000190002100001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29取暖油库存取暖油库存五年均值2019201835004000450050005500600001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29馏分油产量馏分油产量五年均值20192018250030003500400045005000550001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29馏分油隐含需求馏分油隐含需求五年均值20192018010020030040050060070001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29馏分油进口馏分油进口五年均值20192018050010001500200001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29馏分油出口馏分油出口五年均值20192018数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）7/22 2.12.1 库存库存汇总汇总 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/0109/0809/1509/2209/2980000090000010000001100000120000013000001400000150000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29总油品库存总油品库存五年均值2019201820000025000030000035000040000045000050000055000060000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29原油库存原油库存五年均值2019201820000021000022000023000024000025000026000027000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油库存汽油库存五年均值2019201810000011000012000013000014000015000016000017000018000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29馏分油库存馏分油库存五年均值20192018300003500040000450005000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29航空煤油库存航空煤油库存五年均值201920182000025000300003500040000450005000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29残余燃油库存残余燃油库存五年均值2019201802000040000600008000010000012000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29丙烷丙烷/丙烯库存丙烯库存五年均值2019201820000022000024000026000028000030000032000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29其他油品库存其他油品库存五年均值20192018数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）8/22 2.22.2 原油库存原油库存 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/0109/0809/15-20000-15000-10000-500005000100001500001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29原油库存周度变化原油库存周度变化五年均值20192018050001000015000200002500001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD1区原油库存区原油库存五年均值2019201850000700009000011000013000015000017000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD2区原油库存区原油库存五年均值2019201810000015000020000025000030000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD3区原油库存区原油库存五年均值20192018100001500020000250003000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD4区原油库存区原油库存五年均值2019201840000450005000055000600006500001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD5区原油库存区原油库存五年均值201920182000003000004000005000006000002013/092014/022014/072014/122015/052015/102016/032016/082017/012017/062017/112018/042018/092019/02原油商业库存原油商业库存-1500-1000-50005001000150020002500原油库存分区周变化原油库存分区周变化数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）9/22 2.32.3 汽油库存汽油库存 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/01-10000-5000050001000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油库存周度变化汽油库存周度变化五年均值20192018400005000060000700008000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD1区汽油库存区汽油库存五年均值2019201840000450005000055000600006500001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD2区汽油库存区汽油库存五年均值201920186500070000750008000085000900009500001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD3区汽油库存区汽油库存五年均值20192018500060007000800090001000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD4区汽油库存区汽油库存五年均值20192018200002500030000350004000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD5区汽油库存区汽油库存五年均值201920181500002000002500003000002013/092014/022014/072014/122015/052015/102016/032016/082017/012017/062017/112018/042018/092019/02汽油库存汽油库存-2000-1500-1000-5000500100015002000汽油库存分区变化汽油库存分区变化数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）10/22 2.42.4 馏分油库存馏分油库存 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/25-10000-500005000100001500001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29馏分油库存周度变化馏分油库存周度变化五年均值2019201802000040000600008000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD1区馏分油库存区馏分油库存五年均值20192018200002500030000350004000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD2区馏分油库存区馏分油库存五年均值201920183000035000400004500050000550006000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD3区馏分油库存区馏分油库存五年均值20192018200025003000350040004500500001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD4区馏分油库存区馏分油库存五年均值20192018100001100012000130001400015000160001700001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD5区馏分油库存区馏分油库存五年均值20192018500001000001500002000002013/092014/022014/072014/122015/052015/102016/032016/082017/012017/062017/112018/042018/092019/02馏分油库存馏分油库存-1500-1000-50005001000馏分油库存分区变化馏分油库存分区变化数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）11/22 3.13.1 炼厂加工量炼厂加工量 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/0109/081300014000150001600017000180001900001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29炼厂加工量炼厂加工量五年均值2019201870758085909510001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29炼厂开工率炼厂开工率五年均值20192018600700800900100011001200130001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD1区炼厂加工量区炼厂加工量五年均值201920182500300035004000450001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD2区炼厂加工量区炼厂加工量五年均值20192018500060007000800090001000001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD3区炼厂加工量区炼厂加工量五年均值2019201840045050055060065070075001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD4区炼厂加工量区炼厂加工量五年均值201920182000210022002300240025002600270001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29PADD5区炼厂加工量区炼厂加工量五年均值20192018-150-100-50050100150200炼厂加工量分区变化炼厂加工量分区变化数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）12/22 3.23.2 产量汇总产量汇总 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/0109/087000800090001000011000120001300001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29本土本土48周原油产量周原油产量五年均值2019201830035040045050055060001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29阿拉斯加州原油产量阿拉斯加州原油产量五年均值2019201885009000950010000105001100001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽油产量汽油产量五年均值2019201835004000450050005500600001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29柴油产量柴油产量五年均值2019201813001400150016001700180019002000210001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29航空煤油产量航空煤油产量五年均值20192018010020030040050060070001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29残余燃油产量残余燃油产量五年均值201920181000120014001600180020002200240001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29丙烷丙烷/丙烯产量丙烯产量五年均值201920181.51.71.92.12.32.501/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29汽柴比汽柴比五年均值20192018数据来源：EIA 中信期货研究部 中信期货研究中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告（原油）能源化工专题报告（原油）13/22 3.33.3 需求汇总需求汇总 03/0303/1003/1703/2403/3104/0704/1404/2104/2805/0505/1205/1905/2606/0206/0906/1606/2306/3007/0707/1407/2107/2808/0408/1108/1808/2509/0109/0809/1509/2212000140001600018000200002200001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29原油隐含需求原油隐含需求五年均值2019201815000160001700018000190002000021000220002300001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104/2105/1206/0206/2307/1408/0408/2509/1510/0610/2711/1712/0812/29成品油隐含需求成品油隐含需求五年均值2019201875008000850090009500100001050001/0601/2702/1703/1003/3104