摩根士丹利-全球-航运业-2019年全球航运市场展望-2019.2.15-98页.pdf

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.February 15,2019 2019 Shipping Market Outlook Maritime Industries M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Global Morgan Stanley&Co.LLC Fotis Giannakoulis Equity Analyst+1 212-761-3026 Max Yaras Research Associate+1 212-761-6071 Max.Y February 15,2019 08:01 AM GMTMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.February 15,2019 Whats Inside?1.Stock Views 2.IMO 2020 Overview 3.Crude and Product Tanker 4.Dry Bulk Market 5.LNG Shipping 6.LPG Shipping 7.Containership 8.2018 Market Review 9.Disclosures 9 19 25 44 53 63 72 79 83 Table of Contents Whats Changed?We are upgrading NVGS to OW and remain OW EURN,DHT,STNG,CMRE,TGP,GLOP,LNG,GLNG,HLNG,HMLP.We are also downgrading SBLK and TNP to EW.See Stock Views.We take a deep dive on IMO 2020,including key debates and returns of scrubbers by vessel type and company.See IMO 2020 Overview.Crude tankers face near-term headwinds in 2019 from OPEC cuts and a heavy newbuild delivery schedule,but the 2020+outlook remains positive.See Crude and Product Tanker Outlook.We see the dry bulk market as entering a period of structurally weak demand as major commodity trades of iron ore and coal move ex-growth.See Dry Bulk Market Outlook.LNG shipping is set to remain tight through 2020,but we recently lowered our long-term shipping rate on a growing orderbook and slowing post 2020 liquefaction capacity additions.See LNG Shipping Outlook.LPG shipping stands to benefit from the rapid growth in US NGL production and new terminal capacity additions leading to rising LPG exports.See LPG Shipping.We see a slow improvement in containership fundamentals despite trade tensions and concerns surrounding global growth as supply growth declines below the level of global GDP next year.See Containership Outlook.EURNOWOW$10$10.55%TNPOWEW$4$4.00%STNGOWOW$27$25-7%ASCEWEW$8$7-13%TNKEWEW$1.3$1.2-8%FROEWEW$6$5.5-8%NVGSEWOW$13$148%SBLKOWEW$15$9.5-37%SALTEWEW$8.5$4.5-47%GOGLEWEW$9.5$6-37%GNKEWEW$17$9-47%SBEWEW$3.9$1.8-55%EGLEEWEW$6.5$5-23%DSXEWEW$4.5$3.5-22%NMMUWUW$2$0.75-63%DLNGEWEW$6$3.0-45%CMREOWOW$8.0$7.5-6%SFLEWEW$14.5$13.5-7%Chg to PT New Price Target Ticker New Rating Old Rating Old Price Target 2019 Maritime Outlook February 15,2019 3 How to Play It?Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimates We are constructive on the near-term outlook for LNG carriers and expect crude,product,and LPG carriers to strengthen in 2020.Yet,we see the dry bulk market as challenged.LPG Carriers are expected to strengthen by end-2019 as US NGL output rises and LPG exports bottlenecks dissipate.The Crude and Product Tanker markets face headwinds in 2019,but we expect a strong turnaround in 2020.LNG shipping is expected to remain tight through 2020.We are modestly positive on Containerships despite macro uncertainties,given decelerating post-2019 fleet growth.The Dry Bulk demand is in structural slowdown,owners will need to practice supply discipline.LPG Shipping Crude Tankers Product Tankers LNG Shipping Container Ships Dry Bulk Sector RatingPositivePositivePositivePositiveNeutralNegativeAvg Sector Return39%22%19%21%11%6%Top PicksNVGSEURN,DHTSTNGGLNG,TGP,GLOPCMRESBLK(E-W)Sector Outlook Expect the LPG shipping market to gradually improve in the coming years as rising U.S.shale output and increased terminal capacity drives higher exports.Expect weak rates in 2019 due to an undersupplied oil market.We see a strong rebound in 2020,as demand increases from IMO 2020,US exports rise and OPEC volumes return.Product tankers face lower flows in 2019,along with pressure from lower crude rates.However,IMO 2020 should boost product tanker demand beginning in 2H19.Expect rates to remain elevated in 2019-20 on visible supply growth and substantial new capacity additions.Yet a rising orderbook could threaten long-term rates.We expect gradual improvement as fleet growth decelerates below global GDP,helping the market to slowly tighten post-2019.We believe the dry bulk shipping market is entering into a period of structural slow down as seaborne demand for both iron ore and coal have moved ex-growth.2019 Maritime Outlook February 15,2019 4 We are Upgrading NVGS to OW and remain OW EURN,DHT,STNG,CMRE,TGP,GLOP,LNG,GLNG,HLNG,and HMLP Source:Thomson Reuters,Morgan Stanley Research estimates NTM NTM Annual DPS Yield Stdv DHT$4.06OWOW$6.0$6.00%$0.153.7%52%39%101%$8.097%$2.0-51%$5.968%92%EURN.K$7.98OWOW$10.0$10.55%$0.121.5%33%33%100%$14.075%$5.0-37%$10.576%92%STNG.K$19.39OWOW$27.0$25.0-7%$0.402.1%31%56%88%$40.0106%$10.0-48%$28.568%94%ASC$5.49EWEW$8.0$7.0-13%$0.040.7%28%44%82%$11.0100%$4.0-27%$8.564%85%TNP$3.45OWEW$4.0$4.000%$0.205.8%22%37%106%$7.0103%$1.0-71%$3.891%98%NAT$2.20EWEW$2.5$2.500%$0.041.8%15%62%97%$3.559%$1.0-55%$2.686%93%TNK$1.05EWEW$1.3$1.2-8%$0.021.8%16%52%61%$2.5138%$0.1-90%$2.053%84%FRO$5.69EWEW$6.0$5.5-8%$0.000.0%-3%51%100%$10.076%$2.0-65%$5.5103%101%SBLK.O$7.99OWEW$15.0$9.5-37%$0.000.0%19%47%75%$18.0125%$6.0-25%$12.763%84%DSX$3.07EWEW$4.5$3.5-22%$0.000.0%14%40%71%$6.5112%$1.5-51%$4.963%78%GNK$7.94EWEW$17.0$9.0-47%$0.000.0%13%47%61%$15.089%$5.0-37%$14.854%70%GOGL.O$5.36EWEW$9.5$6.0-37%$0.000.0%12%42%83%$10.087%$3.0-44%$7.274%87%SB$1.61EWEW$3.9$1.8-55%$0.000.0%9%50%119%$3.086%$1.0-38%$1.5110%102%EGLE.O$4.63EWEW$6.5$5.0-23%$0.000.0%8%46%88%$8.073%$2.0-57%$5.781%89%SALT.K$4.50EWEW$8.5$4.5-47%$0.000.0%0%42%57%$10.0122%$2.0-56%$7.957%80%NMM$1.01UWUW$2.0$0.75-63%$0.022.0%-24%54%37%$1.549%$0.1-90%$2.050%74%ContainerCMRE.K$5.08OWOW$8.0$7.5-6%$0.407.9%56%35%$10.097%$3.0-41%NANANAShipsSSW$9.07UWUW$5.5$5.50%$0.505.5%-34%50%$13.043%$1.0-89%NANANALPGNVGS.K$10.04EWOW$13.0$14.08%$0.000.0%39%34%$18.079%$7.0-30%$10.992%96%SFL$12.59EWEW$14.5$13.5-7%$1.4011.1%18%24%$17.035%$6.0-52%DiversifiedTK$3.80UWUW$3.0$3.00%$0.225.8%-15%49%$8.0111%$1.0-74%TOO$1.32UWUW$1.0$1.00%$0.043.0%-21%51%$3.0127%$0.1-92%DLNG.K$2.52EWEW$5.5$3.0-45%$0.259.9%29%54%$6.0138%$2.0-21%$5.645%88%TGP$13.19OWOW$16.0$16.00%$0.614.6%26%32%$22.067%$8.0-39%$12.6104%101%GLOG.K$17.71EWEW$20.0$20.00%$0.583.3%16%39%$26.047%$12.0-32%$11.8150%112%GLOP.K$22.85OWOW$23.0$23.00%$2.169.5%10%26%$26.014%$13.0-43%$12.0190%125%LNG.A$66.00OWOW$75.0$75.00%$0.000.0%14%30%$120.082%$40.0-39%CQP.A$43.05EWEW$36.0$36.00%$2.716.3%-10%25%$45.05%$20.0-54%GLNG.O$22.77OWOW$31.0$31.00%$0.602.6%39%45%$60.0164%$15.0-34%$23.995%N/AGMLP.O$13.48EWEW$13.0$13.00%$1.6212.0%8%38%$18.034%$5.0-63%$8.6157%122%HLNGH.OLNKr40OWOWNKr60NKr60$0.00$0.102.0%48%45%NKr8059%NKr30-37%$7.462%82%HMLP.K$18.19OWOW$19.0$19.00%$1.769.7%14%25%$23.026%$13.0-29%$16.1111%108%Tanker Dry Bulk LNG Shipping LNGInfrastructure LNGInfrastructure Shipping NAV/Share P/NAV EV/Fleet Value Target/NAV Price-to-Bear Bear Case Total Return Bull Case Price-to-Bull Price Target Latest Close Old Rating New Rating Old PT%Chg to PT 2019 Maritime Outlook February 15,2019 5 Ratings and Price Target Revisions Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimates LPG Shipping Upgrading NVGS to OW;PT$14(from$13):We are upgrading NVGS to OW,driven by strong growth in US LPG exports as NGL supply is rising,new fractionation capacity comes online,and infrastructure constrains are being resolved.Crude and Tanker Shipping Downgrading TNP to EW;PT$4:We downgrade TNP to EW as the upcoming refinancing of the preferred stocks and high debt could erode the companys liquidity,favoring delevering instead of dividends or growth,even as the tanker market strengthens.EURN:OW;PT$10.5(from$10):We view EURNs steep NAV discount an opportunity to buy in theworlds largest tanker company and benefit from IMO 2020,rising US exports and return of OPEC production.Our$10.5 PT values the stock at NAV.Whats Changed STNG:OW;PT$25(from$27):While confidence in STNG has diminished significantly after a series of dilutive offerings and poor capital allocation results,it is the only liquid way to play the product tanker market in the verge of IMO 2020 and the stock trades at steep discount to NAV.ASC:EW;PT$7(from$8):We expect ASC to share in the product tanker market uplift associated with increased oil product flows from IMO 2020.Dry Bulk Shipping Downgrading SBLK to EW;PT$9.5(from$15):We are downgrading SBLK to EW on a challenged sector outlook as both iron ore and coal trades move ex-growth.However,SBLK remains the best positioned dry bulk shipping company,trading 35%below NAV while its scrubber investment is likely to pay off.Lowering Dry Bulk PTs:We are lowering SALT to$4.5(from$9),GOGL to$6(from$9.5),GNK to$9(from$17),SB to$1.8(from$3.9),EGLE to$5(from$6.5),DSX to$3.5(from$4.5),and NMM to$0.75(from$2).The reductions reflect our lowered spot rate assumptions and more tempered outlook for dry bulk fundamentals.LNG Shipping DLNG:EW;PT$3(from$5.5):We are lowering our PT to reflect the companys recent distribution cut,expecting the stock to continue to trade based on yield and at steep discount to its NAV due to its small market cap and limited trading volume Container Shipping&Diversified CMRE:OW;PT$7.5(from$8):We maintain conviction in CMRE,but are lowering our PT to reflect the rising equity risk premia.CMRE continues to pay a highly attractive 8.5%dividend,backed by growing earnings from long-term charters,a timely purchased fleet,and a low cost of debt.SFL:EW;PT$13.5(from$14.5):We are lowering our PT,expecting a double-digits dividend yield to reflect the rising equity risk premia.EURNOWOW$10$10.55%TNPOWEW$4$4.00%STNGOWOW$27$25-7%ASCEWEW$8$7-13%TNKEWEW$1.3$1.2-8%FROEWEW$6$5.5-8%NVGSEWOW$13$148%SBLKOWEW$15$9.5-37%SALTEWEW$8.5$4.5-47%GOGLEWEW$9.5$6-37%GNKEWEW$17$9-47%SBEWEW$3.9$1.8-55%EGLEEWEW$6.5$5-23%DSXEWEW$4.5$3.5-22%NMMUWUW$2$0.75-63%DLNGEWEW$6$3.0-45%CMREOWOW$8.0$7.5-6%SFLEWEW$14.5$13.5-7%Chg to PT New Price Target Ticker New Rating Old Rating Old Price Target 2019 Maritime Outlook February 15,2019 6 Upside/Downside to PTs Source:Thomson Reuters,Morgan Stanley Research estimates 52%33%31%28%22%15%16%-3%19%14%13%12%9%8%0%-24%56%-34%39%18%-15%-21%29%26%16%10%14%-10%39%8%52%14%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%DHTEURNSTNGASCNATTNPTNKFROGNKSBLKGOGLSBDSXEGLESALTNMMCMRESSWNVGSSFLTKTOOTGPDLNGGLOGGLOPLNGCQPGLNGGMLPHLNGHMLP%Upside/Downside to PTBullTotal ReturnBearDry BulkDiversifiedContainerLPGLNGShippingTankersLNGInfrastructure2019 Maritime Outlook February 15,2019 7 Key Assumptions We are constructive on tanker and LPG shipping rates increasing in 2020.Tanker rates are set remain weaken in 2019,but improve in 2020 due to IMO 2020.The Dry Bulk market is in structurally weak demand as iron ore and coal trades go ex-growth.LNG shipping is expected to remain tight through 2020 and then fall to midcycle levels.LPG carriers rates could strengthen in 2020 as US NGL production rises and LPG exports accelerate.We expect gradual improvement in Containership rates driven by slowing fleet growth.ScrubberSteam.ECAFuelCostEcoNon-Ecodaysdaysavail.$mmt/daymt/daydays%VLCC3.50506527010%100%Suezmax2.70323625011%98%Aframax2.50283224011%96%LR22.50293323512%94%LR12.25273022012%92%MR2.00222621013%90%Handy2.00202420013%88%Newcastlemax2.7541472709%100%Capesize2.50364127010%99%Post-Panamax2.25273126010%97%Kamsarmax2.23262925511%96%Panamax2.20252825011%94%Ultramax2.15222524012%93%Supramax2.10212423512%91%Handymax2.00202322013%90%Handysize1.90202220013%88%Dry BulkMS Key Scrubber AssumptionsFuel Cons.TankersDry Bulk LNG Carriers LPG Carriers ContainershipsBrentHSFO VLSFO SpreadVLCCMRCapesizeT/DFDEVLGC(9k TEU)$/bbl$/ton$/ton$/tonQuarterly1Q1924.016.09.060.022.228.058.03815962142Q1917.015.011.055.023.828.060.03945791853Q1917.016.512.070.026.328.062.54095931844Q1938.017.014.080.026.328.065.04256081841Q2042.018.010.080.029.630.065.03445942502Q2038.017.512.080.029.630.065.03445942503Q2038.016.512.080.029.630.065.03445942504Q2042.020.014.080.029.630.065.03445942501Q2142.018.010.065.036.231.065.04056052002Q2138.017.512.065.036.231.065.04056052003Q2138.016.512.065.036.231.065.04056052004Q2142.020.014.065.036.231.065.0405605200Long-Term37.017.515.065.036.232.065.0405605200Annually201823.312.316.480.618.328.071.5373575204201924.016.111.566.324.728.061.4402594192202040.018.012.080.029.630.065.0344594250202140.018.012.065.036.231.065.04056052005yr Avg34.414.612.250.035.627.965.1357565NA10yr Avg29.914.017.469.630.131.880.1455683NA15yr Avg43.717.437.4NA27.436.075.4412609NACharter RatesOil&Fuel PricesTankers Note:Rates for conventional vessels.Eco-ships and scrubber equipped vessels earn a premium based on our fuel consumption differentials and fuel price forecast Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimates 2019 Maritime Outlook February 15,2019 8 Source:Drewry,Alphaliner,Rystad,Clarksons,Morgan Stanley Research Dry Bulk LPG Shipping Crude Tankers Containerships LNG shipping Supply/Demand Fundamentals 3.2%5.7%4.2%3.7%3.6%3.8%2.4%0.4%4.9%3.8%2.8%3.2%3.8%3.7%3.5%3.5%3.5%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%201620172018201920202021Container throughputNominal Capacity GrowthGlobal GDP34(8)26 3 43 48 37 4 21 15 (20)(10)-10 20 30 40 50 6020162017201820192020Incremental VLCC DemandIncremental VLCC Supply6 15 31 37 35 40 21 25 42 30 34 38 -5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45201520162017201820192020Incremental Shipping Demand(#of vessels)Change in LNG Fleet(#of vessels)19.0%19.2%0.3%11.8%9.2%8.1%4.3%22.5%22.7%8.8%2.0%6.4%5.8%-0.9%50%60%70%80%90%100%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2015201620172018201920202021VLGC Ton-mile demandCBM supply-VLGCUtilizationVLGC Utilization6.2%1.7%1.8%2.0%2.1%4.1%2.9%2.3%2.4%1.6%84%83%83%82%83%82%82%83%83%84%84%85%85%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%201720182019E2020E2021EYoY growthDWT demandDWT supply-Total drybulkUtilizationCapacity Utilization2019 Maritime Outlook February 15,2019 9 Stock Views 2019 Maritime Outlook February 15,2019 10 MS Estimates vs Consensus:Source:Thomson Reuters,Morgan Stanley Research EPS20172018E2019E2020E2021E2022EGLNG.O(1.89)(1.10)(0.36)1.27 0.78 1.77 Consensus(2.01)(0.96)0.28 1.16 2.92 6.62 GMLP.O1.89 0.61 0.78 0.70 0.92 0.81 Consensus2.05 1.26 1.12 1.20 1.27 1.16 HLNGH.OL0.24 (0.01)0.35 0.57 0.33 0.67 Consensus0.26 0.21 0.44 0.60 0.76 TGP.N0.25 0.71 1.89 2.53 2.16 2.16 Consensus0.99 0.80 1.74 2.16 2.13 DLNG.N0.37 (0.09)0.45 0.62 0.71 0.82 Consensus0.78 0.34 0.24 0.41 0.61 HMLP.N1.33 1.98 1.63 1.69 1.83 1.94 Consensus1.17 2.01 1.71 1.75 1.86 GLOG.N(0.08)0.27 0.52 1.20 NAN